BREEDERS’ CUP Wagering guide · and a special Best of the Best page with key horse-of-the-day...

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Drosselmeyer wins 2011 Breeders’ Cup Classic with Mike Smith


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BREEDERS’ CUP WagERing gUiDE UPDatESAvAILABLE ONLINE DAILy BEGINNING TuESDAy, OCTOBER 30

Best of the BestBelow are the most interesting Breeders’ Cup runners with comments from each expert.

XpressBet Breeders’ Cup Wagering Guide Stats & Trends and Know Thisinformation provided by Jeremy Plonk (Horseplayernow.com).

Friday, November 2

CATON BREDAR (Ladies’ Classic) A returning champ like Royal Delta is enough to cheer all by herself, but when she gets a chance to repeat against one of the toughest fields in the history of the race, it’s magic. I’m most looking forward to seeing Royal Delta once again in the Ladies’ Classic and believe, despite being a year older, she can still carry her form westward and best the likes of truly special fillies in their own right like My Miss Aurelia and Awesome Feather--fillies who, in any other year, would be the best of the best themselves.

DICK JERARDI (Ladies’ Classic) Questing gets the perfect surface at Santa Anita for her run-them-off-their feet speed. The faster she goes early, the better she runs and the harder it is for the chasers to keep up and also finish.

GARY WEST (Juvenile Sprint) Beholder’s allowance victory on Oct. 4 at Santa Anita, in her first race on dirt, was nothing less than sensational, and it suggests that if she runs in the Juvenile Sprint she’ll be one of the most probable Breeders’ Cup winners. In that October race, she zipped to the lead in 44.02 for the opening half-mile, the second-fastest half-mile split that day was 45.28, in an allowance/optional claimer for older horses, and was just cruising, in hand, when she completed the three-quarters in 1:09.

Saturday, November 3

JENNIE REES (Filly & Mare Sprint) I am glad the Filly & Mare Sprint is on Saturday, as I’ll be using favored Groupie Doll in multi-race bets as a single. I do expect Midwest and East Coast horses to have a far better showing than in 2008-2009 at Santa Anita when the Breeders’ Cup main track races were on synthetic surfaces.

STEVE BYK (Classic) While the obvious storylines make the Ladies’ Classic and Mile wildly appetizing, the handicap division has alternated headliners all year. I’m hoping for a career-defining performance from one of the principals Saturday night in the Classic as To Honor And Serve shuts up his critics.

MIKE BATTAGLIA (Classic) The best bet of the day for me has to be Game On Dude in the Classic. He is in top form; he is on his home track; and the combination of Baffert and Bejarano is tough to beat at Santa Anita.

JEFF SIEGEL (Classic) Quite simply Game On Dude is the surest winner of the two-day program. Unbeaten in five starts at Santa Anita and with the tactical speed to insure an ideal pace stalking trip, the Bob Baffert-trained gelding has never looked better in the morning and clearly has hit his peak at age five.

BREEDERS’ CUP WagERing gUiDE UPDatESAvAILABLE ONLINE DAILy BEGINNING TuESDAy, OCTOBER 30

exacta box: ($2 Wager) 2 horse box . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $4 3 horse box . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $12 4 horse box . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $24 5 horse box . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $40 6 horse box . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $60 7 horse box . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $84 8 horse box . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $112

exacta wheel: ($2 Wager)One Horse with All 6 horse field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $10 7 horse field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $12 8 horse field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $14 9 horse field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $16 10 horse field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $18

trifecta box: ($1 Wager) 3 Horse Box . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $6 4 Horse Box . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $24 5 Horse Box . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $60 6 Horse Box . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $120 7 Horse Box . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $210 8 Horse Box . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $336

trifecta wheels: ($1 Wager)One Horse with All with All (Example: 1/All/All or All/1/All or All/All/1) 7 Horse Field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $30 8 Horse Field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $42 9 Horse Field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $56 10 Horse Field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $72

One Horse with Two Horses with All (Example: 1/2/All or 2/1/All or 1/All/2 or 2/a All ll/1 or All/1/2 or All/2/1) 7 Horse Field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $10 8 Horse Field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $12 9 Horse Field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $14 10 Horse Field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $16

trifecta keys: ($1 Wager) 1 Horse with 3 others . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $6 (Example: 1/ 2, 3, 4/ 2, 3, 4) 1 Horse with 4 others . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $12 (Example: 1/ 2, 3, 4, 5/ 2, 3, 4, 5) 1 Horse with 5 others . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $20 (Example: 1/ 2, 3, 4, 5, 6/ 2, 3, 4, 5, 6) 1 Horse with 6 others . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $30 (Example: 1/ 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7/ 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7) 1 Horse with 7 others . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $42 (Example: 1/ 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8/ 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8)

superfecta box: ($1 Wager) 4 Horse Box . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $24 5 Horse Box . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $120 6 Horse Box . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $360

superfecta wheels: ($1 Wager)One Horse with All with All with All 7 Horse Field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $120 8 Horse Field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $210 9 Horse Field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $336 10 Horse Field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $504 (Example: 1/All/All/All or All/1/All/All or All/All/1/All or All/ All/ All/1)

