Brexit: the UK outside of Europe INSERT IMAGE › ... › Brexit_the_UK_outside_of__Euro… ·...

INSERT IMAGE Brexit: the UK outside of Europe

The referendum result’s reach and

impact on sectors and the consumer

In the aftermath of the United

Kingdom’s decision to leave the

EU, we are exploring the

reactions to the vote around the

world and in Britain through the

prism of social media analytics.

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#Brexit

#EUreferendum

Leave hashtags (see notes for details)

Remain hashtags (see notes for details)

Source: nVision Social Media Analysis/Crimson Hexagon,Global, 2016

#Brexit: The debate on social We track activity on Twitter relating to the referendum and the most used hashtags - looking both at pre- and post-referendum activity. “Brexit” is the hashtag/keyword most used. There appears to have been more posts associated with the Leave campaign, reflecting the results on 23rd June. Please see the notes page for more details on the analysis.

V O L U M E O F P O S T S : 26,243,094

Remain hashtags (see notes for details)

Leave hashtags (see notes for details)

#EUreferendum

#Brexit

The chart below shows the volume of posts using

these hashtags from 19th February when the

referendum was announced until June 23rd -

the day the referendum took place. Volume on

social reflect the results, showing the buzz from the

Leave camp was slightly louder that the buzz for

Remain.

H A S H T A G S B A T T L E O N S O C I A L ( u n t i l

2 3 r d J u n e )

2,538,816

3,025,324

4,706046

11,444,243

Posts since 24th June:

14,798,851

3

On a global level, the negative reactions towards “Brexit” seem to outweigh the positive feelings shared over social media - and the sentiment grew even stronger when the results came in on the 24th June.

Source: nVision Social Media Analysis/Crimson Hexagon, Global, 2016

#Brexit: Global emotions and concerns

10%

11%

62%

52%

28%

37%

Before the referendum*

After the referendum**

Positive Neutral Negative

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Money

Following Brexit Vote

Plan

Effects of Brexit

K E Y W O R D S / P H R A S E S U S E D

The chart here reveals the evolving stories on social media conversations and visualise the volume of conversation associated with topics over time. The chart displays some of the more prominent topics which dominated social media conversations in the aftermath of the In-Out referendum.

Immediately after the decision to leave was announced, topics related to money dominated, whereas concerns about what the plan was gradually developed over the weekend and hit their highest point on Monday, together with concerns about the effects of Brexit vote. Following Brexit Vote peaked again on Tuesday, perhaps reflecting reactions from the EU urging Britain to limit uncertainty by speeding up the exit process.

4

Regional interest in the results of the In-Out referendum varies: when explored through a country perspective, the US leads the way, having generated over 35% of the social media conversations, followed by the United Kingdom with 28% and other big world economies.

Exploring social media activity by looking at per capita posts, however, provides some interesting insights into the impact the vote might have on consumers around the world.

Interestingly, users in Qatar have followed the process closely - in the aftermath of the decision. Some experts commented that the weaker pound might fuel further interest in the UK property market from wealthy international investors.

Further, consumers in Gibraltar have also been active on social, perhaps reflecting the discussions between the British and the Spanish governments pertaining to its status.

Interest in Bermuda, a tax haven country, also seems to be higher than in other countries, perhaps due to the role of the United Kingdom in the global financial markets.

Source: nVision Social Media Analysis/Crimson Hexagon,Global, 2016

#Brexit’s global resonance

Country % of total number of

posts

USA 35.02%

United Kingdom 28.04%

France 7.28%

Canada 3.14%

Spain 2.98%

Italy 2.24%

Germany 1.99%

India 1.89%

Australia 1.44%

Ireland 1.37%

Country Posts per Capita

(per million)

United Kingdom 78,318

Ireland 56,879

Niue 42,203

Qatar 36,543

Gibraltar 29,464

Singapore 28,148

Monaco 25,906

Bermuda 25,517

Isle of Man 21,016

France 19,762

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Total Posts

In the remaining 27 EU countries, interest towards the British referendum has doubled after the results were announced on the 24th June - the total number of posts between 19th February and 22th June is 1,047,785, compared to 2,360,424 posts since the results were announced and in the following 4 days.

It is interesting to note the change in sentiment expressed in the posts: Both negative and positive attitudes expressed in social media posts have increased, hinting perhaps at potential support among some in Europe for other exits from the union, like the often mentioned “Nexit” and “Swexit”.

