BUSINESS SURVEY - bi.go.id · The majority of survey respondents (54.20%) acknowledged that...

Real Sector Statistics Division 1

Business Survey

QUARTER IV-2017

The Bank Indonesia Business Survey revealed slower business growth in the

fourth quarter of 2017, mirroring cyclical trends. Such developments were

reflected by a decline in weighted net balance (WNB) from 14.32% in the

third quarter of 2017 to 7.40% in the fourth quarter of 2017. By sector,

respondents confirmed the slump was precipitated by less business activity in

the agricultural, plantation, livestock and forestry sector, with the

corresponding WNB contracting by -1.40% due to seasonal factors and

inclement weather. Furthermore, declining business activity was reported in

the manufacturing industry, as demonstrated by the WNB sinking from

1.76% to -0.12% in the reporting period.

The survey also highlighted that congruent with business moderation,

average production capacity utilisation declined to 75.05% in the fourth

quarter of 2017, down slightly from 75.99% in the previous period. In

addition, respondents confirmed that labour utilisation slowed in the fourth

quarter of 2017, reflected by a WNB contraction of -0.89%, decreasing from

0.13% in the third quarter of 2017.

Notwithstanding, respondents expected businesses to rebound in the first

quarter of 2018, indicated by a bump in the WNB to 13.96%. Optimism also

stemmed from predicted gains in terms of labour utilisation and investment

on the previous period. By sector, respondents predicted business activity to

accelerate in all sectors, especially the financial, real estate and corporate

services sector, services sector and manufacturing industry. A vibrant

manufacturing industry outlook was substantiated by Prompt Manufacturing

Index data, which pointed to an expansionary phase at 51.95% in the first

quarter of 2018.

A. Business Activity

Respondents reported slower business growth in the fourth quarter of

2017, mirroring cyclical trends. Such developments were reflected by a significant

decline in the WNB from 14.32% in the third quarter of 2017 to 7.40% in the fourth

quarter of 2017 (Graph 1). By sector, respondents confirmed the slump was

precipitated by less business activity in the agricultural, plantation, livestock and

forestry sector, with the corresponding WNB contracting by -1.40%. Furthermore, the

food crop subsector was the main drag on the agricultural, plantation, livestock and

forestry sector. Most respondents (55.96%) cited seasonal factors and inclement

weather for the business contraction experienced in the fourth quarter of 2017.

BUSINESS SURVEY

Business activity slowed in

QIII-2014

Respondents reported slower business

growth in the fourth quarter of

2017.

Methodology

The Business Survey has been conducted quarterly since the first quarter of 1993. In Quarter III-2017, the Survey was extended to 3,039 enterprises spread

throughout all regions of the Indonesian archipelago, selected using purposive sampling. Statistically, the respondents have a sampling error of 2% at a 5% level

of significance. Data is collated through respondent questionnaires either by hardcopy or by online on BI website. The data is calculated using the net balance

method, namely by calculating the difference between the percentage of respondents whose answers increased, those whose answers decreased and those

whose answers remained the same. In the case of calculating the net balance of business activity, selling price and labour utilization are calculated using the net

weighted balance method. The weight reflected the contribution of each sector to GDP. Since Quarter I-2014, the Survey has been conducted in the last month

of the current quarter (one month earlier than usual). In addition, the questionnaire improvement and integrated web-based application both were developed.


Business Survey

In addition to the agricultural, plantation, livestock and forestry sector,

respondents from the manufacturing industry also reported a contraction (WNB

-0.12%), while five other sectors also confirmed a downswing, in particular the mining

and quarrying sector (WNB falling from 1.60% to 0.08%).

Graph 1. Business Activity

Respondents expected businesses to rebound in the first quarter of 2018,

indicated by a bump in the WNB from 7.40% to 13.96%. All economic sectors were

expected to rebound in the first quarter of 2018, with the financial, real estate and

corporate services sector (WNB 3.16%), services sector (WNB 2.56%) and

manufacturing industry (WNB 2.41%) referred to as the main drivers of growth. In

general, the respondents expected business activity to accelerate in the first quarter of

2018 to satiate domestic demand, supported by the availability of diverse production

means.

