Bullion Commodity Reports for the Week (16th - 20th May '11)
Transcript of Bullion Commodity Reports for the Week (16th - 20th May '11)
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W E E K L Y
PRECIOUS METTLES WEAKENS ON
CHINA'S INTEREST RATES !
Globa l Resear ch L im i t ed
1 6 t h M a y - 2 1 s t M a y 2 0 1 1
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Economic Data
Tentative
6:00pm
Treasury Currency Report
Building Permits
USD
USD
Tue May 17
0.59M
Date Time Currency Economic Data Forecast Previous
Mon May 16
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Commodity
CAPITALVIA GLOBAL RESEARCH LIMITED
6:00pm Empire State Manufacturing Index USD 20.7
17
0.59M
0.58M
77.7%
21.7
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6:30pm Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks USD
6:30pm TIC Long-Term Purchases USD 26.9B57.7B
7:30pm NAHB Housing Market Index USD 16
6:00pm Housing Starts USD
6:45pm Capacity Utilization Rate USD 77.4%
0.55M
0.5%
5.22M
421K
6:45pm Industrial Production m/m USD 0.8%
5.10M
434K
17th-22nd Mortgage Delinquencies USD 8.22%
8:00pm
11:30pmCrude Oil Inventories
FOMC Meeting Minutes
USD
USD
Wed May 18
3.8M
6:00pm
7:30pm
Unemployment Claims
Existing Home Sales
USD
USD
Thu May 19
20.3 18.57:30pm Philly Fed Manufacturing Index USD
0.2% 0.4%7:30pm CB Leading Index m/m USD
70B8:00pm Natural Gas Storage USD
11:00pm FOMC Member Evans Speaks USD
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Fundamental Market Overview
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Gold fell on Friday, sharply reversing early gains, as a dollar surge against the euro and renewed uncertainty about euro zone debt prompted investors to
sell ahead of the weekend. Silver continued to recover from last week's 25 percent correction, and technical charts suggested the metal could stabilize
after bouncing off a key support level. Spot Gold fell 0.7 percent to $1,492.50 an ounce by, having earlier risen as high as $1,516.40. U.S. Gold futures for
June delivery settled down $13.20 at $1,493.60, after trading in a range from $1,482 to $1,516.40. For the week, Gold was flat after shedding nearly 5
percent last week during a commodity rout. Money managers cut bullish bets in COMEX Silver futures and options to the lowest level since January, as prices tumbled as much as 30 percent from a
record high near $50 an ounce, and they also slashed net longs in Gold during the period, U.S. regulator data showed. Gold was pressured as the U.S.
dollar scaled six-week peaks against the euro as concerns about the global economy spurred a return to the greenback's safety. Precious metals have
been pressured by worries about dollar strength, ahead of a meeting of Euro group finance ministers, followed by an Ecofin meeting of EU financeministers on Monday, which could provide further direction to the euro. The single currency is likely to remain under pressure until at least after investors
digest any outcome.
SILVER FINDS CHART SUPPORTSilver was up 1.2 percent at $34.62 an ounce. It still lost about 1.5 percent for the week after notching its worst weekly performance since 1980 last week.
Silver had lost as much as 30 percent from its record high of $49.51 an ounce set on April 28. Silver was still up 13 percent this year, and it was also the
top performer in the commodity complex with a 90 percent gain in 2010. The largest Silver ETF, the iShares Silver Trust, reported its holdings slipped
another 24.3 tonnes on Thursday. Although Silver is outperforming other precious metals on Friday, it is expected to suffer further losses.
GOLD DROPS 1 PCT ON DOLLAR SURGE, SILVER UP
NYMEX-CRUDE SKIDS FIFTH DAY, POSTS RECORD WEEKLY LOSS
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U.S. Crude oil futures slumped for a fifth day on Friday, ending with the biggest weekly loss in dollar terms since oil trading began on the New York
Mercantile Exchange in 1983, as a stronger dollar prompted investors to continue trimming oil bets. The extended sell-off in an extremely volatile day
snuffed out gains made after early data showed U.S. companies created jobs at the fastest pace in five years last month. However, the unemployment raterose to 9 percent, from 8.8 percent, up for the first time in five months. Oil demand worries continued to pressure the market, after recent data showed a
slowdown in quarterly economic growth and government data midweek which showed gasoline demand down 1.9 percent from a year ago.
FUNDAMENTALS
On the New York Mercantile Exchange, Crude for June delivery settled at $97.18 a barrel, down $2.62, or 2.63 percent, after trading from $94.63 to
$102.38. For the week, front-month Crude ended down $16.75, or 14.70 percent, the biggest ever drop for a week in dollar terms. In percentage terms,
the week's loss was the biggest since the week to Dec. 19, 2008, when price fell 26.8 percent.
