Bright Lights, Big Cities: How Today’s Cities Shape Tomorrow’s Countries
35
BRIGHT LIGHTS, BIG CITIES How Today’s Cities Shape Tomorrow’s Countries Canback & Company at Tufts University March 2015
Transcript of Bright Lights, Big Cities: How Today’s Cities Shape Tomorrow’s Countries
BRIGHT LIGHTS, BIG CITIES
How Today’s Cities Shape
Tomorrow’s Countries
Canback & Company at
Tufts University
March 2015
THEMES
The Global Economy: Past, Present, Future
Importance of Cities
Our World, Our Work
WORLD ECONOMY OVER 2000 YEARS1 AD – 2014 AD
Population GDP per capitaUSD
Today’s
discussion
1 2014Year
8B
01 2014Year
8k
0
JOURNEY TO THE (SOCIOECONOMIC) CENTER OF
THE EARTH
The embedded video has been deleted in this version. Click here to reach the YouTube version
204
91
45
203420141994
GLOBAL ECONOMIC GROWTHTrillions of constant 2005 PPP$
3.6
4.1
Growth per annum, %
2014
49
51
1994
34
66
91
4563
2034
Affluent
countries
Non-affluent
countries
204
37
2.3
5.6
2.4
5.5
COUNTRY-CLASS ECONOMIC GROWTHTrillions of constant 2005 PPP$, % by class
5
4
26
6
33
47
1994
22
6
20
31
Africa
North America
2034
Asia
5
59
South America
16
6
15
2014
Europe
CONTINENTAL ECONOMIC GROWTHTrillions of constant 2005 PPP$, % by continent
2.5
3.1
2.04.4
5.5
2.0
2.8
3.5
4.6
5.3
25
55
1994
45
23
53
Rural24 20
16
Other urban
Major cities59
91
2014
204
2034
253.9
2.8
4.5
4.0
4.03.0
URBAN/RURAL ECONOMIC GROWTHTrillions of constant 2005 PPP$, % by category
200
100
0
40
60
20
80
120
140
160
180
220
Mil
lio
ns
of
Ho
useh
old
s
Household Income (log scale)
1,000,000100,00010,0001,000100
1994
2014
2034
GLOBAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME DISTRIBUTIONConstant 2005 PPP$
THEMES
The Global Economy: Past, Present, Future
Importance of Cities
Our World, Our Work
MAJOR CITY GDPCurrent PPP$ 2014
Most Affluent
CONSUMER AFFLUENCE BY CITYCurrent USD, 2014
Least Affluent
Munich 50,800
Hartford 50,800
Mannheim-
Ludwigshafen53,800
New York 54,300
Washington 55,800
Boston 56,300
Abu Dhabi 56,300
San Jose 61,300
San Francisco 62,200
Stamford 75,900
800
700
400
300
Hargeysa
Mogadishu
1,200
Mbuji-Mayi 1,200
Bukavu 1,200
Monrovia 1,200
Bangui
Kisangani
Kananga
Tshikapa
1,300N’Djamena
1,200
7.1
7.2
7.4
7.4
7.4
7.6
7.9
8.4
9.5
Abuja
Yinchuan
Sharjah
Al-Raqqa
Liuyang
Ouagadougou
Xiamen
Batam
Doha
Samut Prakan 10.9
Baoji 11.2
Baku 11.2
Dushanbe 11.2
Fuling 11.5
Wanzhou 11.5
Chongqing 11.5
Ulaanbaatar 11.7
Harare 12.2
Bulawayo 12.2
Makhachkala 12.5
TOP GROWING CITIESGrowth per annum, %, 2004-2014
Population Income
BRIGHT LIGHTS IN GINZA, TOKYO
-
1
2
3
4
5
6
200 2,000 20,000
INCOME RATIOS FOR CITIES VS.
