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Business Blitzkrieg: Patterns of Conflict and Beyond Chet Richards Retired March 2014

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Page 1: Business Blitzkrieg: Patterns of Conflict · PDF fileBusiness Blitzkrieg: Patterns of Conflict and Beyond Chet Richards Retired March 2014

Business Blitzkrieg: Patterns of Conflict and Beyond

Chet Richards

Retired

March 2014

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Who is John Boyd?

!2

Product Date Slides Words Words/Slide

New Conception for Air-Air Combat

8/1976 24 825 34

Destruction & Creation

9/1976 — 3,900 —

Patterns of Conflict

12/1986 185 21,000 113.5

Organic Design for Command & Control

5/1987 37 3,400 92

Strategic Game of ? and ?

6/1987 59 4,700 80

Conceptual Spiral

8/1992 38 2,900 76

The Essence of Winning and Losing

1/1996 4 350 87.5

Total 347 37,075 96Roughly four times the length of the Sun Tzu text.

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For the interested, a careful examination will reveal that the increasingly abstract discussion surfaces a process of !• reaching across many perspectives; • pulling each and every one apart (analysis), • all the while intuitively looking for those parts of the disassembled

perspectives which naturally interconnect with one another to form a higher-order, more general elaboration (synthesis) of what is taking place.

As a result, the process not only creates the Discourse but it also represents the key to evolve the tactics, strategies, goals, unifying themes, etc., that permit us to actively shape and adapt to the unfolding world we are a part of, live in, and feed upon.!

Boyd’s Abstract to the Discourse for Winning and Losing, ~1987

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CASE STUDY IN OPERATING INSIDE OODA LOOPS

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The Battle of theKerch Peninsula

8 – 18 May 1942

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Operation Bustard

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Background

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Sept 1939

Background

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Sept 1939

Apr 1940

Apr 1940

Background

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Sept 1939

Apr 1940

Apr 1940

May1940

Background

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Sept 1939

Apr 1940

Apr 1940

May1940

Background

April-May 1941

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The Situation in Europe, Late May 1941

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June 22, 1941

The Situation in Europe, Late May 1941

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Operation Barbarossa

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Operation Barbarossa

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Operation Barbarossa

June – Dec 1941

• Failed to take Leningrad

• Failed to take Moscow

• Drove deep into Ukraine

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!10

750 miles

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Operations in late 1941

1June – August 1941

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Operations in late 1941

Sep 1941

1June – August 1941

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You areColonel-General Erich von Manstein

Commander, 11th Army

Your mission: Secure the Crimean Peninsula

• Capture major port / fortress at Sevastopol

• Eliminate Soviet forces that could threaten German advance into the Caucasus

• Open up shortcut through the Kerch Peninsula into Southern Russia

“It was one of the few cases where an Army was still able to operate independently and free of interference from the Supreme Command.”

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Invasion of the CrimeaOctober 1941

It took 10 days and heavy casualties to break into the Crimea, but Soviets lose:

• 100,000 prisoners

• 700 artillery pieces

• 160 tanks

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Invasion of the CrimeaOctober 1941

It took 10 days and heavy casualties to break into the Crimea, but Soviets lose:

• 100,000 prisoners

• 700 artillery pieces

• 160 tanks

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Invasion of the CrimeaOctober 1941

It took 10 days and heavy casualties to break into the Crimea, but Soviets lose:

• 100,000 prisoners

• 700 artillery pieces

• 160 tanks

Quick question: Where was Manstein during this attack?

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Sidebar: What does “lead from the front” mean for business?

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Soviet Counterattack December 1941 - January 1942

Kerch Peninsula

Straits of Kerch / Kerchenskiy Proliv)

Fortress of Sevastopol

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Soviet Counterattack December 1941 - January 1942

Kerch Peninsula

Straits of Kerch / Kerchenskiy Proliv)

Fortress of Sevastopol

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The “Stalin Offensive” Continues February - April 1942

KERCH

Sea of Azov

Black Sea10 miles

(Sevastopol is still holding out)

Multiple attacks by 8 - 10 Soviet divisions

Front finally stabilized in early April

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Gentle Reminder: Your Mission is to Clear the Crimean Peninsula

KERCH

Sea of Azov

Black Sea10 miles

19 Divisions + 7 Brigades (3 Armored)

5 Inf. Divisions 1 Panzer 3 Romanian

Reserve line, also heavily fortified

(Sevastopol is still holding out)

Salient, containing most of Soviet forces

Heavily fortified defensive line with anti-tank ditch

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Review the situation:

▪ Both sides exhausted from the Stalin Offensive

▪ Germans outnumbered by more than 3:1

▪ Two-thirds of the Soviet forces are deployed in the northern salient

▪ Southern sector of Soviet line heavily dug in defending an anti-tank ditch

▪ Soviets echeloned in depth behind the line

▪ Romanians (German allies) not too great on offense

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So, General von Manstein

What do you do?

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Reminder: Your mission is to clear the entire Crimean Peninsula

KERCH

Sea of Azov

Black Sea10 miles

19 Divisions + 7 Brigades (3 Armored)

Echeloned in depth5 Inf. Divisions 1 Panzer 3 Romanian

Reserve Line

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Reminder: Your mission is to clear the entire Crimean Peninsula

KERCH

Sea of Azov

Black Sea10 miles

19 Divisions + 7 Brigades (3 Armored)

Echeloned in depth5 Inf. Divisions 1 Panzer 3 Romanian

Reserve Line

(Sevastopol is still holding out)

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Battle of the Kerch PeninsulaMay 1942 – Option 0: Do nothing

KERCH

Sea of Azov

Black Sea10 miles

19 Divisions + 7 Brigades (3 Armored)

Echeloned in depth5 Inf. Divisions 1 Panzer 3 Romanian

Reserve Line

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Battle of the Kerch PeninsulaMay 1942 – Option 0: Do nothing

KERCH

Sea of Azov

Black Sea10 miles

19 Divisions + 7 Brigades (3 Armored)

Echeloned in depth5 Inf. Divisions 1 Panzer 3 Romanian

Reserve Line

(Sevastopol is still holding out)

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Battle of the Kerch PeninsulaMay 1942 – Option 0: Do nothing

KERCH

Sea of Azov

Black Sea10 miles

19 Divisions + 7 Brigades (3 Armored)

Echeloned in depth5 Inf. Divisions 1 Panzer 3 Romanian

Reserve Line

(Sevastopol is still holding out)

Colonel Brighton: Look, sir, we can't just do nothing. General Allenby: Why not? It's usually best. *

* Lawrence of Arabia (1962)

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Battle of the Kerch PeninsulaMay 1942 – Option 0: Do nothing

KERCH

Sea of Azov

Black Sea10 miles

19 Divisions + 7 Brigades (3 Armored)

Echeloned in depth5 Inf. Divisions 1 Panzer 3 Romanian

Reserve Line

(Sevastopol is still holding out)

Pros? Cons?

Colonel Brighton: Look, sir, we can't just do nothing. General Allenby: Why not? It's usually best. *

* Lawrence of Arabia (1962)

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The Battle of the Kerch PeninsulaMay 1942 – Option 1

KERCH

Sea of Azov

Black Sea10 miles

1 Inf. Division3 Romanian

Hold here, and redeploy the rest to take Sevastopol, then turn against Kerch

Reserve Line

19 Divisions + 7 Brigades (3 Armored)

Echeloned in depth

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The Battle of the Kerch PeninsulaMay 1942 – Option 1

KERCH

Sea of Azov

Black Sea10 miles

1 Inf. Division3 Romanian

Hold here, and redeploy the rest to take Sevastopol, then turn against Kerch

Rest

Reserve Line

19 Divisions + 7 Brigades (3 Armored)

Echeloned in depth

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The Battle of the Kerch PeninsulaMay 1942 – Option 1

KERCH

Sea of Azov

Black Sea10 miles

1 Inf. Division3 Romanian

Hold here, and redeploy the rest to take Sevastopol, then turn against Kerch

Rest

Reserve Line

19 Divisions + 7 Brigades (3 Armored)

Echeloned in depth

Pros? Cons?

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The Battle of the Kerch PeninsulaMay 1942 – Option II

KERCH

Sea of Azov

Black Sea10 miles

5 Inf. Divisions1 Panzer 3 Romanian

Replay the Blitzkrieg:

• Bypass enemy strength;

• Cut off the salient;

• Split enemy forcesReserve Line

Defensive line

19 Divisions + 7 Brigades (3 Armored)

Echeloned in depth

Spoiling attacks

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The Battle of the Kerch PeninsulaMay 1942 – Option II

KERCH

Sea of Azov

Black Sea10 miles

5 Inf. Divisions1 Panzer 3 Romanian

Replay the Blitzkrieg:

• Bypass enemy strength;

• Cut off the salient;

• Split enemy forcesReserve Line

Defensive line

19 Divisions + 7 Brigades (3 Armored)

Echeloned in depth

Spoiling attacks

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The Battle of the Kerch PeninsulaMay 1942 – Option II

KERCH

Sea of Azov

Black Sea10 miles

5 Inf. Divisions1 Panzer 3 Romanian

Replay the Blitzkrieg:

• Bypass enemy strength;

• Cut off the salient;

• Split enemy forcesReserve Line

Defensive line

19 Divisions + 7 Brigades (3 Armored)

Echeloned in depth

Pros? Cons?

Spoiling attacks

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Any other brilliant ideas?

KERCH

Sea of Azov

Black Sea10 miles

Reserve Line

19 Divisions + 7 Brigades (3 Armored)

Echeloned in depth5 Inf. Divisions 1 Panzer 3 Romanian

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Any other brilliant ideas?

KERCH

Sea of Azov

Black Sea10 miles

Reserve Line

(Sevastopol is still holding out)

19 Divisions + 7 Brigades (3 Armored)

Echeloned in depth5 Inf. Divisions 1 Panzer 3 Romanian

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WHAT WOULD YOU DO, AND WHY?

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What Manstein Did (Day 1)

KERCH

Sea of Azov

Black Sea10 miles

Reserve Line

(Sevastopol is still holding out)

19 Divisions + 7 Brigades (3 Armored)

Echeloned in depth5 Inf. Divisions 1 Panzer 3 Romanian

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What Manstein Did (Day 1)

KERCH

Sea of Azov

Black Sea10 miles

Reserve Line

(Sevastopol is still holding out)

Spoiling attacks

19 Divisions + 7 Brigades (3 Armored)

Echeloned in depth5 Inf. Divisions 1 Panzer 3 Romanian

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What Manstein Did (Day 1)

KERCH

Sea of Azov

Black Sea10 miles

Reserve Line

(Sevastopol is still holding out)

Spoiling attacks

19 Divisions + 7 Brigades (3 Armored)

Echeloned in depth5 Inf. Divisions 1 Panzer 3 Romanian

Right through the heaviest part of the Soviet defenses!!!

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Why?

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Why?

▪ We intended to make our decisive thrust not immediately in the area where the front protruded west, but down in the southern sector, along the Black Sea coast. In other words, where the enemy would be least expecting it.

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Why?

▪ We intended to make our decisive thrust not immediately in the area where the front protruded west, but down in the southern sector, along the Black Sea coast. In other words, where the enemy would be least expecting it.

▪ Although 170 Infantry Division would have to remain in the central sector in order to deceive the enemy … Manstein, Lost Victories, 224 (emphasis added).

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What Manstein Did (Day 2)

KERCH

Sea of Azov

Black Sea10 miles

Reserve Line

(Sevastopol is still holding out)

Spoiling attacks

5 Inf. Divisions 1 Panzer 3 Romanian

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What Manstein Did (Day 2)

KERCH

Sea of Azov

Black Sea10 miles

Reserve Line

(Sevastopol is still holding out)

Spoiling attacks

5 Inf. Divisions 1 Panzer 3 Romanian

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What Manstein Did (Day 2)

KERCH

Sea of Azov

Black Sea10 miles

Reserve Line

(Sevastopol is still holding out)

Spoiling attacks

Into flank / rear of salient, trapping 8 Soviet divisions

5 Inf. Divisions 1 Panzer 3 Romanian

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What Manstein Did (Day 2)

KERCH

Sea of Azov

Black Sea10 miles

Reserve Line

(Sevastopol is still holding out)

Spoiling attacks

Into flank / rear of salient, trapping 8 Soviet divisions

Brigade Group Groddek

5 Inf. Divisions 1 Panzer 3 Romanian

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What Manstein Did (Days 3-10)

KERCH

Sea of Azov

Black Sea10 miles

5 Inf. Divisions 1 Panzer

3 Romanian

(Sevastopol is still holding out)

Pursuit

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What Manstein Did (Days 3-10)

KERCH

Sea of Azov

Black Sea10 miles

5 Inf. Divisions 1 Panzer

3 Romanian

(Sevastopol is still holding out)

Pursuit

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Why?

▪ Absolute requirement for deception, to keep Soviet forces in the northern salient until too late

▪ Tempo: Create surprise and confusion in Soviets and exploit before they could figure out what was going on

▪ Need to destroy bulk of Soviet forces before they could redeploy east

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Manstein’s strategy has deep roots in military history

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Precursor: The Sun Tzu text 孫子兵法

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Precursor: The Sun Tzu text 孫子兵法

▪ Probably dates in roughly its current form from c. 400 BC (oldest text dates from perhaps 200 BC)

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Precursor: The Sun Tzu text 孫子兵法

▪ Probably dates in roughly its current form from c. 400 BC (oldest text dates from perhaps 200 BC)

▪ Probably not the work of a single individual

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Precursor: The Sun Tzu text 孫子兵法

▪ Probably dates in roughly its current form from c. 400 BC (oldest text dates from perhaps 200 BC)

▪ Probably not the work of a single individual

▪ Extremely difficult to translate (compare the same passage in different translations)

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Precursor: The Sun Tzu text 孫子兵法

▪ Probably dates in roughly its current form from c. 400 BC (oldest text dates from perhaps 200 BC)

▪ Probably not the work of a single individual

▪ Extremely difficult to translate (compare the same passage in different translations)

▪ Focused exclusively on land warfare in what is now Eastern China

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Precursor: The Sun Tzu text 孫子兵法

▪ Probably dates in roughly its current form from c. 400 BC (oldest text dates from perhaps 200 BC)

▪ Probably not the work of a single individual

▪ Extremely difficult to translate (compare the same passage in different translations)

▪ Focused exclusively on land warfare in what is now Eastern China

So why should we pay any attention to it at all?

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Why worry about Sun Tzu?

▪ Because the text addresses timeless themes

Where there is life, there is conflict … From the Sun Tzu perspective, avoiding conflict is futile. It will find us in the end.

Denma Translation Group,Introduction to The Rules of Victory

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Precursor: Sun Tzu

▪ The text addresses timeless themes

▪ But they need to be understood outside of their original military underpinnings

▪ And brought up to date

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The military in its victory avoids the solid and strikes the empty. Thus water determines its movements in accordance with the earth. The military determines victory in accordance with the enemy. The military is without fixed shih and without lasting form.

Sun Tzu, Chapter 6 (Demna translation)

For example, what does this mean?

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Using Sun Tzu

▪ The best framework for bring Sun Tzu into the modern era was developed by John Boyd (1927 – 1997) – A Discourse on Winning and Losing (1986-1997)

– Foundation of USMC doctrine

– Embraced by US special operations forces

– Finding wider application to business, sports, politics, etc.

▪ They both start from the same observation

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Human nature

Goal

▪ Survive, survive on own terms, or improve our capacity for independent action.

The competition for limited resources to satisfythese desires may force one to:

▪ Diminish adversary’s capacity for independent action, or deny him the opportunity to survive on his own terms, or make it impossible for him to survive at all.

!Implication

▪ Life is conflict, survival, and conquest.

10

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Human nature

Goal

▪ Survive, survive on own terms, or improve our capacity for independent action.

The competition for limited resources to satisfythese desires may force one to:

▪ Diminish adversary’s capacity for independent action, or deny him the opportunity to survive on his own terms, or make it impossible for him to survive at all.

!Implication

▪ Life is conflict, survival, and conquest.

10

Note – the blue background indicates Boyd’s original charts. All are from Patterns of Conflict unless another briefing is cited. Note page numbers in bottom right corner.

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How do we bring Sun Tzu’s ideas into the 21st century?

As with Sun Tzu, Boyd is all about achieving a deep understanding of a small number of fundamental concepts.

