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Carlos Rodríguez Otero, Ada Luisa Pérez Hernández, Isidro Salas GarcíaCarlos Rodríguez Otero, Ada Luisa Pérez Hernández, Isidro Salas García
CUBA, 2001CUBA, 2001
Given at Given at
Open Meeting Of The Global Environmental Change Open Meeting Of The Global Environmental Change Research Community Rio De Janeiro Research Community Rio De Janeiro
6-8 October, 2001 6-8 October, 2001
TO PROPOSE MEASURES OF ADAPTATION THAT CONSTITUTE AN IMPORTANT TOOL FOR TERRITORIAL CLASSIFICATION AND MANAGEMENT OF THE COASTAL ZONES IN THE DIFFERENT LEVELS OF PHYSICAL PLANNING: NATIONAL, PROVINCIAL, MUNICIPAL AND URBAN FOR SHORT, MEDIUM AND LONG TIMES
OBJECTIVESOBJECTIVESTO STUDY THE RISK AND VULNERABILITY ELEMENTS IN THE COASTAL ZONES CONSIDERING CONCENTRATED AND DISPERSE POPULATION, FOREST AND CROP AREAS, AND OTHER ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES
Area 110 861 kmArea 110 861 km22
4 000 keys4 000 keys6 000 km6 000 kmof of coastscoasts
GEOGRAPHICAL LOCALIZATIONGEOGRAPHICAL LOCALIZATION
NATURAL AND ANTHROPICS IMPACTS ON NATURAL AND ANTHROPICS IMPACTS ON COASTAL ECOSYSTEMSCOASTAL ECOSYSTEMS
HUMANHUMANACTIVITIESACTIVITIES
CLIMATE CLIMATE VARIABILITYVARIABILITY
EXTREME EVENTSEXTREME EVENTS
DROUGHTDROUGHT FLOODFLOOD
CLIMATECLIMATECHANGE CHANGE
SEA- LEVEL RISESEA- LEVEL RISE
COASTAL ZONE DEFINITIONCOASTAL ZONE DEFINITION
width is varies
Research objective
Coastal characteristic
The area of contact between land and sea, is The area of contact between land and sea, is scarce, vulnerable and dynamic territory, where scarce, vulnerable and dynamic territory, where
natural, economic, demographic, social and natural, economic, demographic, social and environmental aspects come togetherenvironmental aspects come together
HIGH IMPACT SEA -LEVEL RISE
MEDIUM AND LOW IMPACT SEA- LEVEL RISE
1000 m
COASTAL ZONE DELIMITATIONCOASTAL ZONE DELIMITATION
SH
OR
EL
INE
12 000 m
1 m 5 m
0
SCENARIOS CLIMATE CHANGESCENARIOS CLIMATE CHANGE(CO(CO22 Duplication) Duplication)
• AN INCREASE OF TEMPERATURE FOR THE YEAR 2100 WILL BE 1,6 - 2,5 0C
• CHANGES ON PRECIPITATIONS RATES OF 10 - 15 %
• SIMILAR ACTIVITY OF TROPYCAL CYCLONE AS NOWADAYS
• AN INCREASING NUMBER OF COLD FRONTS DUE TO OF ENSO EVENT
• EQUAL NUMBER OF SOUTHERN WINDS
• INCREASE OF DROUGHT PERIODS MAINLY IN THE EASTERN REGION
AVERAGE SEA- LEVEL RISE DURING THE LAST THREE DECADES
2.9 mm/year
SEA - LEVEL RISE IN CUBASEA - LEVEL RISE IN CUBA
sensibility low highyear 2050 8 cm 44cmyear 2100 20cm 95cm
Projection
1 meter
Recurrent Periods Storm Surges High (m)(cases/year) . Actual Forecasted
Scenario 1 m
1/100 3,7 3,81/50 2,2 2,31/20 0,7 0,91/10 0,5 0,7
Most Dangerous Sectors
STORM SURGES IN SELECTED SECTORS
Surges behavior will Surges behavior will increase only 4% in increase only 4% in