UPCOMING DATA/EVENTS
U.S. Energy Information Administration's weekly inventory data, Wednesday, 10:30 a.m. EDT (1430 GMT)
COPPER RIDES WAVE OF ECON CONFIDENCE TO FIRM CLOSE
Copper finished firm on Friday, reacting to upbeat data from the United States and Europe that helped restore some market confidence and economic
recovery optimism. Still, it was an extremely volatile week for the industrial metal, with prices plumbing five-month lows, as investors moved back and
forth between 'risk-on' and 'risk-off' trades due to lingering concerns about subdued Chinese demand patterns, a resurgent dollar, and the increasingly
violent swings in markets like Silver and Crude oil. "Copper has benefited from the very positive data, but unfortunately it is going to be susceptible to
further downside risk based on further liquidation of the short-dollar, long commodity trade." London Metal Exchange (LME) Copper for three-month
delivery closed up $65 at $8,790 a tonne. Despite the positive finish, prices shed over 5 percent on the week for a second-straight weekly decline.In New York, the July COMEX Copper contract rose 1.30 cents to settle at $3.9835 per lb, but remained pinned beneath its 200-day moving average at
around $4.01. With prices under pressure, open interest in COMEX Copper continued to erode from its January peak, falling nearly 30 percent to its
lowest since October 2009.A stronger U.S. dollar makes commodities such as metals more expensive for holders of other currencies. Even with this week's increased market
volatility, Europe's No.2 Copper producer, , expects Copper prices to average $8,000-$9,000 per tonne this year.
DEMAND SIGNALS
Copper demand from China is likely to remain strong despite the country's moves to slow growth to control inflation, the CEO of top European Copper
producer said. China hiked its bank reserve requirement ratio yet again on Thursday, signaling that containing inflation and soaking up excess cash
remained its top priority even after signs the economy was slowing down.Stocks of Copper in LME warehouses rose 800 tonnes to 468,525 tonnes, nearly 35 percent above levels seen early in December, latest data showed.
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GOLD
COMEX Gold is in an upward phase. Last week COMEX Gold neither sustain on higher level
nor at lower level. In the coming week 1445$ will act as a major support in COMEX Gold, if COMEX Gold sustains above 1520 $ an ounce then above 1528 $ an ounce it can touch the
level of 1542$ an ounce and if COMEX Gold sustains below 1460$ then it can slightly
correct and test the level of 1440$ an ounce.
Market Overview
For the next week traders can use buy on lower level strategy if COMEX Gold sustains above
1520 $ an ounce, then above 1528$ it can test the level of 1542 $ an ounce and above
1550$ it can further move upward. Trade by keeping the strict stop losses. Major support for COMEX Gold in the coming week is 1450$ and 1410$. Major resistance for COMEX Gold in the coming week is 1580$ and 1625$ Major support in MCX Gold is 21600 and 21200 Major resistance in MCX Gold is 22450 and 23050
Strategy
SILVER
COMEX Silver is technically weak on charts. Last week COMEX Silver c neither sustain onhigher level nor at lower level. For the upcoming week 3200$ and 3000$ are the crucial
supports and 4000$ and 4250 $ are crucial resistance in COMEX Silver. In MCX Silver
61000 and 64000 will act as major resistance and 49000 and 46000 will act as major
supports.
Market Overview
Technically COMEX Silver is weak on charts, For the next week traders can use buy on lower
level strategy if Silver sustains above the level of 3200$ an ounce, then above 3700$ an
ounce it can further go upward and can test the level of 3850$ an ounce. Trade by keeping
the proper stop losses.
Strategy
1597 1548 1521 1499 1450 1400
R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3
1280
Script
Levels
4993 4276 3888 3559 3171 2842
R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3
2125
Script
Levels
Technical Analysis
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CRUDE OIL
NYMEX Crude is in upward phase. Last week Crude oil neither sustain on higher level nor
at lower level. For the coming week 94$ and 88$ will act as major supports and 106.50 $and 109.50$ a barrel will be a major resistance in NYMEX Crude. In MCX Crude Oil major
resistance is found at 4700 and 5000 and major supports will be 4200 and 4000.
Market Overview
For the next week traders can use buy on lower level strategy, if NYMEX Crude sustains
above the level of 94 $ a barrel then above 102.5$ it can slightly come up and touch the
level of 105 $ a barrel and in MCX above 4600 Crude oil can touch the level of 4700 if it
sustains above 4200. Trade by keeping the proper stop loss.
Strategy
COPPER
Copper is in a consolidation phase and traders should use the strategy of buy on lowerlevels. Last week COMEX Copper was down for most part of week and on the last two days
it bounced back. If next week COMEX Copper sustains above the level of 390 then above
the level of 406 Copper can test the level of 412. In MCX Copper above 405 Copper can test
the level of 412 if it does not break the level of 390 on the downside
Market Overview
For the upcoming week 435 and 437 will act as major resistance and 380 and 370 will act as
major supports in COMEX Copper. For MCX Copper major resistance would be 425 and 437
and supports would be found at 380 and 360.