In the early 1960s, one of the best known translators of the Sun Tzu text observed that:

Sun Tzu believed that the moral strength and intellectual were decisive in war and that if these were applied properly, war could be waged with certain success.

Let’s look at other fundamental concepts that Boyd found in Sun Tzu

!38

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Historical patternSun Tzu The Art of War c. 400 B.C.

Theme

▪ Harmony and trust

▪ Justice and well being

▪ Inscrutability and enigma

▪ Deception and subversion

▪ Rapidity and fluidity

▪ Dispersion and concentration

▪ Surprise and shock

Strategy ▪ Probe enemy’s organization and

dispositions to unmask his strengths, weaknesses, patterns of movement and intentions.

▪ “Shape” enemy’s perception of world to manipulate his plans and actions.

▪ Attack enemy’s plans as best policy. Next best disrupt his alliances. Next best attack his army. Attack cities only when there is no alternative.

▪ Employ cheng and ch'i maneuvers to quickly and unexpectedly hurl strength against weaknesses.

Desired outcome • Subdue enemy

without fighting • Avoid protracted

war

13

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Historical pattern

Early commanders

▪ Alexander

▪ Hannibal

▪ Belisarius

▪ Genghis Khan

▪ Tamerlane

Impression ▪ Early commanders seem

consistent with ideas of Sun Tzu

▪ Western commanders more directly concerned with winning the battle

▪ Eastern commanders closer to Sun Tzu in attempting to shatter adversary prior to battle

* Cheng/ch'i maneuver schemes were employed by early commanders to expose adversary vulnerabilities and weaknesses (a la cheng) for exploitation and decisive stroke (via ch'i).

14

Action Cheng and ch'i*

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Fundamental idea of all this

Armed with deep understanding, you can – will – generate implementation ideas that will work in your organization.

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Let’s look at Boyd’s own list of fundamental concepts

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Boyd’s list of fundamental concepts

▪ Compress own time and stretch-out adversary time. ▪ Generate unequal distributions as basis to focus

moral-mental-physical effort for local superiority and decisive leverage.

▪ Diminish own friction (or entropy) and magnify adversary friction (or entropy).

▪ Operate inside adversary’s observation-orientation-decision-action loops or get inside his mind-time-space.

▪ Penetrate adversary organism and bring about his collapse.

▪ Amplify our spirit and strength, drain-away adversaries’ and attract the uncommitted.

184

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We’re going to refine Boyd’s list down into 4 “big ideas” that apply to any form of competition

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Where to begin?

We can sort Boyd’s concepts into categories regarding: – What you do with opponents: Operate inside their OODA

loops

– What you do with your own unit: Improve the EFAS climate

– What you do with allies and the uncommitted: Grand strategy

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Where to begin?

We can sort Boyd’s concepts into categories regarding: – What you do with opponents: Operate inside their OODA

loops

– What you do with your own unit: Improve the EFAS climate

– What you do with allies and the uncommitted: Grand strategy

Before we get started: How can you tell if you have “deep understanding”?

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FIRST BIG IDEAOperating inside their OODA loops

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FIRST BIG IDEAOperating inside their OODA loops

And also his oldest

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Idea Expansion

• Idea of fast transients suggests that in order to win or gain superiority, we should operate at a faster tempo than our adversaries or inside our adversaries’ time scales.

• Why? Such activity will make us appear ambiguous (non-predictable) thereby generate confusion and disorder among our adversaries in accordance with Gödel’s Proof, the Heisenberg Principle, and the Second Law of Thermodynamics.

New Conception for Air-Air Combat, 4 August 1976, 19

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5

“Idea expansion” as it appeared in Patterns of Conflict

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▪ Idea of fast transients suggests that, in order to win, we should operate at a faster tempo or rhythm than our adversaries—or, better yet, get inside adversary’s observation-orientation-decision-action time cycle or loop.

5

“Idea expansion” as it appeared in Patterns of Conflict

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▪ Idea of fast transients suggests that, in order to win, we should operate at a faster tempo or rhythm than our adversaries—or, better yet, get inside adversary’s observation-orientation-decision-action time cycle or loop.

▪ Why? Such activity will make us appear ambiguous (unpredictable) thereby generate confusion and disorder among our adversaries—since our adversaries will be unable to generate mental images or pictures that agree with the menacing as well as faster transient rhythm or patterns they are competing against.

5

“Idea expansion” as it appeared in Patterns of Conflict

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In other words, Boyd is claiming that

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In other words, Boyd is claiming that

Operating inside their OODA

loops

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In other words, Boyd is claiming that

Operating inside their OODA

loops

Ambiguity

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In other words, Boyd is claiming that

Operating inside their OODA

loops

Ambiguity

Plus MENACE

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In other words, Boyd is claiming that

Operating inside their OODA

loops

Ambiguity

Confusion & Disorder

Plus MENACE

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In other words, Boyd is claiming that

Operating inside their OODA

loops

Ambiguity

Confusion & Disorder

Is this true? Does it agree with your experience?Let’s look at Boyd’s evidence.

Plus MENACE

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Historical patternGenghis Khan and the Mongols

25

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Historical patternGenghis Khan and the Mongols

Key asymmetries

25

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Historical patternGenghis Khan and the Mongols

Key asymmetries

▪ Superior mobility

25

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Historical patternGenghis Khan and the Mongols

Key asymmetries

▪ Superior mobility

▪ Superior communications

25

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Historical patternGenghis Khan and the Mongols

Key asymmetries

▪ Superior mobility

▪ Superior communications

▪ Superior intelligence

25

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Historical patternGenghis Khan and the Mongols

Key asymmetries

▪ Superior mobility

▪ Superior communications

▪ Superior intelligence

▪ Superior leadership

Theme

▪ Widely separated strategic maneuvers, with appropriate stratagems, baited retreats, hard-hitting tactical thrusts, and swirling envelopments to uncover and exploit adversary vulnerabilities and weaknesses.

in conjunction with

▪ Clever and calculated use of propaganda and terror to play upon adversary’s doubts, fears, and superstitions in order to undermine his resolve and destroy his will to resist.

25

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Historical patternGenghis Khan and the Mongols

Key asymmetries

▪ Superior mobility

▪ Superior communications

▪ Superior intelligence

▪ Superior leadership

Theme

▪ Widely separated strategic maneuvers, with appropriate stratagems, baited retreats, hard-hitting tactical thrusts, and swirling envelopments to uncover and exploit adversary vulnerabilities and weaknesses.

in conjunction with

▪ Clever and calculated use of propaganda and terror to play upon adversary’s doubts, fears, and superstitions in order to undermine his resolve and destroy his will to resist.

Aim Conquest, as basis to create, preserve, and expand Mongol nation

25

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Mongol strategic maneuver (1219-1220)

Kizyl-Kum

KhawarizmState

Bokhara

Samarkand

Caspian

Sea

Aral Sea

Genghis Khan

Chagatai Jochi

Jebe

500 miles

Oxus River

(Modern Uzbekistan & Kazakhstan)

26

Syr Darya River

Otrar

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Mongol strategic maneuver (1219-1220)

Kizyl-Kum

KhawarizmState

Bokhara

Samarkand

Caspian

Sea

Aral Sea

Genghis Khan

Chagatai Jochi

Jebe

500 miles

Oxus River

(Modern Uzbekistan & Kazakhstan)

26

Syr Darya River

Otrar

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? Raises nagging question ?

Even though outnumbered, why were Mongols able to maneuver in widely scattered arrays without being defeated separately or in detail?

27

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? Raises nagging question ?

Even though outnumbered, why were Mongols able to maneuver in widely scattered arrays without being defeated separately or in detail?

27

Never divide your forces in the presence of a superior enemy.

LTC George A. Custer, 1876.

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What the Khawarizm leader actually saw

Kizyl-Kum

KhawarizmState

Bokhara

Samarkand

Caspian

Sea

Aral Sea

500 miles

Oxus River

(Modern Uzbekistan)

Based on Patterns 26

Otrar

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What the Khawarizm leader actually saw

Kizyl-Kum

KhawarizmState

Bokhara

Samarkand

Caspian

Sea

Aral Sea

500 miles

Oxus River

(Modern Uzbekistan)

Based on Patterns 26

Rumor

Otrar

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What the Khawarizm leader actually saw

Kizyl-Kum

KhawarizmState

Bokhara

Samarkand

Caspian

Sea

Aral Sea

500 miles

Oxus River

(Modern Uzbekistan)

Based on Patterns 26

Otrar

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What the Khawarizm leader actually saw

Kizyl-Kum

KhawarizmState

Bokhara

Samarkand

Caspian

Sea

Aral Sea

500 miles

Oxus River

(Modern Uzbekistan)

Based on Patterns 26

Rumor

Otrar

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What the Khawarizm leader actually saw

Kizyl-Kum

KhawarizmState

Bokhara

Samarkand

Caspian

Sea

Aral Sea

500 miles

Oxus River

(Modern Uzbekistan)

Based on Patterns 26

Otrar

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What the Khawarizm leader actually saw

Kizyl-Kum

KhawarizmState

Bokhara

Samarkand

Caspian

Sea

Aral Sea

500 miles

Oxus River

(Modern Uzbekistan)

Based on Patterns 26

Otrar

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What the Khawarizm leader actually saw

Kizyl-Kum

KhawarizmState

Bokhara

Samarkand

Caspian

Sea

Aral Sea

500 miles

Oxus River

(Modern Uzbekistan)

Based on Patterns 26

Otrar

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What the Khawarizm leader actually saw

Kizyl-Kum

KhawarizmState

Bokhara

Samarkand

Caspian

Sea

Aral Sea

500 miles

Oxus River

(Modern Uzbekistan)

Based on Patterns 26

RumorOtrar

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What the Khawarizm leader actually saw

Kizyl-Kum

KhawarizmState

Bokhara

Samarkand

Caspian

Sea

Aral Sea

500 miles

Oxus River

(Modern Uzbekistan)

Based on Patterns 26

Otrar

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What the Khawarizm leader actually saw

Kizyl-Kum

KhawarizmState

Bokhara

Samarkand

Caspian

Sea

Aral Sea

500 miles

Oxus River

(Modern Uzbekistan)

Based on Patterns 26

Otrar

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What the Khawarizm leader actually saw

Kizyl-Kum

KhawarizmState

Bokhara

Samarkand

Caspian

Sea

Aral Sea

500 miles

Oxus River

(Modern Uzbekistan)

Based on Patterns 26

Otrar

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What the Khawarizm leader actually saw

Kizyl-Kum

KhawarizmState

Bokhara

Samarkand

Caspian

Sea

Aral Sea

500 miles

Oxus River

(Modern Uzbekistan)

Based on Patterns 26

Otrar

Rumor

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What the Khawarizm leader actually saw

Kizyl-Kum

KhawarizmState

Bokhara

Samarkand

Caspian

Sea

Aral Sea

500 miles

Oxus River

(Modern Uzbekistan)

Based on Patterns 26

Otrar

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What the Khawarizm leader actually saw

Kizyl-Kum

KhawarizmState

Bokhara

Samarkand

Caspian

Sea

Aral Sea

500 miles

Oxus River

(Modern Uzbekistan)

Based on Patterns 26

Otrar

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What the Khawarizm leader actually saw

Kizyl-Kum

KhawarizmState

Bokhara

Samarkand

Caspian

Sea

Aral Sea

500 miles

Oxus River

(Modern Uzbekistan)

Based on Patterns 26

Otrar

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What the Khawarizm leader actually saw

Kizyl-Kum

KhawarizmState

Bokhara

Samarkand

Caspian

Sea

Aral Sea

500 miles

Oxus River

(Modern Uzbekistan)

Based on Patterns 26

Otrar

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What the Khawarizm leader actually saw

Kizyl-Kum

KhawarizmState

Bokhara

Samarkand

Caspian

Sea

Aral Sea

500 miles

Oxus River

(Modern Uzbekistan)

Based on Patterns 26

TerrorOtrar

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What the Khawarizm leader actually saw

Kizyl-Kum

KhawarizmState

Bokhara

Samarkand

Caspian

Sea

Aral Sea

500 miles

Oxus River

(Modern Uzbekistan)

Based on Patterns 26

Otrar

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What the Khawarizm leader actually saw

Kizyl-Kum

KhawarizmState

Bokhara

Samarkand

Caspian

Sea

Aral Sea

500 miles

Oxus River

(Modern Uzbekistan)

Based on Patterns 26

Otrar

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What the Khawarizm leader actually saw

Kizyl-Kum

KhawarizmState

Bokhara

Samarkand

Caspian

Sea

Aral Sea

500 miles

Oxus River

(Modern Uzbekistan)

Based on Patterns 26

Otrar

WTF???

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What the Khawarizm leader actually saw

Kizyl-Kum

KhawarizmState

Bokhara

Samarkand

Caspian

Sea

Aral Sea

500 miles

Oxus River

(Modern Uzbekistan)

Based on Patterns 26

Propaganda

Otrar

WTF???

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What the Khawarizm leader actually saw

Kizyl-Kum

KhawarizmState

Bokhara

Samarkand

Caspian

Sea

Aral Sea

500 miles

Oxus River

(Modern Uzbekistan)

Based on Patterns 26

Propaganda

Otrar

WTF???

Terror

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What the Khawarizm leader actually saw

Kizyl-Kum

KhawarizmState

Bokhara

Samarkand

Caspian

Sea

Aral Sea

500 miles

Oxus River

(Modern Uzbekistan)

Based on Patterns 26

Propaganda

Otrar

Terror

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What the Khawarizm leader actually saw

Kizyl-Kum

KhawarizmState

Bokhara

Samarkand

Caspian

Sea

Aral Sea

500 miles

Oxus River

(Modern Uzbekistan)

Based on Patterns 26

Propaganda

Otrar

Terror

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Historical patterns Genghis Khan and the Mongols

28

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Historical patterns Genghis Khan and the Mongols

Message

▪ By exploiting superior leadership, intelligence, communications, and mobility as well as by playing upon adversary’s fears and doubts via propaganda and terror, Mongols operated inside adversary observation-orientation-decision-action loops.

28

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Historical patterns Genghis Khan and the Mongols

Message

▪ By exploiting superior leadership, intelligence, communications, and mobility as well as by playing upon adversary’s fears and doubts via propaganda and terror, Mongols operated inside adversary observation-orientation-decision-action loops.

Result

▪ Outnumbered Mongols created impressions of terrifying strength—by seeming to come out of nowhere yet be everywhere.

28

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Historical patterns Genghis Khan and the Mongols

Message

▪ By exploiting superior leadership, intelligence, communications, and mobility as well as by playing upon adversary’s fears and doubts via propaganda and terror, Mongols operated inside adversary observation-orientation-decision-action loops.

Result

▪ Outnumbered Mongols created impressions of terrifying strength—by seeming to come out of nowhere yet be everywhere.

hence,

▪ Subversive propaganda, clever stratagems, fast breaking maneuvers, and calculated terror not only created vulnerabilities and weaknesses but also played upon moral factors that drain away resolve, produce panic, and bring about collapse.

28

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Operating inside OODA loops

▪ Boyd’s primary tool for working on opponents

▪ But, he never really defines what it means

▪ The closest he comes is in his first briefing, New Conception for Air-Air Combat

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Message

He who can handle the quickestrate of change survives.

New Conception for Air-Air Combat, 24

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What does this mean?

!57

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What does this mean?

▪ Quickest rate of change in what?

!57

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What does this mean?

▪ Quickest rate of change in what?

▪ Earlier in New Conception, Boyd had concluded that faster rate of change in some parameters wasn’t enough:

▪ Direction

▪ Altitude

▪ Airspeed

!57

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Operating inside OODA loops

▪ Boyd’s primary tool for working on opponents

▪ But, he never really defines what it means

▪ The closest he comes is in his first briefing, New Conception for Air-Air Combat

▪ Amplified some 10 years later in Patterns of Conflict

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132

Second impression

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Intentions

132

Second impression

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Intentions

▪ Probe and test adversary to unmask strengths, weaknesses, maneuvers, and intentions.

132

Second impression

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Intentions

▪ Probe and test adversary to unmask strengths, weaknesses, maneuvers, and intentions.

▪ Employ a variety of measures that interweave menace-uncertainty-mistrust with tangles of ambiguity-deception-novelty as basis to sever adversary’s moral ties and disorient …

132

Second impression

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Intentions

▪ Probe and test adversary to unmask strengths, weaknesses, maneuvers, and intentions.