Source: nVision Social Media Analysis/Crimson Hexagon, EU member states, excluding UK, 2016

#Brexit: The EU response

T O T A L N U M B E R O F P O S T S : 3,550,042 P O S T S E N T I M E N T

H A S H T A G O C C U R R E N C E S

#Brexit 1,900,000+

#EUref 91,000+

#EU 53,000+

#Dumptrump 46,000+

#AFP 44,000+

#WeThePeople 34,000+

#Racist 31,000+

9%

12%

76%

68%

15%

20%

Before the referendum

*

After the referendum

**


6

POSITIVE


#Brexit: The EU response

“YES! Congratulations England!

Hope that other will follow #Brexit #Swexit #Denxit”

NEGATIVE

“#Brexit so you're in the best market you've ever

had and you decide to leave ! Don't expect to be

allowed back in so quickly”

“Brexit is a lot like Linux on the desktop, people

think it's a pretty good idea until they try it out.”

“It'll be fun when you all want to rejoin in two years

time #brexit”

“#Brexit #UK Congratulations ! Won the #freedom to

be free , it never has been a united #Europe . We

are not the #U.S.A.”

“I see we almost learned something from Brexit, but

now the same old tribalism that caused it is only

stronger. Excellent. I'm out.”

@Juliaenlaonda @CBescansa El Brexit ha

demostrado que si votas por POSTUREO, luego

hay consecuencias! Y se lo han pensado mejor.

“The only thing that prevents me from picking

popcorn to go through the #brexit is the friends I

have there”

“I feel so sad. Europe is choosing an extreme way

to solve our

crisis... #Brexit #26J #spain #uk #EuropeanUnion”

“I remember when some states in the American

Union tried their own Brexit. Wasn't received very

well. Hopefully the Brits have better luck.”

“Anyway, I still love you UK #brexit

“Jury’s Poll: Ik ben blij met de Brexit”

“Britain I know is proud Britain. Brexit means a fresh

start. You'll do even better now, free of shackles of

EU bureaucracy.”

7

Reactions from Europeans have ranged from sarcasm to truly heartfelt support for those who voted for the country to remain. The German newspaper Zeit, launched a campaign following the referendum results, urging their Twitter followers and readers to share their love for Britain and why they cherish the country.


#WeLoveUKBecause: Support from Germany

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Total Posts

In Britain itself, responses to the result were polarised. While negative sentiment has seen an uptick, from the topic wheel below, which illustrates the phrases most frequently mentioned when sharing, it is clear that consumers have mixed feelings about what Brexit means for the country going forward. The topics are hierarchically organised, where inner circles denote most dominant “alpha” topics and outer circles represent their subtopics. Posts are revolving around what the plan is going forward, what that means for the NHS but also the effects on the economy

Source: nVision Social Media Analysis/Crimson Hexagon, UK, 2016

In Britain, opinions are divided

T O T A L N U M B E R O F P O S T S : 6,474,469

P O S T S E N T I M E N T

12%

10%

65%

57%

23%

33%

Before the referendum*

After the referendum**


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POSITIVE NEGATIVE


Mixed feelings about British identity

“I was never exactly "proud" to be British but now

I'm just fucking ashamed.”

“So disappointed that today's our 'independence

day'- not proud to be British anymore

;( #EURefResults #Euref #WhatHaveWeDone”

“Well done people, you make me proud to be British

again. Faith is restored #Brexit #SuckitEU”

“I am so proud to be British for the first time in my

life ”

“We took our ONLY chance So proud to be British

Unfortunately I'm now a racist #BrexitIn5Words”

“If your tweeting proud to be British your a **** idiot”

“So proud to be British right now, We now have

freedom to trade with who we want !! We now have

say of what we want !! EU is a sinking ship !”

“Proud to be British? How can I be proud when time

and time again it's the younger generation that gets

fucked over. I'm ashamed.”

“@beckshoneyman feel so alienated from my own

country. I'm not proud to be British. I'm ashamed.”

“It's funny, I've always been very proud to be British

but after yesterday I feel so detached from

everything in this country ”

“So happy and proud for the British. Most of us

would rather lose some profit than be ruled by a

drunk in Belgium.”

“Happy independence day, damn proud to be British

this morning #voteleave #brexitparty”

“I wish people would stop moaning about not being

'European' any more. We are all Europeans but

British first & damned proud of it #Euref”

“This is no longer a country I can feel part of, or

proud of. Days of

shame. #Brexit #EUref #liedto #weimarmoment”

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For some, the result of the referendum has brought to the forefront the question of European identity in a new way. Britain has always been one of the EU countries where, historically, European self-identification has been less pronounced than in other member states. However among the young in particular the result has generated a wave of self-identification as European on social media.


