Cyclone ASOBAABay of Bengal (BoB), After Hudhud, another cyclonic storm Ashobaa shows its presence since 8-6-2015. The name Ashobaa has been suggested by Sri Lanka. India Meteorological Department said thatAshobaa cyclone is expected to gain in momentum during the next few hours. At present, the cyclone is moving on north and northwest directions.Predictions about transition of Ashobaa cyclone: Detailed predictions carried out [9-6-2015] by the University of Wisconsin-Madisons Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies suggest that as on: 9-6-2015 Cyclone Ashobaa, moving with a speed of around 550 kilometres towards south-southwest of Karachi will make landfall in Oman and will never come towards Pakistan at all. [Tuesday, June 09, 20159:08:53 AM(IST)]ARY NEWS from Pakistan has reported that Tropical cyclone Ashobaa was 1000km away from Karachi met-department [June 9, 2015 18:45]. According to ARY NEWS report, The Pakistan Met Department at 1600 hours Pakistan Time issued a statement on its website. It said that Ashobaa was now at latitude 20.5 degrees North and longitude 64.5 degrees East Arabian Sea and had moved further northwest-ward in the last sixhours at a speed of 10 km/hr.It was now about 540 km south southwest of Karachi and 600 kms east south east of Muscat. The Tropical Cyclone is likely to intensify further and keep moving northwest-ward during the next 24 hrs.

Emirates 24|7 from UAE has reported that according to Arabic newspaper 'Emarat Al Youm', has said that the tropical depression located on the Indian coast can begin its impact on the UAE as early as today evening. [1.54 AM Wednesday, 10 June 2015]. It is further reported that: In a statement, the IMD said: The cyclonic storm Ashobaa over east central Arabian Sea has moved in a north northwesterly direction and lay centred at 5.30am IST (4am UAE time) of 9 June 2015 near latitude 20.00 N and longitude 65.00 E, about 830 km west of Mumbai, 570kms westsouthwest of Veraval, 640kms eastsoutheast of Sur, Oman and 800kms eastsoutheast of Muscat (Oman).

According to the MeT Department New Delhi, Cyclonic stormASHOBAAwill be moving north-north-westwards and intensify further into a severe cyclonic storm by Wednesday night. [ Wednesday, June 10, 2015 - 10:02]

Cyclonic storm Ashobaa path:Cyclone ASHOBAA storm track Forecasted by JTWC:

Cyclone ASHOBAA storm track Forecasted by Indian MeT Department New Delhi:

Cyclone ASHOBAA storm track Forecasted by UAE MeT Department New Delhi:

NameDates activePeak classificationWindspeedsPressureLand areas affectedDamage(USD)Deaths

AshobaaJune 7 Currently activeCyclonic storm85km/h (50mph)990hPa (29.23inHg)India, Pakistan, OmanNoneNone

III. Cyclone ASHOBAA storm warning:A. Cyclone ASHOBAA storm warning issued by Indian MeT Department:

B. Cyclone ASHOBAA storm warning issued by JTWC Department:

Cyclone ASHOBAA storm track through Satallite images and Images furnished by MeT Department: [Arranged in time scale method]Track through Satallite images: Dtd 2015-Jun 08:

Track through Satallite images: Dtd 2015-Jun 09:

Track through Satallite images: Dtd 2015-Jun 10:

Cyclone ASHOBAA storm track [Calibrated Models]:

Tropical Cyclone ASHOBAA Warning Text (JTWC):

WTIO31 PGTW 101500MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (ASHOBAA) WARNING NR 014//RMKS/1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (ASHOBAA) WARNING NR 014 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 101200Z --- NEAR 20.9N 61.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.9N 61.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z --- 20.9N 60.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 20.9N 59.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 20.9N 58.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z --- 20.7N 56.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND ---REMARKS:101500Z POSITION NEAR 20.9N 61.0E.TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01A (ASHOBAA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 138 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MASIRAH ISLAND, OMAN HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TIGHT SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPING BENEATH A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE THAT IS ELONGATED TO THE WEST DUE TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. A 101051Z SSMI 85GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS DISORGANIZED CONVECTION ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE THAT SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY REMAINS AT 55 KNOTS BASED ON AN ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BENEFIT FROM GOOD OUTFLOW CHANNELS WHICH IS SUSTAINING THE CENTRAL CONVECTION. TC ASHOBAA IS TRACKING SLOWLY WESTWARD AS IT TRANSITIONS TO THE STEERING SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHWEST. THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE WESTWARD AGAIN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE NEW STR ASSUMES STEERING. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN CURRENT INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AND THEN WEAKENS JUST BEFORE IT MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF OMAN. BEYOND TAU 36, TC 01A WILL RAPIDLY DISSIPATE AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASED FRICTION, DUE TO LAND INTERACTION, AND ADVECTS DRY AIR INTO THE CIRCULATION; LEADING TO COMPLETE DISSIPATION BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS LAID WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE AS DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS STABILIZED AND REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 102100Z, 110300Z, 110900Z AND 111500Z.//NNN

Tropical Cyclone ASHOBAA JMV 3.0 Data (JTWC) WTIO51 PGTW 101500 WARNING ATCG MIL 01A NIO 1506101242202015061012 01A ASHOBAA 014 01 270 03 SATL 020T000 209N 0612E 055 R050 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 080 SW QD 065 NW QD T012 209N 0605E 055 R050 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 065 NE QD 070 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD T024 209N 0598E 050 R034 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 070 SW QD 065 NW QD T036 209N 0586E 040 T048 207N 0569E 030 AMP 036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND 048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LANDSUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (ASHOBAA) WARNING NR 014 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (ASHOBAA) WARNING NR 014 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 101200Z --- NEAR 20.9N 61.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.9N 61.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z --- 20.9N 60.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 20.9N 59.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 20.9N 58.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z --- 20.7N 56.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND ---REMARKS:

101500Z POSITION NEAR 20.9N 61.0E.TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (ASHOBAA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 138 NMEAST-NORTHEAST OF MASIRAH ISLAND, OMAN HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z IS 18 FEET. NEXTWARNINGS AT 102100Z, 110300Z, 110900Z AND 111500Z.//0115060512 112N 676E 200115060518 117N 681E 200115060600 127N 683E 250115060606 134N 685E 250115060612 139N 686E 250115060618 145N 687E 250115060700 150N 686E 250115060706 156N 686E 350115060712 163N 684E 350115060718 170N 680E 400115060800 178N 674E 400115060806 183N 669E 400115060812 189N 664E 450115060818 194N 658E 450115060900 202N 651E 450115060906 206N 644E 500115060906 206N 644E 500115060912 209N 635E 500115060918 210N 627E 550115060918 210N 627E 550115061000 210N 620E 550115061000 210N 620E 550115061006 209N 615E 550115061006 209N 615E 550115061012 209N 612E 550115061012 209N 612E 55NNNN

Additional Information:

As we can observe from the above graphs, increasing in the brightness temperature from 240K to ~290K.