▪ Employ a variety of measures that interweave menace-uncertainty-mistrust with tangles of ambiguity-deception-novelty as basis to sever adversary’s moral ties and disorient …

▪ Select initiative (or response) that is least expected.

132

Second impression

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Intentions

▪ Probe and test adversary to unmask strengths, weaknesses, maneuvers, and intentions.

▪ Employ a variety of measures that interweave menace-uncertainty-mistrust with tangles of ambiguity-deception-novelty as basis to sever adversary’s moral ties and disorient …

▪ Select initiative (or response) that is least expected.

▪ Establish focus of main effort together with other effort and pursue directions that permit many happenings, offer many branches, and threaten alternative objectives.

132

Second impression

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Intentions

▪ Probe and test adversary to unmask strengths, weaknesses, maneuvers, and intentions.

▪ Employ a variety of measures that interweave menace-uncertainty-mistrust with tangles of ambiguity-deception-novelty as basis to sever adversary’s moral ties and disorient …

▪ Select initiative (or response) that is least expected.

▪ Establish focus of main effort together with other effort and pursue directions that permit many happenings, offer many branches, and threaten alternative objectives.

▪ Move along paths of least resistance (to reinforce and exploit success).

132

Second impression

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Intentions

▪ Probe and test adversary to unmask strengths, weaknesses, maneuvers, and intentions.

▪ Employ a variety of measures that interweave menace-uncertainty-mistrust with tangles of ambiguity-deception-novelty as basis to sever adversary’s moral ties and disorient …

▪ Select initiative (or response) that is least expected.

▪ Establish focus of main effort together with other effort and pursue directions that permit many happenings, offer many branches, and threaten alternative objectives.

▪ Move along paths of least resistance (to reinforce and exploit success).

▪ Exploit, rather than disrupt or destroy, those differences, frictions, and obsessions of adversary organism that interfere with his ability to cope …

132

Second impression

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Intentions

▪ Probe and test adversary to unmask strengths, weaknesses, maneuvers, and intentions.

▪ Employ a variety of measures that interweave menace-uncertainty-mistrust with tangles of ambiguity-deception-novelty as basis to sever adversary’s moral ties and disorient …

▪ Select initiative (or response) that is least expected.

▪ Establish focus of main effort together with other effort and pursue directions that permit many happenings, offer many branches, and threaten alternative objectives.

▪ Move along paths of least resistance (to reinforce and exploit success).

▪ Exploit, rather than disrupt or destroy, those differences, frictions, and obsessions of adversary organism that interfere with his ability to cope …

▪ Subvert, disorient, disrupt, overload, or seize adversary’s vulnerable, yet critical, connections, centers, and activities … in order to dismember organism and isolate remnants for wrap-up or absorption.

132

Second impression

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Intentions

▪ Probe and test adversary to unmask strengths, weaknesses, maneuvers, and intentions.

▪ Employ a variety of measures that interweave menace-uncertainty-mistrust with tangles of ambiguity-deception-novelty as basis to sever adversary’s moral ties and disorient …

▪ Select initiative (or response) that is least expected.

▪ Establish focus of main effort together with other effort and pursue directions that permit many happenings, offer many branches, and threaten alternative objectives.

▪ Move along paths of least resistance (to reinforce and exploit success).

▪ Exploit, rather than disrupt or destroy, those differences, frictions, and obsessions of adversary organism that interfere with his ability to cope …

▪ Subvert, disorient, disrupt, overload, or seize adversary’s vulnerable, yet critical, connections, centers, and activities … in order to dismember organism and isolate remnants for wrap-up or absorption.

▪ Generate uncertainty, confusion, disorder, panic, chaos … to shatter cohesion, produce paralysis and bring about collapse.

132

Second impression

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Intentions

▪ Probe and test adversary to unmask strengths, weaknesses, maneuvers, and intentions.

▪ Employ a variety of measures that interweave menace-uncertainty-mistrust with tangles of ambiguity-deception-novelty as basis to sever adversary’s moral ties and disorient …

▪ Select initiative (or response) that is least expected.

▪ Establish focus of main effort together with other effort and pursue directions that permit many happenings, offer many branches, and threaten alternative objectives.

▪ Move along paths of least resistance (to reinforce and exploit success).

▪ Exploit, rather than disrupt or destroy, those differences, frictions, and obsessions of adversary organism that interfere with his ability to cope …

▪ Subvert, disorient, disrupt, overload, or seize adversary’s vulnerable, yet critical, connections, centers, and activities … in order to dismember organism and isolate remnants for wrap-up or absorption.

▪ Generate uncertainty, confusion, disorder, panic, chaos … to shatter cohesion, produce paralysis and bring about collapse.

▪ Become an extraordinary commander.

132

Second impression

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Transients Intentions

▪ Probe and test adversary to unmask strengths, weaknesses, maneuvers, and intentions.

▪ Employ a variety of measures that interweave menace-uncertainty-mistrust with tangles of ambiguity-deception-novelty as basis to sever adversary’s moral ties and disorient …

▪ Select initiative (or response) that is least expected.

▪ Establish focus of main effort together with other effort and pursue directions that permit many happenings, offer many branches, and threaten alternative objectives.

▪ Move along paths of least resistance (to reinforce and exploit success).

▪ Exploit, rather than disrupt or destroy, those differences, frictions, and obsessions of adversary organism that interfere with his ability to cope …

▪ Subvert, disorient, disrupt, overload, or seize adversary’s vulnerable, yet critical, connections, centers, and activities … in order to dismember organism and isolate remnants for wrap-up or absorption.

▪ Generate uncertainty, confusion, disorder, panic, chaos … to shatter cohesion, produce paralysis and bring about collapse.

▪ Become an extraordinary commander.

permits one to

132

Second impression

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Transients▪ Observe, orient, decide and act more

inconspicuously, more quickly, and with more irregularity …

Intentions

▪ Probe and test adversary to unmask strengths, weaknesses, maneuvers, and intentions.

▪ Employ a variety of measures that interweave menace-uncertainty-mistrust with tangles of ambiguity-deception-novelty as basis to sever adversary’s moral ties and disorient …

▪ Select initiative (or response) that is least expected.

▪ Establish focus of main effort together with other effort and pursue directions that permit many happenings, offer many branches, and threaten alternative objectives.

▪ Move along paths of least resistance (to reinforce and exploit success).

▪ Exploit, rather than disrupt or destroy, those differences, frictions, and obsessions of adversary organism that interfere with his ability to cope …

▪ Subvert, disorient, disrupt, overload, or seize adversary’s vulnerable, yet critical, connections, centers, and activities … in order to dismember organism and isolate remnants for wrap-up or absorption.

▪ Generate uncertainty, confusion, disorder, panic, chaos … to shatter cohesion, produce paralysis and bring about collapse.

▪ Become an extraordinary commander.

permits one to

132

Second impression

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Transients▪ Observe, orient, decide and act more

inconspicuously, more quickly, and with more irregularity …

or put another way

▪ Operate inside adversary’s observation-orientation-decision action loops or get inside his mind-time-space.

Intentions

▪ Probe and test adversary to unmask strengths, weaknesses, maneuvers, and intentions.

▪ Employ a variety of measures that interweave menace-uncertainty-mistrust with tangles of ambiguity-deception-novelty as basis to sever adversary’s moral ties and disorient …

▪ Select initiative (or response) that is least expected.

▪ Establish focus of main effort together with other effort and pursue directions that permit many happenings, offer many branches, and threaten alternative objectives.

▪ Move along paths of least resistance (to reinforce and exploit success).

▪ Exploit, rather than disrupt or destroy, those differences, frictions, and obsessions of adversary organism that interfere with his ability to cope …

▪ Subvert, disorient, disrupt, overload, or seize adversary’s vulnerable, yet critical, connections, centers, and activities … in order to dismember organism and isolate remnants for wrap-up or absorption.

▪ Generate uncertainty, confusion, disorder, panic, chaos … to shatter cohesion, produce paralysis and bring about collapse.

▪ Become an extraordinary commander.

permits one to

132

Second impression

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Deeper understanding of Chart 132

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Deeper understanding of Chart 132

▪ Intelligence is an active process (“Probe and test”)

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Deeper understanding of Chart 132

▪ Intelligence is an active process (“Probe and test”)▪ Goal is that other side will surrender, run away, break

apart, etc. ▪ “The enemy was isolated and demoralized; his will

to resist broken.” Griffith introduction to Sun Tzu, p. 39

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Deeper understanding of Chart 132

▪ Intelligence is an active process (“Probe and test”)▪ Goal is that other side will surrender, run away, break

apart, etc. ▪ “The enemy was isolated and demoralized; his will

to resist broken.” Griffith introduction to Sun Tzu, p. 39

▪ Focus is on confusing and demoralizing the other side, then

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Deeper understanding of Chart 132

▪ Intelligence is an active process (“Probe and test”)▪ Goal is that other side will surrender, run away, break

apart, etc. ▪ “The enemy was isolated and demoralized; his will

to resist broken.” Griffith introduction to Sun Tzu, p. 39

▪ Focus is on confusing and demoralizing the other side, then

▪ Keeping it going (“least expected,” “many happenings,” etc.)

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Deeper understanding of Chart 132

▪ Intelligence is an active process (“Probe and test”)▪ Goal is that other side will surrender, run away, break

apart, etc. ▪ “The enemy was isolated and demoralized; his will

to resist broken.” Griffith introduction to Sun Tzu, p. 39

▪ Focus is on confusing and demoralizing the other side, then

▪ Keeping it going (“least expected,” “many happenings,” etc.)

▪ Before other side can figure it out

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NOW LET’S REVISIT OUR CASE STUDY

!61

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Tools Manstein Used

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Tools Manstein Used

▪ Deception leading to surprise

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Tools Manstein Used

▪ Deception leading to surprise▪ Ambiguity via multiple thrusts, attacks into the rear

area, and high tempo ops

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Tools Manstein Used

▪ Deception leading to surprise▪ Ambiguity via multiple thrusts, attacks into the rear

area, and high tempo ops▪ These produce

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Tools Manstein Used

▪ Deception leading to surprise▪ Ambiguity via multiple thrusts, attacks into the rear

area, and high tempo ops▪ These produce

– Confusion: Opportunity for Manstein to penetrate and break through/out

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Tools Manstein Used

▪ Deception leading to surprise▪ Ambiguity via multiple thrusts, attacks into the rear

area, and high tempo ops▪ These produce

– Confusion: Opportunity for Manstein to penetrate and break through/out

– Sense of menace and uncertainty, panic, breakdown of cohesion and will to fight

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Tools Manstein Used

▪ Deception leading to surprise▪ Ambiguity via multiple thrusts, attacks into the rear

area, and high tempo ops▪ These produce

– Confusion: Opportunity for Manstein to penetrate and break through/out

– Sense of menace and uncertainty, panic, breakdown of cohesion and will to fight

▪ Result: Classic victory against a superior force in a very short time.

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So, that’s “operating inside the OODA loop”

What does “operating inside the OODA ‘loop’” mean for you?

• Can you operate inside customers’ OODA loops? !

• What would be the purpose? Would you ever not want to operate inside customers’ OODA loops? !

• Is there a difference between operating inside customers’ OODA loops and competitors’ OODA loops? !

• Can you think of any examples?

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SECOND BIG IDEABuilding an organization that can do these things

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Another lesson from the case study

▪ Key Point: Manstein had an organization capable of performing such an operation

!65

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Boyd’s organizational climate enables the actions we just studied

▪ Fingerspitzengefühl

▪ Einheit

▪ Schwerpunkt

▪ Auftragstaktik

▪ Behendigkeit

!It is absolutely essential that you develop a deep understanding of these concepts. They apply to all groups who must work together under conditions of stress and uncertainty.

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Unfortunately, Boyd is not a lot of help

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Unfortunately, Boyd is not a lot of help

▪ Says virtually nothing about Fingerspitzengefühl

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Unfortunately, Boyd is not a lot of help

▪ Says virtually nothing about Fingerspitzengefühl

▪ Doesn’t use the term Einheit

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Unfortunately, Boyd is not a lot of help

▪ Says virtually nothing about Fingerspitzengefühl

▪ Doesn’t use the term Einheit– Prefers such helpful phrases as “overall mind-time-space

scheme,” “implicit bonds and connections,” and “similar implicit orientation.”

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Unfortunately, Boyd is not a lot of help

▪ Says virtually nothing about Fingerspitzengefühl

▪ Doesn’t use the term Einheit– Prefers such helpful phrases as “overall mind-time-space

scheme,” “implicit bonds and connections,” and “similar implicit orientation.”

▪ Has only a few charts on Schwerpunkt and Auftragstaktik (another term he doesn’t use)

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STRATEGIC GAME 45

The only place Boyd mentions Fingerspitzengefühl

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? What’s the point of all this ?

STRATEGIC GAME 45

The only place Boyd mentions Fingerspitzengefühl

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? What’s the point of all this ?

▪ We can’t just look at our own personal experiences or use the same mental recipes over and over again; we’ve got to look at other disciplines and activities and relate or connect them to what we know from our experiences and the strategic world we live in.

STRATEGIC GAME 45

The only place Boyd mentions Fingerspitzengefühl

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? What’s the point of all this ?

▪ We can’t just look at our own personal experiences or use the same mental recipes over and over again; we’ve got to look at other disciplines and activities and relate or connect them to what we know from our experiences and the strategic world we live in.

If we can do this,

STRATEGIC GAME 45

The only place Boyd mentions Fingerspitzengefühl

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? What’s the point of all this ?

▪ We can’t just look at our own personal experiences or use the same mental recipes over and over again; we’ve got to look at other disciplines and activities and relate or connect them to what we know from our experiences and the strategic world we live in.

If we can do this,

▪ We will be able to surface new repertoires and (hopefully) develop Fingerspitzengefühl for folding our adversaries back inside themselves, morally-mentally-physically—so that they can neither appreciate nor cope with what’s happening—without suffering the same fate ourselves.

STRATEGIC GAME 45

The only place Boyd mentions Fingerspitzengefühl

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!69

Incidentally, that was the most important slide in all of Boyd’s work. If I forget to mention why by the end of this program, please ask me.

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Let’s look at what Boyd says about the other elements of the organizational climate

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Starting point (Patterns, Chart 71)

How do blitzers simultaneously sustain rapid pace and abruptly adapt to changing circumstances without losing cohesion or coherency of their overall effort?

[CR Note: If you aren’t careful, these will trade off. That is, a rapid pace, combined with a lot of abrupt changes, will often cause loss of cohesion. On the other hand, attempting to enforce cohesion can kill agility. !You may recall: “Even though outnumbered, why were Mongols able to maneuver in widely scattered arrays without being defeated separately or in detail?”]

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Blitz operating philosophy

72

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Blitz operating philosophy Key point

72

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Blitz operating philosophy Key point

▪ Each level from simple to complex (platoon to theater) has their own observation-orientation-decision-action time cycle that increases as we try to control more levels and details of command at the higher levels. Put simply, as the number of events we must consider increase, the longer it takes to observe-orient-decide-act.

72

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Blitz operating philosophy Key point

▪ Each level from simple to complex (platoon to theater) has their own observation-orientation-decision-action time cycle that increases as we try to control more levels and details of command at the higher levels. Put simply, as the number of events we must consider increase, the longer it takes to observe-orient-decide-act.

Idea

72

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Blitz operating philosophy Key point

▪ Each level from simple to complex (platoon to theater) has their own observation-orientation-decision-action time cycle that increases as we try to control more levels and details of command at the higher levels. Put simply, as the number of events we must consider increase, the longer it takes to observe-orient-decide-act.

Idea

▪ This brings out the idea that faster tempo, or rhythm, at lower levels should work within the slower rhythm but larger pattern at higher levels so that overall system does not lose its cohesion or coherency.

72

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Blitz operating philosophy Key point

▪ Each level from simple to complex (platoon to theater) has their own observation-orientation-decision-action time cycle that increases as we try to control more levels and details of command at the higher levels. Put simply, as the number of events we must consider increase, the longer it takes to observe-orient-decide-act.

Idea

▪ This brings out the idea that faster tempo, or rhythm, at lower levels should work within the slower rhythm but larger pattern at higher levels so that overall system does not lose its cohesion or coherency.

