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Broad Market Potential Jim Young...
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InSupportof200GMMFEthernetPMDs
BroadMarketPotentialEconomicFeasibility
JimYoung(CommScope)
NGMMFStudyGroupGeneva,January2018
NG 200G & 400G PHYs over fewer MMF Pairs Study Group Jan 22, 2018
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ContributorsJohnKamino OFSDaleMurray LightCounting
SupportersDerekCassidy ICRG/IETCarlRombolo WellsFargoMichaelTeal CBAEarlParsons CommScopePaulKolesar CommScopeDavidPiehler DellRichardMellitz SamtechPaulNeveux SuperiorEssexMabud Choudhury OFS
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Similarlogicappliesto200GMMFasitdidforSMF
Insupportofa500mobjectiveFor200GEthernet
Welch,Palkert,MurrayIEEE50GNGOATH3/2/2016http://www.ieee802.org/3/50G/public/Mar16/welch_50GE_NGOATH_03b_0316.pdf
200G-SR1.n/?BroadMarketPotential• Multimodeisasignificantshareofthemarket
• 40GDuplex(1-pair)linksareaconsiderableandgrowingvolumecomparedtoother40Gsolutions.100G1-pairlinksareexpectedtofollow.
• ExtendstheprimarilyDuplexenterprisetopology
• Offerscostadvantage
• 200G-SR1.nfitswellintheenterprise40G-100Gevolutionofduplexswitchinterconnects,naturallyfollowingtheserverspeedevolutionfrom10Gto25Gand50G
• Potentiallyprovideserverconnectivity(multi-serverchassis),wellbeforeindividualserversreach200G
NG 200G & 400G PHYs over fewer MMF Pairs Study Group Jan 22, 2018
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MMFremainsalargemarketthrough2024
Insupportofa500mobjectiveFor200GEthernetWelch,Palkert,MurrayIEEE50GNGOATH3/2/2016http://www.ieee802.org/3/50G/public/Mar16/welch_50GE_NGOATH_03b_0316.pdf
LightCountingFeb2016data
NG 200G & 400G PHYs over fewer MMF Pairs Study Group Jan 22, 2018
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HigherSpeedMMFshareoutlook
DatafromLightCounting
NG 200G & 400G PHYs over fewer MMF Pairs Study Group Jan 22, 2018
• Enterprisemarkets• PODtopologies• Reachincreasing
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BroadMarketPotentialforMMFDuplex
• Until 40GbE, all multimode Ethernet modules were duplex
• SR4 configuration helped launch the 40GbE market
• Duplex MMF still a desired solution, quickly reaching 38% of the 40GbE MMF market in 2017
NG 200G & 400G PHYs over fewer MMF Pairs Study Group Jan 22, 2018
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BroadMarketPotentialforMMFDuplex
At 100GbE:
• SR4 configuration again helped launch the market
- SR10 never widely deployed
• Duplex MMF still a desired solution
- Projecting a 27% share of the 100GbE MMF market by 2022
NG 200G & 400G PHYs over fewer MMF Pairs Study Group Jan 22, 2018
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MMFDuplexforNext-GenSpeeds• ParallelandDuplexMMFmodulesserveessentiallytwodifferentbutcomplimentarymarkets
• LightCountinghasdocumentedsolidsuccessofMMFDuplexat40GbE
• LightCountingisforecastingsimilarsuccessforMMFDuplexat100GbE
• Thereisnoreasontobelievethiswon’trepeatat200GbE,oreven400GbE- Itwouldbeamoredifficultcasetoarguetheduplexmarketwillgoawayatfasterspeeds.
