BRIAN VAD MATHIESEN

bvm@plan .aau .dk , @br i anvad

Smar t Energy T rans i t i on seminar : In te rac t i ng energy , i ndus t ry and i nnova t i on po l i c i es

A l to Un i vers i ty , He l s i nk i , F i n l and , AUG/28 2017

SUSTAINABLE ENERGY PLANNING RESEARCH GROUP

AALBORG UNIVERSITY

HOW TO CREATE GREEN GROWTH

FROM CLEAN ENERGY - THE DANISH ENERGY TRANSITION

AND SMART ENERGY SYSTEMS

TRANSITION FROM A CENTRALISED ENERGY

SYSTEM TO A PARTLY DE-CENTRALISED

SYSTEM BASED ON RENEWABLE ENERGY

2

TRANSITION FROM A CENTRALISED ENERGY

SYSTEM TO A PARTLY DE-CENTRALISED

SYSTEM BASED ON RENEWABLE ENERGY

3

S T A T U S 2 0 1 5 :

• > 4 2 % W I N D P O W E R

• M O R E T H A N 1 0 0 . 0 0 0 W I N D

T U R B I N E O W N E R S

• H I G H S H A R E O F O F F S H O R E

• 3 0 % D I S T R I B U T E D

O P E R A T I O N A N D A P P . 5 0 %

F R O M C H P

• M O R E T H A N 6 0 % H A S

D I S T R I C T H E A T I N G

• L A R G E S H A R E O F H E A T

S A V I N G S

O F F I C I A L T A R G E T :

1 0 0 % R E N E W AB L E

E N E R G Y I N 2 0 5 0

I N C L . T R AN S P O R T

Bio

mas

s

Ph

oto

Vo

ltai

cs

Win

d p

ow

er

Danish Potentials0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1970 '75 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Primary Energy Supply, PJ

Olie Naturgas Kul og koks Andet Biomasse Vindmøller Olie til transport

40 YEARS OF ENERGY

PLANNING AND

MARKET DESIGN 90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

180

190

1980 '8

2

'84

'86

'88

'90

'92

'94

'96

'98

2000 '0

2

'04

'06

'08

'10

Ind

eks

Energiforbrug Danmark Danmark BNP

L O W C O N S U M P T I O N

L O W C O S T S

S E C U R I T Y O F S U P P L Y

L O W C O 2 - E M I S S I O N S

5

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Import / Export and balance of payment

Olie Naturgas Kul El Biomasse Eksport af energiteknologi og -udstyr Balance of payment

Energy import

Energy export

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

180

190

1980 '8

3

'86

'89

'92

'95

'98

'01

'04

'07

'10

Ind

eks

Energiforbrug Danmark Danmark BNP

• Resultater:

• Cost-effect ive sector

• Good effec t on balance of payment

• Jobs and new companies

ECONOMIC RESULTS

STUDY FOR THE EU27

by

Aalborg University David Connolly

Brian Vad Mathiesen

Poul Alberg Østergaard

Bernd Möller

Steffen Nielsen

Henrik Lund

Halmstad UniversityUrban Persson

Daniel Nilsson

Sven Werner

Ecofys Germany GmbHJan Grözinger

Thosmas Boersmans

Michelle Bosquet

PlanEnergiDaniel Trier

STUDY FOR THE EU27

- D I S S E M I N A T I O N

O F R E S E A R C H

- E U R E S E A R C H

S T R A T E G Y

I N F L U E N C E A N D

P R O J E C T S

- K N O W L E D G E A N D

T E C H N O L O G Y

T R A N S F E R

HEAT ROADMAP CHINA – NE W HE AT S TRATE G Y TO RE DUCE

E NE RGY CONS UM P TION TOWARDS

2030

Tsinghua University Weiming XiongYu Wang Xiliang Zhang

Aalborg UniversityBrian Vad MathiesenHenrik LundDavid Connolly

HRE: Key Conclusion

• For EU a combination of:

– 50% District Heating (Cities)

– 50% Heat Pumps (Rural Areas)

– 35% Energy Savings (Everywhere)

Can enable the EU to reach its CO2 target in 2050 for €100 billion/year less than energy

savings on their own.

Today’s Heat Demand from Peta3

(www.heatroadmap.eu)

London

<5% DH

Copenhagen

>90% DH

Roma

<5% DH

Bucharest

~75% DH

Proven Technology!Renewable Energy vs. District Heating

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

0% 20% 40% 60%

Ren

ewab

le E

ner

gy S

har

e in

Hea

tin

g &

C

oo

ling

(%)

District Heating Share (%)

Austria Belgium

Bulgaria Croatia

Cyprus Czech Republic

Denmark Estonia

Finland France

Germany Greece

Hungary Ireland

Italy Latvia

Lithuania Luxembourg

Malta Netherlands

Poland Portugal

Romania Slovak Republic

Slovenia Spain

Sweden United Kingdom

This project has received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No. 695989.

www.heatroadmap.eu

@HeatRoadmapEU

10

• W e want to dec rease the use o f

f oss i l f ue ls bu t :

– The cur ren t sys tem is

ex t reme ly f lex ib le…

– W e canno t rep lace these wi th

b iomass on ly…

– W e need to use in te rm i t t en t

renewab le ressources !

CHALLENGES FOR THE ENERGY

SECTOR

RENEWABLE ENERGY STRATEGIES

FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT

F L E X I B L E

T E C H N O L O G I E S

I N T E G R A T E D

E N E R G Y

S Y S T E M S

Savings in Energy

Denmand

Efficiencyimprovements

in energyproduction

Renewableenergy

sources (RES)

World oil prices

Oil price projections

Electricity prices in Denmark

Electricity prices in Denmark

E LE CTRIC I T Y E X CHANGE IS M ORE

AND M ORE IM P ORTANT…

. .B U T TH E S YS TE M R E -DE S IGN IS M ORE

IM P ORTANT FOR THE E CONOM Y OV E RALL

The Danish and EU Electricity Context

Coherent 2050 analyses

• 100% is possible technically and economically feasible with smart energy systems

• Future need to focus on transmission between the sectors instead of only between countries

• A flexible system is robust with regards to costs and biomass consumption. It uses storages intelligently

• It provides more jobs (50.000) and lower health costs than fossil fuel systems

• In addition export potentials are 20-25 B€ with additional jobs

Energy and clean-tech policy opportunties in Finland?

18

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1970 '75 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Primary Energy Supply, PJ

Olie Naturgas Kul og koks Andet

Biomasse Vindmøller Olie til transport

F I N L A N D

D E N M A R K

• Need of more Renewable energy?

• Climate change?

• Energy security?

• New businesses and jobs?

• Balance of payment?

• Energy supply a major part of the economy?

• Competitiveness ?

W W W . E N E R G Y P L A N . E U

W W W . H E AT R O A D M A P . E U

W W W . S M AR T E N E R G Y S Y S T E M S . E U

W W W . 4 D H . D K

W W W . R E I N V E S T P R O J E C T . E U

State of GreenState of Green