Raises question

72

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Blitz operating philosophy Key point

▪ Each level from simple to complex (platoon to theater) has their own observation-orientation-decision-action time cycle that increases as we try to control more levels and details of command at the higher levels. Put simply, as the number of events we must consider increase, the longer it takes to observe-orient-decide-act.

Idea

▪ This brings out the idea that faster tempo, or rhythm, at lower levels should work within the slower rhythm but larger pattern at higher levels so that overall system does not lose its cohesion or coherency.

Raises question

▪ How do blitzers harmonize these differing tempos/rhythms so that they can exploit the faster rhythm/smaller pattern (of the lower-level units) yet maintain the coherency of the rhythm/pattern for the larger effort?

72

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Blitz operating philosophy Key point

▪ Each level from simple to complex (platoon to theater) has their own observation-orientation-decision-action time cycle that increases as we try to control more levels and details of command at the higher levels. Put simply, as the number of events we must consider increase, the longer it takes to observe-orient-decide-act.

Idea

▪ This brings out the idea that faster tempo, or rhythm, at lower levels should work within the slower rhythm but larger pattern at higher levels so that overall system does not lose its cohesion or coherency.

Raises question

▪ How do blitzers harmonize these differing tempos/rhythms so that they can exploit the faster rhythm/smaller pattern (of the lower-level units) yet maintain the coherency of the rhythm/pattern for the larger effort?

Response

72

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Blitz operating philosophy Key point

▪ Each level from simple to complex (platoon to theater) has their own observation-orientation-decision-action time cycle that increases as we try to control more levels and details of command at the higher levels. Put simply, as the number of events we must consider increase, the longer it takes to observe-orient-decide-act.

Idea

▪ This brings out the idea that faster tempo, or rhythm, at lower levels should work within the slower rhythm but larger pattern at higher levels so that overall system does not lose its cohesion or coherency.

Raises question

▪ How do blitzers harmonize these differing tempos/rhythms so that they can exploit the faster rhythm/smaller pattern (of the lower-level units) yet maintain the coherency of the rhythm/pattern for the larger effort?

Response

▪ Give lower-level commanders wide freedom, within an overall mind-time-space scheme, to shape/direct their own activities so that they can exploit faster tempo/rhythm at tactical levels yet be in harmony with the larger pattern/slower rhythm associated with the more general aim and larger effort at the strategic level.

72

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Blitz operating philosophy Key point

▪ Each level from simple to complex (platoon to theater) has their own observation-orientation-decision-action time cycle that increases as we try to control more levels and details of command at the higher levels. Put simply, as the number of events we must consider increase, the longer it takes to observe-orient-decide-act.

Idea

▪ This brings out the idea that faster tempo, or rhythm, at lower levels should work within the slower rhythm but larger pattern at higher levels so that overall system does not lose its cohesion or coherency.

Raises question

▪ How do blitzers harmonize these differing tempos/rhythms so that they can exploit the faster rhythm/smaller pattern (of the lower-level units) yet maintain the coherency of the rhythm/pattern for the larger effort?

Response

▪ Give lower-level commanders wide freedom, within an overall mind-time-space scheme, to shape/direct their own activities so that they can exploit faster tempo/rhythm at tactical levels yet be in harmony with the larger pattern/slower rhythm associated with the more general aim and larger effort at the strategic level.

Shaping agents

72

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Blitz operating philosophy Key point

▪ Each level from simple to complex (platoon to theater) has their own observation-orientation-decision-action time cycle that increases as we try to control more levels and details of command at the higher levels. Put simply, as the number of events we must consider increase, the longer it takes to observe-orient-decide-act.

Idea

▪ This brings out the idea that faster tempo, or rhythm, at lower levels should work within the slower rhythm but larger pattern at higher levels so that overall system does not lose its cohesion or coherency.

Raises question

▪ How do blitzers harmonize these differing tempos/rhythms so that they can exploit the faster rhythm/smaller pattern (of the lower-level units) yet maintain the coherency of the rhythm/pattern for the larger effort?

Response

▪ Give lower-level commanders wide freedom, within an overall mind-time-space scheme, to shape/direct their own activities so that they can exploit faster tempo/rhythm at tactical levels yet be in harmony with the larger pattern/slower rhythm associated with the more general aim and larger effort at the strategic level.

Shaping agents

▪ Shape overall scheme by using mission concept or sense of mission to fix responsibility and shape commitment at all levels and through all parts of the organism. Likewise, use Schwerpunkt concept through all levels to link differing rhythms/patterns so that each part or level of the organic whole can operate at its own natural rhythm—without pulling organism apart—instead of the slower pace associated with a rigid centralized control. 72

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? Raises questions ?

• What does an overall mind-time-space scheme imply or presuppose?

• How do mission and Schwerpunkt concepts give shape to this overall scheme?

73

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Overall mind-time-space schemeMessage

▪ According to General Gunther Blumentritt, such a scheme presupposes a common outlook based upon “a body of professional officers who have received exactly the same training during the long years of peace and with the same tactical education, the same way of thinking, identical speech, hence a body of officers to whom all tactical conceptions were fully clear.”

▪ Furthermore, a la General Blumentritt, it presupposes “an officers training institution which allows the subordinate a very great measure of freedom of action and freedom in the manner of executing orders and which primarily calls for independent daring, initiative and sense of responsibility.”

Point

▪ Without a common outlook superiors cannot give subordinates freedom-of-action and maintain coherency of ongoing action.

Implication

▪ A common outlook possessed by “a body of officers” represents a unifying theme that can be used to simultaneously encourage subordinate initiative yet realize superior intent.

74

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Overall mind-time-space schemeMessage

▪ According to General Gunther Blumentritt, such a scheme presupposes a common outlook based upon “a body of professional officers who have received exactly the same training during the long years of peace and with the same tactical education, the same way of thinking, identical speech, hence a body of officers to whom all tactical conceptions were fully clear.”

▪ Furthermore, a la General Blumentritt, it presupposes “an officers training institution which allows the subordinate a very great measure of freedom of action and freedom in the manner of executing orders and which primarily calls for independent daring, initiative and sense of responsibility.”

Point

▪ Without a common outlook superiors cannot give subordinates freedom-of-action and maintain coherency of ongoing action.

Implication

▪ A common outlook possessed by “a body of officers” represents a unifying theme that can be used to simultaneously encourage subordinate initiative yet realize superior intent.

74

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Einheit — another view

Organic Design 23

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Einheit — another view

▪ Suppress tendency to build-up explicit internal arrangements that hinder interaction with external world.

Organic Design 23

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Einheit — another view

▪ Suppress tendency to build-up explicit internal arrangements that hinder interaction with external world.

Instead

▪ Arrange setting and circumstances so that leaders and subordinates alike are given opportunity to continuously interact with external world, and with each other, in order to more quickly make many-sided implicit cross-referencing projections, empathies, correlations, and rejections as well as create the similar images or impressions, hence a similar implicit orientation, needed to form an organic whole.

Organic Design 23

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Einheit — another view

▪ Suppress tendency to build-up explicit internal arrangements that hinder interaction with external world.

Instead

▪ Arrange setting and circumstances so that leaders and subordinates alike are given opportunity to continuously interact with external world, and with each other, in order to more quickly make many-sided implicit cross-referencing projections, empathies, correlations, and rejections as well as create the similar images or impressions, hence a similar implicit orientation, needed to form an organic whole.

Why?

▪ A similar implicit orientation for commanders and subordinates alike will allow them to:

Organic Design 23

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Einheit — another view

▪ Suppress tendency to build-up explicit internal arrangements that hinder interaction with external world.

Instead

▪ Arrange setting and circumstances so that leaders and subordinates alike are given opportunity to continuously interact with external world, and with each other, in order to more quickly make many-sided implicit cross-referencing projections, empathies, correlations, and rejections as well as create the similar images or impressions, hence a similar implicit orientation, needed to form an organic whole.

Why?

▪ A similar implicit orientation for commanders and subordinates alike will allow them to:

– Diminish their friction and reduce time, thereby permit them to:

Organic Design 23

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Einheit — another view

▪ Suppress tendency to build-up explicit internal arrangements that hinder interaction with external world.

Instead

▪ Arrange setting and circumstances so that leaders and subordinates alike are given opportunity to continuously interact with external world, and with each other, in order to more quickly make many-sided implicit cross-referencing projections, empathies, correlations, and rejections as well as create the similar images or impressions, hence a similar implicit orientation, needed to form an organic whole.

Why?

▪ A similar implicit orientation for commanders and subordinates alike will allow them to:

– Diminish their friction and reduce time, thereby permit them to:

– Exploit variety/rapidity while maintaining harmony/initiative, thereby permit them to:

Organic Design 23

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Einheit — another view

▪ Suppress tendency to build-up explicit internal arrangements that hinder interaction with external world.

Instead

▪ Arrange setting and circumstances so that leaders and subordinates alike are given opportunity to continuously interact with external world, and with each other, in order to more quickly make many-sided implicit cross-referencing projections, empathies, correlations, and rejections as well as create the similar images or impressions, hence a similar implicit orientation, needed to form an organic whole.

Why?

▪ A similar implicit orientation for commanders and subordinates alike will allow them to:

– Diminish their friction and reduce time, thereby permit them to:

– Exploit variety/rapidity while maintaining harmony/initiative, thereby permit them to:

– Get inside adversary’s O-O-D-A loops, thereby:

Organic Design 23

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Einheit — another view

▪ Suppress tendency to build-up explicit internal arrangements that hinder interaction with external world.

Instead

▪ Arrange setting and circumstances so that leaders and subordinates alike are given opportunity to continuously interact with external world, and with each other, in order to more quickly make many-sided implicit cross-referencing projections, empathies, correlations, and rejections as well as create the similar images or impressions, hence a similar implicit orientation, needed to form an organic whole.

Why?

▪ A similar implicit orientation for commanders and subordinates alike will allow them to:

– Diminish their friction and reduce time, thereby permit them to:

– Exploit variety/rapidity while maintaining harmony/initiative, thereby permit them to:

– Get inside adversary’s O-O-D-A loops, thereby:

– Magnify adversary’s friction and stretch-out his time (for a favorable mismatch in friction and time), thereby:

Organic Design 23

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Einheit — another view

▪ Suppress tendency to build-up explicit internal arrangements that hinder interaction with external world.

Instead

▪ Arrange setting and circumstances so that leaders and subordinates alike are given opportunity to continuously interact with external world, and with each other, in order to more quickly make many-sided implicit cross-referencing projections, empathies, correlations, and rejections as well as create the similar images or impressions, hence a similar implicit orientation, needed to form an organic whole.

Why?

▪ A similar implicit orientation for commanders and subordinates alike will allow them to:

– Diminish their friction and reduce time, thereby permit them to:

– Exploit variety/rapidity while maintaining harmony/initiative, thereby permit them to:

– Get inside adversary’s O-O-D-A loops, thereby:

– Magnify adversary’s friction and stretch-out his time (for a favorable mismatch in friction and time), thereby:

– Deny adversary the opportunity to cope with events/efforts as they unfold.

Organic Design 23

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? Raises question ?

Very nice, but how do the German concepts of mission and Schwerpunkt give shape to this scheme?

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MissionMessage

▪ The German concept of mission can be thought of as a contract, hence an agreement, between superior and subordinate. The subordinate agrees to make his actions serve his superior’s intent in terms of what is to be accomplished, while the superior agrees to give his subordinate wide freedom to exercise his imagination and initiative in terms of how intent is to be realized.

▪ As part of this concept, the subordinate is given the right to challenge or question the feasibility of mission if he feels his superior’s ideas on what can be achieved are not in accord with the existing situation or if he feels his superior has not given him adequate resources to carry it out. Likewise, the superior has every right to expect his subordinate to carry out the mission contract when agreement is reached on what can be achieved consistent with the existing situation and resources provided.

!Limitation

▪ While this concept of mission gives form and expression to what is expected between an individual superior and subordinate, it does not suggest ways to coordinate or harmonize activities among many superiors and subordinates as a collective group.

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? Raises question ?

With this limitation in mind how does Schwerpunkt play into or add to this concept?

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Schwerpunkt (focus of main effort)

Message

▪ Schwerpunkt acts as a center or axis or harmonizing agent that is used to help shape commitment and convey or carry out intent, at all levels from theater to platoon, hence an image around which:

– Maneuver of all arms and supporting elements are focused to exploit opportunities and maintain tempo of operations,

and – Initiative of many subordinates is harmonized with superior intent.

▪ In this sense Schwerpunkt can be thought of as:

– A focusing agent that naturally produces an unequal distribution of effort as a basis to generate superiority in some sectors by thinning-out others,

as well as – A medium to realize superior intent without impeding initiative of many subordinates, hence a medium

through which subordinate initiative is implicitly connected to superior intent. !

Implication

▪ Schwerpunkt represents a unifying concept that provides a way to rapidly shape focus and direction of effort as well as harmonize support activities with combat operations, thereby permit a true decentralization of tactical command within centralized strategic guidance—without losing cohesion of overall effort.

or put another way

▪ Schwerpunkt represents a unifying medium that provides a directed way to tie initiative of many subordinate actions with superior intent as a basis to diminish friction and compress time in order to generate a favorable mismatch in time/ability to shape and adapt to unfolding circumstances.

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German operational philosophy

79

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German operational philosophy Impression

79

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German operational philosophy Impression

▪ The German operational philosophy based upon a common outlook and freedom-of-action, and realized through their concepts of mission and Schwerpunkt, emphasized implicit over explicit communication.

79

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German operational philosophy Impression

▪ The German operational philosophy based upon a common outlook and freedom-of-action, and realized through their concepts of mission and Schwerpunkt, emphasized implicit over explicit communication.

which suggests

79

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German operational philosophy Impression

▪ The German operational philosophy based upon a common outlook and freedom-of-action, and realized through their concepts of mission and Schwerpunkt, emphasized implicit over explicit communication.

which suggests

▪ The secret of the German command and control system lies in what’s unstated or not communicated to one another—to exploit lower-level initiative yet realize higher-level intent, thereby diminish friction and reduce time, hence gain both quickness and security.

79

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German operational philosophy Impression

▪ The German operational philosophy based upon a common outlook and freedom-of-action, and realized through their concepts of mission and Schwerpunkt, emphasized implicit over explicit communication.

which suggests

▪ The secret of the German command and control system lies in what’s unstated or not communicated to one another—to exploit lower-level initiative yet realize higher-level intent, thereby diminish friction and reduce time, hence gain both quickness and security.

Result

79

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German operational philosophy Impression

▪ The German operational philosophy based upon a common outlook and freedom-of-action, and realized through their concepts of mission and Schwerpunkt, emphasized implicit over explicit communication.

which suggests

▪ The secret of the German command and control system lies in what’s unstated or not communicated to one another—to exploit lower-level initiative yet realize higher-level intent, thereby diminish friction and reduce time, hence gain both quickness and security.

Result

▪ The Germans were able to repeatedly operate inside their adversary’s observation-orientation-decision-action loops.

79

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German operational philosophy Impression

▪ The German operational philosophy based upon a common outlook and freedom-of-action, and realized through their concepts of mission and Schwerpunkt, emphasized implicit over explicit communication.

which suggests

▪ The secret of the German command and control system lies in what’s unstated or not communicated to one another—to exploit lower-level initiative yet realize higher-level intent, thereby diminish friction and reduce time, hence gain both quickness and security.

Result

▪ The Germans were able to repeatedly operate inside their adversary’s observation-orientation-decision-action loops.

or as stated by General Blumentritt,

79

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German operational philosophy Impression

▪ The German operational philosophy based upon a common outlook and freedom-of-action, and realized through their concepts of mission and Schwerpunkt, emphasized implicit over explicit communication.

which suggests

▪ The secret of the German command and control system lies in what’s unstated or not communicated to one another—to exploit lower-level initiative yet realize higher-level intent, thereby diminish friction and reduce time, hence gain both quickness and security.

Result

▪ The Germans were able to repeatedly operate inside their adversary’s observation-orientation-decision-action loops.

or as stated by General Blumentritt,

▪ “The entire operational and tactical leadership method hinged upon … rapid, concise assessment of situations … quick decision and quick execution, on the principle: ‘each minute ahead of the enemy is an advantage.’”

