Build History

We calculated a Neural Network Model which is an iterative fitting optimization that identifies an optimal point between a hold out sample and the model building database.

The optimal convergence point

Model vs. Actual

Time series in broken into a trend and cyclical components. The series below is an extreme cyclical one where the peaks are generally underestimated.

Missed peaks can be corrected by adding a constant

ImpactsThis application locates the insignificant factor within our data

Since Season has a greater impact than Time, Time is the insignificant factor

Cross SectionThis determines how our target will be effected by changing the value of one factor

As the month changes, so does the trans amt.This graph is cyclical in nature and shows that throughout the summer months the trans

amt peaks

3-D Cross SectionDetermines what will happen to our target if two factors were simultaneously changed

It’s a combination of a cyclical and a trend modelThis shows that as we change time and season than we can see how the trans amt has

changed

ReasoningBy reasoning we are able to deifier all the insignificant factors throughout our data

The unexplained box shows that aprox. 30,000 effects are insignificant

Bar ChartDetermines how predictive our model is by showing our error

We can do this by finding the difference of the model chart from the actual chart

SummaryThis is the word summary of the statistical value of our data

AnomaliesViews and Locates outliners within our data

That is the data that doesn’t fit patterns within the cycle or trendIn this particular application, the peaks show where error occurred

DifferencesOverall model error

In order to obtain overall model error we subtract the model from the actual value

By carefully analyzing the results, we were able to determine that the trans amount values from hotels with an economy status are the

highest in the summer months. Though we determined that the trans amount increases throughout the summer months, we also

discovered that there has been a steady decrease in the trans amount from year 2000 when it peaked- to the present day low

Conclusion

Economy

Luxury

Mid-scale with F&B

Mid-scale w/o F&B

Missing

Upper Upscale

Upscale