One Horse with Two Horses with All with All 7 Horse Field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $40 8 Horse Field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $60 9 Horse Field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $84 10 Horse Field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $112 (Example: 1/ 2/ All/ All or 2/ 1/ All/ All or 1/ All/ All/ 2 or 2/ All/ All/ 1

or All/ All/ 1/ 2 or All/ All/ 2/ 1)

superfecta keys: ($1 Wager) 1 Horse with 3 others . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $6 (Example: 1/2, 3, 4/2, 3, 4/2, 3, 4) 1 Horse with 4 others . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $24 (Example: 1/2, 3, 4, 5/2, 3, 4, 5/2, 3, 4, 5) 1 Horse with 5 others . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $60 (Example: 1/2, 3, 4, 5, 6/2, 3, 4, 5, 6/2, 3, 4, 5, 6) 1 Horse with 6 others . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $120 (Example: 1/2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7/2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7/2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7) 1 Horse with 7 others . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $210 (Example: 1/2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8/2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8/2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8)

EXOtiC WagERing CHaRtBreeders’ Cup exotic wagers usually produce hefty payoffs. Use this handy Exotic Wagering Chart to plan your attack.

anaLYSiS: This race is only in its second year, so there are no patterns to consider. This surely is about speed, who has it and who can sustain it. There is fast and then there is BEHOLDER fast. The filly just got a 108 Beyer and she definitely will be challenged by MERIT MAN, who is not only fast, but has shown the ability to rate and go. It looks like about one-third of the field will be fillies; suggesting fast is fast, with sex not really a consideration by the trainers.

Main COntEnDERS: MERIT MAN is not only fast, he also gets Patrick Valenzuela aboard, who may very well be the best gate jockey in the history of the sport. MERIT MAN, unbeaten in two starts, was good on the Polytrack at Del Mar when he won at 20-1, better on the dirt at Santa Anita when he won clear at 5-2. The 92 Beyer from the small stakes at Santa Anita would stand out if it weren’t for that amazing 108 earned by BEHOLDER. Yes, she is a filly racing against mostly colts, but, if she runs back to that race, the boys will never see her after they leave the gate. BEHOLDER ran like a promising prospect at Del Mar, but nothing, not even her second by a nose in the Del Mar Debutante, suggested what went down on Oct. 4 in her first start on dirt. She went a half-mile in 44 seconds and 6 furlongs in 1:09, winning by 11 lengths and getting that amazing Beyer. SUPER NINETY NINE was a very impressive debut winner for Bob Baffert on Oct. 7. He was in a battle the whole way and kept going.

VaLUE PLaYS: When you have what looks like a short-priced horse in BEHOLDER, the value is in the exotics with a horse that has a different running style. Assuming BEHOLDER can tire out the horses chasing her, the right play should be to find a decent closer at a nice price to pass the chasers in the stretch and use in the exacta. The right horse may be another filly, SWEET SHIRLEY MAE, who was a late-running second to the terrific So Many Ways in the Spinaway.

WagERing StRatEgiES ($100):

• $100 Exacta: BEHOLDER over SWEET SHIRLEY MAE ($100)

the Eyes Of the Beholderby Dick Jerardi Philadelphia Daily News & Daily Racing Form Columnist

Dick’s Picks

Post 1:06 pm Pacific

Wagering MenuWin, Place, Show,Exacta, Trifecta,

Superfecta,Daily Double,Pick 3, Pick 6

FRIDAY

Race 4

1. BEHOLDER 2. SWEET SHIRLEY MAE 3. MERIT MAN 4. SUPER NINETY NINE

Breeders’ Cup

Juvenile Sprint$500,000

Stats & trendsDivision Debut: 2011 Favorites: Win 100% In-The-Money 100% Average Winning Payoffs $2 Win: $2.80 $1 Exacta: $14.00 $1 Trifecta: $153.10 $1 Superfecta: $863.50

Juvenile Sprint Highlight (first time at Santa Anita) 2011: Heavily favored Secret Circle opened a large lead in the stretch and, despite drifting out, was a handy inaugural Juvenile Sprint winner at 2-5 odds for trainer Bob Baffert.

Know thisThe $2.80 win return on Secret Circle last year tied with two others for the second-lowest $2 payoff in Breeders’ Cup history. Meadow Star paid an event-record low $2.40 in her ‘90 Juvenile Fillies score.

The inaugural Juvenile Sprint at Churchill Downs had just 9 runners.

The only European entrant in the ’11 Juvenile Sprint, Shumoos, finished a late-running second at 15-1 odds.

‘11 Juvenile Sprint alumni Secret Circle and Trinniberg went on to win the Grade 2 Rebel, Grade 2 Woody Stephens, Grade 3 Southwest, Grade 3 Swale and Grade 3 Bay Shore this season.

6 Furlongs

FINISH

START

anaLYSiS: ELDAAFER is back for a third straight try. As might be expected, the propensity for stamina in European bloodlines has proven beneficial in two of four runnings—both at Santa Anita. Important to keep in mind, though, that both previous Santa Anita editions were contested on a synthetic surface. With the return to dirt, the US may once again hold the hotter hand.

Main COntEnDERS: WORTH REPEATING is one of the few in the field proven on the Santa Anita main track and at a marathon distance, having won a graded stakes at the track going 1-1/2 miles last year. ATIGUN impressed with a third-place finish in the Belmont Stakes and has since fared admirably against his elders, finishing a fast-closing fourth in the Jockey Club Gold Cup.