B. Production Capacity

Respondents confirmed that average production capacity utilisation had

declined on the previous period. The Survey revealed that congruent with business

moderation, average production capacity utilisation stood at 75.05% in the fourth

quarter of 2017, down slightly from 75.99% in the previous period (Graph 2). By

sector, respondents from the utilities sector (electricity, gas and water supply) reported

the highest level of production capacity utilisation (81.14%), contrasting the lowest

reported in the agricultural, plantation, livestock and forestry sector (71.42%).

Average production capacity

utilisation declined on the

previous period.

Respondents expected businesses to

rebound in the first quarter of

2018.


Business Survey

Graph 2. Capacity Utilisation

C. Financial Condition and Access to Credit

In general, corporate financial performance remained sound in the fourth

quarter of 2017, confirmed by a net balance (NB) of 37.62% for corporate liquidity,

which was down slightly on the previous period at 37.86%. The majority of survey

respondents (54.20%) acknowledged that liquidity conditions were adequate in the

fourth quarter of 2017, while 41.71% stated that liquidity had improved and only

4.09% conceded that corporate liquidity had deteriorated on the previous period.

In terms of profitability, however, the survey revealed that the NB of corporate

profitability increased from 41.41% to 42.16% in the reporting period. More than

half of the respondents (51.66%) confirmed that corporate profitability was sound in

the fourth quarter of 2017, while 45.25% stated that profitability had improved on

the previous period and just 3.09% confessed that corporate profitability had declined

in the reporting period.

In terms of access to credit, the Business Survey demonstrated that access to

bank loans was generally considered normal, with the corresponding NB for the past

3 months recorded at 4.30%. Consistent with maintained corporate financial

conditions, most respondents (69.18%) confirmed that access to bank loans was still

normal, while 17.56% thought that access to credit had improved and 13.26%

argued that access was becoming more difficult compared to conditions three months

earlier.

D. Labour Utilisation

In line with business moderation, respondents confirmed that labour

utilisation slowed in the fourth quarter of 2017, reflected by a WNB contraction of

-0.89%, down from 0.13% in the third quarter of 2017. Respondents from four

economic sectors reported declines in labour utilisation, particularly the manufacturing

industry (WNB -1.19%), followed by the mining and quarrying sector (WNB -0.89%)

and the agricultural, plantation, livestock and forestry sector (WNB -0.16%).

75

.9

9

75

.0

5

71.42

69.68

74.25

73.37

81.14

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

Q I QII QIII QIV QI QII QIII QIV QI QII QIII QIV

2015 2016 2017

T O T A L AGRICULTURE, LIVESTOCK, FORESTRY & FISHERY

MINING & QUARRYING MANUFACTURING INDUSTRY

ELECTRICITY, GAS AND WATER SUPPLY

( % )

Respondents confirmed that labour

utilisation slowed in the fourth

quarter of 2017.

Corporate liquidity and

profitability were maintained in

the fourth quarter of 2017.

Respondents still considered access

to credit as relatively normal.


Business Survey

Graph 3. Labour Utilisation

Respondents predicted labour utilisation to increase in the first quarter of

2018, evidenced by an uptick in the WNB to 5.80%. By sector, the mining and

quarrying sector reported the largest increase in labour utilisation (WNB 2.74%),

followed by the financial, real estate and corporate services sector (WNB 1.56%), with

all other sectors also reporting labour utilisation gains.

E. Selling Prices

Respondents acknowledged a build-up of inflationary pressures in the

fourth quarter of 2017, reflected by an increase in the WNB from 12.03% in the

previous period to 13.45%. The mining and quarrying sector enjoyed the strongest

selling price gains (WNB 3.34%), followed by the trade, hotels and restaurants sector

(WNB 3.26%) and the agricultural, plantation, livestock and forestry sector (WNB

3.23%).

In general, respondents in the mining and quarrying sector as well as the

agricultural, plantation, livestock and forestry sector blamed rising selling prices on

more expensive raw materials and relatively limited supply, while respondents from

the trade, hotels and restaurants sector explained that seasonal demand factors during

the school and national holidays had pushed up prices.

Graph 4. Selling Price

0.13 (0.89)

5.80

-4.0

1.0

6.0

11.0

I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I*

2015 2016 2017 2018

% WNB

*) Expectation

Realisation

Espectation

12.03

13.45

15.76

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I*

2015 2016 2017 2018

% WNB

*) Expectation

Realisation

Espectation

Respondents

acknowledged a build-up

of inflationary pressures.