forecasted scenario 1 mforecasted scenario 1 m
STORM SURGESSTORM SURGES
Risk degree by sectors
RISK MAP: TROPICAL CYCLONES SURGE RISK MAP: TROPICAL CYCLONES SURGE FOR FOR COASTAL SECTORS OF CUBACOASTAL SECTORS OF CUBA
FREQUENCY, MAGNITUDE AND LOCATION
HUMAN SETTLEMENTS SYSTEMHUMAN SETTLEMENTS SYSTEM IN CUBAIN CUBA
6834 TOTAL SETTLEMENTS
573 URBANS AND 6221 RURALS
1 MILLION INHABITANTS LIVE IN DISPERSED WAY
HUMAN SETTLEMENTS SYSTEM IN CUBA IS WELL HUMAN SETTLEMENTS SYSTEM IN CUBA IS WELL STRUCTURED AND STUDIED, WITH 11.04 MILLION STRUCTURED AND STUDIED, WITH 11.04 MILLION
INHABITANTS, PROJECTIONS OF THE POPULATION INHABITANTS, PROJECTIONS OF THE POPULATION INDICATE THAT ITS GROWTH TENDS TO DECREASE INDICATE THAT ITS GROWTH TENDS TO DECREASE
MAINLY DUE TO THE DESCENT OF FECUNDITYMAINLY DUE TO THE DESCENT OF FECUNDITY
DISPERSE POPULATION DISPERSE POPULATION (0,003 % of total), (0,003 % of total), 2974 INHABIT2974 INHABIT
TOTAL 244TOTAL 244
URBAN 62 URBAN 62 (11%of total)(11%of total) 1,3 1,3
MM INHABIT, 330 000 DWELLING, 12 citiesMM INHABIT, 330 000 DWELLING, 12 cities
RURAL 182 RURAL 182 (0,03 % of total), 52000 INHABIT, 18000 52000 INHABIT, 18000 DWELLING, 79 settlements with more than DWELLING, 79 settlements with more than 200 INHABIT 200 INHABIT
PopulationPopulation 1992 1 410 504 inhabit 1995 1 464 054 inhabit
COASTAL SETTLEMENTSCOASTAL SETTLEMENTS
244244 settlements / settlements / 1 400 0001 400 000 inhabit. / inhabit. / 330 000 000 dwellings dwellings COASTAL SETTLEMENTSCOASTAL SETTLEMENTS
COASTAL SETTLEMENTS LOCATED COASTAL SETTLEMENTS LOCATED TOTALLY OR PARTIALLY BETWEEN TOTALLY OR PARTIALLY BETWEEN
O AND 1 METERO AND 1 METER
98 SETTLEMENTS 50 000 INHABITANS 17 000
DWELLINGS
Urban 42 settlements
Rural 56 settlements
NOWADAYS THERE ARE 53 COASTALNOWADAYS THERE ARE 53 COASTALSETTLEMENTS REPORTING FLOODSSETTLEMENTS REPORTING FLOODSFOR SEA - LEVEL RISE, DUE TO FOR SEA - LEVEL RISE, DUE TO TROPICAL CYCLONES SURGE MAINLYTROPICAL CYCLONES SURGE MAINLY
NOWADAYS THERE ARE 53 COASTALNOWADAYS THERE ARE 53 COASTALSETTLEMENTS REPORTING FLOODSSETTLEMENTS REPORTING FLOODSFOR SEA - LEVEL RISE, DUE TO FOR SEA - LEVEL RISE, DUE TO TROPICAL CYCLONES SURGE MAINLYTROPICAL CYCLONES SURGE MAINLY
VULNERABILITY FACTORSVULNERABILITY FACTORS
•Proximity to shoreline and coast typesProximity to shoreline and coast types•Settlement size and number of inhabitants Settlement size and number of inhabitants •Conditions and type constructive of dwellingsConditions and type constructive of dwellings•Accessibility Accessibility •Population and dwellings below 1 meter highPopulation and dwellings below 1 meter high•Economic base Economic base •Technical infrastructure Technical infrastructure
0
5 0
1 0 0
P O B L A C I O N A S E N T A M .
A C U E D .
A L C A N T .
E L E C T R .
