By:Sean P. McKinley, M.A. Zachary S. Azem, M.A.
20
September 2, 2020 MESSNER LEADS BOLDUC INRACE FOR GOP SENATE NOMINATIONBUT SHAHEENHOLDS ADVANTAGE INGENERAL ELECTION Sean P. McKinley, M.A. Zachary S. Azem, M.A. AndrewE. Smith, Ph.D. [email protected] 603-862-2226 cola.unh.edu/unh-survey-center * We ask that this copyrighted informaƟon be referred to as the Granite State Poll, conducted by the University of NewHampshire Survey Center. By: DURHAM, NH – Corky Messner leads his rival Don Bolduc in the race for the Republican nominaƟon for U.S. Senator in NewHampshire. Messner and Bolduc are equally liked by Republican primary voters. Incumbent Senator Jeanne Shaheen remains well-liked in the state and holds clear leads over her prospecƟve Republican challengers. Shaheen's leads are larger than the lead she enjoyed over her opponent ScoƩBrown in her successful reelecƟon campaign in 2014. These findings are based on the latest Granite State Poll* , conducted by the University of NewHampshire Survey Center. One thousand and nine hundred forty-nine (1,949) Granite State Panel members completed the survey online between August 28 and September 1, 2020. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 2.2 percent. Included were 1,889 likely 2020 general elecƟon voters (MSE = +/- 2.3%), 839 likely DemocraƟc primary voters (MSE = +/- 3.4%) and 703 likely Republican primary voters (MSE = +/- 3.7%). Data were weighted by respondent sex, age, educaƟon, and region of the state to targets fromthe most recent American Community Survey (ACS) conducted by the U.S. Census Bureau, as well as party registraƟon levels provided by the NewHampshire Secretary of State. Granite State Panel members are recruited fromrandomly-selected landline and cell phone numbers across NewHampshire and surveys are sent periodically to panel members. 2020 Republican Senate Primary AƩorney Corky Messner and ReƟred General Don Bolduc are compeƟng in the September 8th Republican primary to be their party's nominee for the U.S. Senate in November. Currently, likely Republican primary voters prefer Messner, although many are sƟll undecided. If the elecƟon were held today, 52%of likely Republican primary voters say they would vote for Messner, 31%would vote for Bolduc, less than 1%would vote for another candidate, and 17%are undecided. Messner holds only a 12 point lead over Bolduc among self-described moderates but holds a 26 point lead among self-described conservaƟves. 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 52% 31% 17% 0% Corky Messner Don Bolduc Other Don't know/Not sure 2020 Republican Senate Primary - Messner vs. Bolduc - August 2020
Transcript of By:Sean P. McKinley, M.A. Zachary S. Azem, M.A.
September 2, 2020
MESSNER LEADS BOLDUC IN RACE FOR GOP SENATE NOMINATION BUT SHAHEEN HOLDS ADVANTAGE IN GENERAL ELECTION
Sean P. McKinley, M.A.Zachary S. Azem, M.A.Andrew E. Smith, Ph.D.
cola.unh.edu/unh-survey-center
* We ask that this copyrighted informaon be referred to as the Granite State Poll, conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center.
By:
DURHAM, NH – Corky Messner leads his rival Don Bolduc in the race for the Republican nominaon for U.S. Senator in New Hampshire.Messner and Bolduc are equally liked by Republican primary voters. Incumbent Senator Jeanne Shaheen remains well-liked in the stateand holds clear leads over her prospecve Republican challengers. Shaheen's leads are larger than the lead she enjoyed over heropponent Sco Brown in her successful reelecon campaign in 2014.
These findings are based on the latest Granite State Poll*, conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. One thousandand nine hundred forty-nine (1,949) Granite State Panel members completed the survey online between August 28 and September 1,2020. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 2.2 percent. Included were 1,889 likely 2020 general elecon voters (MSE = +/-2.3%), 839 likely Democrac primary voters (MSE = +/- 3.4%) and 703 likely Republican primary voters (MSE = +/- 3.7%). Data wereweighted by respondent sex, age, educaon, and region of the state to targets from the most recent American Community Survey (ACS)conducted by the U.S. Census Bureau, as well as party registraon levels provided by the New Hampshire Secretary of State. GraniteState Panel members are recruited from randomly-selected landline and cell phone numbers across New Hampshire and surveys are sentperiodically to panel members.
2020 Republican Senate Primary
Aorney Corky Messner and Rered General Don Bolduc are compeng in the September 8th Republican primary to be their party'snominee for the U.S. Senate in November. Currently, likely Republican primary voters prefer Messner, although many are sll undecided.If the elecon were held today, 52% of likely Republican primary voters say they would vote for Messner, 31% would vote for Bolduc, lessthan 1% would vote for another candidate, and 17% are undecided. Messner holds only a 12 point lead over Bolduc among self-describedmoderates but holds a 26 point lead among self-described conservaves.
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
52%
31%
17%
0%
Corky Messner
Don Bolduc
Other
Don't know/Not sure
2020 Republican Senate Primary - Messner vs. Bolduc - August 2020
Republican Senate Candidates Favorability
Twenty percent of New Hampshire likely general elecon voters have a favorable opinion of Messner, 18% are neutral, 35% have anunfavorable opinion, and 27% don't know enough to say. Messner's net favorability rang, the percentage who have a favorable opinionof him minus the percentage who have an unfavorable opinion, is -15%, down slightly since July (-9%).
Among likely Republican primary voters, 45% have a favorable opinion of Messner, 26% are neutral, 9% have an unfavorable view of him,and 20% don't know enough to say, yielding a net favorability rang of +36%.