VaLUE PLaYS: CALIDOSCOPIO, who won two of his last three in his native Argentina racing at distances of 1-1/2 and 1-9/16 miles, must be feared. Invaders from Ireland, SENSE OF PURPOSE and FAME AND GLORY, both are somewhat accomplished at an extended distance, albeit on turf and against lesser competition, but if their respective trainers, Dermot Weld and Aidan O’Brien, think enough of them to make the trek, both must be played at high odds. NOT ABROAD is in top form coming off a win in the Maryland Million Classic. This consistent colt runs his race regardless of track and seems the type to want to run all day.


• $20 Win/Place: NOT ABROAD ($40)• $2 Exacta Box: NOT ABROAD, WORTH REPEATING, ATIGUN and CALIDOSCOPIO ($24)• $2 Exacta Box: NOT ABROAD, SENSE OF PURPOSE and FAME AND GLORY ($12)• $2 Exacta Box: WORTH REPEATING, SENSE OF PURPOSE and FAME AND GLORY ($12)• $1 Exacta Box: ATIGUN, SENSE OF PURPOSE and FAME AND GLORY ($6)• $1 Exacta Box: CALIDOSCOPIO, SENSE OF PURPOSE and FAME AND GLORY ($6)

Maryland in the Marathonby Caton Bredar Horse Player NOW & HRTV Handicapper

Caton’s Picks



Superfecta,Daily Double,

Pick 3

FRIDAY

Race 5

1. NOT ABROAD 2. WORTH REPEATING 3. ATIGUN 4. CALIDOSCOPIO

Breeders’ Cup

Marathon$500,000 - Grade 2

StatS & tREnDS Division Debut: 2008 Favorites: Win 0% In-The-Money 25% Average Winning Payoffs $2 Win: $37.50 $1 Exacta: $188.55 $1 Trifecta: $1,369.85 $1 Superfecta: $6,925.28

Marathon at SA Highlight 2009: Man of Iron, younger brother to Belmont Stakes winners Rags to Riches and Jazil, became the first and only 3-year-old to win the Marathon.

KnOW tHiS 41-1 shot Afleet Again returned the race’s biggest $2 win mutuel at $85.20 in ’11 - 9th highest win payoff in Breeders’ Cup history.

No European runner has been better than eighth in 2 Marathons on dirt. European imports won the ‘08 and ‘09 Marathons at Santa Anita on its former synthetic surface.

No horse older than age 5 has won the Marathon.

Of 12 horses in the Marathon trifecta since ‘08, only 2 were below 6-1 odds.

Winning Marathon sires have been A.P. Indy, Giant’s Causeway, Chester House and Afleet Alex, all Grade/Group 1 winners at 1-1/4 miles or longer.

1 3/4 Miles

FINISH

START

anaLYSiS: When owner Gary Barber partnered with Stoneway Farm in the 2012 OBS Mixed Sale, they wrote a handsome check at auction for $320,000 for a filly by Spring At Last, out of a Rahy mare. With a perfect 3-for-3 racing slate, it has turned into a genuine bargain. SPRING VENTURE already has earned about $310,000 and her value will increase exponentially if she can win the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf. Campaigning at Woodbine for trainer Mark Casse, SPRING VENTURE has to be considered a top contender, and may sneak in at reasonable odds. However, she will not be alone at the top of this division.

Main COntEnDERS: The likely post-time favorite will be Irish-bred SKY LANTERN, winner of the Group 1 Moyglare Stud Stakes at The Curragh. That seven-panel win produced a Timeform Rating of 111, guaranteeing plenty of betting action. Another Casse filly by Spring at Last is SPRING IN THE AIR, winner of the Grade 1 Alcibiades on the Polytrack at Keeneland and a fast-closing second to the aforementioned SPRING VENTURE in the Grade 2 Natalma at Woodbine. Meanwhile, white-hot trainer Chad Brown sends out the Irish-bred WATSDACHANCES, winner of two straight in New York with expert handling from jockey Javier Castellano.

VaLUE PLaYS: By definition, any 2-year-racing offers uncertainty. These babies can explode almost overnight, so shopping for value plays is always a good option. MOULIN DE MOUGIN just broke her maiden at Santa Anita down the hill, but this Curlin filly shows lots of upside for crafty trainer Richard Mandella. WATERWAY RUN has won 3-of-4 in England for trainer Ralph Beckett, outrunning her modest $15,000 purchase price.


• $15 Exacta Part-Wheel: SPRING VENTURE with SPRING IN THE AIR, WATERWAY RUN, SKY LANTERN, MOULIN DE MOUGIN and WATSDACHANCES ($75)• $5 Exacta Part-Wheel: SPRING IN THE AIR, WATERWAY RUN, SKY LANTERN, MOULIN DE MOUGIN and WATSDACHANCES with SPRING VENTURE ($25)

Spring Will Be Sprungby Bob neumeier NBC Sports Reporter

Bob’s Picks




FRIDAY

Race 6

1. SPRING VENTURE 2. SPRING IN THE AIR 3. SKY LANTERN 4. MOULIN DE MOUGIN

1 Mile Turf

FINISHSTART

Breeders’ Cup

Juvenile Fillies turf$1 Million - Grade 1

StatS & tREnDS Division Debut: 2008 Favorites: Win 0% In-The-Money 50% Average Winning Payoffs $2 Win: $22.30 $1 Exacta: $85.65 $1 Trifecta: $515.48 $1 Superfecta: $7,024.83

Juv. Fillies Turf at SA Highlight 2009: Tapitsfly out-dueled pacemaker and eventual runner-up Rose Catherine to lead a 1-2-3-4-5 sweep for the east coasters.