A C C E S O
BUENA REGULAR MALA
URBANOS
RURALES
CWATER QUALITY LIDAD DEL AGUA
GOOD REGULAR BADPOPULATION SETTLEMENTS
AQUEDUC
SEWER
ELECTRICITY
ACCESSIBILITY
URBANOS
RURALS
0 50 100 150 200 250
1828
1932
1958
1999
ha 0 19 0 24 53.5 150 216
1828 1931 1932 1940 1958 1975 1999
ha
año DYNAMIC GROWTH
GEOGRAPHICAL LOCALIZATION
STUDY CASE: Santa Cruz del SurSTUDY CASE: Santa Cruz del Sur
TOPOGRAPHY PROFILE N-S OF THE LOCATION OF SANTA CRUZ DEL SURTOPOGRAPHY PROFILE N-S OF THE LOCATION OF SANTA CRUZ DEL SUR
VERY HIGH
HIGH
MODERATE
RISK GRADE
R I S K A F F E C T E DA R E A ( h a )
%
V E R Y H I G H
3 7
1 7 H I G H 7 8 3 6
M O D E R A T E 1 0 1 4 7
T O T A L
2 1 6
1 0 0
THE SURGE WHICH TOOK PLACE IN 1932, WAS OF 7 METERS HIGH. NOWADAY ITS PROBABILITY IS 1 TIME EVERY 333 YEARS
FLOOD RISK MAP. SANTA CRUZ DEL SUR FLOOD RISK MAP. SANTA CRUZ DEL SUR
VULNERABLE ELEMENTSVULNERABLE ELEMENTSPOPULATION 17125 INHABIT, (9% BELOW 0,5 M)
DWELLINGS 4312 (GOOD AND REGULAR TECHNICAL STATE), EMPLOYMENTS 4123
3200 ha <1m
VULNERABLE CROPS IN COASTAL VULNERABLE CROPS IN COASTAL MUCICIPALITIES Scenario 1m sea level riseMUCICIPALITIES Scenario 1m sea level rise
FORESTS AND VULNERABLE GRASSES IN FORESTS AND VULNERABLE GRASSES IN COASTAL MUNICIPALITIES Scenario 1m sea- COASTAL MUNICIPALITIES Scenario 1m sea-
level riselevel rise
370000 ha <1m
7 DRY 7 DRY
9 SUBHUMID ENVIRONMENT9 SUBHUMID ENVIRONMENT
Subzonas
Dry Subhumid
Annual precipitation <800mm <1000mmmonths of droughts 9-11 8-10evaporation 2000/2400mm >2400mmprec/evap. >60 >40
• 55% OF COASTAL MUNICIPALITIES55% OF COASTAL MUNICIPALITIES
• 132 OF 245 COASTAL SETTLEMENTS 132 OF 245 COASTAL SETTLEMENTS (MOSTLY RURAL)(MOSTLY RURAL)
• 990, 000 INHABITANTS (1995990, 000 INHABITANTS (1995) )
Dry
Subhumid
COASTAL ZONE WITH DRYCOASTAL ZONE WITH DRY ENVIROMENTENVIROMENT
• Prospective impact by climate change and Prospective impact by climate change and extreme events extreme events
• Commitments territorial precedent Commitments territorial precedent
• Sense of ownership of coastal population Sense of ownership of coastal population to area of residence to area of residence
• Potentialities for change in land usePotentialities for change in land use
• Cost of the measures proposals Cost of the measures proposals
CONSIDERATE FACTORS FOR THE CONSIDERATE FACTORS FOR THE MITIGATION AND ADAPTATION MITIGATION AND ADAPTATION
MEASURED MEASURED
PLANNING SCALESPLANNING SCALES
NATIONALNATIONAL
URBANURBAN
PROVINCIALPROVINCIAL
TOTAL 14TOTAL 14
MUNICIPALMUNICIPAL
TOTALTOTAL 169169
RECTOR OF TERRITORIAL AND RECTOR OF TERRITORIAL AND URBANS PLANNING TO DIFFERENT URBANS PLANNING TO DIFFERENT LEVELS AND TEMPORARY LEVELS AND TEMPORARY HORIZONTSHORIZONTS
COORDINATES THE INVESTMENTSCOORDINATES THE INVESTMENTS LOCALIZATION LOCALIZATION
INTEGRATES SECTORIAL AND INTEGRATES SECTORIAL AND TERRITORIAL POLICIESTERRITORIAL POLICIES
PHYSICAL PLANNING PHYSICAL PLANNING ACTIVITYACTIVITY
COASTAL POPULATION PRIORITIESCOASTAL POPULATION PRIORITIES
1 174 738 INHAB1 174 738 INHAB83 % OF 83 % OF
TOTALTOTAL
COASTAL SETTLEMENTS PRIORITIESCOASTAL SETTLEMENTS PRIORITIES
107107
44% OF TOTAL44% OF TOTAL
URBAN 43
RURAL 64
50 000 BELOW 1 METER
52% REPORT FLOODS
ENGINEERING PROJECTSENGINEERING PROJECTS
REGULATIONS URBANS AND THE LAND USE, REGULATIONS URBANS AND THE LAND USE, BUILDING CODES AND SEVERAL LAWSBUILDING CODES AND SEVERAL LAWS
RETREAT ACCOMMODATION PROTECTION RETREAT ACCOMMODATION PROTECTION
STRATEGIES OF ADAPTATIONSTRATEGIES OF ADAPTATION
Mechanisms of execution Mechanisms of execution (administration and control) in the (administration and control) in the territorial planningterritorial planning
STRATEGIES OF ADAPTATIONSTRATEGIES OF ADAPTATION
P R I O R I T Y S E T T L E M E N T I N H A B I T A N
I 9 1 5 2 1 9
I I 9 1 6 7 0 9 5
I I I 3 0 3 7 2 9 4 2
I V 6 2 6 1 9 4 8 2
T O T A L 1 0 7 1 1 7 4 7 3 8
TWO LEVEL
