Brief Presentation for the International Conference on Urbanizing Deltas of the World on Research Uptake

Bangladesh Delta Plan (BDP) 2100

Catharien Terwisscha van Scheltinga, Bangladesh Delta Plan Formulation Team

With special thanks to colleagues at BDP formulation team and

General Economics Division (GED), Bangladesh Planning Commission

Overview of the presentation 1. Context and background of Bangladesh Delta Plan (BDP) 2100

2. Key characteristics of the BDP2100

3. BDP2100 Vision and Goals

4. Process summary and outputs

5. Hotspots

6. Status (Jan 2016)

7. Knowledge Round Table

Context

Bangladesh: remarkably consistent average economic growth rate of 6% over the last seven years.

Ambitions to become a middle-income country in 2021, well under way

Making this growth sustainable is even more challenging in the face of extreme adverse climate variability, with frequent storm and tidal surges, flooding, and droughts. Climate change is threatening the significant achievements made by Bangladesh in the last two decades.

As for example, If nothing was done, by 2050, climate change impact could make an additional 14% of the country extremely vulnerable to floods and dislocate more than 35 million people in the coastal districts.

Context….

Given the current ambition to attain middle-income country status, and to address the expected impacts of climate change, there is a need for an integrated approach to future land and water management in relation to water safety and food security.

Needed to that is a holistic plan with a long term vision and strategies commonly supported by all relevant stakeholders.

The recent and future anthropogenic changes in the hydrological cycle due to e.g. climate change, construction of dams and barrages in the upstream countries in combination with increasing water demand are expected to make future water governance and management even more challenging.

Initiation of BDP 2100 Preparatory team, 2011

http://bangladesh.nlembassy.org/binaries/content/assets/p

ostenweb/b/bangladesh/netherlands-embassy-in-

dhaka/import/water-management/project-

factsheets/bangladesh-delta-plan-brochure.pdf

MoU, May 2012

The Bangladesh Delta Plan 2100 Formulation Project was

undertaken by the General Economics Division (GED) of the

Planning Commission for implementation over a period of

30 months, starting from March 2014 in cooperation with

and assistance of the Government of the NL (end: Sep 2016)

Total costs: BDT 878.644 million of which BDT 764.712

million NL grant , 113.932 million GOB.

Another MoU betwee BGD, NL, World Bank, 16 June 2015

regarding strengthening water management in Bangladesh

Delta (a.o. assistance for investment planning for BDP2100)

Salient Features of BDP 2100

A holistic, adaptive and long-term (50 to 100 years) strategic plan inter-linking land, environment and water management

The purpose is to maintain a sustainable living environment for the people

BDP provides a vision, scenario and strategies with long-term interventions and an investment plan to solve water sector problem

Conducting 19 Baseline Studies for assessing present status

Building on GoB’s long-term development vision, Perspective Plan of Bangladesh 2010-21 and other existing sectoral plans

Tentative BDP 2100 Vision and Goals Ensure long term water and food security, economic growth and environmental

sustainability while effectively coping with natural disasters, climate change and other delta issues

through robust, adaptive and integrated strategies, and equitable water governance.

Goal 1: Ensure safety from floods and climate change related disasters

Goal 2: Ensure water security and efficiency of water usages

Goal 3: Ensure sustainable and integrated river systems and estuaries management

Goal 4: Conserve and preserve wetlands and ecosystems and promote their wise use

Goal 5: Develop effective institutions and equitable governance for in country and trans-

boundary water resources management

Goal 6: Achieve optimal use of land and water resources

Bangladeshi & Dutch Delta Plans

BDP 2100 incorporates many lessons learned from Dutch Delta Plan:

- Adaptive delta management: long term, flexible and integrative approach

- Strategy making & Scenarios; working with Hotspots

- Governance: already during planning process preparing the institutional setting, funding, fast track of implementation

Also characteristic differences making BDP 2100 a real Bangladeshi Delta Plan

- The Delta Vision and Goals show a broader scope leading to:

- a holistic approach with 19 themes

- large network of stakeholders and involved issues and broad consultation

- challenges related with many opportunities in the ongoing development

- Larger and highly dynamic delta with mighty rivers and more than 400 other rivers

- Other Trans-Boundary and Governance challenges

Copyright Bandudeltas - 201

Investment and Implementation Plan

Formulation of Bangladesh Delta Plan 2100

Monitoring & Evaluation of the BDP 2100

DELTA

ATELIERS

&

TT

INTERACTION

GC

Current Policy Situation

Sectoral status

Drivers & Problems

Integrated Analysis

Finalization of Baseline Studies

Formulation of Delta Vision

Development of Assessment Framework

Scenario Development

Analysis of Strategies

Preferred Strategies

Governance and Legal Framework

Institutional Development & Capacity Building

Preparation of Sectoral & Regional

Arrangements

Dissemination

Financial Mechanisms

ADAPTIVE STRATEGIESBASELINE STUDIES DELTA FRAMEWORK

7th

Five Year Plan

Summary of Process and Outputs of BDP 2100

Deliverable Status Expected date of Completion

Baseline Studies 90% 30 Nov-15

Vision, Scenarios and Assessment Framework 85% 30 Nov-15

Strategy Development 65% 28 Feb-16

Input 7th Five-Year Plan 100%

Investment planning 30% 31 August-16

Delta Ateliers (Workshops) 95%

Delta Framework 65% 31 Jan-16

Implementation Strategy 50% 31 Mar-16

Financing and Private Sector Participation 65% 31 Mar-16

Information Portal / Knowledge Management 70% 31 Dec-15

Capacity Building 50% 31 August-16

Delta Plan Document (1st Draft) Final Draft

25% 30 Jun-16

31 Dec-16

Status of BDP 2100 Formulation Project

Future

The biggest challenge will be mobilizing the fund for the implementation of

Bangladesh Delta Plan 2100; the 7th Five Year Plan indicates a block provision for

at least 2% of the GDP

www.bandudeltas.org

KnowledgeRound Table

BDP Knowledge Round Table, 1 March 2016

• For Delta Plan Document, input required regarding ‘knowledge for the future’

• Knowledge Round Table planned for 1 March 2016

• Preparatory process ongoing

• Using ‘Burning Issues’ as starting point for the round tables, identifying key research questions

• Contact: Catharien.Terwisscha@wur.nl if you want to be involved

BDP Knowledge Round Table: issues and questions 1. Ganges/river/ecosystems If one of the major rivers of the country would have very little

discharge – what would happen?

2. Coast Which water management measures do we foresee in 100 years to

address sediment/salinity?

3. Floods What level of safety against flooding for people, assets, agriculture and

environment does Bangladesh want to provide in 100 years

4. Finance How are sustainable investments and O&M for delta management

prioritized and financed in 2100?

5. Water for Food If food security is to be ensured where will the food production areas be

in 100 years and how will water for food be available?

6. Urban Where do the people live in the country and how will cities deal with water in 2100

(spatial planning, drinking water supply, sanitation, sewage, urban drainage, safety from flooding)

7. Governance How do centralized and decentralized decision making in water management work

together in 2100?

8. Climate change Which parameters to be applied given the cc per region (for downscaling at local level)

9. Adaptive water management (burning issue to be defined) (use of scenarios?)