Business Survey

Respondents predicted that the inflationary pressures would persist into the

first quarter of 2018, reflecting a WNB of 15.76%. Inflationary pressures were

expected to be most intense in the manufacturing industry (WNB 4.33%), followed by

the trade, hotels and restaurants sector (WNB 4.07%) as well as the agricultural,

plantation, livestock and forestry sector (WNB 2.50%). In general, the respondents

specified rising prices of raw materials and other materials for the upside pressures on

selling prices in the first quarter of 2018.

F. Inflation

On average, respondents predicted inflation in 2017 at 3.45% (yoy), lower

than actual inflation in 2017 (3.61%, yoy) but still within the inflation target of

4.0±1%.

Respondents from the electricity, gas and water supply sector as well as the

financial, real estate and corporate services sector predicted the highest rate of

inflation at 3.60% (yoy) respectively.

G. Investment

Despite lacklustre business investment activity in the fourth quarter of

2017, respondents were more inclined to invest, reflecting a moderate increase in

the WNB of investment realisation from 10.66% to 10.68%. By sector, respondents

from the manufacturing industry were most inclined to invest, with the corresponding

WNB rising from 1.31% to 2.44% in the reporting period (Appendix Table 7).

Furthermore, respondents predicted more intense investment activity in the

first quarter of 2018. The prediction was explained by an increase in the WNB of

expected investment to 15.21%, with the mining and quarrying sector as well as the

manufacturing industry most inclined to boost investment, registering a WNB of

3.07% and 3.04% respectively.

By semester, fewer respondents were engaged in investment activity during

the second half of 2017 but the investments were worth more. The results of the

Business Survey revealed that 17.88% of respondents conducted investment activity

in the second semester of 2017, down from 18.72% in the first half of the year.

Nevertheless, the value of those investments was higher compared to the previous

period, indicated by a NB of 66.67%, up from 53.82% in the first semester of 2017.

Most businesses invested in machinery and buildings/factories, confirmed by

29.12% and 25.17% of respondents respectively. The majority of respondents

(54.81%) engaged in new investments, while 21.72% favoured replacement

investments. According to the respondents, several factors impeded planned

investment, including licensing constraints (21.98% of respondents), interest rates

(14.13%) and infrastructure conditions (13.30%).

Respondents predicted investment activity to pick up in the first semester

of 2018. The Survey showed that 19.44% of respondents will invest in the first half

of 2018, up from 17.88% in the second semester quarter of 2017. Nominally,

Respondents predicted

inflation in 2017 at 3.45%.

Respondents were more

inclined to invest in the fourth

quarter of 2017.

Businesses confirmed less

investment activity in the first

half of 2017 compared to the

second semester of 2016.


Business Survey

respondents expected the value of investments to decrease on the previous period but

surpass that achieved in the first semester of 2017. The NB of investment in first

semester of 2018 stood at 56.16%, down from 66.67% in the second semester of

2017 but up from 53.82% in the first semester of 2017.

H. Prompt Manufacturing Index (PMI)*

Prompt Manufacturing Index (PMI) data pointed to a fourth-quarter

slowdown in the manufacturing industry, indicated by a contractionary index of

48.75%, slipping from an expansionary 50.51% in the previous period (Graph 5).

Such dynamics were in line with moderating business activity in the manufacturing

industry, as demonstrated by the WNB sinking from 1.76% to -0.12% in the reporting

period.

All PMI components contributed to the manufacturing industry contraction in

the fourth quarter of 2017, most significantly the labour index (47.95%), followed by

inventories (48.30%) and speed of supplier deliveries (48.73%).

Graph 5. Prompt Manufacturing Index

In the first quarter of 2018, respondents predicted manufacturing industry

performance to improve, as evidenced by the PMI pushing back into expansionary

territory (51.95%) in line with increasing business activity in the sector (WNB

2.41%). By component, the manufacturing industry will expand on the back of

production volume (60.69%) as well as labour index and inventories index, which

remain in a contractionary phase at 49.85% and 49.49% respectively but have

improved from 47.95% and 48.30%.

50.51

48.75

51.95

2.76

2.17

-1.00

-0.50

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

42.00

44.00

46.00

48.00

50.00

52.00

54.00

56.00

58.00

I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I*

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

(% qtq)(Index)

PMI (LHS) GDP growth - Manufacturing Industry*) Expectation

CO

NT

RA

CT

ION

EX

PA

NS

ION

Prompt Manufacturing Index

data pointed to a fourth-

quarter slowdown in the

manufacturing industry.

