By: Date: Federal Aviation Administration Surveillance and Broadcast Services ASAS in NextGen...

By:

Date:

Federal AviationAdministrationSurveillance and

Broadcast Services

ASAS in NextGen

Roberta Massiah

April 24, 2007

2 2Federal AviationAdministration

Surveillance and Broadcast ServicesApril 24, 2007

Agenda

• Transition to NextGen• Initial Applications• Benefits• Future Applications

– Balancing – Prioritization – Qualitative Score Sheet

• Next Steps



Realizing NextGenNextGen

NextGen

Trajectory-Based Operations

Aircraft Data Communications

Performance-Based

Operations and Services

Separation Management

Collaborative TFM

Precision Navigation

Weather Integration

Surveillance Services

Network-Centric

Information Sharing

Trajectory-Based Operations

Aircraft Data Communications

Performance-Based

Operations and Services

Separation Management

Collaborative TFM

Precision Navigation

Weather Integration

Surveillance Services

Network-Centric

Information Sharing

Key Near-Term Investments Key Near-Term Investments

ERAM EnhancementsAutomated Problem Resolution

Concept DemonstrationsTrajectory-Based Ops/High Density

Infrastructure Robust Flow of Information

TFM-M EnhancementsTime-Based Metering

Terminal EnhancementsMerging and Spacing Tools

RNP/RNAV ExpansionPrecise Navigation

Data CommunicationsFlight Intent Downlink

ADS-BAircraft Separation

SWIM/Net-Enabled WeatherNet-Centric Information Sharing

ERAM EnhancementsAutomated Problem Resolution

Concept DemonstrationsTrajectory-Based Ops/High Density

Infrastructure Robust Flow of Information

TFM-M EnhancementsTime-Based Metering

Terminal EnhancementsMerging and Spacing Tools

RNP/RNAV ExpansionPrecise Navigation

Data CommunicationsFlight Intent Downlink

ADS-BAircraft Separation

SWIM/Net-Enabled WeatherNet-Centric Information Sharing

ERAM

TFM-M

STARS/CARTS

RNP/RNAV

Airspace Mgmt Program

Initial ADS-B

Initial SWIM

ERAM

TFM-M

STARS/CARTS

RNP/RNAV

Airspace Mgmt Program

Initial ADS-B

Initial SWIM

Current ProgramsCurrent Programs



Background: Initial ADS-B ServicesFY2007- FY2010

Services: ASAS / RFG Conversion

Surveillance Broadcast Services (en route, terminal, surface)

- Airport surface surveillance (ADS-B-APT)

- ATC surveillance in non-radar airspace (ADS-B-NRA)

- ATC surveillance in radar areas (ADS-B-RAD)

- Aircraft derived data for ground tools (ADS-B-ADD)

Traffic Information Broadcast Services - Enhanced traffic situational awareness during flight operations (ATSA-AIRB)

Flight Information Broadcast Services Not applicable

Link to Initial Services and Applications Detail



Background: Initial ADS-B ApplicationsFY2007- FY2010

FAA Applications: ASAS / RFG Conversion

Enhanced Visual Acquisition - Enhanced traffic situational awareness during flight operations (ATSA-AIRB)

Enhanced Visual ApproachesIncludes:• Merging and Spacing• Cockpit Display of Traffic Information (CDTI) Assisted Visual Separation (CAVS)

- Enhanced visual separation on approach (ATSA-VSA)• Merging and Spacing and CAVS are not applicable

Final Approach and Runway Occupancy Awareness

- Enhanced traffic situational awareness on the airport surface (ATSA-SURF)

Airport Surface Situational Awareness - Enhanced traffic situational awareness on the airport surface (ATSA-SURF)

Conflict Detection - Enhanced traffic situational awareness during flight operations (ATSA-AIRB)

Link to Initial Services and Applications Detail



Sample Initial Applications

Enhanced Visual Acquisition

Climb/descent rate

Selected Target

Selected Target Info

Closure Rate

RangeIndication

Enhanced Visual Approach



Quantified Benefits for Initial Applications

FAA Application Outcome

Risk Adjusted Benefit

(BY07$M)

Radar Airspace ATC Surveillance

Surveillance cost avoidance $1,225.9

More efficient spacing on approach in IMC and MVMC by reducing the spacing buffer

$1,519.3

Increased safety on the surface by controllers $14.2

More efficient ATC management of surface movement $87.0

Enhanced Visual Acquisition and Conflict Detection Fewer aircraft-to-aircraft conflicts $569.2

Weather and NAS Status Situational Awareness

Fewer encounters with hazardous weather $1,052.6

More efficient routes in adverse weather $12.2

Fewer aircraft-to-terrain conflicts $749.4

Enhanced Visual Approach - Initial Application More efficient spacing on approach in VMC $1,356.8

Enhanced Visual Approach - CAVS Continuation of visual approaches in marginal conditions $603.3

