Bruce Zwicker - Wood Flooring Expo 2021 i… · Flooring statistics are macro, ... Stone 6%...

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Bruce Zwicker INDUSTRY CONSULTANT

Transcript of Bruce Zwicker - Wood Flooring Expo 2021 i… · Flooring statistics are macro, ... Stone 6%...

Page 1: Bruce Zwicker - Wood Flooring Expo 2021 i… · Flooring statistics are macro, ... Stone 6% Laminate 4% . Other 1% . 2018 U.S. MARKET BY PRODUCT TYPE ; LVT 25% growth per year. Almost

Bruce Zwicker INDUSTRY CONSULTANT

Page 2: Bruce Zwicker - Wood Flooring Expo 2021 i… · Flooring statistics are macro, ... Stone 6% Laminate 4% . Other 1% . 2018 U.S. MARKET BY PRODUCT TYPE ; LVT 25% growth per year. Almost

RANK COMPANY LOCATION 2017 SALES (Projected)

1 Haines Glen Burnie, MD $490m 2 BPI Memphis, TN $230m 3 Belknap White Group Mansfield, MA $210m 4 All Tile Elk Grove, IL $200m 5 Galleher Santa Fe Springs, CA $198m 6 Tri-West Santa Fe Springs, CA $168m 7 NRF Distributors Augusta, ME $159.5m 8 William M. Bird Charleston, SC $157m 9 Apollo Dist. Co. Fairfield, NJ $156m 10 FlorStar Sales Romeoville, IL $142.8m

TOP 10 U.S. FLOORING DISTRIBUTORS

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AGENDA TOPICS

• Most Important Points

• Wood Flooring Demand

• U.S. Wood Flooring Supply

• Summary NOTES: Information is from various sources Flooring statistics are macro, not indicative of your area Flooring statistics are directional and not precise

Page 4: Bruce Zwicker - Wood Flooring Expo 2021 i… · Flooring statistics are macro, ... Stone 6% Laminate 4% . Other 1% . 2018 U.S. MARKET BY PRODUCT TYPE ; LVT 25% growth per year. Almost

MOST IMPORTANT POINTS • U.S. and Europe wood flooring demand growth slowed

– Price and installation expensive relative to alternatives – In U.S., average discretionary income for high ticket items not grown

• Wood flooring remains consumers’ aspirational flooring choice

• U.S. produces less and imports more wood flooring • LVT/MLF/WPC/SPC are taking share from wood flooring • Wood flooring isn’t going away - needs to be sold and

its story told

Page 5: Bruce Zwicker - Wood Flooring Expo 2021 i… · Flooring statistics are macro, ... Stone 6% Laminate 4% . Other 1% . 2018 U.S. MARKET BY PRODUCT TYPE ; LVT 25% growth per year. Almost

WOOD FLOORING MARKET • More than 6 Billion square feet

• Increased 5% per year since 2012

• China is 30-35% of the total world market

• North America is 25-30% of total world market

Sources: BAZ, Market Insights & Catalina Research, Other

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NORTH AMERICAN FLOORING • Total North American flooring market is

approximately $29 Billion • U.S. Market is approximately $26.5 Billion - 90%

of North America

– U.S. wood flooring is approximately $3.5 Billion – Growth rate slowing – estimates vary – perhaps – 2% to -4% – Wood flooring is approximately 13% of total U.S. flooring – Higher percentage than most countries

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CONSUMPTION OF FLOOR COVERING PRODUCTS IN WESTERN EUROPE, 2017

Textile 41%

Stone/Ceramic 23%

Laminate 13%

Vinyl 15%

Wood, 5% Other, 3%

Source: FEP Estimations

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Carpet & Rugs 44%

Hardwood 13%

Ceramic 14%

LVT 12%

Vinyl 6%

Stone 6%

Laminate 4%

Other 1%

2018 U.S. MARKET BY PRODUCT TYPE

LVT 25% growth per year. Almost all of total flooring growth.

Page 9: Bruce Zwicker - Wood Flooring Expo 2021 i… · Flooring statistics are macro, ... Stone 6% Laminate 4% . Other 1% . 2018 U.S. MARKET BY PRODUCT TYPE ; LVT 25% growth per year. Almost

U.S. WOOD GROWTH TRENDS 2018 $3.5 billion • Approx. $200 – 300 million Industrial Use

(Truck beds, Railcars, etc.) • Approx. $300 – 400 million Unfinished Flooring • Approx. $2.7 billion Prefinished Flooring

Sources: BAZ, Market Insights, NWFA & Catalina Research

Page 10: Bruce Zwicker - Wood Flooring Expo 2021 i… · Flooring statistics are macro, ... Stone 6% Laminate 4% . Other 1% . 2018 U.S. MARKET BY PRODUCT TYPE ; LVT 25% growth per year. Almost

U.S. WOOD MARKET BY END USE

Sources: NWFA, BAZ & Catalina Research

Commercial is small Maximum of 10% - 15%

New Residential 20% - 30%

Good but slowing growth

Slowing growth

Residential Remodel 60% - 65%

Also called Retail

Page 11: Bruce Zwicker - Wood Flooring Expo 2021 i… · Flooring statistics are macro, ... Stone 6% Laminate 4% . Other 1% . 2018 U.S. MARKET BY PRODUCT TYPE ; LVT 25% growth per year. Almost