---------------------

*) PMI-BIBS represents a composite indicator designed to provide an overview of manufacturing sector performance in

Indonesia. PMI-BIBS is a composite index comprised of five other indices, namely new order volume (input), production

volume (output), employment, supplier delivery times and inventory. PMI calculation is based on a pre-assessment of

benchmarked Purchasing Manufacturing Indices from a number of other countries. An index reading of above 50 signals

business expansion, while a reading of below 50 indicates a contraction.


Business Survey

Graph 6. PMI Indicators

Percentage Response

in Q IV-2017

Production Volume Index

Supplier Delivery Time Index

Inventory Index

Order Volume Index


Business Survey

Labour Index


Table 1. Business Activity

(Weighted Net Balance - WNB)

* Expectation

Table 2. Production Capacity Utilisation

(%)

Table 3. Other Indicators

(Net Balance - NB)

Q I Q II Q III QIV Q I Q II Q III QIV Q I Q II Q III QIV Q I Q II Q III QIV Q I*

Agriculture, livestock, forestry and fisheries 2.14 2.10 0.81 1.63 1.94 1.12 -0.17 -0.70 1.03 2.38 1.75 -4.07 1.98 1.57 0.40 -1.40 1.48

Mining and Quarrying -3.38 1.03 -3.30 -1.76 -1.12 -1.03 -0.34 -1.18 -1.30 1.69 0.44 -1.82 -2.14 -1.63 1.60 0.08 0.08

Manufacturing Industry -2.65 3.39 1.36 1.76 -0.72 1.91 -0.84 -0.34 -0.77 3.41 1.09 1.44 -0.58 3.81 1.76 -0.12 2.41

Utilities (electricity, gas and water) 0.19 0.28 0.26 0.25 0.20 0.26 0.19 0.19 0.17 0.24 0.25 0.28 0.38 0.31 0.26 0.30 0.32

Construction -0.67 0.42 1.03 0.57 -0.16 0.37 0.22 0.22 0.59 0.20 0.90 0.88 -0.35 0.68 0.67 0.03 0.85

Trade, hotels and restaurants -0.19 4.04 4.02 2.44 -0.35 0.47 -0.54 0.10 -0.48 3.69 1.64 0.75 -0.99 4.32 1.94 1.28 1.79

Transport and Communication -0.11 1.19 1.46 0.78 0.34 3.16 2.04 1.52 2.10 1.87 1.11 0.95 0.32 1.81 0.72 1.05 1.31

Financial, real estate and corporate services 2.47 3.65 3.29 3.39 2.53 2.92 1.93 2.10 1.77 2.58 2.45 2.47 2.31 3.11 3.18 2.91 3.16

Services 4.32 4.96 2.33 2.07 2.18 2.72 2.57 1.10 2.69 2.34 3.58 2.26 3.87 3.38 3.78 3.28 2.56

T O T A L 2.11 21.05 11.25 11.13 4.83 11.90 5.06 3.02 5.80 18.40 13.20 3.13 4.80 17.36 14.32 7.40 13.96

201820162015 2017

S E C T O R S

2014

Q I Q II Q III Q IV Q I QII QIII QIV QI QII QIII QIV QI QII QIII QIV

AGRICULTURE, LIVESTOCK, FORESTRY & FISHERY 79.48 75.94 78.29 81.76 71.74 79.15 78.74 76.76 78.21 77.12 77.63 75.65 74.84 77.01 74.48 71.42

- Farm Food Crops 84.18 81.45 80.43 82.91 80.77 83.60 82.24 77.74 82.39 82.94 79.48 79.48 76.81 81.66 77.00 71.25

- Non-food Crops 77.75 77.40 80.58 81.65 73.26 78.60 77.73 75.06 75.12 74.27 73.09 73.09 78.51 77.41 74.10 69.55

- Livestock & Products 84.74 77.13 77.13 81.29 79.27 86.74 82.76 80.34 86.81 82.29 80.11 76.50 72.41 73.97 76.75 77.28

- Forestry 80.35 65.92 76.21 81.60 63.64 78.89 76.55 76.18 78.57 75.26 78.83 78.83 78.31 76.00 71.21 75.58

- Fishery 70.39 77.82 77.11 81.33 61.75 67.93 74.44 74.50 68.16 70.85 76.63 70.37 71.08 76.02 73.34 63.41