KnOW tHiS Americans have secured 14 of 16 superfecta spots in this race since ’08.

Favorites have finished second (Winter Memories ‘10), third (Laragh ‘08) and eighth (Lillie Langtry ‘09 and Elusive Kate ‘11) in the Juvenile Fillies Turf.

The most lightly-raced Juvenile Fillies Turf winners have been Maram (‘08) and More Than Real (‘10), with two prior starts each.

No California-based trainer has ever won the Juvenile Fillies Turf.

Woodbine juvenile grass horses have been outstanding the past two years, including a Juvenile Turf-Juvenile Fillies Turf sweep in ‘10 (More Than Real, Pluck) and last year’s 33-1 Juvenile Turf runner-up Excaper.

anaLYSiS: The undefeated EXECUTIVEPRIVILEGE made it five in a row for the team of trainer Bob Baffert and jockey Rafael Bejarano with an impressive romp in her first try around two turns. She has the added advantage of a win over Santa Anita dirt and will be a deserving favorite. The big question to me is the caliber of competition that she has been beating and the fact that she will be facing a much tougher pace scenario in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies. She is the most likely winner, but I’m not sold on taking a short price on this one.

Main COntEnDERS: Both Todd Pletcher-trained fillies, KAUAI KATIE and DREAMING OF JULIA, also are undefeated. Neither has been around two turns, but both are bred to handle the added distance. KAUAI KATIE figures to be the one who sets the pace and DREAMING OF JULIA probably will be right alongside EXECUTIVEPRIVILEGE in the early going. Farther back, SPRING IN THE AIR is a quality closer who ran a big race in the Alcibiades at Keeneland. She will benefit from the expected fast pace, but the question mark with her is that his is first time on dirt.

VaLUE PLaYS: With a short field size by Juvenile Fillies’ standards, SPRING IN THE AIR probably won’t be a big price, but could be a bit of an overlay. Mark Casse’s 2-year-olds have been running very well and SPRING IN THE AIR is a filly who has improved with every start. Another step forward could make her tough to beat.


• $40 Win: SPRING IN THE AIR ($40)• $20 Exacta Box: SPRING IN THE AIR and EXECUTIVEPRIVILEGE ($40)• $10 Exacta Box: SPRING IN THE AIR and KAUAI KATIE ($20)

Spring the Upsetby Mike Battaglia NBC Sports Reporter

Mike’s Picks




FRIDAY

Race 7

1. SPRING IN THE AIR 2. EXECUTIVEPRIVILEGE 3. KAUAI KATIE 4. DREAMING OF JULIA

Grey Goose Breeders’ Cup

Juvenile Fillies$2 Million - Grade 1


Juvenile Fillies at SA Highlight 2009: She Be Wild gave trainer Wayne Catalano his second Juvenile Fillies tally in a 4-year span, following the success of ’06 winner Dreaming of Anna.

KnOW tHiS The $1 exacta in the Juvenile Fillies has paid an amazingly consistent $24-$28 in 6 of the last 7 years.

Last year’s favorite My Miss Aurelia was the 10th straight Juvenile Fillies winner to return 7-1 or less.

Favorites are an astounding 23-for-28 in-the-money in the Juvenile Fillies.

9 of the last 10 Juvenile Fillies winners exited victories in their most-recent preps. Only She Be Wild (second in the ’09 Alcibiades) won the race after a loss.

West coast-based horses have won this race 4 out of 5 times at Santa Anita. Only Midwest invader She Be Wild in ‘09 shipped to Santa Anita to win.

1 1/16 Miles

FINISHSTART

1 1/4 Mile Turf

FINISH

START

anaLYSiS: Trainer John Gosden is a four-time Breeders’ Cup winner, but he has yet to enjoy any success in the Filly & Mare Turf. That’s about to change in 2012. THE FUGUE is an exceptional English import and would be a legitimate contender even if she faced males in the Turf (her second preference). To illustrate what appears to be her considerable edge in this field, let’s closely examine NAHRAIN, runner-up in this race last year. She was trounced by THE FUGUE in the Nassau Stakes in August, but then came stateside and won the Grade 1 Flower Bowl in New York. THE FUGUE has a devastating late kick that is made-to-order for top-of-the-ground running like Santa Anita’s turf and has been pointed at this race by a trainer who knows what it takes to win.

Main COntEnDERS: THE FUGUE isn’t the only top-class European import in the field. RIDASIYNA arrives fresh from a dominating victory in the Prix de l’Opera at Longchamp and has been beaten just once in five lifetime starts. She may be partial to softer going, but it’s unlikely she would be sent to California unless her connections thought conditions would be suitable. Of the American contingent, LADY OF SHAMROCK is perfect (3-for-3) at Santa Anita, though it could be argued that the competition she’s been facing has been somewhat less than stellar. MARKETING MIX appears to have a stronger resume; she’s traveled extensively and has won virtually everywhere she’s been. And, she can adjust to any type of pace scenario.

VaLUE PLaYS: ZAGORA strongly should be considered in the exotics. She’s been on a win-lose-win-streak lately and the timing is right again for her best shot. She absolutely loves firm ground, and can produce a terrific turn of foot when given a chilly, patient ride. But make no mistake, THE FUGUE is the one to beat, and if she leaves at 5-to-2 or better, she may offer sufficient value in the win pool without having to mess with the horizontals.