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
August 2019
February 2020
May 2020
June 2020
July 2020
August 2020
71%12%12% 5%
73%11%12% 4%
65%10%16%9%
61%15%13%11%
54%18%16%13%
48%20%14%18%
Bolduc (R) Favorability
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
August 2019
February 2020
May 2020
June 2020
July 2020
August 2020
83%10% 4%3%
82%10% 4%4%
69%10%14%7%
64%15%12%9%
43%26%15%17%
27%35%18%20%
Messner (R) Favorability
Favorable Neutral Unfavorable Don't know enough to say
Bolduc's favorability rangs are similar to Messner's: 18% of likely general elecon voters have a favorable opinion of Bolduc, 14% areneutral, 20% have an unfavorable opinion, and 48% don't know enough to say. Bolduc's net favorability rang is -2%, largely unchangedcompared to July (-5%).
Among likely Republican primary voters, 37% have a favorable opinion of Bolduc, 17% are neutral, 4% have an unfavorable view of him,and 41% don't know enough to say, yielding a net favorability rang of +33%.
Favorable Neutral Unfavorable Don't know enough to say
Democrac Senate Candidate Favorability
Messner or Bolduc will face incumbent Senator Jeanne Shaheen in November. Shaheen connues to be broadly popular in NH: 50% oflikely general elecon voters have a favorable opinion of her, 12% are neutral, 35% have an unfavorable opinion of her, and 2% don'tknow enough about her to say. Shaheen's net favorability rang is +15%, largely unchanged since July (+13%). Shaheen's net favorabilityrang is the same as it was in the fall of 2014 (+14%) when she last faced reelecon.
Likely general elecon voters who have completed postgraduate work, those aged 65 and older, and women are more likely than othersto have a favorable opinion of Shaheen.
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
August 2020 81%9%9%
O'Donnell (L) Favorability
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
8%2%
30%
35%
10%12%
60%
50%
Shaheen (D) Favorability
Favorable Neutral Unfavorable Don't know enough to say
Also running for the U.S. Senate from New Hampshire is Libertarian and polical acvist Jusn O'Donnell. Only 1% have a favorableopinion of him, 9% are neutral, 9% have an unfavorable opinion of him, and 81% don't know enough about him to say. O'Donnell's netfavorability rang is -8%.
Favorable Neutral Unfavorable Don't know enough to say
Libertarian Senate Candidate Favorability
U.S. Senate Elecon
Shaheen connues to lead the general elecon for U.S. Senate regardless of the Republican challenger. If the elecon were held todayand Shaheen's Republican opponent was Messner, 54% of likely New Hampshire voters say they would vote for Shaheen, 36% wouldvote for Messner, 3% would vote for O'Donnell, 1% would vote for another candidate, and 6% are undecided. If the elecon were heldtoday and Shaheen's Republican opponent was Bolduc, 53% would vote for Shaheen, 37% would vote for Bolduc, 4% would vote forO'Donnell, less than 1% would vote for another candidate, and 6% are undecided.
Shaheen's leads over Messner (18 percentage points) and Bolduc (16 points) have remained largely unchanged since July. Shaheen'sleads over either Republican candidate are considerably larger than her lead over her Republican opponent Sco Brown during the latesummer and fall of 2014.
FebruaryMarch April May June July August
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
34% 35%
28%
36%
52%
52%
37%
3%
13% 11%13% 6%
17%
50%54% 54%
Shaheen vs. Messner vs. O'Donnell
Shaheen holds wide leads among self-idenfied Democrats over Messner (+95 percentage points) and Bolduc (+94) while amongself-described Republicans, Messner (+68) and Bolduc (+72) hold more modest leads over Shaheen.Among men, Shaheen holds only very small leads over Messner (+5) and Bolduc (+1) but Shaheen holds large leads among womenover Messner (+31) and Bolduc (+32).Among those with a high school educaon or less, Messner (+9) and Bolduc (+10) hold small leads while Shaheen holds leads of 20points or more over both candidates among likely voters with higher levels of educaon.
•••••
2020 U.S. Senate Elecon - Difference in Support - August 2020
Corky Messner Jeanne ShaheenAge of Resp..Level of Edu..
Don Bolduc Jeanne Shaheen
-100% -50% 0% 50% 100%
Overall OVERALL
Party ID
Democrat
Independent
Republican
Gender ofRespondent
Men
Women
Level ofEducation
High school or less
Tech school/Some college
College graduate
Postgraduate work
18%
95%
18%
68%
31%
5%
22%
40%
55%
9%
-100% -50% 0% 50% 100%
16%
94%
20%
72%
32%
1%
10%
20%
36%
55%
February March April May June July August
6%11%
10%
37%
35%
10%
30%17%
50%50%
39%
54%
39%
53%49%
4%
Shaheen vs. Bolduc vs. O'Donnell
Corky Messner
Jeanne Shaheen
Justin O'Donnell
Don't know/Not sure
Don Bolduc
Don't know/Not sure
Jeanne Shaheen
Justin O'Donnell
2020 U.S. Senate Elecon
Granite State Poll Methodology
These findings are based on the latest Granite State Poll, conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. One thousandand nine hundred forty-nine (1,949) Granite State Panel members completed the survey online between August 28 and September 1,2020. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 2.2 percent. Included were 1,889 likely 2020 general elecon voters (MSE = +/-2.3%), 839 likely Democrac primary voters (MSE = +/- 3.4%) and 703 likely Republican primary voters (MSE = +/- 3.7%). These MSE'shave not been adjusted for design effect. The response rate for the August 2020 Granite State Poll is 36%. The design effect for thesurvey is 2.3%.
Data were weighted by respondent sex, age, educaon, and region of the state to targets from the most recent American CommunitySurvey (ACS) conducted by the U.S. Census Bureau, as well as party registraon levels provided by the New Hampshire Secretary ofState.
The Granite State Panel is part of an effort by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center to invesgate new ways of gathering andunderstanding the opinion of New Hampshire residents. Approximately 5,500 New Hampshire adults were recruited from randomlyselected landline and cell phone numbers to parcipate in the panel. Panelists are then asked to parcipate in online surveys sponsoredby the UNH Survey Center.
The number of respondents in each demographic below may not equal the number reported in cross-tabulaon tables as somerespondents choose not to answer some quesons. Due to rounding, percentages may not sum to 100%.