MINING & QUARRYING70.79 76.91 83.02 79.01 69.68 77.41 72.68 72.82 69.56 78.03 77.08 73.06 74.52 75.04 73.73 74.25

MANUFACTURING INDUSTRY

74.21 77.37 74.65 76.70 74.33 75.89 68.46 70.47 71.23 70.33 73.15 74.59 74.02 75.65 74.53 73.37

- Food, Beverages and Tobacco 74.66 77.83 75.06 79.37 75.54 77.35 73.80 76.64 75.92 77.43 75.30 76.58 75.15 76.84 74.13 73.64

- Textile, Leather products and Footwear 77.66 80.95 77.27 76.78 77.38 80.68 76.61 78.15 78.51 79.84 75.50 79.81 78.30 78.68 78.66 76.65

- Wood products & Other wood products 70.00 72.23 72.38 71.23 72.57 75.77 69.77 75.94 70.47 74.24 73.34 76.61 74.05 77.49 75.36 76.76

- Paper and Printing 68.57 73.61 76.59 83.91 74.96 76.75 79.50 78.45 72.58 80.06 72.97 72.97 69.37 75.74 74.97 78.79

- Fertilizers, Chemicals and Rubber products 77.22 75.16 76.17 78.52 74.74 78.63 78.59 76.35 73.32 72.83 77.81 77.81 75.84 74.30 75.63 75.59

- Cement and Non metalic mineral products 83.14 69.38 71.73 74.55 76.16 80.41 85.39 87.29 75.21 77.50 77.11 69.90 73.26 73.17 73.50 70.06

- Iron and Basic steel 68.54 74.16 71.49 74.47 66.88 72.60 64.29 69.29 64.59 65.53 62.55 69.43 68.87 73.79 75.16 69.51

- Transport equipment, Machinery & Apparatus 72.41 77.70 76.11 72.11 73.72 64.26 71.26 68.42 65.52 68.78 68.42 71.55 76.04 74.00 69.67 65.90

- Other manufacturing products 72.15 75.72 75.02 79.33 76.98 76.55 75.41 79.12 76.18 77.12 75.31 76.62 75.34 76.86 73.69 72.67

ELECTRICITY, GAS AND WATER SUPPLY77.67 77.67 76.75 81.65 76.51 78.84 81.56 80.88 83.98 82.56 76.98 81.81 83.70 80.53 81.21 81.14

75.54 76.97 78.18 79.78 73.06 77.82 75.36 75.23 75.75 77.01 76.21 76.28 76.92 77.06 75.99 75.05

20172015 20162014

T O T A L

S E C T O R S

Q I Q II Q III Q IV Q I Q II Q III Q IV Q I Q II Q III Q IV Q I Q II Q III Q IV

Financial condition over past three months:

- Liquidity

Better 44.47 43.17 32.64 28.35 26.08 38.22 26.64 34.60 39.34 40.89 38.94 40.89 41.19 41.75 41.70 41.71

Same 52.18 54.17 63.60 66.75 63.37 56.46 64.86 60.49 56.07 55.87 57.25 55.56 53.37 54.19 54.46 54.20

Worse 3.35 2.66 3.77 4.91 10.56 5.32 8.51 4.91 4.59 3.24 3.80 3.55 5.44 4.06 3.84 4.09

Net Balance (% Good - % Bad) 41.12 40.52 28.87 23.44 15.52 32.90 18.13 29.70 34.75 37.66 35.14 37.35 35.75 37.69 37.86 37.62

- Earnings

Better 42.78 40.66 31.31 26.60 24.51 36.34 24.99 34.11 36.74 41.96 40.19 40.65 42.86 44.11 44.32 45.25

Same 54.10 56.72 64.47 68.53 65.23 58.26 66.75 60.77 58.40 55.04 56.18 56.05 52.41 53.03 52.77 51.66

Worse 3.12 2.62 4.22 4.87 10.26 5.40 8.26 5.12 4.86 3.00 3.64 3.30 4.73 2.86 2.91 3.09

Net Balance (% Good - % Bad) 39.66 38.04 27.09 21.74 14.25 30.95 16.73 28.99 31.88 38.96 36.55 37.35 38.13 41.25 41.41 42.16

Access to credit over past three months:

