C olorado: B attleground S tate in P residential Y ear

Ciruli Associates

Colorado: Battleground State in Presidential Year

By

Floyd Ciruli

Data Sponsored by

Economic Development Council of Colorado

November 2007

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2007

1A Maintenance fund 71% 63%54%

1B Health bond 76 7161

1C Library bond 66 6360

1D Streets bond 82 7167

1E Parks bond 66 6161

1F Public buildings bond 64 5553

1G Cultural buildings bond 65 6155

1H BCH/DMNS bond 56 5652

1I Public safety bond 74 6863

Mean 68.9 63.258.4

Ciruli Associates Polls and Election Results

Denver Bonds and Revenue Fund - 2007

Sept. 10 Oct. 10 Nov. 6

Poll PollResults

Ciruli Associates 2007

Denver Voters Support the Package

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2007

Saturday, Oct. 13 1st ballots arriveMonday, Oct. 22 6,976Monday, Oct. 29 25,132Monday, Nov. 5 65,478Tuesday, Nov. 6 93,684

Slow Return ofDenver Mail-back Election Ballots

Ballots ReturnedDate Cumulative

Ciruli Associates 2007

• 28,000 ballots arrive last 2 days

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2007

Mood of Electorate

Ciruli Associates, N504, 2007LA Times/Bloomberg, N1037, 2007

63%

27% 23%

66%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Right Direction Wrong Track

Colorado U.S.

• Colorado voters - state optimism; National voters - national pessimism

Questions: Generally, would you say things in Colorado are going in the right direction or do you feel things here have gotten pretty seriously off on the wrong track?

Do you think things in this country are generally going in the right direction or are they seriously off on the wrong track?

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2007

Economic Slowdown

Ciruli Associates, N504, 2007

20%16%

47%

30% 29%

50%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Better Same Worse

State U.S.

• National economy “getting worse”• Colorado mostly “the same”

Questions: How about the state economy over the next year, do you think the state economy will be getting better, getting worse or staying the same?

Thinking about the national economy over the next year, do you think the national economy will be getting better, getting worse or staying the same?

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2007

Job Performance ofPresident and Governor

Rate the performance of Ritter…?


36%

58%

6%

71%

15% 14%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Approve DisapproveDon't Know Approve DisapproveDon't Know

Voters

Question: Do you approve or disapprove of the job President George W. Bush is doing? Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that Bill Ritter is handling his job as governor of Colorado?

Bush Ritter

• 2006 approve Bush – 40%, Owens – 60%• U.S. Bush – 32%, Gallup, Nov. 2007

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2007

Ritter and Partisan Approval


83%

5%12%

60%

24%16%

72%

14%21%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Democrat Republican Unaffiliated

Approval Disapproval Don't Know

Question: Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that Bill Ritter is handling his job as governor of Colorado?

• In September, Ritter received considerable Republican and unaffiliated approval

Rate the performance of Ritter…?

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2007

The Terminator Becomes the HulkPolitics and Businesses Go Green

Schwarzenegger – Time Magazine cover: “He’s become a global salesman for the war on carbon.”

Ritter – The Colorado Promise: “Lead Colorado toward self-sufficiency by promoting alternative energy, encouraging cleaner ways of extracting and using fossil fuels, and rewarding efficiency and conservation.”

Hickenlooper – Climate Action Panel and Plan: “Smart choices on energy use, grow economy, foster

environmental health, leave legacy of sustainability.”

Xcel – Second year on Dow Jones Sustainability Index for North America: Richard Kelly – “Commitment to environmental performance and social

responsibility.”

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2007

Vote for U.S. SenateSchaffer vs. Udall


Question: U.S. Senator Wayne Allard has announced he will not seek re-election in 2008. There are currently two candidates who are running or considering running for the U.S. Senate. If you had to vote today for U.S. Senate, would you vote for Mark Udall, the Democrat, or Bob Schaffer, the Republican, or some other candidate? [Rotated]

35% 36%

9%

21%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Schaffer Udall Other Don't Know

Voters

Who do you support…?

• October 2006 Ritter – 43%, Beauprez – 33%

Mark Udall

Bob Shaffer

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2007

Udall and SchafferSupport Among Partisans


72%

6%

34%

3%

68%

19%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

DemocratRepublicanUnaffiliated DemocratRepublicanUnaffiliated

Voters

Note: Aug. 15, 2007 registration: 998,897 Republicans, 860,407 Democrat and 967,853 unaffiliated

Udall Schaffer

Who do you support…?

• 135,000 more registered Republicans

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Second Congressional District Money

1. Jared Polis

$828,0002. Joan Fitz Gerald

624,0003. Chris Lauzen (R)

546,000(Hastert)

4. Bill Foster (D)

541,000(Hastert)

5. Will Shafroth

509,000

• Colorado has Top Three Fundraisers in Country• Democrats 7 to 3 in Top 10

CQ, Nov. 2007

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2007

Hillary Clinton 29% 48%Barack Obama 23 21John Edwards 23 12Bill Richardson 5 2Dennis Kucinich 3 4Joe Biden 1 2Chris Dodd 1 1Don’t know 15 9

• Clinton: 52% favorable, 45% unfavorable, Gallup 2007

Colorado Presidential Politics

Who will you vote for…?

