Building blocks: the market for goods and services and ... · Another important macroeconomic...
Transcript of Building blocks: the market for goods and services and ... · Another important macroeconomic...
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Building blocks: the market for goods and services and comparative statics
Chapter 2
Economics of Global Business, 1st Edition, MIT Press Copyright © Rodrigo Zeidan 2018
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Chapter 2.1 The market for goods
and services
Economics of Global Business, 1st Edition, MIT Press Copyright © Rodrigo Zeidan 2018
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What is the market for Goods and Services?
- GDP emerges from the interaction between demand and supply.
AD
AS
Price level
GDP
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What is the market for Goods and Services?
- GDP emerges from the interaction between demand and supply.
AD
AS
Price level
GDP
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What is the market for Goods and Services?
- GDP emerges from the interaction between demand and supply.
AD
AS
Price level
GDPGDP
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What is the market for Goods and Services?
- Inflation (changes in price level) also comes from AD and AS
interactions.
AD
AS
Price level
GDPGDP
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What is the market for Goods and Services?
- Inflation (changes in price level) also comes from AD and AS
interactions.
AD
AS
Price level
GDPGDP
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What is the market for Goods and Services?
- Inflation (changes in price level) also comes from AD and AS
interactions.
AD
AS
Price level
GDPGDP
PriceLevel
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Chapter 2.2 Comparative Statics
Economics of Global Business, 1st Edition, MIT Press Copyright © Rodrigo Zeidan 2018
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What is the market for Goods and Services?
- Representation of consumption and production of all goods and
services in a country.
AD
AS
Price level
GDP
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What is the market for Goods and Services?
- Aggregate demand represents all the goods and services consumed by
society (government, companies and households).
- Aggregate supply is comprised of the whole production capacity of
society.
AD
ASPrice level
GDP
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Comparative Statics: Overview
- Step 1: Describe the Initial Equilibrium.
AD
AS
Price level
GDPGDP
PriceLevel
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Comparative Statics: Overview
- Step 2: Apply economic shock (here, lower demand, AD to AD’).
AD
AS
Price level
GDPGDP
PriceLevel
AD’
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Comparative Statics: Overview
- Step 2: “old” equilibrium ceases to exist. “New” equilibrium with
lower P and GDP.
AD
AS
Price level
GDP“old” GDP
Price Level
AD’
“old” price level
GDP
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Comparative Statics: Overview
- Step 2: “New” equilibrium with lower P and GDP.
AS
Price level
GDP
Price Level
AD’
GDP
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Comparative Statics: Overview
- Step 3: Government reaction, increasing AD (AD’ to AD”).
AD”
AS
Price level
GDPGDP
PriceLevel
AD’
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Comparative Statics: Overview
- Step 3: AD’ to AD” increases prices level and GDP.
AD”
AS
Price level
GDPAD’
“New” GDP
“New” Price Level
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Comparative Statics: Overview
- Step 3: AD” is the final result: prices and GDP reflect shock and
reaction.
AD”
AS
Price level
GDPGDP
Price Level
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Comparative Statics: Things to remember
Identifying an economic shock can be difficult.
Policies ALWAYS come at some sort of cost.
Shocks can be both internal and external.
Easier to describe one shock at a time.
Distinction between shocks affecting demand or supply not always
clear.
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Four possible scenarios
- Scenario 1: positive supply shock (AS to AS’): ↑GDP with
↓Inflation.
AD
AS
Price level
GDPGDP
P
AS’
GDP’
P’
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Four possible scenarios
- Scenario 2: negative supply shock (AS to AS’). ↓GDP with
↑Inflation
AD
AS’
Price level
GDPGDP’
P’
AS
GDP
P
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Four possible scenarios
- Scenario 3: positive demand shock (AD to AD’). ↑GDP with
↑Inflation
AD
AS
Price level
GDPGDP
P’
AD’
GDP’
P
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Four possible scenarios
- Scenario 4: negative demand shock (AD to AS’). ↓GDP with
↓Inflation
AD’
AS
Price level
GDPGDP’
P
AD
GDP
P’
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The Trade Off when only AD shifts.
- If governments choose to
increase economic growth,
they run the risk of
inflation.
- If governments want to curb
inflation, they will have to
do so by reducing growth.
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The Aggregate Demand
In the closed economy model, aggregate demand is a function of the
behavior of consumers, the government, and business: AD = C + I + G.
C: consumption by households.
I: Investment by companies in expanded capacity.
G: Government expenditure.
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The Aggregate Demand
In an open economy model, aggregate demand also introduces the
balance of trade: AD = C + I + G + X – IM.
C: consumption by households.
I: Investment by companies in expanded capacity.
G: Government expenditure.
X: Exports.
IM: Imports.
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Chapter 2.3 Labor Market
Economics of Global Business, 1st Edition, MIT Press Copyright © Rodrigo Zeidan 2018
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Labor Market
Another important macroeconomic model; represents the negotiation
between individuals and companies regarding employment and wages.
In a perfectly competitive model, INVOLUNTARY employment should not
exist.
We care only about involuntary employment i.e. people who are
willing to work cannot find a job at the market wage.
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Perfectly Competitive Labor Market
Nominal Wage
Quantity of Labor (Employment)
DL
SL
w
QL=QSL=QDL
Notation:• Nominal wage = w• Quantity of Labor = QL• Labor supply = people willing to work = SL• Labor demand = how many people
companies are willing to hire = DL• Involuntary Unemployment = QSL - QDL
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Quantity of Labor (Employment)
DL
SL
w
QL=QSL=QDL
Nominal wage
Voluntary Unemployment
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Why does involuntary unemployment exist?