79

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Comments

▪ Although he doesn’t spend a lot of space on these concepts, he keeps coming back to them, and he is explicit in saying that they form the basis for successful organizations

▪ A lot of the “deep understanding” will be your own responsibility

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Impression of the Blitzkrieg penetration Thrust and roll out/roll up tactics

80

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Impression of the Blitzkrieg penetration Thrust and roll out/roll up tactics

80

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Impression of the Blitzkrieg penetration Thrust and roll out/roll up tactics

JRB Comment: Bundles of multiple thrusts inside multiple thrusts

80

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Impression of the Blitzkrieg penetration Thrust and roll out/roll up tactics

JRB Comment: Bundles of multiple thrusts inside multiple thrusts

80

CR comment: These routes cannot have been planned out in advance because they take advantage of the situation as it is being developed.

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Impression of the Blitzkrieg penetration Thrust and roll out/roll up tactics

JRB Comment: Bundles of multiple thrusts inside multiple thrusts

80

CR comment: These routes cannot have been planned out in advance because they take advantage of the situation as it is being developed.

CR second comment: !

Any parallels with business?

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Here’s the idea

▪ An organization that makes EFAS its Schwerpunkt will become ever more agile.

!83

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Here’s the idea

▪ An organization that makes EFAS its Schwerpunkt will become ever more agile.

!83

Is this true?

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Here’s the idea

▪ An organization that makes EFAS its Schwerpunkt will become ever more agile.

!83

Is this true?

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Here’s the idea

▪ An organization that makes EFAS its Schwerpunkt will become ever more agile.

!83

Is this true?

Does “agile” = “successful”

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Here’s the idea

▪ An organization that makes EFAS its Schwerpunkt will become ever more agile.

!83

Is this true?

Does “agile” = “successful”

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Here’s the idea

▪ An organization that makes EFAS its Schwerpunkt will become ever more agile.

!83

Is this true?

Does “agile” = “successful”

Is there anything missing?

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THIRD BIG IDEAThe “OODA ‘Loop’”

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What you need to make it work

!85

Implicit repertoire Way to evolve new repertoire

Analyses and synthesis

Orientation

Way to observe

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Key Statements

The Essence of Winning and Losing 1

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Key Statements

• Without our genetic heritage, cultural traditions, and previous experiences, we do not possess an implicit repertoire of psychophysical skills shaped by environments and changes that have been previously experienced.

The Essence of Winning and Losing 1

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Key Statements

• Without our genetic heritage, cultural traditions, and previous experiences, we do not possess an implicit repertoire of psychophysical skills shaped by environments and changes that have been previously experienced.

• Without analyses and synthesis across a variety of domains or across a variety of competing/independent channels of information, we cannot evolve new repertoires to deal with unfamiliar phenomena or unforeseen change.

The Essence of Winning and Losing 1

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Key Statements

• Without our genetic heritage, cultural traditions, and previous experiences, we do not possess an implicit repertoire of psychophysical skills shaped by environments and changes that have been previously experienced.

• Without analyses and synthesis across a variety of domains or across a variety of competing/independent channels of information, we cannot evolve new repertoires to deal with unfamiliar phenomena or unforeseen change.

• Without a many-sided, implicit cross-referencing process of projection, empathy, correlation, and rejection (across these many different domains or channels of information), we cannot even do analysis and synthesis.

The Essence of Winning and Losing 1

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Key Statements

• Without our genetic heritage, cultural traditions, and previous experiences, we do not possess an implicit repertoire of psychophysical skills shaped by environments and changes that have been previously experienced.

• Without analyses and synthesis across a variety of domains or across a variety of competing/independent channels of information, we cannot evolve new repertoires to deal with unfamiliar phenomena or unforeseen change.

• Without a many-sided, implicit cross-referencing process of projection, empathy, correlation, and rejection (across these many different domains or channels of information), we cannot even do analysis and synthesis.

• Without OODA loops, we can neither sense, hence observe, thereby collect a variety of information for the above processes, nor decide as well as implement actions in accord with these processes.

The Essence of Winning and Losing 1

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Key Statements

• Without our genetic heritage, cultural traditions, and previous experiences, we do not possess an implicit repertoire of psychophysical skills shaped by environments and changes that have been previously experienced.

• Without analyses and synthesis across a variety of domains or across a variety of competing/independent channels of information, we cannot evolve new repertoires to deal with unfamiliar phenomena or unforeseen change.

• Without a many-sided, implicit cross-referencing process of projection, empathy, correlation, and rejection (across these many different domains or channels of information), we cannot even do analysis and synthesis.

• Without OODA loops, we can neither sense, hence observe, thereby collect a variety of information for the above processes, nor decide as well as implement actions in accord with these processes.

Or put another way:

Without OODA loops embracing all of the above and without the ability to get inside other OODA loops (or other environments), we will find it impossible to comprehend, shape, adapt to and in turn be shaped by an unfolding evolving reality that is uncertain, everchanging, and unpredictable

The Essence of Winning and Losing 1

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2

We can further clarify these statements and their interactions by the following sketch.

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Insights:

Note how orientation shapes observation, shapes decision, shapes action, and in turn is shaped by the feedback and other phenomena coming into our sensing or observing window.

Also note how the entire “loop” (not just orientation) is an ongoing many-sided implicit cross-referencing process of projection, empathy, correlation, and rejection.

Feed Forward

Observations Decision(Hypothesis)

Action (Test)

CulturalTraditions

Genetic Heritage

New Information Previous

Experience

Analyses &SynthesisFeed

ForwardFeed

Forward

ImplicitGuidance& Control

ImplicitGuidance& Control

UnfoldingInteraction

With EnvironmentUnfolding

Interaction With

Environment Feedback

Feedback

Outside Information

UnfoldingCircumstances

Observe Orient Decide Act

The OODA “Loop” Sketch

3

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Looking at it carefully

According to Chuck Spinney, Boyd initially didn’t want to draw a figure of the OODA loop because it might become dogma. He finally agreed, but called it a “sketch.”

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Looking at it carefully

You need four things (in no particular order):

According to Chuck Spinney, Boyd initially didn’t want to draw a figure of the OODA loop because it might become dogma. He finally agreed, but called it a “sketch.”

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Looking at it carefully

You need four things (in no particular order):1. Orientation closely matched to unfolding (and

brutal) reality

According to Chuck Spinney, Boyd initially didn’t want to draw a figure of the OODA loop because it might become dogma. He finally agreed, but called it a “sketch.”

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Looking at it carefully

You need four things (in no particular order):1. Orientation closely matched to unfolding (and

brutal) reality2. A repertoire of potentially effective actions that we

can apply to shape and respond to that (unfolding) reality

According to Chuck Spinney, Boyd initially didn’t want to draw a figure of the OODA loop because it might become dogma. He finally agreed, but called it a “sketch.”

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Looking at it carefully

You need four things (in no particular order):1. Orientation closely matched to unfolding (and

brutal) reality2. A repertoire of potentially effective actions that we

can apply to shape and respond to that (unfolding) reality

3. A functioning “implicit guidance & control” linkage so that the vast majority of the time, actions flow smoothly and quickly from Orientation

According to Chuck Spinney, Boyd initially didn’t want to draw a figure of the OODA loop because it might become dogma. He finally agreed, but called it a “sketch.”

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Looking at it carefully

You need four things (in no particular order):1. Orientation closely matched to unfolding (and

brutal) reality2. A repertoire of potentially effective actions that we

can apply to shape and respond to that (unfolding) reality

3. A functioning “implicit guidance & control” linkage so that the vast majority of the time, actions flow smoothly and quickly from Orientation

4. Analyses, synthesis, hypothesis and test to update our orientations and to add to our repertoire.

According to Chuck Spinney, Boyd initially didn’t want to draw a figure of the OODA loop because it might become dogma. He finally agreed, but called it a “sketch.”

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Looking at it carefully

You need four things (in no particular order):1. Orientation closely matched to unfolding (and

brutal) reality2. A repertoire of potentially effective actions that we

can apply to shape and respond to that (unfolding) reality

3. A functioning “implicit guidance & control” linkage so that the vast majority of the time, actions flow smoothly and quickly from Orientation

4. Analyses, synthesis, hypothesis and test to update our orientations and to add to our repertoire.

We’ll briefly look at each of these.

According to Chuck Spinney, Boyd initially didn’t want to draw a figure of the OODA loop because it might become dogma. He finally agreed, but called it a “sketch.”

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FeedForwardObservations Decision

(Hypothesis)Action (Test)

FeedForward

FeedForward

Implicit Guidance& Control

Implicit Guidance& Control

Unfolding Interaction With EnvironmentUnfolding

Interaction With Environment Feedback

Feedback

OutsideInformation

Unfolding Circumstances

Observe Orient Decide Act

The “Big O”

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Message

Referring back to our previous discussion, we can say: orientation is an interactive process of many-sided implicit cross-referencing projections, empathies, correlations, and rejections that is shaped by and shapes the interplay of genetic heritage, cultural tradition, previous experiences, and unfolding circumstances.

ORGANIC DESIGN 15

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ORGANIC DESIGN 16

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Illumination

ORGANIC DESIGN 16

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Illumination• Orientation is the Schwerpunkt. It shapes the way we interact with

the environment—hence orientation shapes the way we observe, the way we decide, the way we act.

ORGANIC DESIGN 16

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Illumination• Orientation is the Schwerpunkt. It shapes the way we interact with

the environment—hence orientation shapes the way we observe, the way we decide, the way we act.

In this sense

ORGANIC DESIGN 16

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Illumination• Orientation is the Schwerpunkt. It shapes the way we interact with

the environment—hence orientation shapes the way we observe, the way we decide, the way we act.

In this sense

• Orientation shapes the character of present observation-orientation-decision-action loops—while these present loops shape the character of future orientation.

ORGANIC DESIGN 16

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Illumination• Orientation is the Schwerpunkt. It shapes the way we interact with

the environment—hence orientation shapes the way we observe, the way we decide, the way we act.

In this sense

• Orientation shapes the character of present observation-orientation-decision-action loops—while these present loops shape the character of future orientation.

ORGANIC DESIGN 16

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Illumination• Orientation is the Schwerpunkt. It shapes the way we interact with

the environment—hence orientation shapes the way we observe, the way we decide, the way we act.

In this sense

• Orientation shapes the character of present observation-orientation-decision-action loops—while these present loops shape the character of future orientation.

Implication

ORGANIC DESIGN 16

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Illumination• Orientation is the Schwerpunkt. It shapes the way we interact with

the environment—hence orientation shapes the way we observe, the way we decide, the way we act.

In this sense

• Orientation shapes the character of present observation-orientation-decision-action loops—while these present loops shape the character of future orientation.

Implication• We need to create mental images, views, or impressions, hence

patterns that match with activity of world.

• We need to deny adversary the possibility of uncovering or discerning patterns that match our activity, or other aspects of reality in the world.

ORGANIC DESIGN 16

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A repertoire of potentially effective actions

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FeedForwardObservations Decision

(Hypothesis)

CulturalTraditions

GeneticHeritage

NewInformation Previous

Experience

Analyses &Synthesis

FeedForward

FeedForward

Implicit Guidance& Control

Implicit Guidance& Control

Unfolding Interaction With EnvironmentUnfolding

Interaction With Environment Feedback

Feedback

OutsideInformation

Unfolding Circumstances

Observe Orient Decide Act

Shaping the Unfolding Situation

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Impression▪ In examining these many points of view one is bombarded with the notion

that:

– It is advantageous to possess a variety of responses that can be applied rapidly to gain sustenance, avoid danger, and diminish adversary’s capacity for independent action.

– The simpler organisms—those that make-up man as well as man working with other men in a higher level context—must cooperate or, better yet, harmonize their activities in their endeavors to survive as an organic synthesis.

– To shape and adapt to change one cannot be passive; instead one must take the initiative.

▪ Put more simply and directly: the above comments leave one with the impression that variety/rapidity/harmony/initiative (and their interaction) seem to be key qualities that permit one to shape and adapt to an ever-changing environment.

▪ With this impression in mind together with our notion of getting inside an adversary’s O-O-D-A loop we will proceed in our historical investigation.

12

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The kinds of actions Boyd is talking about

Create, exploit, and magnify

▪ Ambiguity

Alternative or competing impressions of events as they may or may not be.

▪ Deception

An impression of events as they are not. ▪ Novelty

Impressions associated with events/ideas that are unfamiliar or have not been experienced before.

▪ Fast transient maneuvers

Irregular and rapid/abrupt shift from one maneuver event/state to another.

▪ Effort (cheng/ch'i or Nebenpunkte/Schwerpunkt)

An expenditure of energy or an irruption of violence—focused into, or thru, features that permit an organic whole to exist.

Payoff ▪ Disorientation

Mismatch between events one (seemingly) observes or anticipates and events (or efforts) he must react or adapt to.

▪ Surprise Disorientation generated by perceiving extreme change (of events or efforts) over a short period of time.

▪ Shock Paralyzing state of disorientation generated by extreme or violent change (of events or efforts) over a short period of time.

▪ Disruption State of being split-apart, broken-up, or torn asunder.

Aim

Generate many non-cooperative centers of gravity, as well as disorient or disrupt those that adversary depends upon, in order to magnify friction, shatter cohesion, produce paralysis, and bring about his collapse. 115

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And theseNegative factors

▪ Menace:

Impressions of danger to one’s well being and survival

▪ Uncertainty:

Impressions, or atmosphere, generated by events that appear ambiguous, erratic, contradictory, unfamiliar, chaotic, etc.

▪ Mistrust:

Atmosphere of doubt and suspicion that loosens human bonds among members of an organic whole or between organic wholes

Counterweights ▪ Initiative:

Internal drive to think and take action without being urged

▪ Adaptability: Power to adjust or change in order to cope with new or unforeseen circumstances

▪ Harmony: Interaction of apparently disconnected events or entities in a connected way

125

Aim

Pump-up friction via negative factors to breed fear, anxiety, and alienation in order to generate many non-cooperative centers of gravity, as well as subvert those that adversary depends upon, thereby sever moral bonds that permit adversary to exist as an organic whole.

Simultaneously,

build-up and play counterweights against negative factors to diminish internal friction, as well as surface courage, confidence, and esprit, thereby make possible the human interactions needed to create moral bonds that permit us, as an organic whole, to shape and adapt to change.

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Implicit guidance & control

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FeedForwardObservations Decision

(Hypothesis)Action (Test)

CulturalTraditions

GeneticHeritage

NewInformation Previous

Experience

Analyses &Synthesis

FeedForward

FeedForward

Implicit Guidance& Control

Unfolding Interaction With EnvironmentUnfolding

Interaction With Environment Feedback

Feedback

OutsideInformation

Unfolding Circumstances

Observe Orient Act

How you should operate (most of the time)

Implicit Guidance& Control

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Insight

The key idea is to emphasize implicit over explicit in order to gain a favorable mismatch in friction and time (i.e, ours lower than any adversary) for superiority in shaping and adapting to circumstances.

!? Raises question ?

How do we do this?

ORGANIC DESIGN 22

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ORGANIC DESIGN 18

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Message Expose individuals, with different skills and abilities, against a variety of situations—whereby each individual can observe and orient himself simultaneously to the others and to the variety of changing situations.

ORGANIC DESIGN 18

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Message Expose individuals, with different skills and abilities, against a variety of situations—whereby each individual can observe and orient himself simultaneously to the others and to the variety of changing situations.

? Why ? In such an environment, a harmony, or focus and direction, in operations is created by the bonds of implicit communications and trust that evolve as a consequence of the similar mental images or impressions each individual creates and commits to memory by repeatedly sharing the same variety of experiences in the same ways.

ORGANIC DESIGN 18

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Message Expose individuals, with different skills and abilities, against a variety of situations—whereby each individual can observe and orient himself simultaneously to the others and to the variety of changing situations.

? Why ? In such an environment, a harmony, or focus and direction, in operations is created by the bonds of implicit communications and trust that evolve as a consequence of the similar mental images or impressions each individual creates and commits to memory by repeatedly sharing the same variety of experiences in the same ways.

Beneficial payoff A command and control system, whose secret lies in what’s unstated or not communicated to one another (in an explicit sense)—in order to exploit lower-level initiative yet realize higher-level intent, thereby diminish friction and compress time, hence gain both quickness and security.

ORGANIC DESIGN 18

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Message

ORGANIC DESIGN 23

Which we have seen before

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Message

▪ Suppress tendency to build-up explicit internal arrangements that hinder interaction with external world.