For more informaon about the methodology used in the Granite State Panel, contact Dr. Andrew Smith at (603) 862-2226 or by emailat [email protected].
% N
Gender ofRespondent
Men
Women
Age ofRespondent
18 to 34
35 to 49
50 to 64
65 and older
Level ofEducation
High school or less
Tech school/Some college
College graduate
Postgraduate work
Region ofState
Connecticut Valley
Manchester Area
Mass Border
North Country
Seacoast
Central/Lakes
Party ID Democrat
Independent
Republican
VotingRegistration
Registered Democrat
Registered Undeclared/Not Reg.
Registered Republican
956
921
51%
49%
385
585
399
506
21%
31%
21%
27%
234
392
589
688
12%
21%
31%
36%
331
305
159
477
376
289
17%
16%
8%
25%
19%
15%
813
218
898
42%
11%
47%
550
799
524
29%
43%
28%
Granite State Poll, August 2020 Demographics
Favorability - Corky Messner
Below are a list of some of the candidates who are running in 2020. Please indicate whether you have a favorable or unfavorableopinion of each candidate or if you don't know enough about them to say - Aorney Corky Messner
Favorable Neutral Unfavorable Don't know/Not sure
August 2019
February 2020
May 2020
June 2020
July 2020
August 2020 27%
43%
64%
69%
82%
83%
35%
26%
15%
10%
4%
4%
18%
15%
12%
14%
10%
10%
20%
17%
9%
7%
4%
3%
N
1,846
1,874
982
831
610
496
Favorability - Don Bolduc
Below are a list of some of the candidates who are running in 2020. Please indicate whether you have a favorable or unfavorableopinion of each candidate or if you don't know enough about them to say - Rered General Don Bolduc
Favorable Neutral Unfavorable Don't know/Not sure
August 2019
February 2020
May 2020
June 2020
July 2020
August 2020 48%
54%
61%
65%
73%
71%
20%
18%
15%
10%
4%
5%
14%
16%
13%
16%
11%
12%
18%
13%
11%
9%
12%
12%
N
1,831
1,858
971
832
610
897
2020 Republican Senate Primary
If the Republican primary for U.S. Senate was being held today, would you vote for...
N
698
Don Bolduc Corky Messner Other Don't know/Not sure
August 2020 17%0%52%31%
Favorability - Jeanne Shaheen
Below are a list of some of the candidates who are running in 2020. Please indicate whether you have a favorable or unfavorableopinion of each candidate or if you don't know enough about them to say - Senator Jeanne Shaheen
Favorable Neutral Unfavorable Don't know/Not sure
October 2001
February 2002
April 2002
June 2002
July 2007
September 2007
February 2008
April 2008
July 2008
September 2008
February 2009
April 2009
July 2009
October 2009
February 2010
April 2010
July 2010
September 2010
February 2011
April 2011
July 2011
October 2011
February 2012
April 2012
July 2012
October 2012
February 2013
April 2013
July 2013
October 2013
February 2014
April 2014
July 2014
October 2014
February 2015
May 2015
July 2015
October 2015
February 2016
May 2016
August 2016
October 2016 14%
11%
9%
7%
10%
6%
8%
6%
9%
9%
9%
9%
14%
16%
12%
11%
11%
9%
8%
12%
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8%
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4%
5%
5%
4%
26%
33%
30%
32%
34%
32%
30%
38%
36%
29%
35%
34%
21%
23%
23%
22%
29%
31%
28%
28%
29%
33%
36%
36%
35%
35%
39%
39%
36%
36%
37%
32%
40%
31%
29%
23%
25%
24%
33%
29%
32%
29%
8%
6%
7%
8%
5%
5%
5%
8%
6%
5%
7%
7%
6%
8%
6%
9%
4%
4%
6%
7%
9%
7%
7%
9%
5%
6%
6%
5%
5%
6%
7%
7%
5%
9%
10%
13%
11%
9%
8%
9%
7%
9%
52%
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54%
52%
51%
56%
57%
48%
50%
57%
49%
50%
58%
53%
59%
59%
56%
56%
58%
53%
53%
52%
48%
48%
49%
52%
47%
48%
51%
50%
47%
56%
46%
53%
56%
57%
56%
60%
56%
58%
56%
57%
N
904
532
619
686
583
530
567
509
680
668
505
581
661
512
504
580
588
580
530
527
554
511
503
519
515
503
511
496
502
557
503
617
548
515
500
555
506
520
641
692
724
681
Favorability - Jeanne Shaheen
Below are a list of some of the candidates who are running in 2020. Please indicate whether you have a favorable or unfavorableopinion of each candidate or if you don't know enough about them to say - Senator Jeanne Shaheen
Favorable Neutral Unfavorable Don't know/Not sure
August 2020 81%9%9%1%
N
1,818
Favorable Neutral Unfavorable Don't know/Not sure
February 2017
May 2017
October 2017
February 2018
April 2018
August 2018
October 2018
February 2019
April 2019
August 2019
February 2020
May 2020
June 2020
July 2020
August 2020 2%
4%
7%
2%
14%
8%
11%
16%
12%
13%
13%
13%
9%
12%
10%
35%
34%
36%
38%
28%
40%
31%
24%
33%
29%
24%
26%
26%
28%
32%
12%
16%
14%
22%
10%
8%
8%
10%
7%
7%
8%
8%
9%
9%
8%
50%
47%
44%
38%
49%
44%
50%
50%
49%
50%
55%
52%
56%
51%
50%
N
1,866
1,865
992
833
609
912
548
604
641
499
340
520
571
517
501
Favorability - Jusn O'Donnell
Below are a list of some of the candidates who are running in 2020. Please indicate whether you have a favorable or unfavorableopinion of each candidate or if you don't know enough about them to say - Polical Acvist Jusn O'Donnell
2020 U.S. Senate Elecon - Shaheen vs. Messner vs. O'Donnell
If the U.S. Senate elecon was being held today, and the candidates were Corky Messner, Jeanne Shaheen, and Jusn O'Donnell, wouldyou vote for...