• $70 Win: THE FUGUE ($70)• $5 Exacta Box: THE FUGUE, RIDASIYNA and ZAGORA ($30)

a Case Of European Superiorityby Jeff Siegel HRTV Handicapper

Jeff’s Picks




Pick 3

FRIDAY

Race 8

1. THE FUGUE 2. RIDASIYNA 3. ZAGORA 4. MARKETING MIX

Breeders’ Cup

Filly & Mare turf$2 Million - Grade 1


F&M Turf at SA Highlight 2009: A late rally by defending champion Forever Together fell short as English 3-year-old Midday missed the 1-1/4 miles stakes record time (Islington ‘03) by just .01 second.

KnOW tHiS Complete chaos has marked the past 2 renewals of this race with $94 winner Shared Account in ‘10 and $57 winner Perfect Shirl a year ago.

Only 3 sophomores have won the Filly & Mare Turf, all of them European imports: Banks Hill in ‘01, Ouija Board in ‘04 and Midday in ‘09. No horse older than 5 has won this race.

Favorites have finished in the money in 10 of 13 Filly & Mare Turf renewals since its ‘99 inception.

Horses prepped in California are 0-for-24 all-time in the Filly & Mare Turf, with only ‘02 runner-up Banks Hill and ‘08 third-place finisher Wait a While finishing in the money.

anaLYSiS: There’s the old racing saw that if you didn’t go to the wedding, don’t go to the funeral. I went to the wedding with trainer Bill Mott the last two years in this race (having both exactas), so I’m not looking for a funeral. ROYAL DELTA is going to become the first two-time Ladies’ Classic winner since Bayakoa in 1989-90. ROYAL DELTA was a monster in Belmont’s Beldame around one turn, and I believe she’s better around two turns. There’s a lot of speed in here, and that won’t hurt ROYAL DELTA, one of three Breeders’ Cup winners and Eclipse champions in this field, along with unbeaten AWESOME FEATHER (’10 Juvenile Fillies) and MY MISS AURELIA (’11 Juvenile Fillies).

Main COntEnDERS: Cotillion winner MY MISS AURELIA has improved her Equibase Speed Figures every start and has worked sensationally at Santa Anita. I just think the 1-1/8 miles distance favors ROYAL DELTA. AWESOME FEATHER is freaky good, coming back from a tendon injury. But she hasn’t been facing top company. Distance-loving QUESTING, the CCA Oaks and Alabama winner, will be the one to catch in a field with lots of speed. INCLUDE ME OUT will get a faster pace and has the home-court advantage. I think there’s too much speed for Zenyatta/Personal Ensign winner LOVE AND PRIDE to pull off another upset.

VaLUE PLaYS: This is a great race to watch the board and bet accordingly. I believe ROYAL DELTA will be a big favorite, but it could be AWESOME FEATHER or MY MISS AURELIA. If you like a horse, consider the Ladies’ Classic/Classic double or a late daily double that starts in the race prior to this.


• $10 Exacta Part-Wheel: ROYAL DELTA over MY MISS AURELIA, AWESOME FEATHER, QUESTING and INCLUDE ME OUT ($40)• $10 F&M Turf/Ladies’ Classic Daily Double Part-Wheel: THE FUGUE, RIDASIYNA, IN LINGERIE and MARKETING MIX to ROYAL DELTA ($40)• $20 Ladies’ Classic/Classic Double: ROYAL DELTA to your Classic choice ($20)

One More For Mr. Billby Jennie Rees Louisville Courier - Journal Columnist

Jennie’s Picks



Superfecta,Ladies’ Classic/Classic Double,Super High-5

FRIDAY

Race 9

1. ROYAL DELTA 2. INCLUDE ME OUT 3. QUESTING 4. AWESOME FEATHER

Breeders’ Cup

Ladies’ Classic$2 Million - Grade 1


Ladies’ Classic at SA Highlight 2009: Trainer John Shirreffs notched his second straight Ladies’ Classic win at Santa Anita when Life Is Sweet followed in the footsteps of her more illustrious stablemate Zenyatta.

KnOW tHiS Trainer Bill Mott won back-to-back editions of the Ladies’ Classic with Royal Delta (’11) and Unrivaled Belle (’10). Mott-trained Mushka finished second at Santa Anita in this race 3 years ago.

The Ladies’ Classic pacesetter hasn’t finished in the money since Adoration went wire-to-wire in ‘03, the last time this race was held on dirt at Santa Anita.

The Spinster has produced at least one superfecta finisher in each of the past 8 Ladies’ Classic renewals, and a record 9 winners overall – the last Pleasant Home in ‘05.

Three-year-olds finished 1-2 in the Ladies’ Classic a year ago and 2-3-4 the previous season.

1 1/8 Miles

FINISHSTART

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anaLYSiS: In just five editions, European-based runners have won the Juvenile Turf three times, including last year’s edition captured by the Aidan O’Brien-trained Wrote. Lack of experience seems to be no obstacle: In many cases, Euro winners had done little more than compete in maiden races, and both editions at Santa Anita were captured by the foreign invaders. The Euros once again appear to hold a strong hand, but the US contingent may offer the strongest representation to date. With the Santa Anita course playing extremely fast of late, an emphasis on speed—American style—may be the order of the day.