ORGANIC DESIGN 23

Which we have seen before

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Message

▪ Suppress tendency to build-up explicit internal arrangements that hinder interaction with external world.

Instead

▪ Arrange setting and circumstances so that leaders and subordinates alike are given opportunity to continuously interact with external world, and with each other, in order to more quickly make many-sided implicit cross-referencing projections, empathies, correlations, and rejections as well as create the similar images or impressions, hence a similar implicit orientation, needed to form an organic whole.

ORGANIC DESIGN 23

Which we have seen before

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Message

▪ Suppress tendency to build-up explicit internal arrangements that hinder interaction with external world.

Instead

▪ Arrange setting and circumstances so that leaders and subordinates alike are given opportunity to continuously interact with external world, and with each other, in order to more quickly make many-sided implicit cross-referencing projections, empathies, correlations, and rejections as well as create the similar images or impressions, hence a similar implicit orientation, needed to form an organic whole.

Why?

▪ A similar implicit orientation for commanders and subordinates alike will allow them to:

ORGANIC DESIGN 23

Which we have seen before

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Message

▪ Suppress tendency to build-up explicit internal arrangements that hinder interaction with external world.

Instead

▪ Arrange setting and circumstances so that leaders and subordinates alike are given opportunity to continuously interact with external world, and with each other, in order to more quickly make many-sided implicit cross-referencing projections, empathies, correlations, and rejections as well as create the similar images or impressions, hence a similar implicit orientation, needed to form an organic whole.

Why?

▪ A similar implicit orientation for commanders and subordinates alike will allow them to:

– Diminish their friction and reduce time, thereby permit them to:

ORGANIC DESIGN 23

Which we have seen before

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Message

▪ Suppress tendency to build-up explicit internal arrangements that hinder interaction with external world.

Instead

▪ Arrange setting and circumstances so that leaders and subordinates alike are given opportunity to continuously interact with external world, and with each other, in order to more quickly make many-sided implicit cross-referencing projections, empathies, correlations, and rejections as well as create the similar images or impressions, hence a similar implicit orientation, needed to form an organic whole.

Why?

▪ A similar implicit orientation for commanders and subordinates alike will allow them to:

– Diminish their friction and reduce time, thereby permit them to:

– Exploit variety/rapidity while maintaining harmony/initiative, thereby permit them to:

ORGANIC DESIGN 23

Which we have seen before

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Message

▪ Suppress tendency to build-up explicit internal arrangements that hinder interaction with external world.

Instead

▪ Arrange setting and circumstances so that leaders and subordinates alike are given opportunity to continuously interact with external world, and with each other, in order to more quickly make many-sided implicit cross-referencing projections, empathies, correlations, and rejections as well as create the similar images or impressions, hence a similar implicit orientation, needed to form an organic whole.

Why?

▪ A similar implicit orientation for commanders and subordinates alike will allow them to:

– Diminish their friction and reduce time, thereby permit them to:

– Exploit variety/rapidity while maintaining harmony/initiative, thereby permit them to:

– Get inside adversary’s O-O-D-A loops, thereby:

ORGANIC DESIGN 23

Which we have seen before

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Message

▪ Suppress tendency to build-up explicit internal arrangements that hinder interaction with external world.

Instead

▪ Arrange setting and circumstances so that leaders and subordinates alike are given opportunity to continuously interact with external world, and with each other, in order to more quickly make many-sided implicit cross-referencing projections, empathies, correlations, and rejections as well as create the similar images or impressions, hence a similar implicit orientation, needed to form an organic whole.

Why?

▪ A similar implicit orientation for commanders and subordinates alike will allow them to:

– Diminish their friction and reduce time, thereby permit them to:

– Exploit variety/rapidity while maintaining harmony/initiative, thereby permit them to:

– Get inside adversary’s O-O-D-A loops, thereby:

– Magnify adversary’s friction and stretch-out his time (for a favorable mismatch in friction and time), thereby:

ORGANIC DESIGN 23

Which we have seen before

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Message

▪ Suppress tendency to build-up explicit internal arrangements that hinder interaction with external world.

Instead

▪ Arrange setting and circumstances so that leaders and subordinates alike are given opportunity to continuously interact with external world, and with each other, in order to more quickly make many-sided implicit cross-referencing projections, empathies, correlations, and rejections as well as create the similar images or impressions, hence a similar implicit orientation, needed to form an organic whole.

Why?

▪ A similar implicit orientation for commanders and subordinates alike will allow them to:

– Diminish their friction and reduce time, thereby permit them to:

– Exploit variety/rapidity while maintaining harmony/initiative, thereby permit them to:

– Get inside adversary’s O-O-D-A loops, thereby:

– Magnify adversary’s friction and stretch-out his time (for a favorable mismatch in friction and time), thereby:

– Deny adversary the opportunity to cope with events/efforts as they unfold. ORGANIC DESIGN 23

Which we have seen before

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Brutal reality

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FeedForward

Decision (Hypothesis)

Action (Test)

FeedForward

Implicit Guidance& Control

Unfolding Interaction With Environment

Feedback

Feedback

Observations

CulturalTraditions

GeneticHeritage

NewInformation Previous

Experience

Analyses &Synthesis

FeedForward

Implicit Guidance& Control

Unfolding Interaction With Environment

OutsideInformation

Unfolding Circumstances

Observe Orient Decide Act

Where it starts to get nasty

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Boyd on Observation

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Boyd on Observation

▪ He says practically nothing

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Boyd on Observation

▪ He says practically nothing

▪ But Observation is the only feed into Orientation

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Boyd on Observation

▪ He says practically nothing

▪ But Observation is the only feed into Orientation

▪ What he tends to emphasize is the idea of creating a deep understanding, where there is no separation of observer and observed. For example: “Guerrillas become indistinguishable from people …” (Patterns 95)

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In other words, it’s not a philosophy where you passively sit back and receive intelligence briefings (remember “probe and test”?)

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Some ideas from another sphere

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Some ideas from another sphere

▪ When you start with an honest and diligent effort to determine the truth of the situation, the right decisions [note – he really means “actions”] often become self evident.

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Some ideas from another sphere

▪ When you start with an honest and diligent effort to determine the truth of the situation, the right decisions [note – he really means “actions”] often become self evident.

▪ Leadership is about creating a climate where the truth is heard and the brutal facts confronted.

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Some ideas from another sphere

▪ When you start with an honest and diligent effort to determine the truth of the situation, the right decisions [note – he really means “actions”] often become self evident.

▪ Leadership is about creating a climate where the truth is heard and the brutal facts confronted.

From Jim Collins, Good to Great,Chapter 4, “Confront the Brutal Facts

(But Never Lose Faith)”

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Question

How do you know you and your team are confronting the brutal facts?

(Oh really? Show me)

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DECISIONS

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FeedForward

Decision (Hypothesis)

Action (Test)

FeedForward

Implicit Guidance& Control

Unfolding Interaction With Environment

Feedback

Feedback

Observations

CulturalTraditions

GeneticHeritage

NewInformation Previous

Experience

Analyses &Synthesis

FeedForward

Implicit Guidance& Control

Unfolding Interaction With Environment

OutsideInformation

Unfolding Circumstances

Observe Orient Decide Act

Decision?

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Why do we need explicit decisions?

▪ Recall that Boyd insisted that we use implicit guidance and control:

!111

The key idea is to emphasize implicit over explicit in order to gain a favorable mismatch in friction and time (i.e, ours lower than any adversary) for superiority in shaping and adapting to circumstances. Organic Design, 16

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Viewed in This Light

The preceding statements seem to suggest that the "Simple-Minded Message" presented near the beginning whereby:

▪ Science can be viewed as a self-correcting process of observation, hypothesis, and test

whereas

▪ Engineering can be viewed as a self-correcting process of observation, design, and test should be modified as follows:

▪ Science can be viewed as a self-correcting process of observations, analyses/synthesis, hypothesis, and test

whereas

▪ Engineering can be viewed as a self-correcting process of observations, analyses/synthesis, design, and test.

CONCEPTUAL SPIRAL 26

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Transients ▪ Observe, orient, decide and act more

inconspicuously, more quickly, and with more irregularity …

!or put another way

!▪ Operate inside adversary’s observation-orientation-

decision action loops or get inside his mind-time-space.

Intentions ▪ Probe and test adversary to unmask strengths,

weaknesses, maneuvers, and intentions. ▪ Employ a variety of measures that interweave menace-

uncertainty-mistrust with tangles of ambiguity-deception-novelty as basis to sever adversary’s moral ties and disorient …

▪ Select initiative (or response) that is least expected. ▪ Establish focus of main effort together with other effort

and pursue directions that permit many happenings, offer many branches, and threaten alternative objectives.

▪ Move along paths of least resistance (to reinforce and exploit success).

▪ Exploit, rather than disrupt or destroy, those differences, frictions, and obsessions of adversary organism that interfere with his ability to cope …

▪ Subvert, disorient, disrupt, overload, or seize adversary’s vulnerable, yet critical, connections, centers, and activities … in order to dismember organism and isolate remnants for wrap-up or absorption.

▪ Generate uncertainty, confusion, disorder, panic, chaos … to shatter cohesion, produce paralysis and bring about collapse.

▪ Become an extraordinary commander.

permits one to

132

Science and maneuver

And update your own orientation

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Illumination

▪ Novelty is not only produced by the practice of science/engineering and the pursuit of technology, it is also produced by the forces of nature, by our own thinking and doing as well as by others. Furthermore, novelty is produced continuously, if somewhat erratically or haphazardly. Now, in order to thrive and grow in such a world, we must match our thinking and doing, hence our orientation, with that emerging novelty. Yet, any orientation constrained by experiences before that novelty emerges (as well as by the Grand Message discussed earlier) introduces mismatches that confuse or disorient us. However, the analytical/synthetic process, previously described, permits us to address these mismatches so that we can rematch thereby reorient our thinking and action with that novelty. Over and over, this continuing whirl of reorientation, mismatches, analyses/synthesis enables us to comprehend, cope with, and shape as well as be shaped by the novelty that literally flows around and over us.

CONCEPTUAL SPIRAL 28

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Why do we need explicit decisions?

▪ Recall that Boyd insisted that we use implicit guidance and control

▪ When would you use explicit decisions?

▪ Any others?

!115

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A winner is someone—individual or group—who can build snowmobiles, and employ them in an appropriate fashion, when facing uncertainty and unpredictable change. (Boyd’s “Revelation”)

In other words: !• Build • Employ - appropriate fashion - facing uncertainty - facing unpredictable change

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Build Snowmobiles

!117

ObserveOrient

Hypothesis Test

The OODA “loop” when learning, training, or otherwise preparing

IG&CIG&C A simplistic interpretation: This is the OODA loop of Conceptual Spiral, of adding to our repertoire, of science, engineering, and technology. This represents shih of potential energy—improving our ability to act in the future.

Analyses & Synthesis

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Employ

!118

The ideal OODA “loop” when acting: Using IG&C as much as possible, but employing explicit G&C when necessary

This is the OODA loop of operations—favoring implicit over explicit—representing such aspects of shih as rushing water, diving hawks, and taking & maintaining the initiative. It also represents the release / transient (which Gimian & Boyce call the “node.”) !Note that the ability to act in this way is created using the OODA “loop” of the previous slide.

ObserveOrient Explicit

G&C Act

IG&CIG&C IG&C

Analyses & Synthesis

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Employ

!119

ObserveOrient Explicit

G&C Act

IG&CIG&C IG&C

Hypothesis/Predict

Analyses & Synthesis

Another view: Even in operations, we are still doing science—updating Orientation—and engineering—adding to our repertoire by creating and testing new actions, which also changes our Orientation.

Note that this also illustrates the potential energy aspect of shih because we are improving our ability to act in the future.

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Implies that we continue to improve, improvise, modify, etc.—that is build/tweak snowmobiles—even in the middle of an operation

A winner is someone—individual or group—who can build snowmobiles, and employ them in an appropriate fashion, when facing uncertainty and unpredictable change. (Boyd’s “Revelation”)

In other words: !• Build • Employ - appropriate fashion - facing uncertainty - facing unpredictable change

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I almost forgot Behendigkeit

!121

Can anybody see a problem with what we’ve been discussing?

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Here’s what will happen

!122

Using the rational, analytical investment processes that most well-managed companies have developed, it is nearly impossible to build a cogent case for diverting resources from known customer needs in established markets to markets and customers that seem insignificant or do not yet exist. Bower & Christensen, “Disruptive Technologies: Catching the Wave” Harvard Business Review, January-February 1995, page 4-5

You can become very good and very agile at operating within one “pattern of ideas and actions” (to quote Boyd)

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!123

OODA loops organize into “pattern of ideas and actions” (Boyd’s term)

AKA strange attractors, deep grooves, ruts, dogma

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Grand Message (Continued)

Which altogether imply that:

People using theories or systems evolved from a variety of information will find it increasingly difficult and ultimately impossible to interact with and comprehend phenomena or systems that move increasingly beyond and away from that variety—that is, they will become more and more isolated from that which they are trying to observe or deal with—unless they exploit the new variety to modify their theories/systems or create new theories/systems.

Conceptual Spiral 14

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!125

Behendigkeit is the ability to break out of such a pattern.

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!126

How do we do it?

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STRATEGIC GAME 45

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? What’s the point of all this ?

STRATEGIC GAME 45

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? What’s the point of all this ?

▪ We can’t just look at our own personal experiences or use the same mental recipes over and over again; we’ve got to look at other disciplines and activities and relate or connect them to what we know from our experiences and the strategic world we live in.

STRATEGIC GAME 45

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? What’s the point of all this ?

▪ We can’t just look at our own personal experiences or use the same mental recipes over and over again; we’ve got to look at other disciplines and activities and relate or connect them to what we know from our experiences and the strategic world we live in.

if we can do this

STRATEGIC GAME 45

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? What’s the point of all this ?

▪ We can’t just look at our own personal experiences or use the same mental recipes over and over again; we’ve got to look at other disciplines and activities and relate or connect them to what we know from our experiences and the strategic world we live in.

if we can do this

▪ We will be able to surface new repertoires and (hopefully) develop Fingerspitzengefühl for folding our adversaries back inside themselves, morally-mentally-physically—so that they can neither appreciate nor cope with what’s happening—without suffering the same fate ourselves.

STRATEGIC GAME 45

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!128

Theme

• Wide freedom for subordinates to exercise imagination and initiative—yet harmonize within intent of superior commanders.

How is this atmosphere achieved?

• By example, leaders (at all levels) must demonstrate requisite physical energy, mental agility, and moral authority to inspire subordinates to enthusiastically cooperate and take initiative within superior’s intent.

What is the price?

• Courage to share danger and discomfort at the front;

• Willingness to support and promote (unconventional or difficult) subordinates who accept danger, demonstrate initiative, take risks, and come up with new ways toward mission accomplishment;

• Dedication and resolve to face up to and master uncomfortable circumstances that fly in the face of the traditional solution.

Benefit

• Internal simplicity that permits rapid adaptability.

Observations related to moral conflict Gen. Hermann Balck

118

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!128

Theme

• Wide freedom for subordinates to exercise imagination and initiative—yet harmonize within intent of superior commanders.

How is this atmosphere achieved?

• By example, leaders (at all levels) must demonstrate requisite physical energy, mental agility, and moral authority to inspire subordinates to enthusiastically cooperate and take initiative within superior’s intent.

What is the price?

• Courage to share danger and discomfort at the front;

• Willingness to support and promote (unconventional or difficult) subordinates who accept danger, demonstrate initiative, take risks, and come up with new ways toward mission accomplishment;

• Dedication and resolve to face up to and master uncomfortable circumstances that fly in the face of the traditional solution.

Benefit

• Internal simplicity that permits rapid adaptability.

Observations related to moral conflict Gen. Hermann Balck

118

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For example

Janet Kelso had joined us to head a bioinformatics group… An unassuming but effective leader, she was able to form a cohesive team out of the quirky personalities that made up the group.

One of these personalities was Udo Stenzel, who had a misanthropic streak. Convinced that most people, esp. those higher up in academic hierarchies, were pompous fools, he had dropped out of university before finishing his degree. Nevertheless, he was probably more capable as a programmer and logical thinker than most of his teachers … even if his conviction that he always knew everything best could drive me mad at times.

Svante Pääbo, Neanderthal Man, loc. 2716.!129

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No problem. You’re already doing this

!130

Oh really? Show me.

