Business cycele and workplace injury

Association Between Business Cycle and Occupational injury P:1/29

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Understanding the Association Between Business Cycle and Occupational injury


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�� National-Level

0

100,000

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500,000

86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12

GDP(Nomial USD-Million)

Business Cycle 1986-2012 ��GDP� �1.��2. � � � � � � � � � �� ( � � � )

• 1997� � � � ! => " # $ 1998• 2000 Y2K=> " % $ 2001-2003• 2008� � ! => " % $ 2009


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-10

0

10

20

30

86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12

dGDP(%) Growth Rate(%)

National-Level

Business Cycle GDP� � � � � � �1. & " # ' ( ) * � � � � � + ,1997� � � � ! - . / 0 �1 2 3 42. � � � 1995� 5 ,6 7 ��8 �9


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-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12

Unemployment Rate(%)Growth Rate(%)

National-Level

Business Cycle � � � � � � � � �

1. 1.1995� 5 ,6 7 ��8 �9 ,: ; 8 < �(=2%��> 4-5%)2. : ; 8 ? @ A6 7 ��8 �" B ( C D E �F G H I J K < )


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100,000

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300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

11,000

86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12

EMPLOYERemployee (K)GDP(Nomial USD-Million)

National-Level

Business Cycle 1986-2012 � � � � �� GDP � � ! "1. L M 25N,/ 0 �O P QR ; S T U VGDPW X ��2. O P YU =773Z,[ �> 1086Z\O P AGDP] ^ ��_ F H < =>YX ` a b c3. R ; S T 16Zd ,[ �e L 50Z� \f + g h > iR ; S T U �j k $ 1994N� 5 [�8 ( l 8 � � )�. m 9 =>1994Nn , o Yp q r s t 45%,u v w x y z v {|,/ 0 } � �~ ; � � �


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Explanatory Factor (�)# $ % & ' � ( ) (��/ � � �)

1.1994N� ' =m � 30� Y� � > 20Y( � � � � [ �� . { � � � �O P U � )2.1994N� 5 ,� X � � ��( � � $ 20Y� � )

18

20

22

24

26

28

30

32

34

86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12

employee/employer


��

��

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

170

180

190

200

210

86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12

Disputes(0/00) OT WH

National-Level

Explanatory Factor � * �+ , * � �- . / 0 ' � �1 2 3 4

1. P � (Working Hour)=� � 2054 � � > 178 � �,P � � � V� � ¡ �¢ B2. � � � U (Overtime)=� � 12 4 � � > 84 � � �3. O |£ ¤ ¥ Y8 =0.23��> 2.4� �,O |£ ¤ ¦ U ¥ Y8 V� � �" B


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Workplace Injury 1986-2012 � � GDP, � � � � 5 6 7 � � � ! "1. K § � � � ¨ © A� ª 8 � �F G H

0

200

400

600

800

-4

0

4

8

12

86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12

DISR Growth Rate(%)

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12

dGDP(%)dFR(%)dUnemployment(%)


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Correlations1. $ « v ¬ ,� � ] ^ 1 2 �X ® P YU (X1),P � /V� � _ - A� � � �F ¯ K ° ±2.GDP(E1)A: ; 8 (E2) - . � ª 8 (Y1) ² ³ F ´ H �(E1AE2D E < � _ F )3. O |£ ¤ ¥ Y8 (X4)A� � " B => K � � ,£ ¤ 8 <4. P � (X2)V� � (X3) - . : µ ¶ · 8 (Y1) ] ^ ³ F ´ (X2AX3D E < � _ F )5. ) ³ _ F H �¸ � ¹ º » ¼ ½ ¾

Correlation Matrix of Overall Variables�Spearman Rank Order Correlation�

Business Cycle Explanatory Factor Injury E1 E2 X1 X2 X3 X4 Y1

E1 1.00 E2 -0.52*** 1.0000 X1 0.60*** -0.72*** 1.0000 X2 0.30 -0.14 0.36* 1.0000 X3 0.33* -0.08 0.37* 0.89*** 1.0000 X4 -0.36 0.52** -0.55** -0.43* -0.45** 1.0000 Y1 0.24 -0.25 0.16 0.44** 0.48** -0.10 1.0000

Remark�.*�p�0.1, **�p�0.05, **�p�0.01,


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50,000

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86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12

GDP(USD-M)