Main COntEnDERS: For America, the one-two finishers in the With Anticipation Stakes at Saratoga, the Chad Brown-trained BALANCE THE BOOKS and the Mike Maker-trained JOHA, rank among the top contenders. JOHA’s sire Johar won the 2003 BC Turf over this course. Among the Europeans, last year’s winning connections offer the most accomplished runner in GEORGE VANCOUVER. ARTIGIANO also is likely to garner support.

VaLUE PLaYS: BROWN ALMIGHTY suffered a brutal trip in the Bourbon. Chad Brown’s “other” runner, NOBLE TUNE, is undefeated in two tries on turf. Woodbine graded stakes winner I’M BOUNDTOSCORE is the only other pace threat in the field. DRY SUMMER arguably is the best of the West, and may be a big price after disappointing on the main track last out. Any of the remaining Europeans—DUNDONNELL, FANTASTIC MOON, RISING LEGEND, LINES OF BATTLE and possibly even SNOW KING must be considered.


• $20 Win: JOHA• $1 Exacta Box-Wheel: JOHA with ALL ($22)• $1 Exacta Box-Wheel: ARTIGIANO with ALL ($22)• $1 Trifecta Box: JOHA, ARTIGIANO, NOBLE TUNE and DUNDONNELL ($24)• $1 Exacta Box: BROWN ALMIGHTY, DRY SUMMER, GEORGE VANCOUVER and BALANCE THE BOOKS ($12)

Like Father, Like Sonby Caton Bredar Horse Player NOW & HRTV Handicapper

Caton’s Picks

Post 11:50 am Pacific



SATURDAYRace 4

1. JOHA 2. ARTIGIANO 3. NOBLE TUNE 4. DUNDONNELL

Breeders’ Cup

Juvenile turf$1 Million - Grade 1


Juvenile Turf at SA Highlight 2009: Pounced gave trainer John Gosden and jockey Frankie Dettori back-to-back wins in Juvenile Turf editions. They also teamed to win the’08 renewal at Santa Anita with Donativum.

KnOW tHiS All five winners in this race’s history have had one-word names (Wrote, Pluck, Pounced, Donativum and Nownownow).

At least one European has been in the Juvenile Turf exacta in 4 of the event’s 5 years.

Irish-bred horses took 3 of the top 4 spots in last year’s Juvenile Turf.

The last 4 winners of the Juvenile Turf are a combined 1-for-13 after those signature scores. ‘08 champ Donativum was the last to win a race at any level.

More than half of the Breeders’ Cup race winners at Santa Anita have been 5-1 or less on the toteboard (27-for-51). Longshot players collected on 9 who were 20-1 or more.

1 Mile Turf

FINISHSTART

anaLYSiS: Up until MUSICIAL ROMANCE’s $42 surprise last year, the Filly & Mare Sprint had been a relatively formful event with pairs of low-priced winners in Ventura ($7.60) and Informed Decision ($8.80), and mid-priced upsets fashioned by Maryfield ($18) and Dubai Majesty ($19.20). One consistency among 10 of the 15 board-hitters in the five years of this 7-furlong test has been a prep path that saw previous starts coming over a synthetic course at Keeneland, Woodbine, Presque Isle or in California.

Main COntEnDERS: Is that ‘Contenders’ plural or ‘Contender’ singular? Buff and Fred Bradley’s immensely talented GROUPIE DOLL will be one of the Breeders’ Cup’s shortest prices and should prove the most reliable single of the weekend in multi-race wagers. To lose, she will have to turn in an “off” performance while one of her marginal foes improves significantly. A performance like her Grade 1 Humana Distaff on the Derby undercard will see her distance this field by a dozen lengths. She’s that much better than the rest of the division and has been under-appreciated this year.

VaLUE PLaYS: Modest value probably will be available in the legitimate 2nd-4th choices like defending F&M Sprint champion MUSICIAL ROMANCE, TURBULENT DESCENT and double-Grade 1 winner CONTESTED (Test/Acorn). Longer numbers will be offered on improving DUST AND DIAMONDS, versatile Michael Trombetta troubadour STRIKE THE MOON and hard-knocking mare SWITCH. Pacific Northwest invader CLASS INCLUDED will be boxcars and closing late on the cutback.


• $10 Exacta Part-Wheel: GROUPIE DOLL with TURBULENT DESCENT, SWITCH, CONTESTED, MUSICAL ROMANCE, STRIKE THE MOON, DUST AND DIAMONDS and CLASS INCLUDED ($70)• $5 Trifecta Part-Wheel: GROUPIE DOLL with TURBULENT DESCENT, SWITCH, CONTESTED, MUSICAL ROMANCE, STRIKE THE MOON and DUST AND DIAMONDS with CLASS INCLUDED ($30)

groupie Doll Likely a One Woman Showby Steve Byk At the Races - Sirius/XM Host

Steve’s Picks




Pick 3

SATURDAYRace 5

1. GROUPIE DOLL 2. TURBULENT DESCENT 3. CLASS INCLUDED 4. SWITCH

Breeders’ Cup

Filly & Mare Sprint$1 Million - Grade 1


F&M Sprint at SA Highlight 2009: Informed Decision capped a 6-for-7 season by holding off the late run of 4-5 favorite Ventura. Hall-of-Fame trainer Jonathan Sheppard posted a win (F&M Sprint), place (Marathon) and show (F&M Turf) on the BC Friday program.