We start with:
Nominal wages are not fully flexible (as is the case in the
perfectly competitive labor market) due to labor laws, trade unions,
and the minimum wage.
With wages rigid in real life, a decrease in the demand for labor
would result in an increase of involuntary unemployment.
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How does involuntary unemployment emerge?
- Step 1: Let’s assume that we start with zero unemployment.
DL
SL
Nominal wage
QLQSL= QDL = QL
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How does involuntary unemployment emerge?
- Step 2: Now, there is a negative shock in Labor Demand (DL to DL’).
DL’
SL
Nominal wage
QLQSL= QDL = QL
DL
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How does involuntary unemployment emerge?
- Step 2a: If wages were flexible, then ↓w (w to w’) and ↓QL (QL to
QL’).
DL’
SL
Nominal wage
QLQDL
DL
Q’DL
ww’
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How does involuntary unemployment emerge?
- Step 2a: But when wages are rigid ( ), then ↓QDL but QSL stays the
same.
DL’
SL
Nominal wage
QLQSL
DL
Q’DL
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How does involuntary unemployment emerge?
- Step 2a: And unemployment emerges (QSL - QDL).
DL’
SL
Nominal wage
QLQSL
DL
unemployment
Q’DL
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How does involuntary unemployment emerge?
- In this framework, unemployment decreases if ↑DL.
DL
SL
Nominal wage
QLQSLQDL
unemployment
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How does involuntary unemployment emerge?
- In this framework, unemployment decreases if ↑DL.
DL’
SL
Nominal wage
QLQSL
DL
QDL Q’DL
Lower unemployment
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“People who are marginally employable suddenly become highly employable in a period like this,” said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist of RSM, a financial consulting firm
In the graph: wage rises around 2% per year (in line with inflation). Meanwhile, the unemployment rate falls steadily. Only when the economy reaches full employment, wage growth seems to pick up.
Wage rigidity in the US
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Other reasons for unemployment
Asymmetric Information: Usually individuals have more information
about their skills than companies.
Indivisible Contracting: Labor contracts are not fully renegotiable at
every single moment in time.
Searching and matching costs: Costly to match the skills of people
with the jobs requiring such skills.
Skills are often non-transferable: People who are trained in one task
may find that businesses need other skills.
All these generate unemployment even if wages are fully flexible.
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Unemployment around the world
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Unemployment around the world
As with everything in Economics, context is key.
We can see from the graph that unemployment is consistently higher in
Europe in comparison with the US.
Unemployment patterns vary from country to country, often due to
differences in labor laws.
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Unemployment around the world
In the United States, the ideal unemployment rate is 4%, while in France
it would be around 6%. Why?
One reason: labor laws.
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Labor Laws in the US
One of the major tenets of labor laws is the “employment at will”
doctrine.
US employees work at the will of companies that can lay them off at any
time without justification (with some exceptions.
Result is a dynamic labor market in which businesses are relatively free
to adjust their employment policy to the business cycle.
Minimum wages are low and contracts can be quite flexible.
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Labor Laws in France
Employer must be able to justify the termination with a real and serious
cause (“cause réelle et sérieuse”).
Judges can reverse firings, both individual and collective, if the court
does not find the economic arguments strong enough.
Minimum wage is almost €18,000 (or USD 22,000 as of February, 2018,
rates).
Labor reform in 2017 tried to make labor markets a bit more flexible.
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Comparing US vs France
Unemployment structurally lower in the US. Easier to find a job there
and for high skilled people, wages are higher. But a great number of
people who have one (or more full-time jobs) and are still poor.
In France most people with jobs are not poor. But many high-skilled
people leave the country (brain drain).
No system is “better”. There are always tradeoffs. US labor market
more dynamic, with working people a major issue. In France, labor
markets are more sclerotic, and unemployment is a major issue.
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Chapter 2.4Dynamics
Business Cycles
Economic Policies
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Business Cycle--Long-Term Trend
- Expectations of the future
play a massive role in
determining the shape of
the business cycle.
- Expansions usually last
longer than recessions.
- During periods of
industrialization,
economic growth tends to be
extremely high; as
countries become richer,
the growth rate declines.
Time
Long-Term Growth Trend
Business Cycle
Smoothed business cycle
Real GDP
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Average Lengths of U.S.A. Business Cycles, Historically
Average length (months )1886–1916 1920–1940 1948–2000
Recessions 9.7 14.0 10.7Expansions 34.0 31.6 55.9
Source: J. Bradford DeLong, “Growth Accounting,” http://j-bradford-delong.net/macro_online/growth_accounting.pdf
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Economic Indicators: Leading Vs. Lagging
Leading Indicators: Indicate
Changes in future economic
activity
● Stock Prices
● Bond Yields
● Money Supply (M2)
Lagging Indicators: Result of
past economic activity
● Unemployment Rate
● Consumer Price Index (CPI)
● Average Duration of
Unemployment
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Chapter 2.5 Introduction to
Economic Policy
Economics of Global Business, 1st Edition, MIT Press Copyright © Rodrigo Zeidan 2018
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Economic Policies
Governments usually have three tools:
- Monetary Policy (Interest rate determination).
- Fiscal policy (Taxes and government spending).
- Currency policy (Interventions in the foreign currency market).
The goals of these policies would be to smooth out the business cycle
i.e. they should be countercyclical.
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Major Goals of Economic Policy
Time
Long-Term Growth TrendBusiness Cycle
Smoothed business cycle
Direct goals of economic policy -smoothing of the business cycle and increasing long-term trend
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The Catch
- As usual, there is a tradeoff; Policymakers face uncertainty
regarding the path of the economy, and hence cannot know for sure
whether a policy will be good or bad.
- The effectiveness of economic policy is also context dependent,
which means that different policies will be suitable for different
economies.