Enhanced Visual Approach - Merging and Spacing Increased ability to perform continuous descent

approaches$2,329.6

ADS-B ATC Automation Integration

Airport Surface Situational Awareness More efficient movement on surface by pilots $782.7

Final Approach and Runway Occupancy Awareness Increased safety on the surface by pilots $313.7

Total $10,615.9



Future ApplicationsFAA Applications: ASAS / RFG Conversion

CDTI / MFD Assisted Visual Separation Not applicable

Merging and Spacing Not applicable

In-Trail Procedure in Oceanic Airspace - In-trail procedure in oceanic airspace (ATSA-ITP)1,2

- In-trail procedure in oceanic airspace (ASEP-ITP)1

Approach Spacing for Instrument Approaches

Not applicable

Enhanced Sequencing and Merging - Sequencing and merging operations (ASPA-S&M)1,2

- Sequencing and merging operations (ASEP-S&M)1

Independent Closely Spaced Parallel Approaches

Not applicable

1 – ASAS Application; 2 – RFG Application

Link to Future Applications Detail



Future ApplicationsFAA Applications: ASAS / RFG Conversion

Airborne Conflict Management - Self separation in segregated free flight airspace (SSEP-FFAS)1

- Self separation in managed airspace (SSEP-MAS)1

- Organized track system (SSEP-FFT)1

Paired Approach Not applicable

Not applicable - Enhanced crossing and passing operations (ASPA-C&P) 1,2

Not applicable - Lateral crossing and passing (ASEP-LC&P)1

Not applicable - Vertical crossing and passing (ASEP-VC&P)1

Not applicable - In-trail follow (ASEP-ITF)1

1 – ASAS Application; 2 – RFG Application

Link to Future Applications Detail



Selection Approach

System Effectiveness

Lifecycle Cost

• Research, design, and development cost

•Construction cost

•Production cost

•System operation cost

•Maintenance and support cost

•Retirement, material recycling, and disposal cost

• System performance

•Availability, dependability, reliability, maintainability, and supportability

•Constructability

•Human Factors

•System quality

•Disposability

•Other technical factors



Prioritization

Deploy

DiscoverDecide

Develop

Steps we take to screen the many ideas we could pursue and narrow them down to the select portfolio(s) we will pursue with our limited resources

The work we do as we execute the selected array of applications, which taken together, produce the capabilities we need

Activities to ensure that the innovations we develop are effectively applied to produce value for the airspace users

All the things we do to explore and understand our applications,

opportunities, the directions we could choose to pursue in

addressing our airspace needs

Scorecard

Simulation

Concept Exploration

Air to Air Applications

Capacity Cost Avoidance

Efficient Spacing

Efficient Routes in Adverse Weather

Efficient ATC Surface

Management

Efficient Pilot

Surface Movement

Efficiency Subscore

Reduced A/C to A/C

Conflicts

Reduced Hazardous Weather

Encounters

Reduced A/C to Terrain Conflict

Improved Search

and Rescue Services

Increased Medevac Access

Safety Subscore

Improved Separation Standards

Reduced Legacy Investment

ATC PilotUser

ANSP

Risk Rating

Likelihood Consequence:

Assessment: Additional risk assessment should be based on the Likelihood and Consequence tables below. Choose a level of Likelihood (A – E) based on the probability of the risk occurring (A being the lowest and E the highest). Then, rate the impact of the risk occurrence (1 being the lowest and 5 the highest).

Regulatory Impact Environmental Impact Political Impact

ANSP

ANSP Subscore

Payback Period

Aircraft Retrofit

User

Avionics Upgrade User Cost Subscore

Description: Insert operational description of the proposed application

Score

3.0 Risk

1.0 User Demand: State whether the application demand is by the user, an ANSP, or both.

Safety

ATC Workforce Automation Impact

Surface Safety

Efficiency

2.0 Reward Criteria:

Business Case Benefits Criteria

Business Case Cost Criteria

Application: Insert application name, including RFG / ASAS Conversion (if applicable)

E

D

C

B

A

1 2 3 4 5

Low Medium High

Lik

elih

oo

d

Consequence Will effectively avoid or mitigate this risk based on standard practices

Low/ Not Likely

A

Have usually mitigated this type of risk with minimal oversight in similar cases

Minor/ Low Likelihood

B

May mitigate this risk, but workarounds will be required

Moderate/ Likely

C

Cannot mitigate this risk, but a different approach might

Significant/ Highly Likely

D

Cannot mitigate this type of risk; no known processes or alternatives are available

High/ Near Certainty

E

Existing Approach…DescriptionLevel

Will effectively avoid or mitigate this risk based on standard practices

Low/ Not Likely

A



B


Moderate/ Likely

C



D



E


Cannot achieve major program milestones; re-baseline required

Unacceptable performance; workarounds not available

5 – HighProgram success in doubt

Program critical path affected; workarounds available; major program milestones not affected.

