Building resilience in social-ecological systems to deal withchallenges in an increasingly

uncertain world

Claudia Pahl-WostlProfessor for Resource Management

Director Institute of Environmental Systems ResearchUniversity of Osnabrück, Germany

Senior Research Scholar, Stockholm Resilience CentreResearch Associate IIASA

Themes

Resilience – evolution of the concept

Framework for social learning / societal change

Experience from water management

Role of social networks

Some reflections

Resilience –Evolution of Concept

Resilience is the capacity of an ecosystem (time required) to return to an equilibrium or steady-state following a perturbation (Holling, 1973).

The capacity of a system to absorb disturbance and reorganize while undergoing change so as to still retain essentially the same function, structure, identity, and feedbacks (Walker et al, 2004)

The capacity of a system to absorb disturbance and reorganize while undergoing change so as to still retain essentially the same function, structure and feedbacks, and therefore identity, that is, the capacity to change in order to maintain the same identity (Folke et al, 2010)

Adaptability –Transformability

Adaptability captures the capacity of a SES to learn, combine experience and knowledge, adjust its responses to changing external drivers and internal processes, and continue developing within the current stability domain or basin of attraction (Folke et al, 2010)

Transformability captures the capacity to transform the stability landscape itself in order to become a different kind of system, to create a fundamentally new system when ecological, economic, or social structures make the existing system untenable (Folke et al, 2010)

Adaptive capacity is defined as the ability of a resource governance system to first alter processes and if required convert structural elements as response to experienced or expected changes in the societal or natural environment (Pahl-Wostl, 2009)

Resilience is linked to the ability of a system to adapt, to learn from

disturbance and if needed to transform in the long-term and build resilience of a

new system configuration

Framework for social andsocietal learning

Context

Governance structureActors & Institutions

Natural environmentTechnologies

,

Process

Social/relational Issues

Problem/taskIssues

Relational Practices

OutcomesRelational qualities

Social Capital

Technical qualities

Feedback

A Relational Concept for Social Learning

Problem Framing

BoundaryManagement

Ground rules

Leadership

Pahl-Wostl et al, 2007

Centralization of Power <-> Polycentricity

Information Management

Formal Institutions (degree of rigidity)Societal

Learning

An evolutionary perspective on societal change

Context Frames Actions Outcomes

Single-Loop LearningIncremental improvement of

established routines

Double-Loop LearningReframing

Triple-Loop Learning

Transforming

Context Frames Actions Outcomes

Single-Loop LearningIncremental improvement of

established routines

Double-Loop LearningReframing

Triple-Loop Learning

Transforming

Need dike height to be increased by 10

or 20 cm?

Which laws need to be changed?

Change in practices -paradigm shift in education?

Pahl-Wostl, 2009

Is present flood protection practice sustainable?

How can one increase the resilience of landscapes / regions?

Change along different dimensions

Single Loop Double Loop Triple Loop

Institutions -general

No calling into question of established institutions,

unilateral reinterpretation

Reinterpretation of established institutions by many parties

Established institutions changed and/or new institutions implemented.

Uncertainty and risk management

Uncertainty used to justify non-action.

Activities to reduce uncertainties.

Reliance on science to find the truth/ a solution.

Uncertainty accepted and perceived as opportunity in processes of negotiations - reframing

Existence of different perspectives and world views acknowledged

Uncertainty discourse emphasises different perspectives and world views

New approaches to manage uncertainty and risk implemented

Actor Network

Actors remain within their networks –communities of practice

Established roles and identities not called into question

Explicit search for advise/ opinion from actors outside of established network

New roles emerge

Boundary spanners of increasing importance

Changes in network boundaries and connections

New actors groups and roles have become established

Changes in power structure

Pahl-Wostl, 2009

Unsustainable water management:Increasing human water security results in

reduced resilience of social-ecologicalsystems

Normal

Variability

Technical Precautions

x1

Climate variable (e.g. precipitation)

Freq

uenc

y

Extremes (un-adapted)

Extremes (un-adapted)

Drought Risk

Flood Risk

“Acceptable” risk threshold

“Acceptable” risk threshold

Managing Extremes

DAMAGE

Reduce small-scale disturbance but increase the likelihood of desaster

Reduce ability to adaptand transform

The role of multi-level societal learning processes to facilitate transformative change in flood

management

Change of floodmanagement paradigm

Currently dominating„Controlling water“

New approach„Living with water“

Risiks are quantified and optimal technical solutions are implemented

Participatory risk evaluation and negotiation about integrated

solutions

Large-scale technical infrastructure (reservoirs, dams)

Multi-functional landscape withflooding areas combining

ecosystem service approach andtechnical infrastructure

Road

River

Rhone - Switzerland

Athabasca - Canada

Current situation…..