European self-identification in the UK: an uptick? “I was born a European and I'll die a European.”

“I think I'm too old to technically been born

European but I'll remain European, philosophically,

body and soul.”

“As a proud European and a 10 year resident of

Germany, this was not my choice and never will

be. #whathavewedone #ashamedtobeBritish.”

“I am not British, I am European. I did not want this

vote, I do not except the result #EURefResults.”

“Because this is London. I’m European first and

British second.”

“@JoyR16 I suppose it's a matter of perspective:

mine's a fight for inter-dependence +

internationalism. By nature+nurture I'm European.”

“I'm Greek, I'm French, I'm Scottish but most

importantly I'm European! #ScotlandStays

#ScotlandinEurope.”

@KenilworthBook @dtrhradio I'm European.

Whatever the electorate vote. I will not be defined by

the ignorance of others. I am European.

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Brexit: Sector impact

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Investment news makes up over half of the conversations around finance as consumers are using stock information to gauge the overall economic situation in the UK.

Other conversations around personal finances we tracked centre around the exchange rate, mortgage rates and pensions where consumer confidence is failing. These are all areas where we anticipate increased caution and preference for safer investments.

The key phrases chart identifies clusters of similar posts and plots the volume of those clusters .

Source: nVision Social Media Analysis/Crimson Hexagon, Worldwide, 2016

Brexit: Impact on savings and personal finance

P O S T E X A M P L E S K E Y P H R A S E S U S E D

“Siemens freezes new UK wind power

investment following Brexit

> Anyone got a spare basket to put all the eggs in?

https://www.theguard …”

“It's almost 1am & my group chat of day ones are

talking bout personal finance and investment

techniques using hedging strategies”

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Brexit and your Investments Investment in the UK Exchange Rate Brexit Brexit could Push Mortgage Rates Brexit how will Pensions

“Anyway, I am delighted that retirement pensions of

old Brexit voters will get a huge kick due to the £

dive #brexit”

13

The cautious consumer will be wary of buying if they anticipate that housing prices will fall. In the UK however, housing supply does not meet demand, which could keep prices and projects robust.

Google Trends is a valuable social analysis resource, allowing us to monitor our social and consumer trends through another lens: the popularity of Google searches over a period of time.

Source: nVision Social Media Analysis/Crimson Hexagon, Worldwide, 2016 Source: : nVision/Google Trends, UK, “Should I buy a house”, 29/06/2016

Brexit: Impact on housing

G O O G L E T R E N D S A N A L Y S I S

The sheer increase in searches for “should I

buy a house” shows a massive spike in

consumer uncertainty post referendum vote -

however The Cult of the Home is strong in

the UK and there will still be individuals who

will desire ownership despite uncertainty.

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100 = Peak searches

I N T H E N E W S

Mortgage rates is the

biggest housing

conversation on social

media. Potential buyers

may defer until it is

clear in which direction

they are heading.

Should I buy a house? UK

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May 1st-23rd June 23rd-27th June

190

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Disposable Income (2008 base year)

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C O N V E R S A T I O N O N S O C I A L B Y S E C T O R Our trends Maximising Behaviour and the Death of Risk are a product of mindsets triggered by the 2008 recession when cautious consumers focussed on saving rather then spending. We expect these trends to intensify during this period of uncertainty.

Political uncertainty will accelerate our Naked Citizens with early independent behaviour focusing on finances and housing.

Source: nVision Social Media Analysis/Crimson Hexagon, Worldwide, 2016 Source: ONS, “Impact of the recession on household spending”, 2012

Source: YouGov Househld Economic Activity Tracker, May and June 2016

Brexit: Sectors and consumer confidence

C O N S U M E R C O N F I D E N C E

The YouGov and Cebr Consumer Household

Economic Activity Tracker measures daily economic

sentiment. There is a distinct slump since the vote

but it is still higher than the average of 99.2 since

2007. | Axis set at 100

111.9

104.3

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Finance Travel Housing Food and Drink

R E C E S S I O N : H O U S E H O L D S P E N D I N G

113.6

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38% of posts about both travel and Brexit are from the USA, where interest in the events has peaked after a New York Times article outlined why travel to Europe and in particular to the UK is now cheaper than ever, which would have a positive impact on retail, restaurants and hotels.