Industry Level-Manufacturing

Business Cycle 1986-2012 ��8 9 � GDP� �1.��,GDPa t =1986N�367.8¿À � ,��> 2011�1178.9¿À �2.A« v �GDPt _ B ,Á Â ; GDPÃ « v GDP@ =1/2� > @ Ä 1/43. � � � D � � � � � �� ( � � � )(1997 � � � � � � � � � � � �� )

• 2000 Y2K=> " % $ 2001• 2008� � ! => " % $ 2008Q2009


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-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12

dGDP(%) dDeflator(%)


Business Cycle GDP� � � : ; < % = > � (2006=100)� 1. & " # ' ( ) * D � � � � + ,1999� 5 , m Å Æ U ,Á Â ; � Ç È . � � ��( « v GDP� � � 1995� 5 ,6 7 ��8 �9 )


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70

80

90

100

110

120

130

1

2

3

4

5

6

86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12

Deflator(2006=100)Umeployment(%)


Business Cycle % = > � � � � � �

1.1998� 5 ,Á Â ; ` a É � � Q: ; 8 [ ( : ; 8 =2Ê < > 4-5%)2.20006 7 � � �Ë Ì ,=: ; 8 Í @ � Î Ï � N\ 2008Ð ³ Ñ N3. D E �F G H I J K <


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2,400

2,500

2,600

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3,000

86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12

employee (K)EMPLOYERGDP(USD-M)


Business Cycle 1986-2012 8 9 � � � �� GDP � � ! "1. Á Â ; �O P U =1987N�282Z,Å Ò > 1996N�242Z,Ó [ �Ô Õ 297.5ZY��\u � Ö > 2000, 2008 6 7 � � �Ë Ì

2. R ; S T U =1994�< × 12Z� d ,Å Ò > Ø Zd � �=>1994Nn , o Yp q rs t 45%,u v w x y z v { |,/ 0 } � �~ ; � � � ,Ù ± GDP[ �Ú ��


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3,000

86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12


Industry Level-ManufacturingBusiness Cycle 8 9 � � � �� GDP � � ! "3. - Û GDPa t VO P U �] ^• 1987-1996 Ü ; O P U Å Ò ,C a t [ � ,Ý Þ ß à á â ã È �ä å

(http://www.dgbas.gov.tw/public/Attachment/07916114771.doc)æiç è é ê ë E a ; ì í � ]) Â �,Á Â ; u �î É Vî ï ð ñ ; Qò ð ó ô Á Â õ ö ; � è ÷ é ê => ä å Ï mÅ Æ U ' ø ù ��< ( ú û Qü ý Q�þ Q�� a å � YÉ )

• 1996-2010N,GDPAO P YU ] ^ �¢ B \2011-2012O P YU [ � ,GDP" Ú Å Ò=> � Ya t Å Ò � æ � ° =>1998N� 5 �m Å Æ U � , � Á Â � ��


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86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12

employee/employer


Explanatory Factor (�)8 9 � # $ % & ' � ( ) (��/� � �)

1. 1995N� ' =m � 38� Y� � > 24,Ó 9 ê Ô �> 30Y=> Á Â ; m � � � � � �] ^j k " % $ « v

2. Á Â ; a ; Y � ì í � � ] => ú û Qü ý Q�þ Q�� a å � YÉ \� � >î ï | � a ;


��

��

0

5

10

15

20

170

180

190

200

210

86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12

OT WH Disputes(0/00)



1. P � =� � 209 4 � � > 184� �,� � � U B 3 K � ° ± �] ^ ��=> Á Â ; B 3³ � H Í � # a µ ] ^

2. O |£ ¤ ¥ Y8 =0.4��> 1.5� �3. P � � � V� � ¡ �" B4. O |£ ¤ ¦ U ¥ Y8 V� � �¢ B


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�� Industry Level-Manufacturing

Workplace Injury 1986-2012 8 9 � ? @ � GDP � � ! "1. Á Â ; GDP��Q� ª 8 �� 2. � ª 8 A� � ¨ © F G H K � °

20,000

40,000

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100,000

120,000

1.6

2.0

2.4

2.8

3.2

3.6

86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12

GDP(USD-M) DIFR

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12

dFR(%)dGDP(%)dUnemployment(%)


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�� Industry Level-Manufacturing

Correlations1. Ü Á Â ; Ú � ,GDP(E1) 1 2 �â b P � V� � (X2/X3)\: ; 8 (E2)A® P YU ] ^