NG 200G & 400G PHYs over fewer MMF Pairs Study Group Jan 22, 2018
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40G/100GApplicationsMultimodeFiberMaximumreachbasedonStandards,MSAsand/orvendorspecifications
OM3 100 mOM4/OM5 150 m
40G
100G
Standard # fibers maximum distance
40GBASE-SR4 (8)
OM3 100 mOM4 150 m
40G-BiDi (2)
OM3 300 mOM4/OM5 400 m
40GBASE-eSR4 (8)
40G-SWDM4 (2)OM5 440 m
OM3 240 mOM4 350 m
OM3 100 mOM4/OM5 150 m
OM3 70 mOM4/OM5 100 m
100GBASE-SR4 (8)
100GBASE-SR10 (20)
OM3 200 mOM4/OM5 300 m
100GBASE-eSR4 (8)
OM5 150 m
100G-SWDM4 (2) OM3 75 mOM4 100 m
OM5 200 m
Bold = standardized; regular = extended reach (super standard); green = WDM
eSWDM additionalreach
NG 200G & 400G PHYs over fewer MMF Pairs Study Group Jan 22, 2018
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EnterpriseEvolutionGeneration Server
RateUp-linkRate
1 10G 40G->100G2 25G 200G3 50G 400G
• Large Enterprise L-S switch links migrating from 10G Duplex (port groups)
• MMF cabling infrastructure can serve at least three generations using 1-pair connectivity
• Server speeds will increase in the shorter term, 200G will help maintain contention ratios
• Continuing 1-pair infrastructure lowers the cost of upgrade – stated preference of several Enterprise operators
Server Server
Leaf Switch
(Q)SFP
SFP SFP
Spine Switch
QSFP
QSFP
1-pair MMF cabling
Server
SFP
Server
SFP
40G → 100G → 200GBiDi or SWDM4
10G → 25G →50G
NG 200G & 400G PHYs over fewer MMF Pairs Study Group Jan 22, 2018
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PhysicalLayercostrelationship
NG 200G & 400G PHYs over fewer MMF Pairs Study Group Jan 22, 2018
Datasource–industryinterviews,colleaguesandindustryexperts
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40Gopticmodulescostcomparison- Largevolumemarketcustomerreportslate2017
NG 200G & 400G PHYs over fewer MMF Pairs Study Group Jan 22, 2018
Datasource–industryinterviews,colleaguesandindustryexperts
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100GOpticModulecostcomparison- Largevolumemarketcustomerreportslate2017
NG 200G & 400G PHYs over fewer MMF Pairs Study Group Jan 22, 2018
Datasource–industryinterviews,colleaguesandindustryexperts
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ShortReachlinkmodelexamples
• Channelstructuresmayrequiretwoormoreconcatenatedlinks
• TRx :Passivecomponentcostratiohaschanged
• PrimarilyTRx hasdecreased
• moreconnectivity=highercablecosts• onecablelinkshowslowest
TRx :Cablecostratio
NG 200G & 400G PHYs over fewer MMF Pairs Study Group Jan 22, 2018
http://www.ieee802.org/3/cd/public/Nov16/traverso_3cd_01_1116.pdf
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Relativelinkcostsfor100GApplications
• Linkcostincludes2XTransceivers1Trunk,2Cordsand2for8f
• Parallel:Duplex Connectorcosts1.7– 2.1X
• MM:SMperfibermeter2.3-3.1
DuplexCord DuplexCordDuplexTrunk
eSWDM4– est.reachtargetannounced
NG 200G & 400G PHYs over fewer MMF Pairs Study Group Jan 22, 2018
Datasource–industryinterviews,colleaguesandindustryexperts
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Relativelinkcostsfor40GApplications
NG 200G & 400G PHYs over fewer MMF Pairs Study Group Jan 22, 2018
Datasource–industryinterviews,colleaguesandindustryexperts
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Conclusions
NG 200G & 400G PHYs over fewer MMF Pairs Study Group Jan 22, 2018
• Deploymentof200Gshouldfitwellbetween100Gand400Gintheenterprise- Approximately2yearcadencefrom40Gto100G,3-4yearsfor100Gto400G(50Gadhoc)- 200G1.ncouldextendthelifespanofQSFPandenableacommonporttype
• 40GMMFduplexquicklyadopted- SR1.nmodulesproducedincreasedreachand/ordecreasedcost
• LIGHTCOUNTINGforecastpredictsasimilaradoption for100GMMFduplex• Physicalinfrastructureisnowasignificantcomponentofdatalinkcosts- Duplexcablingwouldprovideacostadvantagefor200GMMFlinks
• 40Gand100GdatalinksarecompetitivewithshortreachSMdatalinksfordatacenterapplications- SupportiveoflongtermMMFmarketshareindatacenters