Strategy
118 109 104 99 95 90
R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3
81
Script
Levels
443.50 420.40 409.40 397.40 386.30 374.30
R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3
351.20
Script
Levels
Technical Analysis
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NATURAL GAS
Natural Gas is in a consolidation phase and traders should use the strategy of selling on
higher levels. Last week Natural Gas was down for most part of the week. If next week Natural Gas sustains above the level of 4.300 $ then above the level of 4.350$ Natural Gas
can test the level of 4.450 $ and below 4.100 $ Natural Gas can slightly go down and test
the level of 3.900 $. In MCX, if Natural Gas sustains above 190 in the coming week then it
can test the level of 197, if it does not break the level of 183 on the downside.
Market Overview
For the upcoming week 4.050$ and 3.650 $ will act as major supports and 4.880$ and
5.200$ will act as major resistance in US Natural Gas. For MCX Natural Gas major resistance
would be 210 and 220, supports would be found at 183 and 172.
Strategy
USD / INR
USD/INR is consolidating on charts so traders can use the strategy of buying on lowerlevels. If next week USD/INR sustains above the level of 44.4000 then above the level of
45.0500 USD/INR can test the level of 45.2500 and below 43.8000 USD/INR can slightly go
down and test the level of 43.6000.
Market Overview
For the upcoming week 43.8000 and 43.5000 will act as major supports and 45.4000 and
46.0000 will act as major resistance in USD/INR.
Strategy
4.593 4.405 4.326 4.217 4.138 4.029
R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3
3.841
Script
Levels
45.8200 45.3200 45.0900 44.8200 44.5900 44.3200
R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3
43.8200
Script
Levels
Technical Analysis
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WEEKLY GAINERS INTERNATIONAL MARKET UPDATE WEEKLY
GOLD 1493.6 0.13
SILVER 3501.3 -0.78
COPPER 398.35 0.20
CRUDE 99.65 2.54
NATURAL GAS 4.246 0.26
USD/INR 44.86 0.31
Commodity Expiry Date Closing Price % Change Commodity Closing Price % Change
WEEKLY LOOSERS
SILVER 05 –JUL - 11 53716 -2.19
Commodity Expiry Date Closing Price % Change
Gold MCX 4-JUN -11 Gold Rs./ 10gm 21880 21930 2171022280 21961 181787 11949 3953464.3481
Silver MCX 5-JUL -11 Silver RS./ KG. 54919 55305 4975159976 53716 645036 13094 10582649.21-1203
Copper MCX 19-MAY -11 Copper RS./ KG. 399.9 400.9 386.8408.3 401.6 544684 22214 2162344.351.7
Crude Oil MCX 19-MAY -11 Crude Oil RS./ BBL. 4416 4420 42924674 4467 923871 9244 4129080.9951
Natural Gas MCX 25-MAY -11 Natural Gas RS./ MM BTU 192.6 192.5 185.6193.4 191.4 78502 3748 183474.23-1.2
Lead MCX 31-MAY -11 Lead RS./ KG. 104.75 105.75 100.5106.75 103.9 76683 3886 396430.35-0.85
Zinc MCX 31-MAY -11 Zinc RS./ KG. 96.8 97.4 93.6598.85 97.8 94276 7521 453473.671
Aluminum MCX 31-MAY -11 Aluminium RS./ KG. 116.7 117.3 115118.85 116.15 22413 -0.55 2825 130556.56
Nickel MCX 31-MAY -11 Nickel RS./ KG. 1110.9 1115 1073.51127.4 1108 231139 5610 636258.74-2.9
SymbolExch-ange
ExpiryDate
CommodityName
Price UnitPreviousClose
Open LowHigh CloseQty.Traded
NetOpen
Interest
WeeklyTurnOver
(Rs. in Lakhs)
CRUDE OIL 19 –MAY-11 4467 1.16
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*
* Turnover Till Friday
ZINC 31 –MAY-11 97.80 1.03
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COPPER 30 –JUN-11 401.60 0.43
LEAD 31 –MAY-11 103.90 -0.81
NATURAL GAS 25 –MAY-11 191.40 -0.62
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Gold
Silver
Copper
Crude Oil
Natural Gas
Lead
Zinc
Aluminum
Nickel
Scripts R3 R2 PP S1 S2 S3
23124.33
74931.67
441.87
5240.33
205.73
116.20
107.13
1210.73
124.35
22554.33
64706.67
420.37
4858.33
197.93
109.95
101.93
1156.83
120.50
21984.33
54481.67
398.87
4476.33
190.13
103.70
96.73
1102.93
116.65
21688.67
48987.33
389.43
4278.67
186.87
100.65
94.62
1078.47
114.45
21414.33
44256.67
418.97
4094.33
182.33
97.45
91.53
1049.03
112.80
20844.33
34031.67
355.87
3712.33
174.53
91.20
86.33
995.13
108.95
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