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FOURTH BIG IDEA: GRAND STRATEGY

Again, he doesn’t define the term, but he explains what he wants it to do.

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Grand strategy

▪ Reasons why all of the above isn’t enough?

▪ Differences between war and business?

▪ Bring in what’s called the “moral dimension”

▪ What society expects

▪ What’s “right”

▪ “The mind follows where the heart leads.”

▪ Group / peer pressure

!132

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Categories of conflict

110

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Categories of conflict

• Now looking back and reflecting upon the panorama of military history, we can imagine three kinds of human conflict:

– Attrition warfare—as practiced by the Emperor Napoleon, by all sides during the 19th century and during World War I, by the Allies during World War II, and by present-day nuclear planners.

– Maneuver conflict—as practiced by the Mongols, General Bonaparte, Confederate General Stonewall Jackson, Union General Ulysses S. Grant, Hitler’s generals (in particular Manstein, Guderian, Balck, Rommel) and the Americans under Generals Patton and MacArthur.

– Moral conflict—as practiced by the Mongols, most guerrilla leaders, a very few counter-guerrillas (such as Magsaysay) and certain others from Sun Tzu to the present.

• With these comments in mind let’s look into the essentials of each.

111

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Attrition observations

• Firepower, as a destructive force, is king.

• Protection (trenches, armor, dispersion, etc.) is used to weaken or dilute effects of enemy firepower.

• Mobility is used to bring firepower to bear or to evade enemy fire.

• Measures of success are (now) “body count” and targets destroyed.

• “Seize and hold terrain objectives” replaces Napoleon’s dictum: Destroy enemy army.

112

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Essence of attrition warfare

Create and exploit

• Destructive force:

Weapons (mechanical, chemical, biological, nuclear, etc.) that kill, maim, and/or otherwise generate widespread destruction.

• Protection:

Ability to minimize the concentrated and explosive expression of destructive force by taking cover behind natural or manmade obstacles, by dispersion of people and resources, and by being obscure using camouflage, smoke, etc., together with cover and dispersion.

• Mobility:

Speed or rapidity to focus destructive force or move away from adversary’s destructive focus.

Payoff • Frightful and debilitating attrition via

widespread destruction as basis to: – Break enemy’s will to resist – Seize and hold terrain objectives

Aim Compel enemy to surrender

and sue for peace

113

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Observations regarding maneuver

• Ambiguity, deception, novelty, mobility, and violence (or threat thereof) are used to generate surprise and shock.

• Fire and movement are used in combination, like cheng/ch'i or Nebenpunkte/Schwerpunkt, to tie up, divert, or drain away adversary attention and strength in order to expose as well as menace and exploit vulnerabilities or weaknesses elsewhere.

• Indications of success tend to be qualitative and are related to the widespread onset of confusion and disorder, frequent envelopments, high prisoner counts, or any other phenomenon that suggests inability to adapt to change.

114

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Essence of maneuver conflict

Create, exploit, and magnify

• Ambiguity:

Alternative or competing impressions of events as they may or may not be.

• Deception:

An impression of events as they are not.

• Novelty:

Impressions associated with events/ideas that are unfamiliar or have not been experienced before.

• Fast transient maneuvers:

Irregular and rapid/abrupt shift from one maneuver event/state to another.

• Effort (cheng/ch'i or Nebenpunkte/Schwerpunkt):

An expenditure of energy or an irruption of violence—focused into, or thru, features that permit an organic whole to exist.

Payoff • Disorientation:

Mismatch between events one observes or imagines and events (or efforts) he must react or adapt to.

• Disruption: State of being split-apart, broken-up, or torn asunder.

• Overload: A welter of threatening events/efforts beyond one’s mental or physical capacity to adapt or endure.

Aim Generate many non-cooperative centers of gravity, as well as disorient, disrupt, or overload those that adversary depends upon, in order to magnify friction, shatter cohesion, produce paralysis, and bring about his collapse;

or equivalently,

Uncover, create, and exploit many vulnerabilities and weaknesses, hence many opportunities to pull adversary apart and isolate remnants for mop-up or absorption. 117

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Observations related to moral conflictGen. Hermann Balck

Theme

• No fixed recipes for organization, communications, tactics, leadership, etc.

• Wide freedom for subordinates to exercise imagination and initiative—yet harmonize within intent of superior commanders.

• Heavy reliance upon moral (human values) instead of material superiority as basis for cohesion and ultimate success.

• Commanders must create a bond and breadth of experience based upon trust—not mistrust—for cohesion.

How is this atmosphere achieved?

• By example, leaders (at all levels) must demonstrate requisite physical energy, mental agility, and moral authority to inspire subordinates to enthusiastically cooperate and take initiative within superior’s intent.

What is the price?

• Courage to share danger and discomfort at the front;

• Willingness to support and promote (unconventional or difficult) subordinates who accept danger, demonstrate initiative, take risks, and come up with new ways toward mission accomplishment;

• Dedication and resolve to face up to and master uncomfortable circumstances that fly in the face of the traditional solution.

Benefit

• Internal simplicity that permits rapid adaptability.118

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Essence of moral conflict

Negative factors

• Menace:

Impressions of danger to one’s well being and survival

• Uncertainty:

Impressions, or atmosphere, generated by events that appear ambiguous, erratic, contradictory, unfamiliar, chaotic, etc.

• Mistrust:

Atmosphere of doubt and suspicion that loosens human bonds among members of an organic whole or between organic wholes

Counterweights

• Initiative:

Internal drive to think and take action without being urged

• Adaptability:

Power to adjust or change in order to cope with new or unforeseen circumstances

• Harmony:

Interaction of apparently disconnected events or entities in a connected way

125

Aim

Pump up friction via negative factors to breed fear, anxiety, and alienation in order to generate many non-cooperative centers of gravity, as well as subvert those that adversary depends upon, thereby sever moral bonds that permit adversary to exist as an organic whole.

Simultaneously,

Build up and play counterweights against negative factors to diminish internal friction, as well as surface courage, confidence, and esprit, thereby make possible the human interactions needed to create moral bonds that permit us, as an organic whole, to shape and adapt to change.

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!141

Sun Tzu believed that the moral strength and intellectual were decisive in war and that if these were applied properly, war could be waged with certain success. —Griffith’s intro to his translation, 1963, p. 39

The question of how to apply moral strength is the subject of our next several charts. One of the ways Boyd suggested is via “grand strategy.”

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? Raises question ?

How do we connect the tactical and strategic notions, or the theme for disintegration and collapse, with the national goal?

138

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Via a sensible grand strategy that will:

139

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Via a sensible grand strategy that will:

▪ Support national goal.

139

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Via a sensible grand strategy that will:

▪ Support national goal.

▪ Pump-up our resolve, drain-away adversary resolve, and attract the uncommitted.

139

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Via a sensible grand strategy that will:

▪ Support national goal.

▪ Pump-up our resolve, drain-away adversary resolve, and attract the uncommitted.

▪ End conflict on favorable terms.

139

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Via a sensible grand strategy that will:

▪ Support national goal.

▪ Pump-up our resolve, drain-away adversary resolve, and attract the uncommitted.

▪ End conflict on favorable terms.

▪ Ensure that conflict and peace terms do not provide seeds for (unfavorable) future conflict.

139

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Via a sensible grand strategy that will:

▪ Support national goal.

▪ Pump-up our resolve, drain-away adversary resolve, and attract the uncommitted.

▪ End conflict on favorable terms.

▪ Ensure that conflict and peace terms do not provide seeds for (unfavorable) future conflict.

139

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Grand strategy

140

Orientation!

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Grand strategy

Essence

140

Orientation!

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Grand strategy

Essence ▪ Shape pursuit of national goal so that we not only amplify our spirit and

strength (while undermining and isolating our adversaries) but also influence the uncommitted or potential adversaries so that they are drawn toward our philosophy and are empathetic toward our success.

140

Orientation!

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Grand strategy

Essence ▪ Shape pursuit of national goal so that we not only amplify our spirit and

strength (while undermining and isolating our adversaries) but also influence the uncommitted or potential adversaries so that they are drawn toward our philosophy and are empathetic toward our success.

140

Orientation!

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Grand strategy

Essence ▪ Shape pursuit of national goal so that we not only amplify our spirit and

strength (while undermining and isolating our adversaries) but also influence the uncommitted or potential adversaries so that they are drawn toward our philosophy and are empathetic toward our success.

Basis

140

Orientation!

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Grand strategy

Essence ▪ Shape pursuit of national goal so that we not only amplify our spirit and

strength (while undermining and isolating our adversaries) but also influence the uncommitted or potential adversaries so that they are drawn toward our philosophy and are empathetic toward our success.

Basis ▪ An appreciation for the underlying self-interests, critical differences of

opinion, internal contradictions, frictions, obsessions, etc., that we as well as the uncommitted and any potential or real adversaries must contend with.

140

Orientation!

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THE THEME FOR VITALITY AND GROWTH

The culmination of the grand strategy section and for that matter, of Patterns of Conflict – make this Big Idea 4b

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IS “OPERATING INSIDE THE OODA LOOP” ENOUGH?

!146

Pattern• National goal

Improve our fitness, as an organic whole, to shape and cope with an ever-changing environment.

• Grand strategy

Shape pursuit of national goal so that we not only amplify our spirit and strength (while undermining and isolating our adversaries) but also influence the uncommitted or potential adversaries so that they are drawn toward our philosophy and are empathetic toward our success.

• Strategic aim

Diminish adversary’s capacity while improving our capacity to adapt as an organic whole so that our adversary cannot cope—while we can cope—with events/efforts as they unfold.

• Strategy

Penetrate adversary’s moral-mental-physical being to dissolve his moral fiber, disorient his mental images, disrupt his operations, and overload his system, as well as subvert, shatter, seize, or otherwise subdue those moral-mental-physical bastions, connections, or activities that he depends upon, in order to destroy internal harmony, produce paralysis, and collapse adversary’s will to resist.

• Grand tactics

Operate inside adversary’s observation-orientation-decision-action loops, or get inside his mind-time-space, to create tangles of threatening and/or non-threatening events/efforts as well as repeatedly generate mismatches between those events/efforts adversary observes, or imagines, and those he must react to, to survive;

thereby

Enmesh adversary in an amorphous, menacing, and unpredictable world of uncertainty, doubt, mistrust, confusion, disorder, fear, panic, chaos … and/or fold adversary back inside himself;

thereby

Maneuver adversary beyond his moral-mental-physical capacity to adapt or endure so that he can neither divine our intentions nor focus his efforts to cope with the unfolding strategic design or related decisive strokes as they penetrate, splinter, isolate or envelop, and overwhelm him.

• Tactics

Observe-orient-decide-act more inconspicuously, more quickly, and with more irregularity as basis to keep or gain initiative as well as shape and shift main effort to repeatedly and unexpectedly penetrate vulnerabilities and weaknesses exposed by that effort or other effort(s) that tie-up, divert, or drain away adversary attention (and strength) elsewhere.

141

What we’ve been doing so far is evolving better and better ways to operate in this area.

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!147

Insight

On one hand, as shown on the previous chart, the national goal and grand strategy tend to be constructive in nature. On the other hand, the strategic aim, strategy, grand tactics, and tactics are destructive in nature and operate over a shorter time frame.

In this sense, the upper two and the latter four notions, as expressed, appear to be in disharmony with one another. Yet, application of these latter four strategic and tactical notions permit real leadership to avoid high attrition, avoid widespread destruction, and gain a quick victory. This, combined with shattered cohesion, paralysis, and rapid collapse demonstrated by the existing adversary regime, makes it appear corrupt, incompetent, and unfit to govern.

Under these circumstances, leaders and statesmen offering generous terms can form the basis for a viable peace. In this sense, the first two and the latter four notions can be in harmony with one another.

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Further elaboration

Up to this point—by repeatedly adding, stripping away, and recombining many different, yet similar, ideas and thoughts—we have examined the nature of conflict, survival, and conquest in many different ways.

A review and further manipulation of the ideas and thoughts that make up these different ways suggest that for success over the long haul and under the most difficult conditions, one needs some unifying vision that can be used to attract the uncommitted as well as pump up friendly resolve and drive and drain away or subvert adversary resolve and drive. In other words, what is needed is a vision rooted in human nature so noble, so attractive that it not only attracts the uncommitted and magnifies the spirit and strength of its adherents, but also undermines the dedication and determination of any competitors or adversaries.

Moreover, such a unifying notion should be so compelling that it acts as a catalyst or beacon around which to evolve those qualities that permit a collective entity or organic whole to improve its stature in the scheme of things. Put another way, we are suggesting a need for a supra-orientation or center-of-gravity that permits leaders and other authorities to inspire their followers and members to enthusiastically take action toward confronting and conquering all obstacles that stand in the way.

Such a scheme can be portrayed as follows:

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Theme for vitality and growthUnifying vision

▪ A grand ideal, overarching theme, or noble philosophy that represents a coherent paradigm within which individuals as well as societies can shape and adapt to unfolding circumstances—yet offers a way to expose flaws of competing or adversary systems.

Ingredients needed to pursue vision ▪ Insight

Ability to peer into and discern the inner nature or workings of things.

▪ Orientation An understanding of unfolding circumstances that is accurate and shared

▪ Harmony

Power to perceive or create interaction of apparently disconnected events or entities in a connected way.

▪ Agility Power to adjust or change in order to influence and cope with new or unforeseen circumstances.

▪ Initiative

Internal drive to think and take action without being urged.

Aim Improve fitness as an organic whole to shape and expand influence or power over the course of events in the world

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WAYS TO PLAY THE MORAL GAME

!150

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Now we can see by going to the beginning

The strategic game is one of

interaction and isolation !A game in which we must be able to diminish adversary’s ability to communicate or interact with his environment while sustaining or improving ours.

Strategic Game 33

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? Raises question ?

!

How do we do this?

Three ways come to mind • Moral

• Mental

• Physical

Strategic Game 34

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? Why should we use these ?

Strategic Game 35

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? Why should we use these ?

▪ Physical

represents the world of matter-energy-information all of us are a part of, live in, and feed upon.

Strategic Game 35

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? Why should we use these ?

▪ Physical

represents the world of matter-energy-information all of us are a part of, live in, and feed upon.

▪ Mental

represents the emotional/intellectual activity we generate to adjust to, or cope with, that physical world.

Strategic Game 35

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? Why should we use these ?

▪ Physical

represents the world of matter-energy-information all of us are a part of, live in, and feed upon.

▪ Mental

represents the emotional/intellectual activity we generate to adjust to, or cope with, that physical world.

▪ Moral

represents the cultural codes of conduct or standards of behavior that constrain, as well as sustain and focus, our emotional/intellectual responses.

Strategic Game 35

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Upon folding these ideas into our interactions/isolation theme we can say:

Strategic Game 36

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Upon folding these ideas into our interactions/isolation theme we can say:

▪ Physical isolation

occurs when we fail to gain support in the form of matter-energy—information from others outside ourselves.

Strategic Game 36

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Upon folding these ideas into our interactions/isolation theme we can say:

▪ Physical isolation

occurs when we fail to gain support in the form of matter-energy—information from others outside ourselves.

▪ Mental isolation

occurs when we fail to discern, perceive, or make sense out of what’s going on around ourselves.

Strategic Game 36

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Upon folding these ideas into our interactions/isolation theme we can say:

▪ Physical isolation

occurs when we fail to gain support in the form of matter-energy—information from others outside ourselves.

▪ Mental isolation

occurs when we fail to discern, perceive, or make sense out of what’s going on around ourselves.

▪ Moral isolation

occurs when we fail to abide by codes of conduct or standards of behavior in a manner deemed acceptable or essential by others outside ourselves.

Strategic Game 36

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While in opposite fashion we can say:

Strategic Game 37

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While in opposite fashion we can say:

▪ Physical interaction

occurs when we freely exchange matter-energy—information with others outside ourselves.

Strategic Game 37

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While in opposite fashion we can say:

▪ Physical interaction

occurs when we freely exchange matter-energy—information with others outside ourselves.

▪ Mental interaction

occurs when we generate images or impressions that match-up with the events or happenings that unfold around ourselves.

Strategic Game 37

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While in opposite fashion we can say:

▪ Physical interaction

occurs when we freely exchange matter-energy—information with others outside ourselves.

▪ Mental interaction

occurs when we generate images or impressions that match-up with the events or happenings that unfold around ourselves.