SURROUNDING AREAS2014
Bogota
Lagos 1.9
Berlin
2.4
Boston
3.3
1.3
1.3
1.6
Mumbai
Shanghai
City /
surr
oundin
g a
reas
Incom
e r
atio
Income level, PPP$
Bra
nd
ed
go
od
s
co
nsu
min
g c
lass
SOCIOECONOMIC LEVEL DEFINITIONAMAI classification
AB Upper class 5
C+ Upper middle class 7
C Middle class 7
D+ Lower middle 14
D Lower class 17
E Marginalized class 50
Share of world’s
households, 2014
E
34
30
Vancouver
13
19
D
D+
C
C+
AB
6
39
31
19
Cairo Guangzhou
23
20
28
14
11
Kathmandu
37%
20%
38%
6.6
-1.6
-0.8
CITY SOCIOECONOMIC COMPOSITION% by class; growth per annum, 2004-2014
2.4
-0.7
-3.5
-2.1
8.3
-7.9
11.7
6.6
-10.8
0.0
27.7
-3.9
22.4
16.7
0.8
8.2
16.211.110.1
7.8
10.8
WORLD-CLASS CITIES2014, Indexed to New York
Size of economy
GDP per capita
Share affluent people
Economic sphere
Top 12 in The World
New York 100
Tokyo 73
London 69
Paris 61
Los Angeles 61
Washington 60
Philadelphia 55
Chicago 51
Osaka 51
San Francisco 50
Hong Kong 50
Boston 50
Other Noteworthy
Moscow 32
Guangzhou 31
Sao Paulo 19
Sydney 18
Cairo 11
Kisangani (last) 1
THEMES
The Global Economy: Past, Present, Future
Importance of Cities
Our World, Our Work
WHAT WE DO
Analyze markets
Live markets
3 STORIES
Ho Chi Minh City
Sao Paulo
Nairobi
Core offices
Satellite offices
Country projects
Consultants’ work travel
10
Milk consumption
McDonald’s restaurants
Personal computers
Internet users
Mobile phone subscribers
Oil consumption
Television sets
Electricity consumption
Bank deposits
Tobacco consumption
Insurance premiums
ATM machines
Airline passengers
EXPLANATORY POWER OF INCOME
DISTRIBUTION DATADemand variance explained by income
above a category-specific threshold
VIET NAM ROUTE-TO-MARKET
VIET NAM PRICE POINTS
VIET NAM TRADE
Co
nsu
mp
tio
n p
er
cap
ita
Income per capita
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1,000 10,000 100,000
Da Nang
Haiphong
Can Tho
Ho Chi Minh City
Bien Hoa
Hanoi
VIET NAM ON THE REFRESHMENT BEVERAGE
S-CURVE
Price
Choices
Portfolio
Packages
Channel
SAO PAULO CONSUMER INTERVIEWS
SAO PAULO PREMIUMIZATION
0
50
100
150
0 50 100 150 200
Per
cap
ita c
on
su
mp
tio
n
Minutes of work required to buy product
Sao Paulo
Work Effort Mainstream
Consumption per ABC+
Class ConsumerPremium
2
0
1
2
2
3
7
7
9
Guatemala City
Guayaquil
Bogota
Quito
Lima
Santo Domingo
Monterrey
Sao Paulo
MexicoCity
Rio de Janeiro 17
Buenos Aires 26
SAO PAULO AFFORDABILITY
SAO PAULO RELAXATION
NAIROBI FOCUS GROUP
NAIROBI MODERN TRADE
NAIROBI TRADITIONAL TRADE
BELLY OF KENYAN CLOTHING MARKET% by type, 2014
Pri
ce
In
de
x 6
14
8
18
31
5
3
5
90-50
90-120
120-150
200+
50-90
150-200
Local
Imports
Second hand
CONCLUDING OBSERVATIONS
Markets are analyzable through an economics
lens: Use affordability hypothesis
Cities are central to our understanding of
opportunities: Today’s city is tomorrow’s
country
Combine quantitative analytics with
experiencing the realities on the ground
Enjoy the world
Canback & Company ● 210 Broadway #303 ● Cambridge MA 02139 ● www.canback.com ● +1-617-399-1300 ● [email protected]