Corky Messner Jeanne Shaheen Justin O'Donnell Other Don't know/Not sure
February 2020
May 2020
June 2020
July 2020
August 2020 6%
11%
13%
13%
17%
1%
1%
0%
1%
4%
3%54%
54%
50%
52%
52%
36%
35%
37%
34%
28%
N
1,854
1,880
942
788
545
2020 U.S. Senate Elecon - Shaheen vs. Bolduc vs. O'Donnell
If the U.S. Senate elecon was being held today, and the candidates were Don Bolduc, Jeanne Shaheen, and Jusn O'Donnell, would youvote for...
Don Bolduc Jeanne Shaheen Justin O'Donnell Other Don't know/Not sure
February 2020
May 2020
June 2020
July 2020
August 2020 6%
10%
10%
11%
17%
0%
0%
1%
0%
5%
4%53%
54%
50%
50%
49%
37%
35%
39%
39%
30%
N
1,851
1,880
941
790
548
Extremely interested Very interested Somewhat interested Not very interested Don't know/Not sure
August 2020 0%7%15%28%49%
N
1,945
Interest in 2020 NH State Primary
As you may know, the New Hampshire State Primary for Governor, U.S. Senate, U.S. Congress and the state legislature will be held onTuesday, September 8th. How interested would you say you are in the 2020 State Primary?
Frequency Discussing 2020 NH State Primary With Friends and Family
How oen would you say you discuss the state primary with your friends and family members?
Frequency Vong in State Primaries in the Past
How oen have you voted in state primaries in the past?
Aenon Paid to 2020 NH State Primary
How much aenon would you say you are paying to the September 8, 2020 state primary?
A lot Some A little None Don't know/Not sure
August 2020 0%6%14%41%39%
N
1,945
Often Sometimes Rarely Never Don't know/Not sure
August 2020 0%12%28%39%20%
N
1,946
Always Usually Sometimes Rarely NeverDon't know/Not
Sure
August 2020 1%6%8%10%23%53%
N
1,946
2020 Republican Senate Primary
Don Bolduc Corky Messner Other Don't know/Not sure
STATEWIDE August 2020 17%0%52%31%
N
698
VotingRegistration
Registered Undeclared/Not Reg.
Registered Republican
Party ID Democrat
Independent
Republican
Ideology Moderate/Liberal
Conservative
Media Usage Boston Globe reader
Conservative radio listener
Fox News viewer
NHPR listener
Union Leader reader
WMUR viewer
Local newspapers reader
Age ofRespondent
18 to 34
35 to 49
50 to 64
65 and older
Gender ofRespondent
Men
Women
Level ofEducation
High school or less
Tech school/Some college
College graduate
Postgraduate work
Region ofState
Central/Lakes
Connecticut Valley
Manchester Area
Mass Border
North Country
Seacoast
Gender &Education
Men, no college degree
Men, college degree
Women, no college degree
Women, college degree
2016PresidentialVote
Voted for Trump
Voted for Hillary Clinton
Did not vote in 2016
14%
23%
1%
0%
52%
51%
33%
26%
14%
40%
62%
3%
11%
55%
21%
11%
31%
35%
16%
12%
22%2%
57%
43%
31%
34%
27%
17%
27%
16%
13%
13%
16%
0%
0%
2%
0%
1%
31%
53%
35%
51%
60%
58%
16%
41%
30%
36%
33%
27%
29%
67%
8%
27%
17%
8%
0%
1%
0%
0%
45%
44%
62%
59%
47%
28%
21%
33%
24%
12%
0%
1%
59%
48%
17%
39%
20%
19%
22%
14%
3%
1%
0%
33%
38%
40%
64%
44%
42%
38%
22%
20%
24%
11%
20%
19%
15%
1%
1%
0%
51%
33%
51%
54%
61%
50%
29%
43%
38%
25%
20%
34%
29%
24%
12%
12%
1%
2%
0%
40%
62%
33%
52%
30%
14%
53%
35%
20%
45%
15%
8%
4%
16%
56%
76%
31%
29%
493
195
638
43
14
472
195
89
543
104
298
520
309
22
127
231
134
177
300
377
50
114
201
312
101
53
186
138
102
113
71
214
90
282
27
25
541
Favorability - Corky Messner
Favorable Neutral Unfavorable Don't know/Not sure
STATEWIDE August 2020 27%35%18%20%
N
1,846
VotingRegistration
Registered Democrat
Registered Undeclared/Not Reg.
Registered Republican
Party ID Democrat
Independent
Republican
Ideology Liberal
Moderate
Conservative
Media Usage Boston Globe reader
Conservative radio listener
Fox News viewer
NHPR listener
Union Leader reader
WMUR viewer
Local newspapers reader
Age ofRespondent
18 to 34
35 to 49
50 to 64
65 and older
Gender ofRespondent
Men
Women
Level ofEducation
High school or less
Tech school/Some college
College graduate
Postgraduate work
Region ofState
Connecticut Valley
Manchester Area
Mass Border
North Country
Seacoast
Central/Lakes
Gender &Education
Men, no college degree
Men, college degree
Women, no college degree
Women, college degree
2016PresidentialVote
Voted for Trump
Voted for Hillary Clinton
Did not vote in 2016
23%
28%
30%
8%
41%
57%
26%
16%
10%
43%
15%
3%
23%
33%
30%
9%
29%
60%
25%
26%
9%
43%
12%
1%
18%
30%
28%
7%
41%
58%
22%
18%
12%
52%
11%
2%
28%
26%
33%
26%
23%
19%
27%
49%
38%
42%
43%
16%
11%
46%
15%
19%
12%
18%
25%
23%
21%
8%
18%
13%
14%
37%
47%
6%
21%
22%
28%
40%
43%
37%
33%
30%
14%
14%
27%
17%
23%
27%
13%
13%
31%
22%
39%
33%
16%
19%
14%
27%
31%
35%
32%
19%
43%
39%
35%
31%
15%
12%
14%
25%
11%
15%
19%
25%
16%
38%
25%
25%
24%
39%
48%
35%
43%
36%
30%
22%
19%
10%
11%
17%
29%
15%
17%
17%
20%
22%
18%
24%
38%
28%
27%
20%
41%
39%
41%
29%
11%
19%
14%
21%
9%
14%
18%
30%
31%
32%
24%
41%
60%
7%
22%
7%
21%
6%
1%
48%
538
775
494
782
194
860
517
716
521
405
1,528
270
1,125
824
403
150
374
573
389
457
910
887
228
373
559
654
305
302
154
461
351
267
329
566
257
621
130
774
674
Favorability - Don Bolduc
Favorable Neutral Unfavorable Don't know/Not sure
STATEWIDE August 2020 48%20%14%18%
N
1,831
VotingRegistration
Registered Democrat
Registered Undeclared/Not Reg.
