Building a nuclear future

Recent developments

ByBill Bryce, Interim Chairman NIA

King’s College, London 27 February 2007

Recent developments

• World scene• UK - Energy gap

– Current nuclear scene– Recent and future events– New build– Resources

• The big issues

• Points for debate

World energy scene• WEC - “Fossil fuels will continue to dominate”

• Currently - Coal 40%, Gas 20%, Oil 6%

Nuclear 16%, Hydro 16%, Renewables 2%

• Stern Report (October 2006)• Coal will increase to ~50% as power demand increases• Greenhouse gases will double by 2035• Power sector needs to be > 60% decarbonised by 2050

• Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change • (February 2007) - Will it make things happen ?

Nuclear in world scene• Nuclear waste still a major issue

• but several countries are implementing solutions

• Nuclear new build • happening just about everywhere

• Finance available through different models• even for private ownership• nuclear vendors and contractors likely to carry bulk of

construction and financing risks • Scarcity of key components getting more severe

• RPV head forgings waiting list beyond 2018

World nuclear new build

Building Planned ProposedCHINA 10 13 50INDIA 8 4 15KOREA 5 7 0JAPAN 2 12 1RUSSIA 4 8 18USA 1 2 21EU 2 0 ?OTHERS 0 18 53

TOTALS 32 64 158

New reactor technology

PBMR

ACR-1000

ESBWR

AP-1000

EPR

Recent eventsJuly 2006 - Energy Review Report

- CoRWM Reports

September 2006 - Mori polls shows big rise in support for nuclear among MPs and public

October 2006 - Finland proposes 6th reactor- Government announces support for

CoRWM proposals- NDA given responsibility for Nirex - Stern report – 60% power generation

decarbonised by 2050

Recent eventsDecember 2006 - Westinghouse selected to build 4

reactors for China

January 2007 - Regulators publish their proposals for reactor pre-licensing

- Tim Stone to advise on financial provisions for new build decom

and waste

- Germany initiates rethink on nuclear

February 2007 - AREVA gets OK for 2 reactors for China - Greenpeace wins high court case

against Energy Review

Future events

April/May 2007- Government White Paper - New full consultation to start

Spring 2007 - Secondary legislation to be enacted to streamline public enquiries

- Planning White Paper to be published

July 2007 - NDA to launch consultation on site selection process for high level waste repository

UK nuclear capacity

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MWe

Sizewell B PWR AGR stations Magnox stations

Dungeness ‘A’& Sizewell ‘A’

Oldbury

Dungeness ‘B’ 10 year LE granted

Wylfa

Hinkley Pt ‘B’ & Hunterston

‘B’

Heysham 1 &

Hartlepool

Heysham 2 and

Torness

After 2023, Sizewell ‘B’ is the UK’s only operating nuclear

plant

10 year LE planned

5 year LE planned

10 year LE planned

Current UK nuclear sceneGeneration

• Sizewell A and Dungeness B closed 31/12/2006• AGR life extensions planned• Capacity reducing earlier than planned?

Clean up• NDA achieving some successes, but…• Change in sell off plans – aspirant Tier 1s re-thinking• Annualised funding and potential reductions causing

problems for supply chain • Near Term Work Plans becoming unreliable• Market experiencing competition for Tier 2, 3s

UK energy gap

• 20 to 30 GW gap to occur in 2015 • Despite popular impressions, renewables

and conservation cannot fill this

• Could be filled by gas and clean coalwith security of supply and carbon consequences

• New gas can buy time for decision on nuclear

UK new power plants activities

• Wind farms - many receiving approvals

• Clean coal - several studies underway

• CCGT stations – 2 new builds started 2006 2 more to start 2007

• Nuclear - Government recognises that it must be a significant part of the future

power mix

Low carbon – cradle to grave

Source: Parliamentary Office of Science and Technology, October 2006

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UK nuclear new build

• New build owners require CONFIDENCE:-

• in the long term carbon price and trading scheme• in the planning/licensing processes• that sites will be made available• in selection process for waste repository site• in costing for decommissioning and waste m’gment• that industry can deliver on time and within cost

Paul Golby

“I will not make investments in nuclear unless I can see a carbon framework that gives me confidence there will be a price for carbon going forward, but I am not looking for guarantees.”

“…we will look to build plants with a range of technologies, including nuclear if the right environment and framework exist.”

“We will be moving with other technologies of which nuclear is just one, but it will start to make a contribution from the middle of the decade onwards.”

UK nuclear new build

Dr Paul Golby Chief Executive E.ON, UKEvidence to Trade and Industry Committee 6 June 2006

UK nuclear new build

Vincent de Rivas

“I am confident that if we have clarity

from Government on these issues

(planning, licensing, sites, waste and

carbon) by the end of 2007, we can

have the first of the next generation of

(nuclear) power stations on stream 10

years later.”

Vincent de RivasChief Executive EdF Energy16 November 2006

UK nuclear new build

Bill Coley

"We have today launched a process to invite potential partners for new nuclear generation projects in the UK. Construction of new nuclear power stations is critical to meeting the UK's security of supply and climate change objectives.  Electricity is essential to continued economic growth, jobs and quality of life for the people of the UK today and into the future.”

Bill ColeyChief ExecutiveBritish Energy13 February 2007

Resources

• Power sector demands set to grow dramatically• Other engineering projects creating competition• Major deficiencies

• Project managers• Regulator staff (for clean up and new build licensing/safety )• Nuclear specialists (for clean up and regulators) • Trades skills

• Lack of clear plans hindering training/recruitment• Can supply be managed for short and long term?

Resources• Education and training initiatives

• Dalton Institute (Manchester University)• National Nuclear Skills Academy• Cogent• Training Boards

» Civil Industry (CITB)» Engineering Contractors (ECITB)» Science and Engineering (SEMTB)

• EnergyForesight (school programme) • New Nuclear R&D laboratory for Cumbria

The NIA study in March 2006 of the UK supply chain capability: Assumed

5 twin reactors over 20 years (maintains nuclear at 25%) international, approved designs

Concluded Much of engineering and construction work is broadly

similar to other major projects

UK nuclear supply chain could supply 70% of a new nuclear plant. With investment this could rise to 80%

Supply of resources can be managed, if started now

New build - can industry deliver ?

Resources for new build

The impact on jobs

The timings are critical

5 years for approval : 5 years to construct

Today

Pinch points for new nuclear build

• Policy framework to encourage investment

• Reactor safety and licensing resources

• Programme and project management skills

• Scarcity of specialised plant items due to world upsurge in new nuclear build:

• Large forgings

• Reactor pressure vessel manufacture

• Steam generator manufacture

• Large turbine/generator manufacture

Actions to overcome pinch points

UK Government must

• Set framework to attract investors, utilities and nuclear system vendors to the UK market

• Enable UK regulators to implement streamlined licensing/planning processes for international designs

UK Industry must• Be competitive in the global supply chain

• Invest in project management

• Decide role and invest accordingly

• Prepare to supply resources and equipment

The big issues• The White Paper

• Carbon price and trading scheme

• Nuclear waste site selection

• Public perception

• UK market - sufficiently attractive to investors and nuclear vendors ?

• Will new gas plants delay nuclear decision

Some points for debate• Does new nuclear need Government intervention to make

it happen?

• Can we effectively reduce the planning and licensing approval times ?

• Would you bank on industry delivering on time and cost ?

• Who will actually buy one ?

• What about the political scene – change of PM, change of government, influence of Lib Dems ?

• Other surprises – Greenpeace legal challenge etc ?