TERRACES 1 METE R AND TWO LEVELS
“BARBACOAS” (LOFTS)
ACCOMMODATIONACCOMMODATION72 SETTLEMENTS
FLOOD MARK
RETREATRETREAT (Irene hurricane / October 1999)(Irene hurricane / October 1999)PLAYA ROSARIO
. Floods by south winds and surges of tropical cyclones. Shoreline retreatment a rate 3m/year
SOUTH COAST(5 (5 settlements)settlements)
SURGE EFFECT
•tons of rocks over the settlement
•25 destroyed dwellings
WETLAND AREA
Playa Rosario Playa Rosario Mitigation Proposal:Mitigation Proposal:
RetreatRetreat
INITIAL PROPOSAL
Decade 1970Bizarrón, 15 km
ACTUAL PROPOSAL
Year 2000
Juan Borrel, 5 km
Shoreline 2,5 km inhabitants 650
PROTECTIONPROTECTION 8 settlements 8 settlements
LOCAL REUBICATIONLOCAL REUBICATION 15 settlements15 settlements
NOT GROWTHNOT GROWTH 13 settlements13 settlements
• AREA AFFECTED 52 HAAREA AFFECTED 52 HA
• INFLUENCE AREA 183 HAINFLUENCE AREA 183 HA
• AFFECTED POPULATION 45,800 INHABITAFFECTED POPULATION 45,800 INHABIT
• DWELLINGS 12,041 DWELLINGS 12,041
ADAPTATION STRATEGIES
•ADVANCED ENGINEERING PROJECTS •URBAN REGULATIONS
VULNERABILITY OF HAVANA CITYVULNERABILITY OF HAVANA CITY
COAST SUMMARYCOAST SUMMARY
About 250 km of coast has been urbanizedAbout 250 km of coast has been urbanized (industries, tourism, port, settlements) (industries, tourism, port, settlements)
There are 244 coastal settlements, 63 are urban There are 244 coastal settlements, 63 are urban and 181 are rural onesand 181 are rural ones
Coastal total population is 1.4 MM inhabitants Coastal total population is 1.4 MM inhabitants and represent a 13% of all population in theand represent a 13% of all population in the countrycountry
52 coastal settlements report floods52 coastal settlements report floods
50 000 inhabitants of 98 coastal settlements50 000 inhabitants of 98 coastal settlements live under a 1 meter highlive under a 1 meter high
Yearly, in Havana city, other 50 000 inhabitantsYearly, in Havana city, other 50 000 inhabitants exposed annually to coastal floodsexposed annually to coastal floods There isn´t significant disperse population inThere isn´t significant disperse population in the coastal zonethe coastal zone The areas of crops are not very vulnerable to The areas of crops are not very vulnerable to sea - level risesea - level rise The presence of natural forests is highly The presence of natural forests is highly significant, mainly mangrovessignificant, mainly mangroves 440 beaches (588 km) are affected440 beaches (588 km) are affected The eastern region of Cuba is the most affectedThe eastern region of Cuba is the most affected area by drought in the current and perspective area by drought in the current and perspective
107 coastal settlements require adaptation107 coastal settlements require adaptation and mitigation measuresand mitigation measures
GENERAL CONCLUSIONSGENERAL CONCLUSIONS
IT HAS BEEN DETERMINED THE IT HAS BEEN DETERMINED THE VULNERABILITY OF COASTAL SETTLEMENTS VULNERABILITY OF COASTAL SETTLEMENTS TO DESERTIFICATION AND SEA LEVEL RISE TO DESERTIFICATION AND SEA LEVEL RISE BY CLIMATE CHANGE AND EXTREME EVENTSBY CLIMATE CHANGE AND EXTREME EVENTS
TERRITORIAL AND URBAN PLANNING IN TERRITORIAL AND URBAN PLANNING IN CUBA IS THE RIGHT WAY TO FACE THE CUBA IS THE RIGHT WAY TO FACE THE ADAPTATION OF THE COASTAL ZONES TO ADAPTATION OF THE COASTAL ZONES TO THE GLOBAL CHANGES WITH THE POPULAR THE GLOBAL CHANGES WITH THE POPULAR PARTICIPATION.PARTICIPATION.
Carlos Rodríguez OteroCarlos Rodríguez Otero
Ada Luisa Pérez Hernández,Ada Luisa Pérez Hernández,
Instituto de Planificación Física Instituto de Planificación Física
La Habana, Cuba La Habana, Cuba Email : ipf ceniai.inf.cuEmail : ipf ceniai.inf.cu
Isidro Salas GarcíaIsidro Salas García
Instituto de MeteorologíaInstituto de Meteorología
La Habana, CubaLa Habana, Cuba
Email: meteoro ceniai.inf.cuEmail: meteoro ceniai.inf.cu