Registered Republican
Party ID Democrat
Independent
Republican
Ideology Liberal
Moderate
Conservative
Media Usage Boston Globe reader
Conservative radio listener
Fox News viewer
NHPR listener
Union Leader reader
WMUR viewer
Local newspapers reader
Age ofRespondent
18 to 34
35 to 49
50 to 64
65 and older
Gender ofRespondent
Men
Women
Level ofEducation
High school or less
Tech school/Some college
College graduate
Postgraduate work
Region ofState
Connecticut Valley
Manchester Area
Mass Border
North Country
Seacoast
Central/Lakes
Gender &Education
Men, no college degree
Men, college degree
Women, no college degree
Women, college degree
2016PresidentialVote
Voted for Trump
Voted for Hillary Clinton
Did not vote in 2016
48%
47%
47%
4%
22%
36%
15%
15%
12%
33%
16%
5%
44%
52%
51%
4%
16%
36%
17%
17%
11%
36%
15%
2%
46%
49%
44%
4%
20%
40%
13%
16%
12%
37%
14%
4%
43%
46%
50%
45%
41%
30%
39%
26%
21%
21%
24%
8%
3%
31%
16%
14%
8%
16%
18%
21%
19%
15%
18%
22%
15%
32%
45%
10%
43%
40%
52%
62%
26%
20%
19%
18%
10%
13%
18%
9%
22%
26%
11%
10%
62%
34%
18%
24%
11%
17%
9%
25%
41%
51%
46%
51%
31%
21%
22%
15%
13%
11%
11%
17%
15%
17%
21%
16%
33%
49%
42%
52%
58%
49%
31%
23%
25%
15%
14%
19%
17%
11%
11%
16%
12%
15%
19%
17%
22%
17%
17%
17%
56%
67%
36%
34%
24%
14%
26%
23%
11%
9%
13%
19%
9%
10%
25%
25%
52%
53%
42%
13%
36%
3%
17%
9%
17%
18%
2%
37%
538
772
482
777
194
849
514
715
510
399
1,514
267
1,116
816
401
149
362
561
395
457
895
887
227
371
561
643
307
302
154
448
354
265
327
557
256
622
130
763
669
Favorability - Jeanne Shaheen
Favorable Neutral Unfavorable Don't know/Not sure
STATEWIDE August 2020 2%35%12%50%
N
1,866
VotingRegistration
Registered Democrat
Registered Undeclared/Not Reg.
Registered Republican
Party ID Democrat
Independent
Republican
Ideology Liberal
Moderate
Conservative
Media Usage Boston Globe reader
Conservative radio listener
Fox News viewer
NHPR listener
Union Leader reader
WMUR viewer
Local newspapers reader
Age ofRespondent
18 to 34
35 to 49
50 to 64
65 and older
Gender ofRespondent
Men
Women
Level ofEducation
High school or less
Tech school/Some college
College graduate
Postgraduate work
Region ofState
Connecticut Valley
Manchester Area
Mass Border
North Country
Seacoast
Central/Lakes
Gender &Education
Men, no college degree
Men, college degree
Women, no college degree
Women, college degree
2016PresidentialVote
Voted for Trump
Voted for Hillary Clinton
Did not vote in 2016
2%
3%
2%
79%
25%
5%
12%
17%
5%
8%
55%
87%
3%
1%
3%
71%
40%
2%
15%
30%
6%
11%
29%
90%
1%
2%
3%
80%
23%
10%
10%
17%
6%
9%
58%
81%
1%
1%
3%
2%
0%
1%
1%
15%
33%
35%
23%
58%
72%
10%
14%
13%
12%
14%
17%
15%
11%
69%
53%
50%
62%
25%
12%
78%
0%
1%
4%
5%
28%
34%
35%
44%
11%
13%
15%
9%
61%
53%
47%
42%
2%
2%
31%
39%
7%
17%
60%
41%
4%
3%
5%
20%
27%
32%
47%
9%
13%
12%
13%
68%
57%
51%
40%
1%
1%
6%
2%
5%
3%
31%
30%
25%
40%
43%
36%
10%
11%
13%
7%
16%
19%
58%
58%
55%
52%
37%
42%
4%
1%
2%
2%
16%
38%
34%
41%
10%
5%
12%
19%
70%
55%
52%
37%
10%
2%
2%
21%
2%
73%
15%
5%
15%
54%
91%
10%
542
776
510
787
190
878
522
725
528
408
1,544
274
1,140
822
407
156
377
578
392
457
918
893
229
376
567
661
309
303
156
469
356
268
332
575
258
627
130
789
678
Favorability - Jusn O'Donnell
Favorable Neutral Unfavorable Don't know/Not sure
STATEWIDE August 2020 81%9%9%1%
N
1,818
VotingRegistration
Registered Democrat
Registered Undeclared/Not Reg.