Unacceptable performance; workarounds available; significant design or process change needed

4 – SignificantProgram success could be jeopardized

Some key dates missed; workarounds available; critical path not affected.

Moderate performance shortfall; workarounds available; minor design/process change needed

3 – ModerateLimited impact to program success

Schedule slip but able to meet key dates with additional activities or effort; critical path not affected

Minor performance shortfall within acceptable limits; no design or process change needed

2 – MinorProgram success not impacted

Program schedule will still be metTechnical goals will still be met1 – Low Program success not impacted

ScheduleTechnicalImpact

















Prioritization (continued)

Test

Test

Test

DIS

CO

VE

R

DE

CID

E

DE

PL

OY

DE

VE

LO

P

Concept

Requirements

Design

Development

High Level

Low Level

High Level

Low Level

Portfolio Investment

PlanPlans,

Schedules, Resources, Progress Tracking

Low Level

High Level

•Vision

•Strategic Roadmaps

•Con Ops

•Deployment Plans

•Pilots

Verification

Validation

Delivery

In-Service



Generic Scorecard

Capacity Cost Avoidance

Efficient Spacing

Efficient Routes in Adverse Weather

Efficient ATC Surface

Management

Efficient Pilot

Surface Movement

Efficiency Subscore

Reduced A/C to

A/C Conflicts

Reduced Hazardous Weather

Encounters

Reduced A/C to Terrain Conflict

Improved Search

and Rescue Services

Increased Medevac Access

Safety Subscore

Improved Separation Standards

Reduced Legacy Investment

ATC PilotUser

ANSP

Risk Rating

Likelihood Consequence:

Assessment: Additional risk assessment should be based on the Likelihood and Consequence tables below. Choose a level of Likelihood (A – E) based on the probability of the risk occurring (A being the lowest and E the highest). Then, rate the impact of the risk occurrence (1 being the lowest and 5 the highest).

Regulatory Impact Environmental Impact Political Impact

ANSP

ANSP Subscore

Payback Period

Aircraft Retrofit

User

Avionics Upgrade User Cost Subscore

Description: Insert operational description of the proposed application

Score

3.0 Risk

1.0 User Demand: State whether the application demand is by the user, an ANSP, or both.

Safety

ATC Workforce Automation Impact

Surface Safety

Efficiency

2.0 Reward Criteria:



Application: Insert application name, including RFG / ASAS Conversion (if applicable)

E

D

C

B

A

1 2 3 4 5

Low Medium High

Lik

eli

ho

od

Consequence Will effectively avoid or mitigate this risk based on standard practices

Low/ Not Likely

A



B


Moderate/ Likely

C



D



E


Will effectively avoid or mitigate this risk based on standard practices

Low/ Not Likely

A



B


Moderate/ Likely

C



D



E
































Scoring GuidelinesScore = 0 Score = 10

1.0 Demand

- Minimal sponsorship by user and ANSP - Strong sponsorship by user and ANSP

- Low probability of implementation success - High probability of implementation success

- Speculative improvement to airspace environment - Predictable positive impact on airspace environment

2.0 Reward Criteria


- Marginal airspace / surface efficiency contribution in high density environment

- Considerable airspace / surface efficiency contribution in high density environment

- Minimal surface / airspace safety contribution in high density environment

- Significant surface / airspace safety contribution in high density environment

- Nominal cost avoidance - Considerable cost avoidance


- Rough estimate of application payback period is greater than 10 years

- Rough estimate of application payback period is less than 5 years

- Rough estimate of incremental cost for application

User:

-Avionics costs are greater than $100K/aircraft

-Aircraft retrofit cost are greater than $500K/aircraft

ANSP:

-ATC workforce increase greater than 3 per shift

-ATC automation lifecycle costs greater than $10M

- Rough estimate of incremental cost for application

User:

-Avionics costs are less than $40K/aircraft

-Aircraft retrofit cost are less than $100K/aircraft

ANSP:

-ATC workforce increase less than 1 per shift

-ATC automation lifecycle costs less than $1M

3.0 Risk

- High regulatory impact - Low regulatory impact

- High negative environmental impact - Low negative environmental impact

- Negative political impact - Positive political impact



Deciding the ‘Right’ Application To Invest In

Standards and Rulemaking, $4.2,

5%

Program Management, $3.3,

4%

Implementation, $57.9, 73%

Ops Support, $6.6, 8%

Systems Engineering, $8.0,

10%

Application Score Risk

1 26 G

2 22 G

3 20 Y

4 20 R

5 11 R



Next Steps

• Developing applications to the point of implementation

• Measuring value in demonstration trials

• Leverage activities across international community to maximize value



Additional Presentations

• Randy Bone will be presenting on Flight Deck Merging and Spacing

By: Date: Federal Aviation Administration Surveillance and Broadcast Services ASAS in NextGen...

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