Bryn Merrey, Investment Sales
description
Transcript of Bryn Merrey, Investment Sales
2011
Investment Sales Trends Update
NAIOP Tampa
0
3
6
9
12
15
1Q03
4Q03
3Q04
2Q05
1Q06
4Q06
3Q07
2Q08
1Q09
4Q09
3Q10
2Q11
*
Apartment Industrial Office Retail
To
tal
Tra
nsa
ctio
ns
(00
0s)
* Preliminary FiguresIncludes sales $1M+Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, CoStar Group, Inc., Real Capital Analytics
Commercial Real Estate Transactions by Property Type
0
60
120
180
240
300
Apartment Industrial Office Retail
U.S. Total Transactions Tampa Total Transactions
To
tal
Tra
nsa
ctio
ns
Q2-2009: 50
Q2-2010: 63
Q2-2011: 77
Q2-2009: 4,523
Q2-2010: 5,442
Q2-2011: 5,940
Tampa Commercial Property Price Trends
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
Apartment
$0
$60
$120
$180
$240
Office Retail Industrial
2000-2008 2009 2010 1H11
Avg
. Pri
ce p
er U
nit
(00
0s)
Avg
. Pri
ce p
er S
q. F
t.-32%
-30%
-29%
-16%
Includes sales $1M+Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, CoStar Group, Inc., Real Capital Analytics
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
*
Commercial Real Estate 10-Year Treasury Rate
U.S. Commercial Real Estate Cap Rate Trends
Average Cap Rates vs. 10-Year Treasury
* As of September 7Sales $1 million and greaterSources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, CoStar Group, Inc.
Ave
rag
e R
ate
10-Yr Treasury Long-Term Avg.
Cap Rate Long-Term Avg.
430 bps 470 bps500 bps
190 bps600 bps
450 bps
500 bps
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
1Q20
07
3Q20
07
1Q20
08
3Q20
08
1Q20
09
3Q20
09
1Q20
10
3Q20
10
1Q20
11
2Q20
11
$0
$15
$30
$45
$60Outstanding Distress ResolvedAdditions to Distress
Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, Real Capital Analytics
U.S. Distressed Commercial Property Trends
Ad
ditio
ns to
Distress (B
illion
)Ou
tsta
nd
ing
Dis
tres
s (B
illio
n)