Buncombe County Economic Overview by SYNEVA

7/29/2019 Buncombe County Economic Overview by SYNEVA

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BuncombeCountyHealthandHumanServicesBoard

February22,2013

BuncombeCounty

EconomicOverview

1


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2

199019931980 19811983 20012005

2007?(Jan2013)

7%

6%

5%

4%

3%

2%

1%

0%

1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53 57 61

Months

PastRecessions&MonthsToReturnToPreRecessionEmployment

Source:U.S.BureauofLaborStatistics,NBER


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3

CurrentRecessionMonthstoPreRecessionEmployment

NorthCarolina(181,176jobs,5%)

Buncombe

(3,809jobs,4%)

14%

12%

10%

8%

6%

4%

2%

0%

1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53 57


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TotalEmploymentAshevilleMetro

4

155,000

160,000

165,000

170,000

175,000

180,000

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012


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155,000

160,000

165,000

170,000

175,000

180,000

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

11,800

6.6%

5


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155,000

160,000

165,000

170,000

175,000

180,000

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

+7,500

+4.5%

6


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TotalEmployment:AnnualChange

8%

6%

4%

2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Asheville

7


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8%

6%

4%

2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Asheville

UnitedStates

8


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8%

6%

4%

2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Asheville

UnitedStates

NorthCarolina

9


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BuncombeCountyTopJobGainersbyIndustry2007=0

RetailTrade(+589

jobs,

+4%)

Professional &Tech

Services(+285

jobs,

+6%)

HealthCare(+2,102

jobs,+10%)

Lodging&Food

Services(+533jobs,

+4%)

PublicAdministration

(+395jobs,+7%)

(500)

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Recession

10


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BuncombeCountyTopJobLosersbyIndustry2007=0

Construction(2,596

jobs,37%)

Manufacturing

(1,437jobs,12%)

Administrative

Services(833jobs,

11%)

EducationalServices

(255jobs,3%)

(3,000)

(2,500)

(2,000)

(1,500)

(1,000)

(500)

0

500

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Recession

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BuncombeCountyEmploymentChangeByGender2007=0

Female

(6,698jobs,9%)

Male

(8,943jobs,13%)

(12,000)

(10,000)

(8,000)

(6,000)

(4,000)

(2,000)

0

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Recession

12


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BuncombeCountyEmploymentByGender2007

20%

78%

80%

22%

Construction

HealthCare

Female Male

13


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BuncombeCountyTotalEmploymentByGender

Female

Male

50,000

55,000

60,000

65,000

70,000

75,000

1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011

14


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BlackorAfrican

AmericanAlone

(1,906jobs,15%)

WhiteAlone

(12,664jobs,10%)

(14,000)

(12,000)

(10,000)

(8,000)

(6,000)

(4,000)

(2,000)

0

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Recession

BuncombeCountyEmploymentChangeByRace2007=0

15


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BuncombeCountyEmploymentChangeByRace2007=0

16

AmericanIndianor

AlaskaNative

(187jobs,19%)

AsianAlone

(471jobs,16%)

MorethanOneRace

(371jobs,18%)

NativeHawaiianor

OtherPacificIslander

Alone

(43

jobs,

14%)

(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

0

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Recession


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BuncombeCountyEmploymentChangeByEthnicity2007=0

17

Hispanic

(1,145jobs,15%)

NotHispanic

(14,487jobs,11%)

(16,000)

(14,000)

(12,000)

(10,000)

(8,000)

(6,000)

(4,000)

(2,000)

0

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Recession


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BuncombeCountyEmploymentChangeByEducation2007=0

Bachelordegreeor

above

(1,249jobs,4.6%)

Highschooldegree

(3,128jobs,8.2%)

Lessthan

high

school

(928jobs,6.1%)

Somecollegeor

associatedegree

(2,622jobs,6.8%)

(4,000)

(3,500)

(3,000)

(2,500)

(2,000)

(1,500)

(1,000)

(500)

0

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Recession

18


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BuncombeCountyEmploymentChangeByAge2007=0

2534

(2,544jobs,8%)

3544

(3,524jobs,11%)

4554

(2,895jobs,10%)

5564

(+956jobs,+5%)

65+

(+79jobs,

+1%)

1424

(7,714jobs,30%)(8,000)

(7,000)

(6,000)

(5,000)

(4,000)

(3,000)

(2,000)

(1,000)

0

1,000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Recession

19


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BuncombeCountyTotalEmploymentByAge

2534

35444554

5564

65+

1424

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011

20


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BuncombeCountyPovertyRates

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

18.0

20.0

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011

PovertyRate(%)