Easy 22.49 20.56 17.96 19.87 19.65 22.10 17.08 19.53 24.21 22.51 21.56 21.61 23.58 19.53 19.83 17.56

Normal 60.73 63.24 65.63 64.06 62.95 62.00 63.18 62.94 58.35 63.18 65.34 63.86 63.13 68.35 69.06 69.18

Tight 16.78 16.20 16.41 16.07 17.40 15.90 19.73 17.53 17.44 14.31 13.10 14.53 13.28 12.12 11.11 13.26

Net Balance (% Easy - % Tight) 5.71 4.36 1.55 3.81 2.26 6.20 -2.65 2.00 6.77 8.20 8.45 7.07 10.30 7.41 8.72 4.30

2015 20162014

I N D I C A T O R S

2017

Appendix


Table 4. Labour Utilisation

(Weighted Net Balance WNB)

* Expectation

Table 5. Selling Price


* Expectation

Table 6. Annual Inflation Expectations

(% of respondents)

2018

Q I Q II Q III QIV Q I Q II Q III QIV QI Q II Q III QIV QI Q II Q III QIV QI*

Agriculture, livestock, forestry and fisheries 0.21 0.53 0.19 0.26 0.48 -0.34 -0.11 -0.22 0.90 0.48 -0.31 -0.67 0.06 0.09 -0.35 -0.16 0.14

Mining and Quarrying 0.25 -0.22 0.21 -1.79 -2.24 -1.33 -1.34 -1.24 0.25 -0.86 -1.12 -1.76 0.15 -0.13 0.91 -0.89 2.74

Manufacturing Industry -2.08 0.13 0.01 -0.85 -0.11 -0.99 -0.90 -1.86 -1.95 -0.02 -1.35 -0.94 -0.49 0.90 -0.87 -1.19 -0.40

Utilities (electricity, gas and water) -0.12 -0.02 0.05 -0.06 -0.03 0.01 0.01 -0.03 -0.01 0.13 0.02 0.07 0.06 0.09 0.10 0.11 0.12

Construction -0.07 0.04 0.00 0.06 -0.33 0.29 0.09 0.29 0.23 0.16 0.35 0.22 -0.42 0.00 0.09 0.03 0.26

Trade, hotels and restaurants 0.45 0.54 0.18 0.24 -0.96 -0.01 -0.57 0.00 -0.55 0.86 -0.65 0.08 -0.08 0.87 -0.76 0.33 1.16

Transport and Communication 0.09 0.15 0.48 0.36 0.25 1.00 -0.26 0.11 0.33 0.04 0.18 0.22 0.03 0.16 -0.05 -0.12 0.15

Financial, real estate and corporate services 2.29 1.79 1.60 1.45 1.21 1.39 0.84 0.80 0.97 0.99 0.38 0.68 1.18 0.87 0.72 0.47 1.56

Services 0.58 -0.06 -0.11 0.26 -0.42 0.70 0.49 0.20 1.77 0.54 0.64 0.18 0.76 1.38 0.33 0.55 0.07

T O T A L 1.58 2.90 2.62 -0.07 -2.15 0.73 -1.75 -1.94 1.94 2.32 -1.85 -1.93 1.25 4.23 0.13 -0.89 5.80

S E C T O R S

2017201620152014

2018

Q I Q II Q III QIV Q I Q II Q III QIV Q I Q II Q III QIV Q I Q II Q III QIV Q I*

Agriculture, livestock, forestry and fisheries 2.91 4.08 3.04 6.62 4.50 4.97 5.46 4.41 2.19 2.95 2.63 2.61 1.26 0.66 2.25 3.23 2.50

Mining and Quarrying 1.25 3.77 -0.95 0.22 -0.68 -1.57 -0.59 -0.37 0.54 1.59 1.26 2.51 -1.63 0.39 2.13 3.34 2.45

Manufacturing Industry 7.07 5.53 3.88 4.96 3.03 3.25 1.71 1.30 4.19 3.35 1.66 1.80 3.17 2.84 2.09 2.05 4.33

Utilities (electricity, gas and water) 0.20 0.16 0.33 0.28 0.29 0.25 0.16 0.20 0.07 0.17 0.12 0.26 0.29 0.30 0.22 0.22 0.18

Construction 1.45 0.88 1.58 2.25 1.68 1.57 1.54 1.52 1.37 0.82 1.67 0.71 0.95 1.04 0.78 0.79 1.30

