BullionWeeklyTech-181212.pdf

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Technical Analysis Research

Axel Rudolph

+44 207 475 [email protected]

Technical OutlookBullion Weekly Technicals

Tuesday, 18 December 2012


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18 December 2012 1

Technical Outlook

Market Short term view (1-3 weeks)

Gold: The 1672.50/1661.64 support zone is key for the medium term trend. Gold is bullish while above it.

Silver: Is expected to remain above its 30.63 November low.

Gold/Silver Ratio: A reversal higher is being seen with the 53.00 region being back in play.

Palladium: Still flirts with the 705.25 September high and eyes the 725.50 February peak.

Platinum: Remains within an uptrend channel and still targets the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 1655.40.

Precious metals continue their minor corrective phases but stay medium term bullish


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18 December 2012 2

Silver, Platinum, Gold and Palladium

Precious metals are consolidating into year end

Platinum +15.24%

Palladium +6.91%

Gold +8.64%

Silver +16.39%

2012 performance to date


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18 December 2012 3

Gold - Daily Chart

Gold Daily Chart

The 1672.50/1661.64 support zone is key for the medium term trend

On Monday the gold price again held above the currentDecember low at 1684.02.

While it stays above the next lower November low at

1672.50, the 200 day moving average at 1662.10 and the50% retracement of the May-to-October rise at 1661.64,our medium term bullish picture will be valid.

Immediate upside targets are still seen between the 55 daymoving average at 1726.51 and the three month resistanceline at 1734.57. Further up lurks the 1754.75 Novemberhigh.

Still further up the 11 October high at 1775.21 and thepsychological 1800 level are to be found. The latter regionis where the gold price stalled on three separate occasionsin the past year and as such acts as strong resistance.

Failure at 1672.50/1661.64 would push the J une high at1641.01 back to the fore and neutralise our bullish outlook.

Support Resistance 1-Week View 1-Month View

1687.6/1684.0 1723.6/1726.5

1672.5/1661.64 1734.6&1754.7

Good support is seen at 1672.50/1661.64


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18 December 2012 4

Gold Weekly Chart

Continues to oscillate around the 1700 level

Gold - Weekly Chart

Has been trading around the 1700 mark for the past three weeks


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Silver - Daily Chart

Silver Daily Chart

Is expected to remain above its 30.63 November low

Silvers minor consolidation phase is ongoing but it maywell end in the 32.03/31.48 support area. This consists ofthe mid-November and October lows.

Should it not hold as expected, the next lower 30.84/63support zone should do so. This is where the 200 daymoving average and the November trough can be found.

While the latter underpins, medium term upside pressureshould be maintained, meaning that the three monthresistance line at 34.12 and the 34.43 November peakremain in the firing line.

Should 34.43 be bettered, the October peak at 35.47 willbe in the sight again and then the minor psychological36.00 level as well.

Unexpected failure at 30.63 would void our bullish view andpush the J une peak at 29.94 back to the fore.


32.03&31.48 32.95&33.55

30.84/63&29.94 33.83&34.12

November low is at 30.63


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18 December 2012 6

Silver - Weekly Chart

Silver Weekly Chart

Is heading back up towards the 2011-12 resistance line at 33.87

2011-12 resistance line is at 33.87


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18 December 2012 7

Gold/Silver Ratio - Daily Chart

Gold/Silver Ratio Daily Chart

A reversal higher is being seen with the 53.00 region being back in play

The gold/silver ratios descent to 50.36 was followed by atrend reversal which has so far taken it back to 52.51.

Next up the 53.01 mid-October high and the 53.10 mid-

November high are to be found.

If bettered, the 200 day moving average at 54.08 and theNovember peak at 54.19 will be back in the picture as well.

Minor support comes in around the 55 day moving averageat 52.40 and then at 52.20/51.97. This is where the mid-and late September highs and the early October high weremade.

While the ratio stays above the 51.10 December 12 low,immediate upside pressure should be maintained.


52.20/51.97 53.01/10

51.10&50.36/29 54.08/19

55 day moving average is seen at 52.40


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18 December 2012 8

Palladium - Daily Chart

Palladium Daily Chart

Still flirts with the 705.25 September high and eyes the 725.50 February peak


680.00/673.00 705.25/725.50

660.43&647.50 748.00/750.00

Palladium has been trying to rise above the 705.25September high for the past week or so but so far to noavail. Having said that, while trading above last weeks lowat 680.00, immediate upside momentum will remain.

Between the 705.25 September high and the 725.50February peak the precious metal may well run out ofsteam again, though. Should this not be the case, the 750region will be back in play in the first quarter of 2013.Above it lurks the psychological 800 level.

Our short term bullish outlook will remain valid as long aspalladium stays above the current 673.00 December low.

Only an unexpected drop to and daily close below the647.50 late November low would make us question ourmedium term bullish outlook, however.

September high is at 705.25


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18 December 2012 9

Palladium - Weekly Chart

Continues to trade around the psychological 700 markPalladium Weekly Chart

2012 high is at 725.50


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18 December 2012 10

Platinum - Daily Chart

Platinum Daily Chart

Still targets the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 1655.40

Platinum remains within its one month uptrend channel butfinds it difficult to overcome the November high at 1628.

We will stay short term bullish, though, while the precious

metal remains above the 1567.00 current December low.

Unexpected failure here would again sideline our view withthe 200 day moving average at 1543.17 and the Octoberand November lows at 1528.00/1525.00 then being back infocus. This is not our preferred scenario, however.

Instead we expect the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of theOctober decline at 1655.40 and probably also the 1679.00mid-October high to be reached by the end of J anuary2013.

Further up sit the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement at 1690.85

and the psychological 1700 mark.


1599.0&1585.4 1651.0/1655.4

1567.0&1543.2 1679.0&1700.0

61.8% Fibonacciretracement is at 1655.40


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18 December 2012 11

Platinum - Weekly Chart

Remains above the psychological 1600 levelPlatinum Weekly Chart

200 week moving average is seen at 1549.62


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18 December 2012 12

Other technical analysis reports we publish are:

Monday: Daily Market Technicals (FX), Strategic Technical Themes, FX Emerging Markets Technicals;

Tuesday: Daily Market Technicals (FX);

Wednesday: Daily Market Technicals (FX), Commodity Weekly, Commodity Currencies Weekly Technicals;

Thursday: Daily Market Technicals (FX), Asian Currencies Weekly Technicals, FX Strategy;

Friday: Daily Market Technicals (FX), Fixed Income Weekly Technicals.


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18 December 2012 15

Karen JonesHead of FICC Technical Analysis

Tel. +44 207 475 1425

Mail [email protected]

ZentraleKaiserplatzFrankfurt am Main

www.commerzbank.de

Postfachanschrift60261 Frankfurt am Main

Tel. +49 (0)69 / 136-20Mail [email protected]

Axel RudolphSenior Technical Analyst

Tel. +44 207 475 5721

Mail [email protected]

BullionWeeklyTech-181212.pdf

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