KnOW tHiS Keeneland’s Thoroughbred Club of America Stakes produced last year’s 1-2 finishers in this race (Musical Romance, Switch), as well as ‘10 heroine Dubai Majesty and ‘09 champ Informed Decision.

The $42.40 win mutuel on Musical Romance in the ‘11 F&M Sprint is the largest in the 5-year history of this race, surpassing the $19.20 return on Dubai Majesty in ‘10.

Favorites are 0-for-5 in the F&M Sprint, including a 5th-place disappointment from 7-5 chalk Turbulent Descent in ‘11.

Pacesetters have finished 3rd, 5th, 7th, 10th and 11th in 5 editions of the F&M Sprint.

7 Furlongs

FINISH

START

anaLYSiS: Prior to pre-entries, the Dirt Mile appeared to be one of the most contentious races on the day. It is not that now. It could be the kind of race that is dominated by a horse with early speed. What originally looked like a big field with a potentially meltdown pace is a much shorter field without nearly as much early speed. And that really could benefit SHACKLEFORD. While FED BIZ and DELEGATION certainly have a lot of speed, neither appears as fast as SHACKLEFORD. If Santa Anita’s main track is holding speed, SHACKLEFORD, with aggressive trainer Dale Romans sensing the tactical advantage, may be very difficult to catch.

Main COntEnDERS: Any horse who won the Preakness one year and the Metropolitan Mile the next is dangerous. SHACKLEFORD also was good enough to run second in this race last year. He doesn’t always fire, but when he does, he fires big. JERSEY TOWN had not won in 22 months when he ran by SHACKLEFORD to win the Kelso Handicap like a wild horse. If that explosion was not a once-every-two-years fluke, look out. But if he bounces, look out in the other direction. NONIOS ran the race of his life when second to GAME ON DUDE in the Awesome Again. Speaking of sophomores, one by one, Bob Baffert’s good 3-year-olds exited the scene. Now only FED BIZ remains. This will be the colt’s first race outside the division, but, if he does not get caught up in a vortex, he could be the kind of horse that gets first run on the closers and just keeps going.

VaLUE PLaYS: If GAME ON DUDE was in this race, he would be odds-on. NONIOS was no threat to the Classic favorite in the Awesome Again, but he was a clear second. Additionally, he looks to have the right style to run by some of the chasers in the stretch. His second in the Haskell was better than it looked, as he was rushed up on the rail prematurely and then made a second move on the turn against runaway winner Paynter.


• $80 Exacta: SHACKLEFORD over NONIOS ($80)• $20 Exacta: NONIOS over SHACKLEFORD ($20)

Expect Shack to Be Backby Dick Jerardi Philadelphia Daily News & Daily Racing Form Columnist

Dick’s Picks




Pick 3

SATURDAYRace 6

1. SHACKLEFORD 2. NONIOS 3. JERSEY TOWN 4. FED BIZ

Breeders’ Cup

Dirt Mile$1 Million - Grade 1


Dirt Mile at SA Highlight 2009: Owner Ken Ramsey’s $35,000 claim Furthest Land beat Breeders’ Cup Juvenile champ Midshipman to give jockey Julien Leparoux his third winner of the championship weekend.

KnOW tHiS This is the first time the Dirt Mile will be run around 2 turns on conventional dirt. The race was run on a synthetic surface at Santa Anita in ’08-’09 and around 1 turn at Churchill Downs the last two years.

Deep closers Dakota Phone and Caleb’s Posse rallied from last and next-to-last to win the last 2 editions of the Dirt Mile.

The last 4 Dirt Mile favorites have finished out of the money, Master Craftsman (7-5), Well Armed (6-5), Here Comes Ben (5-2) and Willburn (5-2).

Caleb’s Posse became the first 3-year-old to win the Dirt Mile in ‘11, following a runner-up try by sophomore Morning Line in ‘10.

1 Mile

START FINISH

anaLYSiS: When the Cup comes to Santa Anita the sport’s most unique course is on display in the 6-1/2 furlong Turf Sprint. Runners dash “down the hill” and take a right turn before looping back and crossing over the main track to rejoin the lawn for the stretch drive. More than brilliant, traditional 5- or 6-furlong turf sprinters, horses that own experience on the hill and ones turning back from 7-furlong to 1-1/16 mile efforts should be your focus. Winning pace styles vary as evidenced by CALIFORNIA FLAG scoring on the front end in ’09 and Desert Code late in ’08.

Main COntEnDERS: Sophomore UNBRIDLED’S NOTE, likely best when third in the Grade 1 King’s Bishop, shipped west early to win the inaugural Grade 3 Eddie D. here at Santa Anita and is the absolute horse to beat. As mentioned above, venerable 8-year-old CALIFORNIA FLAG won this event two years ago, but has been away since April’s Grade 3 San Simeon score. CALIFORNIA FLAG is working smashingly and must be respected. BRIDGETOWN may go favored here, but is as vulnerable a short price as the weekend will produce. Bet against.

VaLUE PLaYS: Chad Brown spent time in Bobby Frankel’s Arcadia barn and knows what works down the hill, so the cutback with quality miler CORPORATE JUNGLE is worth attention. After a tangled break, BOXEUR DES RUES ran a sneaky-good Eddie D. and will be an enormous number closing from far back. CAMP VICTORY is 4: 0-1-0 on the hill, but that second was to sharp Regally Ready in the ’11 Morvich.