PersonsinPoverty

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PovertyRate(%)Comparison

NorthCarolina

UnitedStates

Buncombe

11.0

12.0

13.0

14.0

15.0

16.0

17.0

18.0

19.0

1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011

22


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BuncombeCountySourcesofPopulationChange

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Natural Domestic International

23


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AnnualPopulationGrowthRates

UnitedStates

NorthCarolina

Buncombe

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

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AverageWagePerJob

$37,229

$43,107

$48,301

$0

$10,000

$20,000

$30,000

$40,000

$50,000

$60,000

Buncombe NorthCarolina UnitedStates

25


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10YChangeinAverageWagePerJob(inflationadjusted)

UnitedStates

NorthCarolina

Buncombe

($500)

$0

$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

$2,500

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

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PerCapitaIncome

$34,467$36,028

$41,560

$0

$5,000

$10,000

$15,000

$20,000

$25,000

$30,000

$35,000

$40,000

$45,000

Buncombe NorthCarolina UnitedStates

27


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10YChangeinPerCapitaIncome(inflationadjusted)

UnitedStates

NorthCarolina

Buncombe

($1,500)

($1,000)

($500)

$0

$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

$2,500

$3,000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

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BuncombeCountyChangesinComponentsofIncome

29

62% 60%55%

23% 23%

21%

15% 17%

23%

1991 2001 2011

PersonalGovernment

Transfers

InvestmentIncome

Earning&Wages


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30

10YChangeinBuncombeIncome(inflationadjusted)

Earnings&Wages

InvestmentIncome

Personal

Government

Transfers

($200,000)

($100,000)

$0

$100,000

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

$600,000

2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011

$Thousands


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31

10YChangeinPersonalGovt.Transfers(inflationadjusted)

Retirementand

disabilityinsurance

benefits

Medicalbenefits

Income

maintenance

benefits

$0

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011

$Thou

sands


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32

BuncombeAgeProfile

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500


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33

BuncombeAgeProfile

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500


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34

20122022BuncombeAgeProfileNetChange

(400)

(200)

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400


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SummaryObservations

35

Wearegrowing

Therecessionended5+yearsagobut

westillhaveawaystogo

Industries

leading

growth: HealthCare

Retail

Lodging&

Food

Professional&TechnicalServices


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SummaryObservations

36

HardestHit

Construction

Manufacturing

Administrative

ServicesYoungWorkers

Men

Nonwhites

HighSchoolEducated


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SummaryObservations

37

Povertyis

at

ahistoric

high

Populationgrowthholds,althoughata

slowerpace

Wages&Incomestagnate

GovernmentTransferbenefitsexpand

One

half

future

growth

will

be

+65

year

olds


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38

Buncombe*ExistingHomeSales

*IncludesMadisonCounty

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

$0

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

$350,000

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

HomesSold AverageSalesPrice


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39

Buncombe*ExistingHomeAverageSalesPrice

Annual%ChangeByQuarter


13%12%

28%

22%21%

15%

0%

16%

9% 8%7%

3%

10%

6%

12%

2%

4%

7%

10%

1%

2%

4%

11%

6%

11%

7%

0%

1%

6%6% 6%

4%

4%

9%

2%

2%

15%

10%

5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

AverageSalesPrice


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40

Buncombe*ExistingHomesSold

Annual%ChangeByQuarter


50%

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

250%

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

HomesSold


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41

BuncombeResidentialBuildingPermits

$0

$10,000,000

$20,000,000

$30,000,000

$40,000,000

$50,000,000

$60,000,000

0

50

100

150

200

250

1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

SingleFamily MultiFamily Value


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ResidentialRealEstateSummaryObservations

42

Thenumberofexistinghomessoldhasbeenup(yearover

year)forthelastsixquarters

Averagepricesofexistinghomessoldisdowninthefinal

quarterof2012by2%,butwasupinthethreepreceding

quarters

2012residentialpermitsdominatedbysinglefamilyunits

2012singlefamilypermitsgreaterthanin2011or2010

Totalpermitactivitystillwaybelowpast(47%below2008

value,40%below2008units)


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Sources

43

USBureauofLaborStatistics:Slide2

NorthCarolinaEmploymentSecurityCommission:Slides39

USCensusBureau:Slides1024,41

USBureauofEconomicAnalysis:Slides2531

NorthCarolinaOfficeofStateBudgetandManagement:Slides3234

NorthCarolinaAssociationofRealtors:Slides3840


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ContactInformation:

TomTveidt

SYNEVAEconomics

[email protected]

www.syneva.com

828.734.5021

Buncombe County Economic Overview by SYNEVA

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