(X1) _ F , E1AE2D E " Ú ² ³ ° ± �F G H2. O |£ ¤ ¥ Y8 (X4)A� � " B => K � � ,£ ¤ 8 <3. P � (X2)V� � (X3) - . : µ ¶ · 8 (Y1) ] ^ ³ F ´ (X2AX3D E < � _ F )4. ) ³ _ F H �¸ � ¹ º » ¼ ½ ¾5. X1A � � ] U �F G H W K ° ± => - Á Â ; Ú � ,YU K X � � ` a É �F � � c

Correlation Matrix of Overall Variables(Spearman Rank Order Correlation) Business Cycle Explanatory Factor Injury E1 E2 X1 X2 X3 X4 Y1

E1 1.00 E2 -0.19 1.00 X1 0.23 -0.67*** 1.00 X2 0.71*** -0.17 0.25 1.00 X3 0.72*** -0.21 0.21 0.93*** 1.00 X4 -0.53** 0.55** -0.28 -0.60*** -0.65*** 1.00 Y1 0.33 -0.36 0.19 0.41** 0.38* -0.18 1.00

Remark�.*�p�0.1, **�p�0.05, **�p�0.01,


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86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12

GDP(USD-M)

Industry Level-ConstructionBusiness Cycle 1986-2012 ��A 9 � GDP� �1. � Â ; �GDPa t ,=1986N�34.8¿À � ,��> 1997�124¿À � ,� � > 2003N� 84.5¿,Ó � ê Ô �> 2012N� 132¿

2.A« v �GDPt _ B , � Â ; GDPÃ « v GDP@ =1/20 � > @ Ä 1/35\ � Â ; �a t@ æÁ Â ; �1/10

3.A« v VÁ Â ; _ B , � Â ; Ö � � ¨ © �1 2 � 4. � � � � � � � �� ( � � � )

• 1997N� 5 , � Â ; G Î � Ï � N(1998-2003)• 2005- . � � ; Ú � X � 4 � � �• 2008� � ! => " % $ 2009


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-15

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86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12

dGDP(%) dDeflator(%)

Industry Level-Construction

Business Cycle GDP� � � : ; < % = > � (2006=100)� 1.=GDP ! " � � � ,2000, 2008 6 7 � � - . � Â ; �Ë Ì2.=m Å Æ U ] ^ 8 � � � 1998-2003N,- . � Â ; Ú � X G Î �� 3.GDPVm Å Æ U �] ^ ! K � X # ê ( m Å Æ U $ r 3 4 )


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120

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86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12

Deflator(2006=100)Umeployment(%)


Business Cycle % = > � � � � � �

1. : ; 8 �ù " � � � ��,2000-2003, 2009�: ; 8 � X Ê < ," % 2000V2008 6 7 � � �Ë Ì

2.=` a m Å Æ U Í , % & Ú � , ' & 1997-2003� � + ,��3. D E �F G H I J K <4.AÁ Â ; _ B ,D E �� ( ) * I


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86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12



Business Cycle 1986-2012 A 9 � � � �� GDP � � ! "1. L M 25N, � Â ; �O P U AGDP] ^ �B + ( O P X � Â ; �` a b c )2. � Â ; �O P U =1986N�51Z,��> 1995N�100Z,� 5 � Â ; % & Ü ; Y �Ö > 2000, 2008 6 7 � � �Ë Ì ,@ $ 70-80� ZY � � � ] ,

3. R ; S T U =1Z� d ,��> 4Zd � �\ � R ; S T - ��j k l 8 $ 1994N5�9 ( o �a ; . x 1 2 )


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�� Industry Level-Construction

Explanatory Factor (�)A 9 � # $ % & ' � ( ) (��/� � �)

1. K # . Á Â ; , � Â ; � � � Ñ / Ó 0 4 ,� d � � m � ® P U =36YÑ 1 � > 16Y

2. % & Ü ; Y � ² ��QC � � U ³ ��

12

16

20

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28

32

36

40

86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12

employee/employer


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��

0

2

4

6

8

10

172

176

180

184

188

192

196

86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12

OT WH Disputes(0/00)



1. P � =� � 195 4 � � > 178� �,2. � � � U =2��> 5-73. P � V� � D E � � � F ¯4. O |£ ¤ ¥ Y8 =0.2� � ��> 2� �5. P � � � V� � ¡ �" B ,O |£ ¤ ¦ U ¥ Y8 V� � �¢ B


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Workplace Injury 1986-2012 A 9 � ? @ � GDP � � ! "1. � Â ; �GDPA� ª 8 ² ³ 2 3 ] ^ � ��2. � ª 8 A� � ¨ © F G H K � °

