Coordinated Enhanced Observing Period (CEOP) CEOP HP : EOP-1 EOP-2 EOP-3 EOP-4.
Budget Balance/GDP* - Eurobank Ergasias · Budget Balance/GDP -6.7 -5.3 -4.6 Current Account/GDP...
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Transcript of Budget Balance/GDP* - Eurobank Ergasias · Budget Balance/GDP -6.7 -5.3 -4.6 Current Account/GDP...
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BULGARIA: Indicators 2014e 2015f 2016f
Real GDP growth % 1.7 1.8 2.2
CPI (pa, yoy %) -1.4 0.3 1.2
Budget Balance/GDP* -3.7 -2.5 -2.4
Current Account/GDP 0.9 2.0 1.5
EUR/BGN (eop)
2014 current 2015f
Policy Rate (eop) N/A N/A N/A
* on a cash basis
1.9558
Source: Reuters, Bloomberg, Eurobank Research,
National Authorities
CYPRUS: Indicators 2014e 2015f 2016f
Real GDP growth % -2.3 0.4 1.4
HICP (pa, yoy %) -0.3 -0.8 0.9
Budget Balance/GDP* -8.8 -1.1 -0.1
Current Account/GDP -5.1 -3.9 -4.2
* ESA 2010
Source: Reuters, Bloomberg, Eurobank Research,
National Authorities
ROMANIA: Indicators 2014e 2015f 2016f
Real GDP growth % 2.9 3.4 3.5
CPI (pa, yoy %) 1.1 -0.5 1.8
Budget Balance/GDP * -1.9 -1.9 -2.8
Current Account/GDP -0.4 -1.0 -1.5
EUR/RON (eop) 4.40 4.45 4.40
2014 current 2015f
Policy Rate (eop) 1.75 1.75 2.50
* on a cash basis
Source: Reuters, Bloomberg, Eurobank Research,
National Authorities
SERBIA: Indicators 2014e 2015f 2016f
Real GDP growth % -1.8 0.0 1.5
CPI (pa, yoy %) 2.1 2.2 3.8
Budget Balance/GDP -6.7 -5.3 -4.6
Current Account/GDP -6.0 -4.3 -4.1
EUR/RSD (eop) 120.96 123.00 124.00
2014 current 2015f
Policy Rate (eop) 8.00 5.00 4.50
Source: Reuters, Bloomberg, Eurobank Research,
National Authorities
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1000
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1200
Se
p-1
4
Nov-1
4
Jan
-15
Ma
r-1
5
May-1
5
Jul-
15
MSCI
L-T ccy Moody's S&P Fitch
SERBIA B1 BB- B+
ROMANIA Baa3 BBB- BBB-
BULGARIA Baa2 BB+ BBB-
CYPRUS B3 B+ B-
Credit Ratings
4
Government Bonds Commodities
Last ΔD ΔYTD Last ΔD ΔYTD (yields) Last ΔDbps ΔYTD bps Last ΔD ΔYTD
S&P 500 1995.31 0.9% -3.1% EUR/USD 1.1327 0.3% -6.4% UST - 10yr 2.28 -2 11 GOLD 1120 0.0% -5.5%
Nikkei 225 18432.27 1.4% 5.6% GBP/USD 1.5501 0.1% -0.5% Bund-10yr 0.78 1 24 BRENT CRUDE 50 -0.5% -13.6%
STOXX 600 360.80 -0.3% 5.3% USD/JPY 120.88 -0.3% -1.0% JGB - 10yr 0.37 -1 4 LMEX 2448 0.7% -16.0%
GLOBAL MARKETSStock markets FOREX
CESEE MARKETS
SERBIA ROMANIA BULGARIA
Money Market Money Market Money Market
