CLIMATE CHANGE AND ARMED CONFLICT

James R. Lee, “Climate Change and Armed Conflict: Hot and Cold Wars” (Routledge, 2009)

James R. Lee and Alex Kizer, “Climate Change and Border Disputes” (forthcoming).

jlee@american.edu

RE-THINK THE WORLD: IPCC REGIONS

TEMPERATURE FORECASTS IN 2100

PRECIPITATION FORECASTS IN 2100

POST-1945 CONFLICT HISTORY (USING SIPRI)

FUTURE TO 2015 CONFLICTS (USING DOD)

HOT AND COLD WARSHot Wars

War of ContractionLivelihood conflict

Ancient ConflictDeveloping Countries

Cold WarsWar of Expansion

Militarized conflictNew Conflict

Developed Countries

CLIMATE CHANGE AND CONFLICT: HOT (OLD) AND COLD (NEW) TENSION BELTS

SIX SCENARIOS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND CONFLICT

The End of the Ice AgeWhere Have the Tropical Forests

Gone?The Great World Desert and

Water WarsProtein and Livelihood Deficits in

AfricaCentral Asia is Heating UpRising Tides Don’t Lift All Ships

SHORT-TERM IMPACTS: CLIMATE CHANGE AND BORDER DISPUTES

“Italy and Switzerland are planning to redraw their shared alpine border, as global warming is melting the glaciers that originally guided the line.”

  Michael Marshall, “Climate changes

Europe's borders – and the world's”, New Scientist Online, March, 2009.

WHY BORDERS WILL MOVE DUE TO CLIMATE CHANGE

1. Straight and Crooked Borders: Nation-states and colonialism

2. Why Types of Crooked Borders: Mountains Rivers Glaciers

3. Early onset of climate change in impacting these three areas

LIKELY AREAS TO EXPERIENCE SHORT-TERM BORDER DISPUTES DUE TO CLIMATE CHANGE

Why No Pessimism in Climate Change Forecasts?

Winners and Losers: Is Climate Change Good for Me?

The Climate as War: Environmental Modification Treaty Updates

The Political Dimensions of The Political Dimensions of Climate Change and EquityClimate Change and Equity