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12

GDP(USD-M) DIFR

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12

dFR(%)dGDP(%)dUnemployment(%)


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Correlations1. Ü � Â ; Ú � ,GDP(E1)�] ^ AYU VP � 4 5 � °2. P � X2A� � X3D E � � F ¯ ° ± " Ú ¯ K 6 « v AÁ Â ; Í 7 <3. O |£ ¤ ¥ Y8 (X4)A � � ] U � �F G H K <4. ) ³ _ F H �¸ � ¹ º » ¼ ½ ¾5. - . � Â ; Ú � ,² ³ ] U � � ä å A� ª 8 � �F ¯

Correlation Matrix of Overall Variables(Spearman Rank Order Correlation) Business Cycle Explanatory Factor Injury E1 E2 X1 X2 X3 X4 Y1

E1 1.00 1.00 E2 -0.44* 1.00 X1 0.77*** -0.57*** 1.00 X2 0.44** -0.48** 0.48** 1.00 X3 0.45** 0.21 0.35* 0.42** 1.00 X4 -0.27 0.40 -0.07 -0.44* -0.02 1.00 Y1 0.01 -0.17 0.23 0.09 -0.19 0.08 1.00

Remark� *�p�0.1, **�p�0.05, **�p�0.01,


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1.��B C �D E F G H I JK L M � � N ; � O P JQ R S T U ? @ � V W �X Y Z K H [

2. � \ 9 � Q R S T ? @ � ] ^ W X Y Z �_ ` a b _ ` c dJ� � U 8 9� �- e H I f� * � g + , * � � � h i j k l m X Z �n o � � (is the relevant proxy) pq � � � � r s ? @ t _ �n o � � K k m X Z (are not relevant)

3. A 9 � �? @ � U Q R S T u v a b _ ` V W Jw x y z H [ �X { Z

� � � ��

1.� * + , * � � g | } �h �� ~ � � � � J� � � N ; � ��cdJ� G � � � ? @ � J� � � % � � ~ � � � � �� <

2. � � q � ' q r s ? @ �t _ K H [ Jn � � � � �P � c dJ? @ �y :� U � ~ � � � X J� X \ ' q � � N h � r s ? @ �� o � }

Conclusion


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1. � � � ¡ ¢ \ £ ¤ Q R S T ? @ � W �X { Z r ¥ � X � 5 a b p¦� � ��B C - e �D § ¨ © ª a b _ ` M � � ; � P � � \ ? @ � h

� k l m X Z JD E F G H I � * + , * � M � � ; � �P � & h a b

Q R S T ? @ � X Y Z W �X « _ ` J¬ \ � � q � �� r s ? @ ��

o � } ® ¯

2. ° ± �a b � � � � ² \ ³ ´ µ ¶ ) · J� ¸ ¹ º » ¼ ½ �� ¾ ¿ À ; �Á @ Â Ã JÄ ¬ Å ; � �� * � � Æ µ ¶ Ç � È � É Ê �y Ë � �

3. � � �È � Ì � R Í h Å # $ ª ��Î Ï Ð Ñ U ' q � Ò Ó Ô Æ Õ J¦� y z � Ö { F ; � � � × �@ � � Ø y : �a b _ `

� � � � � � � �

1.Ù ² Ú Û - e JÜ � Ý Þ - e � 5 ß M à á

2.� â \ - e � � ã Z ä �Z Jj å � 5 æ ç ? @ � (Î Ï ( ) �Â è é ê �ë�)�_ ` � ì í ½ î ï

Conclusion


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� ��

1.K ð ; � N � � J? @ � Q R S T ] ^ W �X { Z N ñ x K ð �ò 9 ó ô J_ õ ö ÷ » � j ø �£ ¤ K ð � � K ð ; � W � ù

2.� � â ô ú r J? @ � Q R S T ] ^ W �X { Z û x j å Ç ü �� 5 a b_ ` Jý þ À ¥ h ��n � � � (proxy) � ã - e � � � £ ¤

3.� � X \ ? @ � Q R S T ] ^ W X { Z �� À L � J� � h � � u ª * W

� � � � � � � X Z � À N 4 Z � Jõ j � ì � � �F G � L �� o

Z h ß � �p? @ � Q R S T ] ^ W �X { Z Ç u v a b _ ` J� � log + (� À h 4 Z � � ¹ )J� 5 � � � N � X Z � À J� K � L � �

I � � V W � � _ G X � ¯

Conclusion

Business cycele and workplace injury

Health & Medicine

Transcript of Business cycele and workplace injury