BELIBOR Last ΔDbps ΔYTD bps ROBOR Last ΔDbps ΔYTD bps SOFIBOR Last ΔDbps ΔYTD bps
T/N 361 0 -630 O/N 0.58 -3 1 LEONIA 0.01 0 -1
1-week 3.79 1 -622 1-month 1.36 3 45 1-month 0.17 0 -4
1-month 4.13 1 -592 3-month 1.46 2 -24 3-month 0.33 0 -10
3-month 4.49 1 -536 6-month 1.65 0 -36 6-month 0.62 0 -18
6-month 4.76 1 -503 12-month 1.73 0 -29 12-month 1.22 0 -29
RS Local Bonds RO Local Bonds BG Local Bonds
Last ΔDbps ΔYTD bps Last ΔDbps ΔYTD bps (yields) Last ΔDbps ΔYTD bps
3Y RSD 5.57 -2 -351 3Y RON 1.92 -1 -39 3Y BGN 0.36 -2 -68
5Y RSD 7.08 -1 -310 5Y RON 2.35 -1 -36 5Y BGN 0.59 -1 -85
7Y RSD 8.33 -2 -375 10Y RON 3.80 1 14 10Y BGN 2.25 0 -50
RS Eurobonds RO Eurobonds BG Eurobonds
Last ΔDbps ΔYTD bps Last ΔDbps ΔYTD bps Last ΔDbps ΔYTD bps
USD Nov-17 3.28 2 -98 EUR Sep-20 1.42 -1 -31 EUR Jul-17 0.44 -5 -72
USD Nov-24 6.45 0 -14 USD Aug-23 3.71 2 10 EUR Sep-24 2.80 -17 -7
CDS CDS CDS
Last ΔDbps ΔYTD bps Last ΔDbps ΔYTD bps Last ΔDbps ΔYTD bps
5-year 277 0 -13 5-year 110 -3 -32 5-year 173 -3 -18
10-year 321 0 -35 10-year 151 -4 -36 10-year 220 -3 -20
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STOCKS STOCKS STOCKS
Last ΔD ΔYTD Last ΔD ΔYTD Last ΔD ΔYTD
BELEX15 614.2 -0.16% -7.92% BET 7145.9 0.32% 0.89% SOFIX 445.5 -0.35% -14.67%
FOREX FOREX FOREX
Last ΔD ΔYTD Last ΔD ΔYTD Last ΔD ΔYTD
EUR/RSD 120.19 0.05% 0.96% EUR/RON 4.4228 0.00% 1.37% USD/BGN 1.7269 0.31% -6.39%
500
550
600
650
700
750
800
Se
p-1
4
Dec-1
4
Ma
r-15
Ju
n-1
5
Se
p-1
5
BELEX15 Index
6000
6500
7000
7500
8000
Se
p-1
4
Nov-1
4
Ja
n-1
5
Ma
r-15
Ma
y-1
5
Ju
l-1
5
BET Index
450
470
490
510
530
550
570
Se
p-1
4
Nov-1
4
Ja
n-1
5
Ma
r-15
Ma
y-1
5
Ju
l-1
5
Se
p-1
5
SOFIX Index
114
116
118
120
122
124
126
Se
p-1
4
Dec-1
4
Ma
r-15
Ju
n-1
5
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p-1
5
EUR/RSD
4.25
4.35
4.45
4.55
Se
p-1
4
Dec-1
4
Ma
r-15
Ju
n-1
5
Se
p-1
5
EUR/RON
1.20
1.30
1.40
1.50
1.60
1.70
1.80
1.90
Se
p-1
4
Dec-1
4
Ma
r-15
Ju
n-1
5
Se
p-1
5
USD/BGN
500
550
600
650
700
750
800
Se
p-1
4
Dec-1
4
Ma
r-15
Ju
n-1
5
Se
p-1
5
BELEX15 Index
6000
6500
7000
7500
8000
Se
p-1
4
Nov-1
4
Ja
n-1
5
Ma
r-15
Ma
y-1
5
Ju
l-1
5
BET Index
400
450
500
550
600
Se
p-1
4
Nov-1
4
Ja
n-1
5
Ma
r-15
Ma
y-1
5
Ju
l-1
5
Se
p-1
5
SOFIX Index
114
116
118
120
122
124
126
Se
p-1
4
Dec-1
4
Ma
r-15
Ju
n-1
5
Se
p-1
5
EUR/RSD
4.25
4.35
4.45
4.55
Se
p-1
4
Dec-1
4
Ma
r-15
Ju
n-1
5
Se
p-1
5
EUR/RON
1.20
1.30
1.40
1.50
1.60
1.70
1.80
1.90
Se
p-1
4
Dec-1
4
Ma
r-15
Ju
n-1
5
Se
p-1
5
USD/BGN