Registered Republican
Party ID Democrat
Independent
Republican
Ideology Liberal
Moderate
Conservative
Media Usage Boston Globe reader
Conservative radio listener
Fox News viewer
NHPR listener
Union Leader reader
WMUR viewer
Local newspapers reader
Age ofRespondent
18 to 34
35 to 49
50 to 64
65 and older
Gender ofRespondent
Men
Women
Level ofEducation
High school or less
Tech school/Some college
College graduate
Postgraduate work
Region ofState
Connecticut Valley
Manchester Area
Mass Border
North Country
Seacoast
Central/Lakes
Gender &Education
Men, no college degree
Men, college degree
Women, no college degree
Women, college degree
2016PresidentialVote
Voted for Trump
Voted for Hillary Clinton
Did not vote in 2016
77%
81%
84%
12%
11%
5%
10%
7%
9%
0%
1%
2%
72%
88%
88%
16%
7%
4%
12%
3%
7%
0%
2%
1%
73%
83%
84%
19%
6%
6%
8%
10%
9%
0%
1%
1%
84%
82%
85%
81%
73%
69%
70%
11%
9%
9%
8%
14%
17%
12%
4%
9%
6%
10%
13%
13%
17%
1%
1%
1%
1%
0%
0%
1%
83%
80%
79%
83%
11%
10%
9%
8%
5%
8%
11%
7%
1%
1%
2%
1%
86%
77%
7%
11%
5%
12%
2%
0%
80%
84%
79%
83%
10%
7%
12%
8%
7%
7%
7%
9%
2%
2%
1%
81%
83%
84%
79%
90%
69%
9%
8%
6%
8%
4%
22%
8%
7%
11%
13%
5%
8%
2%
2%
0%
1%
1%
85%
88%
79%
76%
6%
7%
11%
11%
6%
3%
9%
13%
3%
1%
1%
0%
62%
89%
72%
23%
5%
15%
15%
5%
13%
0%
1%
0%
523
772
485
768
189
851
510
701
516
405
1,505
270
1,105
807
389
146
358
562
388
457
898
876
226
372
552
640
304
302
149
450
347
264
329
558
255
613
130
765
655
2020 U.S. Senate Elecon - Shaheen vs. Messner vs. O'Donnell
Corky Messner Jeanne Shaheen Justin O'Donnell OtherDon't know/Not
sure
STATEWIDE August 2020 6%1%3%54%36%
N
1,854
VotingRegistration
Registered Democrat
Registered Undeclared/Not Reg.
Registered Republican
Party ID Democrat
Independent
Republican
Ideology Liberal
Moderate
Conservative
Media Usage Boston Globe reader
Conservative radio listener
Fox News viewer
NHPR listener
Union Leader reader
WMUR viewer
Local newspapers reader
Age ofRespondent
18 to 34
35 to 49
50 to 64
65 and older
Gender ofRespondent
Men
Women
Level ofEducation
High school or less
Tech school/Some college
College graduate
Postgraduate work
Region ofState
Connecticut Valley
Manchester Area
Mass Border
North Country
Seacoast
Central/Lakes
Gender &Education
Men, no college degree
Men, college degree
Women, no college degree
Women, college degree
2016PresidentialVote
Voted for Trump
Voted for Hillary Clinton
Did not vote in 2016
3%
8%
4%
2%
0%
0%
2%
5%
3%
9%
62%
91%
84%
25%
2%
5%
17%
3%
1%
1%
0%
3%
18%
1%
12%
41%
95%
79%
23%
1%
3%
6%
5%
1%
1%
0%
1%
3%
7%
6%
65%
86%
89%
25%
2%
7%
5%
5%
5%
6%
3%
1%
1%
1%
1%
0%
1%
2%
0%
3%
4%
3%
3%
2%
1%
3%
72%
57%
53%
68%
26%
13%
86%
17%
34%
37%
23%
65%
81%
10%
1%
6%
6%
7%
0%
1%
1%
0%
2%
1%
7%
5%
67%
51%
54%
49%
29%
41%
32%
39%
6%
5%
1%
1%
4%
1%
60%
49%
29%
44%
5%
5%
9%
3%
1%
1%
1%
1%
3%
3%
3%
4%
73%
65%
55%
41%
18%
25%
32%
51%
5%
3%
2%
6%
10%
4%
1%
1%
2%
0%
1%
0%
2%
2%
1%
8%
8%
61%
56%
63%
56%
42%
52%
31%
38%
33%
37%
39%
36%
6%
6%
4%
5%
1%
0%
1%
1%
2%
6%
5%
0%
75%
53%
59%
44%
15%
35%
31%
49%
16%
2%
5%
2%
0%
1%
9%
1%
1%
66%
96%
10%
8%
1%
83%
546
760
510
785
188
874
520
719
532
408
1,538
269
1,142
817
410
157
376
574
393
452
915
887
227
379
557
656
303
302
154
463
349
271
333
567
258
621
117
792
680
2020 U.S. Senate Elecon - Shaheen vs. Bolduc vs. O'Donnell
Don Bolduc Jeanne Shaheen Justin O'Donnell OtherDon't know/Not
sure
STATEWIDE August 2020 6%0%4%53%37%
N
1,851
VotingRegistration
Registered Democrat
Registered Undeclared/Not Reg.