Current state with regulated and controlled rivers

Adaptive management with a multi‐functional dynamic landscape

Stakeholdergroupsand theirroles

Authorities as regulators in highly controlled environment

Engineers construct & operate dams, reservoirs and levees

House owners living in floodplains

Agriculture using land in vicinity of rivers

Authorities as contributors to adaptive management process with shared responsibilities

Engineers with skills in systems design 

House owners with property in floodplain at higher flooding risk   

Tourism industry and tourists using the floodplains for recreation

Conflict – changes in roles, power….

Pahl-Wostl, 2006

2009

2010

Local Opposition –AdvocacyCoalitions

Social solidarity in catastrophic situations

Muliti-level process representation

Multi-level representation Hungarian Tisza

Tisza HU Rhine NL Rhine DInformal learning process

Driven by informal bottom-up process, shadow network led by NGOs developing around shared mission.

Expert communities with actors from government, NGOs, science, and business develop alternative approaches.

Ad hoc Advocacy Coalitions.

Expert communities with actors from science and government develop alternative approaches.

Ad hoc Advocacy Coalitions

Knowledge integration in actor networks

Effective integration of expert and traditional, local ecological knowledge in shadow network.

Knowledge integration in the expert community – ecological expert knowledge.

Knowledge integration in the expert community – ecological expert knowledge.

Pahl-Wostl et al, in press

How multi-level societal learning processes facilitate transformative change

A comparative case study analysis on flood management

What supports change – insights from different studies

Moving from discourse to structural transformation depends on effectiveness of links between informal settings and formal policy processes.

Informal spaces and diverse actor networks important to support integration of knowledge and experimentation with innovative approaches.

Connections between learning and policy processes that hinge on individual actors are fragile if innovative approaches are not codified in formal institutions and widely shared practices.

Polycentricity - balance between decentralization and coordination to avoid both fragmentation and rigid central control

Catastrophic events are windows of opportunity for change

Some reflections on polycentricity and informal

spaces

Governance Regime Architecture

Poly- centric

Centralized Fragmented

Fully connected

Distribution of power with effective vertical and

horizontal coordination

Polycentric Fragmented CentralizedDistribution of formal

power High High Low

Multi-level distribution of functions and resources High High Low

Coordination vertical High Low LowCoordination horizontal High Low Low

Typical cases Netherlands India Uzbekistan

Governance Regime -Ideal Types

Relationship between formal andinformal institutions - networks

CompetingAccomodatingConflicting Goals

SubstitutiveComplementary Compatible Goals

Ineffective formal institutions

Effective formal institutions

CompetingAccomodatingConflicting Goals

SubstitutiveComplementary Compatible Goals

Ineffective formal institutions

Effective formal institutions

Concluding reflections

Features enhancing resilience of social-ecological systems

Polycentric modular structures

Diversity and redundancy

Synergistic relationship between formal and informal institutions

(Emergent) leadership

Integration of different kinds of knowledge

Social capital and trust

Features enhancing resilience of social-ecological systems

Role of social networks as mediating tension between change and stability

Networks can combine

Cohesion enhancing social capital, trust with openness allowing new actors to enter

Bottom up and top-down pathways of influence

Formal arrangements and informal settings

Defined pathways of steering (established order) withemergent leadership (self-organization)

More information available….

Pahl-Wostl, C. 2006. The importance of social learning in restoring the multifunctionality of rivers and floodplains. Ecology and Society 11(1): 10.

Pahl-Wostl C (2009) A conceptual framework for analysing adaptive capacity and multi-level learning processes in resource governance regimes. Global Environmental Change, 19: 354-365.

Pahl-Wostl C et al (2007) Social learning and water resources management. Ecology and Society 12(2): 5.

Pahl-Wostl, C. et al (2010) Analysing complex water governance regimes: The Management and Transition Framework. Environ. Sci. & Policy, 13:571-581.

Pahl-Wostl,C. et al (2011) Maturing the new water management paradigm: progressing from aspiration to practice. Water Res. Management, 25:837-856.

Pahl-Wostl, C. et al. (2012). From simplistic panaceas to mastering complexity: Towards adaptive governance in river basins. Environ. Sci. & Policy, 23:24-34.

Discussion Time!