U.S. WOOD GROWTH TRENDS 2002 – 2015 7% to 10% per year

2016 – 2017 2% to 5% per year

Wood flooring sales are slowing primarily due to LVT

Wood is still the homeowners top choice But, wood is expensive

Sources: BAZ, Market Insights, NWFA & Catalina Research

Page 12: Bruce Zwicker - Wood Flooring Expo 2021 i… · Flooring statistics are macro, ... Stone 6% Laminate 4% . Other 1% . 2018 U.S. MARKET BY PRODUCT TYPE ; LVT 25% growth per year. Almost

12 Sources: BAZ, Market Insights & Catalina Research

Independent Dealers are losing share in retail/remodeling

% of Total Retail Flooring Sales

Independent Dealers 40%

Home Depot 15%

Lowes 10%

Floor & Décor 5%

Lumber Liquidators 2%

Other retailers 28%

Approximately 13,000 Independent Floor Covering Dealers with approximately 17,000 store locations.

TOP U.S. RETAILERS – ALL FLOORING TYPES

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TRENDS IN ENGINEERED WOOD FLOORING

Engineered Wood 54%

Solid Wood 46%

% of Wood $ Sales

Engineered Wood 57%

Solid Wood 43%

% of Wood SF Solid wood was over 50% of the market. Engineered wood is increasing.

2018

Sources: BAZ, NWFA & Catalina Research

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WOOD FLOORING PRICE TRENDS Solid wood flooring price has increased since 2007

Engineered wood price has decreased since 2007

2007 $2.24/SF 2017 $2.05/SF

Sources: BAZ, NWFA & Catalina Research

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0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Other Imports

China Imports

U.S. Production

U.S. FLOORING IMPORTS & PRODUCTION

Sources: Market Insights & US International Trade Commission

Imports are almost 50% of U.S. consumption. China is at least a third of imports. China is 50% of wood and 85% of LVT/MLF imports.

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US Wood Flooring ($ Billion)

Year Wood Market % of Total US Flooring

US Production Imports Imports % of Market

1998 $1.4 7% $1.3 $0.1 7%

2006 $2.5 10% $2.2 $0.4 15%

2009 $1.5 9% $1.0 $0.5 30%

2018 $3.1 13% $1.4 $1.6 52%

U.S. production has decreased

U.S. WOOD FLOORING

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WOOD FLOORING MAJOR PRODUCERS • Top Three - Armstrong, Shaw and Mohawk = $800+ mil

– Includes OEM imports

• Mullican, Somerset, Lumber Liquidators, Mannington, American OEM and Others = $400 - $500 mil

• Industrial and Other smaller producers = $200 - $300 mil • U.S. Production is not very profitable and there is over

capacity. • Manufacturers reduced production, raised prices, and sold

all or part of their wood divisions

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U.S. Wood & Bamboo Flooring Imports % of Import $

2008 2014 2015 2018 (est.)

China 50% 72% 70% 55%

Canada 11% 8% 8% 9% Vietnam 0% 1% 2% 7% Cambodia 0% 0% 1% 7% Indonesia 2% 2% 3% 4% Thailand 1% 0% 1% 1% Brazil 20% 3% 3% 3% Other 15% 11% 12% 14%

Southeast Asia imports increased

WOOD & BAMBOO IMPORTS

Page 19: Bruce Zwicker - Wood Flooring Expo 2021 i… · Flooring statistics are macro, ... Stone 6% Laminate 4% . Other 1% . 2018 U.S. MARKET BY PRODUCT TYPE ; LVT 25% growth per year. Almost

MOST IMPORTANT POINTS • U.S. and Europe wood flooring demand growth slowed

– Price and installation expensive relative to alternatives – In U.S., average discretionary income for high ticket items not grown

• Wood flooring remains consumers’ aspirational flooring choice

• U.S. produces less and imports more wood flooring • LVT/MLF/WPC/SPC are taking share from wood flooring • Wood flooring isn’t going away - needs to be sold and

its story told

Page 20: Bruce Zwicker - Wood Flooring Expo 2021 i… · Flooring statistics are macro, ... Stone 6% Laminate 4% . Other 1% . 2018 U.S. MARKET BY PRODUCT TYPE ; LVT 25% growth per year. Almost

BRUCE ZWICKER

CHRIS ZIZZA

DREW HASH

ISABELLE BROSE

MICHAEL MARTIN

PANEL OF INDUSTRY LEADERS

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Chris Zizza PRESIDENT & CEO

C&R FLOORING

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Drew Hash VP SHAW INDUSTRIES

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Isabelle Brose MANAGING DIRECTOR FEP

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PANEL OF INDUSTRY LEADERS

THREE THEMES

Innovation in flooring

Promotion of wood flooring

Labor issues in wood flooring installation

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EUROPEAN PARQUET MARKET

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EUROPEAN PARQUET MARKET

• Everybody wants parquet • Still its market share remains at 5%+ • 2006 - Real Wood initiative (licenses, website)

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EUROPEAN PARQUET MARKET

• 5-2-7 Project – Sensitizing the European consumer to opt for parquet

as THE flooring solution – 2017 - SmartBlogs – Next steps… when & why parquet falls out of the consumers’

decision journey Optimize the sales funnel - focusing efforts on right stages, channels and communication content