Registered Republican
Party ID Democrat
Independent
Republican
Ideology Liberal
Moderate
Conservative
Media Usage Boston Globe reader
Conservative radio listener
Fox News viewer
NHPR listener
Union Leader reader
WMUR viewer
Local newspapers reader
Age ofRespondent
18 to 34
35 to 49
50 to 64
65 and older
Gender ofRespondent
Men
Women
Level ofEducation
High school or less
Tech school/Some college
College graduate
Postgraduate work
Region ofState
Connecticut Valley
Manchester Area
Mass Border
North Country
Seacoast
Central/Lakes
Gender &Education
Men, no college degree
Men, college degree
Women, no college degree
Women, college degree
2016PresidentialVote
Voted for Trump
Voted for Hillary Clinton
Did not vote in 2016
3%
10%
4%
0%
0%
0%
3%
5%
3%
7%
60%
91%
87%
24%
2%
7%
18%
3%
0%
0%
0%
3%
18%
1%
9%
42%
95%
81%
22%
1%
5%
6%
5%
0%
0%
0%
4%
3%
5%
5%
63%
86%
85%
28%
4%
6%
5%
8%
5%
7%
3%
2%
0%
0%
1%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
3%
3%
3%
2%
0%
3%
72%
56%
51%
67%
24%
10%
85%
21%
35%
37%
25%
67%
86%
10%
2%
8%
5%
7%
0%
0%
0%
2%
1%
10%
4%
66%
49%
52%
49%
30%
41%
32%
41%
7%
5%0%
5%
3%
60%
46%
28%
45%
5%
5%
9%
5%
0%
0%
0%
3%
3%
3%
6%
73%
64%
54%
40%
18%
28%
34%
50%
6%
8%
1%
6%
10%
4%
1%
0%
0%
0%
4%
2%
1%
1%
8%
8%
61%
55%
62%
53%
41%
52%
30%
35%
36%
40%
42%
35%
6%
7%
4%
6%
1%
0%
3%
6%
3%
3%
75%
53%
57%
42%
16%
33%
34%
49%
14%
3%
7%
0%
0%
1%
1%
4%
67%
95%
7%
18%
1%
82%
542
761
510
782
188
875
516
720
532
408
1,536
265
1,137
813
406
157
371
576
393
452
916
884
228
380
559
651
303
302
154
463
345
272
334
567
258
617
117
792
676
Interest in 2020 NH State Primary
Extremelyinterested Very interested
Somewhatinterested
Not veryinterested
Don't know/Notsure
STATEWIDE August 2020 0%7%15%28%49%
N
1,945
VotingRegistration
Registered Democrat
Registered Undeclared/Not Reg.
Registered Republican
Party ID Democrat
Independent
Republican
Ideology Liberal
Moderate
Conservative
Media Usage Boston Globe reader
Conservative radio listener
Fox News viewer
NHPR listener
Union Leader reader
WMUR viewer
Local newspapers reader
Age ofRespondent
18 to 34
35 to 49
50 to 64
65 and older
Gender ofRespondent
Men
Women
Level ofEducation
High school or less
Tech school/Some college
College graduate
Postgraduate work
Region ofState
Connecticut Valley
Manchester Area
Mass Border
North Country
Seacoast
Central/Lakes
Gender &Education
Men, no college degree
Men, college degree
Women, no college degree
Women, college degree
2016PresidentialVote
Voted for Trump
Voted for Hillary Clinton
Did not vote in 2016
0%
7%
9%
4%
7%
19%
15%
29%
27%
29%
58%
46%
52%
0%
1%
7%
17%
5%
12%
21%
17%
26%
32%
29%
56%
30%
48%
0%
3%
12%
4%
9%
17%
18%
29%
26%
27%
59%
44%
51%
0%
0%
0%
3%
7%
13%
5%
7%
2%
4%
12%
15%
12%
14%
14%
10%
15%
27%
28%
18%
31%
29%
20%
29%
57%
50%
57%
49%
51%
69%
52%
0%
1%
0%
3%
5%
5%
15%
12%
14%
20%
16%
23%
31%
31%
24%
61%
50%
42%
45%
1%6%
9%
13%
18%
31%
24%
49%
49%
0%
0%
0%
1%
10%
10%
6%
6%
16%
21%
21%
7%
25%
21%
26%
36%
49%
48%
47%
50%
0%
0%
1%
6%
12%
5%
5%
10%
5%
12%
18%
17%
14%
15%
17%
21%
21%
42%
24%
33%
35%
61%
49%
36%
56%
40%
42%
0%
1%
8%
4%
10%
8%
18%
11%
20%
17%
23%
37%
23%
25%
51%
47%
47%
49%
0%
1%
20%
5%
8%
18%
20%
10%
26%
28%
24%
36%
47%
58%
550
798
522
813
218
897
532
757
551
412
1,588
279
1,164
843
412
156
384
585
399
506
955
921
234
392
588
688
330
305
159
476
376
288
346
593
261
651
161
813
688
Aenon Paid to 2020 NH State Primary
A lot Some A little NoneDon't know/Not
sure
STATEWIDE August 2020 0%6%14%41%39%
N
1,945
VotingRegistration
Registered Democrat
Registered Undeclared/Not Reg.
Registered Republican
Party ID Democrat
Independent
Republican
Ideology Liberal
Moderate
Conservative
Media Usage Boston Globe reader
Conservative radio listener
Fox News viewer
NHPR listener
Union Leader reader
WMUR viewer
Local newspapers reader
Age ofRespondent
18 to 34
35 to 49
50 to 64
65 and older
Gender ofRespondent
Men
Women
Level ofEducation
High school or less
Tech school/Some college
College graduate
Postgraduate work
Region ofState
Connecticut Valley
Manchester Area
Mass Border
North Country
Seacoast
Central/Lakes
Gender &Education
Men, no college degree
Men, college degree
Women, no college degree
Women, college degree
2016PresidentialVote
Voted for Trump
Voted for Hillary Clinton
Did not vote in 2016
0%
6%
6%
4%
6%
18%
11%
41%
40%
46%
48%
36%
39%
1%
6%
13%
4%
12%
15%
16%
40%
43%
42%
43%
30%
37%
0%
2%
8%
4%
8%
18%
12%
46%
38%
44%
45%
36%
39%
0%
0%
0%
3%
5%
10%
4%
5%
1%
3%
7%
13%
12%
13%
10%
8%
11%
41%
42%
34%
43%
45%
45%
44%
49%
40%
45%
40%
40%
46%
42%
0%
1%
0%
2%
4%
4%
12%
7%
11%
17%
22%
37%
39%
51%
38%
54%
46%
26%
28%
1%3%
8%
14%
14%
46%
36%
36%
42%
0%
0%
1%
6%
6%
6%
5%
16%
18%
17%
9%
42%
42%
40%
43%
35%
34%
38%
42%
0%
1%
0%
2%
12%
4%
5%
8%
2%
16%
13%
13%
11%
14%
21%
30%
37%
45%
43%
44%
49%
52%
38%
38%
42%
33%
28%
0%
1%
5%
2%
7%
8%
16%
13%
19%
13%
43%
48%
40%
35%
36%
35%
34%
44%
1%
9%
4%
6%
28%
15%
11%
29%
43%
36%
34%
37%
47%
550
798
522
813
218
898
532
757
552
412
1,589
279
1,164
843
412
157
385
585
399
506
956
921
234
392
589
688
330
305
159
476
376
288
346
594
261
651
161
814
688
Frequency Discussing 2020 NH State Primary With Friends and Family
Often Sometimes Rarely NeverDon't know/Not
sure
STATEWIDE August 2020 0%12%28%39%20%
N
1,946
VotingRegistration
Registered Democrat
Registered Undeclared/Not Reg.