Trade, hotels and restaurants 4.99 5.03 4.61 6.45 4.83 5.14 5.29 4.62 4.20 3.42 3.17 2.71 4.71 2.97 2.83 3.26 4.07

Transport and Communication 0.63 0.84 0.87 1.89 0.94 1.03 0.87 0.69 0.30 0.59 0.50 0.44 0.49 0.78 0.34 0.56 0.53

Financial, real estate and corporate services 2.27 1.27 1.94 1.88 1.29 1.09 0.82 0.97 0.08 -1.27 -0.48 -0.13 -0.04 0.17 0.04 -0.53 -0.15

Services 2.10 0.48 0.85 1.80 1.15 1.57 1.45 0.65 1.53 1.19 1.37 0.43 0.82 0.78 1.34 0.53 0.55

T O T A L 22.86 22.03 16.15 26.36 17.04 17.30 16.72 14.00 14.48 12.81 11.90 11.35 10.03 9.92 12.03 13.45 15.76

201620152014 2017

S E C T O R S

Q1-2015

Survey

Q2-2015

Survey

Q3-2015

Survey

Q4-2015

Survey

Q1-2016

Survey

Q2-2016

Survey

Q3-2016

Survey

Q4-2016

Survey

Q1-2017

Survey

Q2-2017

Survey

Q3-2017

Survey

Q4-2017

Survey

Agriculture, livestock, forestry and fisheries 6.17 4.34 4.12 3.40 3.43 3.66 3.61 3.46 3.58 3.63 3.58 3.49

Mining and Quarrying 5.81 4.55 4.44 3.63 3.54 3.63 3.77 3.54 3.53 3.15 3.21 3.39

Manufacturing Industry 6.29 4.51 4.23 3.60 3.41 3.73 3.58 3.48 3.49 3.56 3.59 3.45

Utilities (electricity, gas and water) 6.06 4.27 3.91 3.54 3.61 3.42 3.53 3.23 3.50 3.54 2.29 3.60

Construction 6.27 4.31 4.45 3.65 3.65 3.47 3.65 3.47 3.60 3.46 3.67 3.30

Trade, hotels and restaurants 6.20 4.42 4.36 3.45 3.59 3.63 3.51 3.45 3.54 3.56 3.62 3.53

Transport and Communication 6.26 4.44 4.31 3.46 3.47 3.71 3.56 3.33 3.51 3.50 1.67 3.39

Financial, real estate and corporate services 6.31 4.60 4.59 3.74 3.71 3.64 3.64 3.60 3.69 3.63 3.47 3.60

Services 6.37 4.29 4.12 3.21 3.52 3.64 3.49 3.28 3.39 3.55 4.03 3.30

TOTAL 6.19 4.42 4.28 3.52 3.55 3.61 3.59 3.43 3.54 3.51 3.24 3.45

Inflation Target 4.0 ± 1

EXPECTATION FOR 2015

4.0 ± 1


4.0 ± 1


S E C T O R S


Table 7a. Realisation of Investment**


* Expectation

** Realisation of investment start to be asked since QI-2014

Table 7b. Realisation of Investment(Semi annually)


2018

QI QII QIII QIV QI QII QIII QIV QI QII QIII QIV QI*

Agriculture, livestock, forestry and fisheries 2.03 0.93 1.25 1.26 0.99 1.58 0.51 1.08 0.67 1.15 0.82 0.85 1.35

Mining and Quarrying 1.34 0.94 0.71 0.23 -0.48 1.79 -0.02 0.06 -0.89 1.29 1.94 1.75 3.07

Manufacturing Industry 1.69 0.56 0.16 -0.02 -0.64 1.00 0.95 2.44 -0.21 1.36 1.31 2.44 3.04

Utilities (electricity, gas and water) 0.10 0.22 0.18 0.13 0.12 0.22 0.21 0.20 0.29 0.29 0.24 0.25 0.30

Construction 0.46 0.49 0.47 0.49 0.03 0.46 0.83 0.54 0.58 0.49 0.32 0.32 0.61

Trade, hotels and restaurants 1.01 1.80 0.94 1.33 1.08 1.83 1.42 1.76 1.82 1.88 1.30 1.43 1.88

Transport and Communication 0.79 0.81 0.77 1.04 0.69 0.78 0.77 0.92 1.15 0.71 0.74 0.60 0.67