25% of posts came from the UK where the majority of consumers are uncertain of what the impact will be in the long term but are already feeling the pinch of the falling sterling.

The topic wheel identifies groups of recurring words and phrases from the UK in conversation and arranges them into topics and subtopics. The topics are hierarchically organised, with the inner circles denoting the most dominant “alpha” topics and outer circles representing related subtopics.


Brexit: Impact on travel

Even in the UK, the New

York Times article about

how Brexit will affect travel

to Europe is being shared.

RT @nytimes How Brexit will

affect travel to Europe

https://t.co/i5IBTv59jS

https://t.co/ySWCV5rgxa

Brits are also discussing

either ironically or sincerely

whether a bank holiday

should commemorate the

day of the referendum.

The fear that leaving the EU

will have a negative impact

on British holiday makers is

already expressed in

conversations of staying at

home due to an anticipated

increase in the cost of travel.

Enjoy your overseas

summer holiday Brexit

voters. Gonna be an

expensive one.

Latest update: Will Brexit

mean more of us holiday at

home? - Following the Brexit

vote, overseas holidays

have... https://t...

16

The discussion online of Brexit’s impact on education is mostly contained to the implications of higher education which may be forced to charge students higher fees and may not be able to make up the research funding that currently comes from the European Union. Students from the EU may also be deterred in the future if visa requirements become complicated, but globally UK fees are currently more affordable due to the price of sterling.

The sentiment chart to the right reflects how overwhelmingly negative the tone of the conversation is - which is also reflected in the examples of posts.


Brexit: Impact on education

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Mentions of: System of Student Debt

Mentions of: Education Brexit

P O S T E X A M P L E S

V O L U M E O F P O S T S : 10,921

“Is it time to say goodbye to EU collaborations,

EU students and EU funding? A sad day for the

higher education #Brexit”

C O N V E R S A T I O N S E N T I M E N T

4% 43% 52%


“Brits continue their stupid spiral downward.

Iraq War collaborator, privatized crappy trains,

adopts US system of student debt, now Brexit.”

17

The current discussion around food and drink is largely comic with the known impact of exiting the EU not yet known.

There is buzz collecting around food prices - if prices do rise we anticipate that behaviour will be similar to the recession, where the volume of food bought fell while spending increased due to rising prices.

Source: nVision Social Media Analysis/Crimson Hexagon, Worldwide, 2016 Source: ONS, “Impact of the recession on household spending”, 2012

Brexit: Impact on food and drink

P O S T E X A M P L E S S P E N D I N G I N C R E D I T C R U N C H

15.5 16.0 16.5 17.0 17.5 18.0 18.5 19.0 19.5 20.0

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current price (value)

chained volume measure (volume)

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Value and volume of food and non-alcoholic

beverages | 2008 base year | Value in billion

Comic posts such as “The Food version of Brexit” highlight the current dependence on imports that will be affected by new policy upon a British exit.

“Does #Brexit mean

the food in the UK is

going to go back to

being inedible?”

“Brexit could cause

food prices in the

UK to rise.

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Learn More - Methodology

Foresight Factory conducts original research twice-yearly in an average 25 countries, with an average sample size of 37,000 respondents per wave. This robust survey is nationally representative of the offline population and results are adjusted using a proprietary algorithm to allow reliable global comparisons to be made.

The data is charted for all key breaks like age, household income, working status and savings as well as more specific breaks like religion, smartphone ownership and BMI. Once downloaded subscribers to FFonline can double-click on the charts embedded in trend reports to reveal Excel ‘back sheets’ containing the data behind them.

Our in-house research and editorial team compare FF’s first party data with multiple third party data sources to definitively identify, size and rank trends before presenting their predictions in easily digestible reports.

19

Learn More - About Foresight Factory

Foresight Factory, formerly Future Foundation, works with some of the world's leading companies to help them 'Own the Future'.

Globally headquartered in London, with offices in New York, Singapore and Stockholm we are masters of prediction, constantly scouring the globe to pick apart behaviour, spotting trends and disruption before they happen.

Our principal delivery? A unique and highly customisable digital platform, FFonline, that marries best-in-class data science with editorial creativity, to give our 200+ clients 24/7 access to predictive insights from 50,000 consumer voices and a global network of 500 Trendspotters across 28 markets. We also offer consultancy, undertaking custom projects to help clients answer complex questions.

To find out more about Foresight Factory, please visit www.foresightfactory.co where you can register for demo of FFonline, or contact our team.

http://www.foresightfactory.co/

https://www.foresightfactory.co/contact-us/

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