Registered Republican
Party ID Democrat
Independent
Republican
Ideology Liberal
Moderate
Conservative
Media Usage Boston Globe reader
Conservative radio listener
Fox News viewer
NHPR listener
Union Leader reader
WMUR viewer
Local newspapers reader
Age ofRespondent
18 to 34
35 to 49
50 to 64
65 and older
Gender ofRespondent
Men
Women
Level ofEducation
High school or less
Tech school/Some college
College graduate
Postgraduate work
Region ofState
Connecticut Valley
Manchester Area
Mass Border
North Country
Seacoast
Central/Lakes
Gender &Education
Men, no college degree
Men, college degree
Women, no college degree
Women, college degree
2016PresidentialVote
Voted for Trump
Voted for Hillary Clinton
Did not vote in 2016
0%
0%
8%
15%
9%
26%
27%
31%
42%
37%
41%
24%
21%
18%
0%
1%
9%
28%
12%
28%
17%
30%
39%
40%
39%
24%
15%
18%
0%
0%
0%
8%
15%
9%
24%
31%
29%
41%
37%
41%
26%
17%
21%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
6%
11%
11%
9%
9%
7%
8%
28%
28%
30%
27%
25%
20%
32%
41%
38%
39%
45%
40%
48%
40%
25%
23%
21%
19%
25%
26%
20%
0%
0%
1%
6%
11%
13%
19%
25%
27%
25%
35%
44%
41%
46%
23%
25%
20%
15%
22%
1%
0%
12%
13%
22%
33%
44%
34%
21%
20%
0%
0%
0%
1%
12%
17%
16%
7%
28%
29%
32%
25%
40%
37%
33%
44%
19%
17%
19%
23%
1%
0%
0%
1%
7%
13%
17%
11%
17%
12%
21%
36%
24%
28%
20%
40%
43%
31%
39%
44%
38%
35%
28%
19%
20%
17%
24%
14%
0%
1%
0%
0%
14%
12%
16%
11%
27%
20%
31%
34%
39%
45%
38%
33%
21%
22%
14%
22%
1%
0%
30%
11%
10%
43%
29%
26%
15%
43%
41%
12%
16%
23%
550
798
523
813
218
898
532
757
552
412
1,589
279
1,164
843
412
157
385
585
399
506
956
921
234
392
589
688
330
305
159
476
376
288
346
594
261
651
161
814
688
Frequency Vong in State Primaries in the Past
Always Usually Sometimes Rarely NeverDon't
know/NotSure
STATEWIDE August 2020 1%6%8%10%23%53%
N
1,946
VotingRegistration
Registered Democrat
Registered Undeclared/Not Reg.
Registered Republican
Party ID Democrat
Independent
Republican
Ideology Liberal
Moderate
Conservative
Media Usage Boston Globe reader
Conservative radio listener
Fox News viewer
NHPR listener
Union Leader reader
WMUR viewer
Local newspapers reader
Age ofRespondent
18 to 34
35 to 49
50 to 64
65 and older
Gender ofRespondent
Men
Women
Level ofEducation
High school or less
Tech school/Some college
College graduate
Postgraduate work
Region ofState
Connecticut Valley
Manchester Area
Mass Border
North Country
Seacoast
Central/Lakes
Gender &Education
Men, no college degree
Men, college degree
Women, no college degree
Women, college degree
2016PresidentialVote
Voted for Trump
Voted for Hillary Clinton
Did not vote in 2016
0%
1%
1%
5%
5%
6%
12%
3%
7%
12%
11%
17%
25%
27%
69%
46%
53%
0%
0%
1%
4%
9%
7%
8%
11%
7%
6%
17%
11%
18%
25%
26%
64%
37%
48%
0%
1%
2%
8%
6%
6%
7%
9%
6%
11%
13%
15%
27%
25%
70%
47%
46%
1%
0%
1%
0%
3%
5%
4%
5%
4%
1%
11%
3%
8%
14%
4%
9%
5%
4%
6%
10%
2%
8%
10%
6%
8%
24%
24%
17%
27%
19%
22%
21%
64%
54%
62%
56%
57%
66%
55%
0%
1%
0%
1%
1%
3%
2%
16%
3%
9%
8%
12%
9%
11%
11%
9%
20%
27%
27%
14%
67%
49%
51%
48%
1%
0%
6%
6%
5%
11%
9%
10%
24%
22%
54%
51%
1%
0%
1%
3%
5%
4%
9%
4%
3%
7%
13%
9%
14%
13%
6%
28%
29%
25%
16%
56%
47%
51%
56%
0%
1%
1%
0%
1%
5%
2%
5%
8%
7%
6%
9%
15%
4%
3%
11%
7%
7%
15%
4%
8%
13%
10%
28%
25%
36%
20%
19%
18%
51%
43%
50%
60%
51%
58%
1%
1%
0%
5%
7%
4%
7%
3%
7%
4%
14%
11%
8%
12%
10%
32%
20%
25%
21%
48%
57%
54%
49%
3%
0%
48%
3%
2%
3%
5%
10%
6%
13%
8%
10%
28%
17%
29%
51%
64%
550
798
522
813
218
898
532
757
552
412
1,589
279
1,164
843
412
157
385
585
399
506
956
921
234
392
589
688
330
305
159
476
376
288
346
594
261
651
161
814
688