▪ Moral interaction

occurs when we live by the codes of conduct or standards of behavior that we profess, and others expect us, to uphold.

Strategic Game 37

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! Fine !

But how do we play to this theme and exploit these ideas?

A long “illuminating example” follows, which culminates in the next chart.

Strategic Game 38

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Illuminating example (continued)

Strategic Game 44

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Illuminating example (continued)

Overall Message

Strategic Game 44

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Illuminating example (continued)

Overall Message

▪ The ability to operate at a faster tempo or rhythm than an adversary enables one to fold adversary back inside himself so that he can neither appreciate nor keep-up with what’s going on. He will become disoriented or confused;

Strategic Game 44

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Illuminating example (continued)

Overall Message

▪ The ability to operate at a faster tempo or rhythm than an adversary enables one to fold adversary back inside himself so that he can neither appreciate nor keep-up with what’s going on. He will become disoriented or confused;

which suggests that

Strategic Game 44

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Illuminating example (continued)

Overall Message

▪ The ability to operate at a faster tempo or rhythm than an adversary enables one to fold adversary back inside himself so that he can neither appreciate nor keep-up with what’s going on. He will become disoriented or confused;

which suggests that

▪ Unless such menacing pressure is relieved, adversary will experience various combinations of uncertainty, doubt, confusion, self-deception, indecision, fear, panic, discouragement, despair, etc., which will further:

Strategic Game 44

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Illuminating example (continued)

Overall Message

▪ The ability to operate at a faster tempo or rhythm than an adversary enables one to fold adversary back inside himself so that he can neither appreciate nor keep-up with what’s going on. He will become disoriented or confused;

which suggests that

▪ Unless such menacing pressure is relieved, adversary will experience various combinations of uncertainty, doubt, confusion, self-deception, indecision, fear, panic, discouragement, despair, etc., which will further:

Disorient or twist his mental images/impressions of what’s happening;

Strategic Game 44

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Illuminating example (continued)

Overall Message

▪ The ability to operate at a faster tempo or rhythm than an adversary enables one to fold adversary back inside himself so that he can neither appreciate nor keep-up with what’s going on. He will become disoriented or confused;

which suggests that

▪ Unless such menacing pressure is relieved, adversary will experience various combinations of uncertainty, doubt, confusion, self-deception, indecision, fear, panic, discouragement, despair, etc., which will further:

Disorient or twist his mental images/impressions of what’s happening;

thereby

Strategic Game 44

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Illuminating example (continued)

Overall Message

▪ The ability to operate at a faster tempo or rhythm than an adversary enables one to fold adversary back inside himself so that he can neither appreciate nor keep-up with what’s going on. He will become disoriented or confused;

which suggests that

▪ Unless such menacing pressure is relieved, adversary will experience various combinations of uncertainty, doubt, confusion, self-deception, indecision, fear, panic, discouragement, despair, etc., which will further:

Disorient or twist his mental images/impressions of what’s happening;

thereby

Disrupt his mental/physical maneuvers for dealing with such a menace;

Strategic Game 44

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Illuminating example (continued)

Overall Message

▪ The ability to operate at a faster tempo or rhythm than an adversary enables one to fold adversary back inside himself so that he can neither appreciate nor keep-up with what’s going on. He will become disoriented or confused;

which suggests that

▪ Unless such menacing pressure is relieved, adversary will experience various combinations of uncertainty, doubt, confusion, self-deception, indecision, fear, panic, discouragement, despair, etc., which will further:

Disorient or twist his mental images/impressions of what’s happening;

thereby

Disrupt his mental/physical maneuvers for dealing with such a menace;

thereby

Strategic Game 44

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Illuminating example (continued)

Overall Message

▪ The ability to operate at a faster tempo or rhythm than an adversary enables one to fold adversary back inside himself so that he can neither appreciate nor keep-up with what’s going on. He will become disoriented or confused;

which suggests that

▪ Unless such menacing pressure is relieved, adversary will experience various combinations of uncertainty, doubt, confusion, self-deception, indecision, fear, panic, discouragement, despair, etc., which will further:

Disorient or twist his mental images/impressions of what’s happening;

thereby

Disrupt his mental/physical maneuvers for dealing with such a menace;

thereby

Overload his mental/physical capacity to adapt or endure;

Strategic Game 44

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Illuminating example (continued)

Overall Message

▪ The ability to operate at a faster tempo or rhythm than an adversary enables one to fold adversary back inside himself so that he can neither appreciate nor keep-up with what’s going on. He will become disoriented or confused;

which suggests that

▪ Unless such menacing pressure is relieved, adversary will experience various combinations of uncertainty, doubt, confusion, self-deception, indecision, fear, panic, discouragement, despair, etc., which will further:

Disorient or twist his mental images/impressions of what’s happening;

thereby

Disrupt his mental/physical maneuvers for dealing with such a menace;

thereby

Overload his mental/physical capacity to adapt or endure;

thereby

Strategic Game 44

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Illuminating example (continued)

Overall Message

▪ The ability to operate at a faster tempo or rhythm than an adversary enables one to fold adversary back inside himself so that he can neither appreciate nor keep-up with what’s going on. He will become disoriented or confused;

which suggests that

▪ Unless such menacing pressure is relieved, adversary will experience various combinations of uncertainty, doubt, confusion, self-deception, indecision, fear, panic, discouragement, despair, etc., which will further:

Disorient or twist his mental images/impressions of what’s happening;

thereby

Disrupt his mental/physical maneuvers for dealing with such a menace;

thereby

Overload his mental/physical capacity to adapt or endure;

thereby

Collapse his ability to carry on.

Strategic Game 44

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? What’s the point of all this ? ▪ We can’t just look at our own personal experiences or use the

same mental recipes over and over again; we’ve got to look at other disciplines and activities and relate or connect them to what we know from our experiences and the strategic world we live in.

if we can do this

▪ We will be able to surface new repertoires and (hopefully) develop Fingerspitzengefühl for folding our adversaries back inside themselves, morally-mentally-physically—so that they can neither appreciate nor cope with what’s happening—without suffering the same fate ourselves.

Strategic Game 45

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? What’s the point of all this ? ▪ We can’t just look at our own personal experiences or use the

same mental recipes over and over again; we’ve got to look at other disciplines and activities and relate or connect them to what we know from our experiences and the strategic world we live in.

if we can do this

▪ We will be able to surface new repertoires and (hopefully) develop Fingerspitzengefühl for folding our adversaries back inside themselves, morally-mentally-physically—so that they can neither appreciate nor cope with what’s happening—without suffering the same fate ourselves.

Strategic Game 45

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Which carries us to the? question ?

▪ How do we fold adversaries back inside themselves, morally-mentally-physically … without suffering the same fate ourselves?

or put another way

▪ How do we physically isolate our adversaries yet interact with others outside ourselves?

▪ How do we mentally isolate our adversaries yet keep in touch hence interact, with unfolding events?

▪ How do we morally isolate our adversaries yet maintain the trust/confidence of others and thereby interact with them?

Strategic Game 46

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Illumination

Strategic Game 47

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Illumination

▪ Physically we can isolate adversaries by severing their communications with outside world as well as by severing their internal communications to one another. We can accomplish this by cutting them off from their allies and the uncommitted via diplomatic, psychological, and other efforts. To cut them off from one another we should penetrate their system by being unpredictable, otherwise they can counter our efforts.

Strategic Game 47

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Illumination

▪ Physically we can isolate adversaries by severing their communications with outside world as well as by severing their internal communications to one another. We can accomplish this by cutting them off from their allies and the uncommitted via diplomatic, psychological, and other efforts. To cut them off from one another we should penetrate their system by being unpredictable, otherwise they can counter our efforts.

▪ Mentally we can isolate our adversaries by presenting them with ambiguous, deceptive, or novel situations, as well as by operating at a tempo or rhythm they can neither make out nor keep up with. Operating inside their O-O-D-A loops will accomplish just this by disorienting or twisting their mental images so that they can neither appreciate nor cope with what’s really going on.

Strategic Game 47

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Illumination

▪ Physically we can isolate adversaries by severing their communications with outside world as well as by severing their internal communications to one another. We can accomplish this by cutting them off from their allies and the uncommitted via diplomatic, psychological, and other efforts. To cut them off from one another we should penetrate their system by being unpredictable, otherwise they can counter our efforts.

▪ Mentally we can isolate our adversaries by presenting them with ambiguous, deceptive, or novel situations, as well as by operating at a tempo or rhythm they can neither make out nor keep up with. Operating inside their O-O-D-A loops will accomplish just this by disorienting or twisting their mental images so that they can neither appreciate nor cope with what’s really going on.

▪ Morally adversaries isolate themselves when they visibly improve their well being to the detriment of others (i.e. their allies, the uncommitted, etc.) by violating codes of conduct or behavior patterns that they profess to uphold or others expect them to uphold.

Strategic Game 47

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Expected payoff

Disintegration and collapse, unless adversaries change their behavior patterns to conform to what is deemed acceptable by others outside themselves.

Strategic Game 48

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!162

Rather, the tens of thousands of Ukrainians who peacefully occupied Maidan – and the more than 75 killed last week by security forces – were united around common values such as honesty, integrity, and equal regard for all. These values helped maintain discipline and restraint among the protesters even as snipers fired on them from rooftops. The moral force of the values eventually led police to ignore orders from Mr. Yanukovych, who discovered too late that power does not come from the barrel of a gun. (Emp. added) !

“The real triumph of Ukraine's protests” Editorial, Christian Science Monitor, 23 February 2014

Question: Do you have to have to be a good person to win at moral conflict?

Note: A similar thing happened to the Shah.

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Illumination(continued)

Strategic Game 49

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Illumination(continued)

▪ Physically we interact by opening-up and maintaining many channels of communication with the outside world, hence with others out there, that we depend upon for sustenance, nourishment, or support.

Strategic Game 49

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Illumination(continued)

▪ Physically we interact by opening-up and maintaining many channels of communication with the outside world, hence with others out there, that we depend upon for sustenance, nourishment, or support.

▪ Mentally we interact by selecting information from a variety of sources or channels in order to generate mental images or impressions that match-up with the world of events or happenings that we are trying to understand and cope with.

Strategic Game 49

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Illumination(continued)

▪ Physically we interact by opening-up and maintaining many channels of communication with the outside world, hence with others out there, that we depend upon for sustenance, nourishment, or support.

▪ Mentally we interact by selecting information from a variety of sources or channels in order to generate mental images or impressions that match-up with the world of events or happenings that we are trying to understand and cope with.

▪ Morally we interact with others by avoiding mismatches between what we say we are, what we are, and the world we have to deal with, as well as by abiding by those other cultural codes or standards that we are expected to uphold.

Strategic Game 49

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Vitality and growth, with the opportunity to shape and adapt to unfolding events thereby influence the ideas and actions of others.

Expected payoff

Strategic Game 50

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Theme for vitality and growthUnifying vision

▪ A grand ideal, overarching theme, or noble philosophy that represents a coherent paradigm within which individuals as well as societies can shape and adapt to unfolding circumstances—yet offers a way to expose flaws of competing or adversary systems.

Ingredients needed to pursue vision ▪ Insight

Ability to peer into and discern the inner nature or workings of things.

▪ Orientation An understanding of unfolding circumstances that is accurate and shared

▪ Harmony

Power to perceive or create interaction of apparently disconnected events or entities in a connected way.

▪ Agility Power to adjust or change in order to influence and cope with new or unforeseen circumstances.

▪ Initiative

Internal drive to think and take action without being urged.

Aim Improve fitness as an organic whole to shape and expand influence or power over the course of events in the world

Patterns of Conflict 144

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Theme for vitality and growthUnifying vision

▪ A grand ideal, overarching theme, or noble philosophy that represents a coherent paradigm within which individuals as well as societies can shape and adapt to unfolding circumstances—yet offers a way to expose flaws of competing or adversary systems.

Ingredients needed to pursue vision ▪ Insight

Ability to peer into and discern the inner nature or workings of things.

▪ Orientation An understanding of unfolding circumstances that is accurate and shared

▪ Harmony

Power to perceive or create interaction of apparently disconnected events or entities in a connected way.

▪ Agility Power to adjust or change in order to influence and cope with new or unforeseen circumstances.

▪ Initiative

Internal drive to think and take action without being urged.

Aim Improve fitness as an organic whole to shape and expand influence or power over the course of events in the world

Patterns of Conflict 144

CR Note: For more ideas on moral conflict, Google satyagraha

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WE SHOULD END

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WE SHOULD ENDWhere we began

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Boyd’s Big Ideas

1. Operating inside their OODA loops

2. The EBFAS Climate – how you build organizations that can operate inside their OODA loops

3. The OODA “loop” itself

4. Grand Strategy and the focus on vitality and growth

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Boyd’s list of fundamental concepts

▪ Compress own time and stretch-out adversary time.

▪ Generate unequal distributions as basis to focus moral-mental-physical effort for local superiority and decisive leverage.

▪ Diminish own friction (or entropy) and magnify adversary friction (or entropy).

▪ Operate inside adversary’s observation—orientation-decision-action loops or get inside his mind-time-space.

▪ Penetrate adversary organism and bring about his collapse.

▪ Amplify our spirit and strength, drain-away adversaries’ and attract the uncommitted.

184

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Any final thoughts or questions?

Boyd is all about achieving a deep understanding of a small number of fundamental concepts:

– What you do with customers and competitors: Operate inside their OODA loops

– What you do with your own team: Improve the EBFAS climate

– What you do with customers and potential customers: Grand strategy

And then there’s the OODA loop.

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About Strategic Game 45

A winner is someone—individual or group—who can build snowmobiles, and employ them in an appropriate fashion, when facing uncertainty and unpredictable change. (Boyd’s “Revelation”) !Which we can restate as: !A winner is someone—individual or group—who has Fingerspitzengefühl for building snowmobiles, and employing them in an appropriate fashion, when facing uncertainty and unpredictable change.

!170

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Eastern Philosophy

Science & Math

Theory and History of Conflict

Alexander; Belisarius Genghis

KhanGustavus II Adolphus;

Frederick the Great

Napoleon

Impact of TechnologySoviet

Revolutionary Strategy

BlitzkriegGuerrilla Warfare

Clausewitz &Jomini

Sun Tzu

LeninLawrence;

Lettow-Vorbeck;

Mao

Manstein, Ludendorff,

Guderian, Fuller, etc.

Neuroscience & genetics

Theory of Evolution by Natural Selection

Psychology,Anthropology,

Sociology

Complexity; self-organization

Taoism

Zen

Samurai Adaptations (Musashi, Takuan,

Cleary, etc.)

Ohno, Toyota

Production System

Entropy, Heisenberg,

Gödel

Epistemology: Kuhn,

Polanyi,

We cannot determine the character or nature of a system within itself, and attempts to do so will produce confusion and disorder.

1976

Version 5: 9 July 2013

Dissipative Structures (Prigogine)

• Operating Inside OODA loops

• Harmonizing Tactics, Operations, Strategy, and Grand Strategy to Achieve National Goal

• Attrition Warfare; Maneuver & Moral Conflict

• Theme for Vitality & Growth: IOHAI

1976-1986

Interaction & Isolation

Leadership & Appreciation

1987

Conceptual spiral of insight, imagination, and initiative

1992

Gödel, Lowenheim & Skolem, Tarski, Church, Turing,

Shannon, Chaitin

Science & Math

Final Version of OODA Loop

1996

Personal Experience:

Air-Air Combat, etc.

© Chet Richards 2013; reproduction encouraged

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Discussion topics

▪ Slide 14: What does “lead from the front” mean for business?

▪ Slide 45: How can you tell if you have “deep understanding”?

▪ Slide 63: What does “operating inside the OODA loop” mean for business? does it have to mean anything?

▪ Slide 108: How do you know you and your team are confronting the brutal facts? (i.e., how would you convince anybody else?)

!172

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Discussion topics, continued

▪ Slide 128: Are you displaying a “Willingness to support and promote (unconventional or difficult) subordinates who accept danger, demonstrate initiative, take risks, and come up with new ways toward mission accomplishment”? Oh, really? Do you know what other people in your organization say about this? Really?

▪ Slide 163: Do you have to be a good person to win at moral conflict?

▪ Slide 165: What are you doing to make IOHAI a Schwerpunkt? My feeling is that it should be the highest level Schwerpunkt. Do you agree?

!173