Ciruli Associates, Dem. N174, Rep. N212, 2007Gallup, Nov. 2007

Question: Colorado does not have a presidential primary. But if a (Republican/Democratic) primary for president were being held today in Colorado, as I read the following candidate names, please tell me who you would vote for? [Rotated]

Fred Thompson 27% 19%Rudy Giuliani 19 28John McCain 11 13Mitt Romney 8 12Tom Tancredo 7 2Mike Huckabee 5 10Ron Paul 1 5Don’t know 16 8

Democrat Colo. US Republican Colo. US

Hillary Clinton

Fred Thompson

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2007

Early States and Colorado

Population growth, 2% 6% 24% 10%2000-2006 to 3.0 mil to 1.3 mil to 2.5 mil to 4.7 mil

Growth in Hispanics 115,000 30,000 610,000 926,000

Membership in unions 11% 10% 15% 9%

Democratic Clinton Clinton Clinton ClintonFront-runner 1 pts Ahead 13 pts ahead 23 pts ahead 6 pts ahead

Republican Romney Romney Giuliani ThompsonFront-runner 2 pts ahead 14 pts ahead 8 pts ahead 8 pts ahead

NewIndicator Iowa Hampshire Nevada

Colorado

• Colorado compared to early primary/caucus states

Wall St. JournalU.S. CensusRCP, Nov. 2007Ciruli Associates 2007

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2007

Colorado Becomes More Competitive,But Still Republican Tilt

1980-1988 58% 56%Reagan/Bush I

1992-1996 41% 39%Bush I/Dole

2000-2004 52% 49%Bush II/Bush II

2008 ? ??

Colorado NationalRepublican Republican RepublicanCandidate Presidential Presidentialand Date Average Average

Almanac of American PoliticsCiruli Associates, N504, 2007

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2007

Top Issue for Governorand Legislature to Address

Question: What is the top issue you want the governor and state legislature to address? [Multiple answers]

Immigration 26% 28% 9%Health care price/accessibility 15 8 13Education/funding 11 20 4Transportation 7 6 --Economy 6 11 22Tax burdens 6 5 --Education reform 6 1 --Environment 4 4 1Growth 4 3 --War 4 -- 33Water shortage/supply 2 4 --

2007 2006 US

Ciruli Associates, N504, 2007Ciruli Associates, N500, 2006Gallup, Oct. 2007

• Immigration on top, health care moves second, war appears?

What is your top issue for governor and legislature…?

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38%

44%53%

67%

68%77%

78%

80%89%92%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Low taxesHealth care for uninsured

Early childhood educationAvailable energy supplies

Enforce illegal immigration lawsQuality universities & colleges

Well-educated workforceGood highway system

Good K-12 systemDependable water supply

Very important

Important State Policies to Competefor Jobs and Maintain Strong Economy

Ciruli Associates, N504, June 2007

Question: Thinking about Colorado’s ability to compete for jobs and maintain a strong economy, as I read the following list of public policy issues, please tell me if you believe the issue is very important, somewhat important, not very important or not at all important to Colorado’s ability to compete for jobs and maintain a strong economy. If you don’t have a view, just say so. [Rotated]

Is it important Colorado has…?

• Water, education and transportation critical to jobs/economy

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2007

53%

36%

10%

0%

20%

40%

60%

Harder Same Don't Know

Voters

Amending Colorado’s Constitution

Should it be harder to change the Constitution…?


Question: The Colorado Constitution is eight times as long as the U.S. Constitution. The Colorado Constitution is one of the easiest among the states to amend by the initiative process and only requires the same number of signatures as it does to pass a simple state statute by initiative. Some citizens believe it is too easy to change the Colorado Constitution and it should be harder to amend the state constitution. Others believe the rules to amend the state constitution are working and should not be made harder. Do you believe it should be harder to amend the Colorado Constitution or remain the same?

• Slim majority support making harder – 53%• Sample, wording and view of change

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2007

18% 28% 13% 23%

38% 27% 11% 12%

39% 32% 7% 7%

45% 31% 6% 8%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Two elections

More signatures

Super majority

Percent from each

region

Oppose some Support someOppose definite Support definite

New Rules to Amend the Constitution

Should the rules be changed…?


Question: As I read the following list of ideas to make it more difficult to amend the state constitution than it is to approve a new state statute, please tell me if you definitely support, somewhat support, somewhat oppose or definitely oppose it. If you don’t have a view, just say so. [Rotated]

• Should be regional representation

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2007

41%

51%

8%

0%

20%

40%

60%

Support Oppose Don't Know

Voters

State TABOR “Time-Out”


Question: In 2005, there was a proposal on the ballot, Referendum C, that provided for a 5-year “time-out” for TABOR refunds. It allows the state to keep all the tax dollars it collects for five years. The money was pledged to be used for education, transportation and health care. There may be a future ballot initiative to extend the TABOR “time out” for five more years, or until 2015. As of today, would you support or oppose extending the TABOR “time out” and letting the state keep and spend all the revenue it collects for five more years until 2015?

Support a future “time-out”…?

• No urgency, no need identified

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2007

42%

43%

44%

44%

51%

56%

64%

75%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Bob Schaffer

George W. Bush

Mark Udall

Tom Tancredo

Wayne Allard

Ken Salazar

John Hickenlooper

Bill Ritter

Very and Somewhat Favorable

Colorado Political Leader Ratings


Question: Let me ask you your rating of local and national political leaders. As I read the following list of political leaders, please tell me your impression of each one as very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable or very unfavorable. If you aren’t familiar with a name, or don’t have an opinion, just say so. [Rotated]

Rate the politician very or somewhat favorable…?

• Ritter and Hickenlooper dominate the landscape• State officials more popular than federal• Udall and Schaffer close

C olorado: B attleground S tate in P residential Y ear

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