Financial, real estate and corporate services 2.28 2.23 1.45 2.61 2.24 1.83 1.90 2.24 1.82 2.28 2.02 2.32 2.58

Services 1.23 1.61 0.79 1.38 2.07 1.34 1.34 1.64 1.99 1.13 1.97 0.73 1.72

T O T A L 10.93 9.60 6.71 8.44 6.10 10.82 7.92 10.88 7.21 10.58 10.66 10.68 15.21

2017

S E C T O R S

2015 2016

2018

Smt I Smt II Smt I Smt II Smt I Smt II Smt I*

REALISATION

Realization of Investment (% respondent) 21.27 20.29 19.36 19.10 18.72 17.88 19.44

Amount of the investment (SB) 46.99 67.22 60.85 64.55 53.82 66.67 56.16

Purpose of Investment (%) 1)

New investment 54.90 60.45 59.06 55.70 58.11 54.81

Replacement 22.14 15.96 23.25 24.61 21.00 21.72

New investment and replacement 22.96 23.59 17.69 19.69 20.89 23.48

Types of Investment (% respondent's answer)1)

Land 13.17 13.73 15.01 13.81 14.73 14.79

Building / Factory 25.87 25.35 26.21 25.93 25.68 25.17

Transportation 17.13 16.67 16.97 17.17 18.15 17.38

Machinery 25.17 26.53 23.21 24.85 24.89 29.12

Other Equipment 18.65 17.72 18.59 18.25 16.55 13.54

Limiting factors of investment (%)

Rate 16.75 18.88 14.48 13.36 15.46 14.13

Security factor 6.80 7.43 5.12 6.50 7.23 6.93

Tax 5.95 8.13 7.49 7.45 7.01 9.14

Regulation 10.92 9.44 9.36 9.57 11.68 10.34

Labour 7.16 8.03 8.86 9.34 7.90 9.23

Administration 16.63 17.67 18.48 21.99 19.24 21.98

Infrastructur 12.01 10.54 12.11 13.12 13.46 13.30

Acces to bank loan 8.25 8.13 10.11 5.91 6.23 6.37

Others** 15.53 11.75 13.98 12.77 11.79 8.59

2015 2016 2017INVESTMENT


Table 8. Prompt Manufacturing Index (%)

Production

Volume Order Volume

Speed of Supplier

Delivery Tme Inventory Labour

2011 I 49.11 46.18 46.67 48.70 46.42 47.28

II 56.35 49.91 48.43 49.48 50.61 51.40

III 54.21 50.51 47.98 49.58 48.91 50.64

IV 53.89 51.07 47.18 48.44 49.22 50.56

2012 I 51.15 47.51 47.07 47.96 49.73 48.85

II 59.64 51.39 47.57 50.26 51.65 52.82

III 50.00 48.86 47.36 50.26 49.47 49.18

IV 54.51 49.08 46.78 49.54 46.69 49.66

2013 I 50.18 45.41 45.76 48.23 46.64 47.18

II 59.86 50.10 48.51 50.80 50.10 52.37

III 51.12 49.23 47.41 48.97 47.07 48.97

IV 57.99 55.17 47.37 50.66 48.87 52.99

2014 I 49.83 46.66 48.63 49.74 49.40 48.60

II 59.80 50.00 48.47 51.38 50.38 52.43

III 52.78 47.29 48.24 50.37 48.98 49.45

IV 53.25 45.93 47.20 49.73 48.73 48.89

2015 I 41.89 45.08 45.12 49.87 46.04 44.96

II 60.03 44.96 47.75 50.39 47.91 50.28

III 46.32 45.94 46.32 49.34 46.10 46.46

IV 52.64 45.11 47.67 49.02 47.44 48.23

2016 I 47.20 45.21 47.35 49.04 46.61 46.69

II 59.08 50.22 48.39 52.42 50.22 52.38

III 52.39 47.01 48.28 48.95 47.01 48.74

IV 55.12 51.04 48.64 48.08 48.56 50.91

2017 I 47.70 48.17 48.31 49.16 48.62 47.93

II 57.53 48.23 49.41 50.74 51.70 51.68

III 54.78 49.79 49.07 48.64 48.29 50.51

IV 49.36 48.94 48.73 48.30 47.95 48.75

2018 I* 60.69 48.61 48.54 49.49 49.85 51.95

Period

Component

PMI

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