• $40 Win: UNBRIDLED’S NOTE ($40)• $5 Exacta Part-Wheel: UNBRIDLED’S NOTE with CALIFORNIA FLAG, CORPORATE JUNGLE, BOXEUR DES RUES, CAMP VICTORY, STARSPANGLEDBANNER and STARSPANGLED HEAT ($30)• $1 Exacta Box: CALIFORNIA FLAG, CORPORATE JUNGLE, BOXEUR DES RUES, CAMP VICTORY, STARSPANGLEDBANNER and STARSPANGLED HEAT ($30)

take a ’note’ On Unique turf tripby Steve Byk At the Races - Sirius/XM Host

Steve’s Picks




SATURDAYRace 7

1. UNBRIDLED’S NOTE 2. CORPORATE JUNGLE 3. BOXEUR DES RUES 4. CALIFORNIA FLAG

Breeders’ Cup

turf Sprint$1 Million - Grade 1


Turf Sprint at SA Highlight 2009: Post time favorite California Flag went wire-to-wire for his fourth straight victory and locally-based horses nabbed 3 of the top 4 spots in the Turf Sprint.

KnOW tHiS California-based horses won the first two editions of the Turf Sprint over Santa Anita’s unique downhill turf course at 6-1/2 furlongs. The Turf Sprint was contested at 5 furlongs the past 2 years at Churchill Downs.

Europeans finished 4th, 12th, 14th and 14th in two editions of the Turf Sprint at Santa Anita.

Regally Ready became the second favorite in four years to take the Turf Sprint when scoring on the front end at 2-1 odds last year.

Horses aged 4 (twice), 5 and 6 have accounted for the first 4 editions of the Turf Sprint.

Winners have returned in the same BC race the following year 53 times and are a combined 53: 8-8-9 with 28 off-the-board finishes.

START

FINISH

6 1/2 Furlongs Turf

anaLYSiS: This year, the Cup has mandated that no horse in Juvenile races can use any race-day medication, including Lasix. The one horse who hasn’t been on Lasix, FORTIFY, could therefore have an edge, but there’s a question if he’s quite fast enough. SHANGHAI BOBBY, 4-for-4, is the deserving favorite. But Bob Baffert, who pre-entered Grade 1 FrontRunner winner POWER BROKER and impressive maiden-winner TITLE CONTENDER, is awfully tough when the Juvenile is at his home track. This is one of the weaker Juveniles, with the Juvenile Sprint and Juvenile Turf siphoning off horses.

Main COntEnDERS: SHANGHAI BOBBY should handle 1-1/16 miles just fine. He so far has stamped himself as the fastest horse in the field and is effective on the front end or stalking. POWER BROKER has improved with every race and could have finally gotten his preferred surface in scoring his first career victory in the FrontRunner by 6-1/2 lengths after racing on synthetic and turf. Beware of the lesser-regarded half of the uncoupled trainer’s entry. TITLE CONTENDER improved with blinkers and dirt and could be this year’s candidate to win the Juvenile off a maiden victory, ala Action This Day in 2003. KNOW MORE, who won a Grade 2 race in his debut and was second in the Grade 1 Del Mar Futurity, deserves another shot and could win if he relaxes behind the speed.

VaLUE PLaYS: Off his distant second in the FrontRunner, KNOW MORE could be a very attractive price. Breeders’ Futurity runner-up DYNAMIC SKY could spring a surprise if he likes the dirt. CAPO BASTONE will be coming at the end.


• $20 Exacta Part-Wheel: SHANGHAI BOBBY over POWER BROKER and CAPO BASTONE ($40)• $10 Exacta Part-Wheel: SHANGHAI BOBBY over TITLE CONTENDER, KNOW MORE and DYNAMIC SKY ($30)

• $20 Exacta: POWER BROKER over SHANGHAI BOBBY ($20)

• $10 Exacta: TITLE CONTENDER over SHANGHAI BOBBY ($10)

it’s Bob vs. Bobbyby Jennie Rees Louisville Courier - Journal Columnist

Jennie’s Picks




Pick 3

SATURDAYRace 8

1. SHANGHAI BOBBY 2. POWER BROKER 3. CAPO BASTONE 4. DYNAMIC SKY

Grey Goose Breeders’ Cup

Juvenile$2 Million - Grade 1


Juvenile at SA Highlight 2008: Midshipman ran the fastest Breeders’ Cup Juvenile in history, covering 1-1/16 miles in 1:40.94.

KnOW tHiS Six consecutive Juvenile exactas have included the race favorite.

In the 5 Juveniles held at Santa Anita, west coast-based horses have won 4 times (Capote ’86, Brocco ’93, Action This Day ’03 and Midshipman ’08). Dubai-based Vale of York tallied in ‘09.

Since ‘95, the only Juvenile winners to have prepped most recently in New York have been Uncle Mo (‘10) and War Pass (‘07).

Garrett Gomez and Mike Smith are the only active jockeys to have won the Juvenile twice. Gomez won in ’05 and ’08 with Stevie Wonderboy and Midshipman; Smith captured the ’95 and ’02 renewals with Unbridled’s Song and Vindication.

40 of 132 $1 BC superfectas have paid $10K or more. Minus the $692K ‘99 Classic payoff the average super is just shy of $10K.

1 1/16 Miles

FINISHSTART

anaLYSiS: Not surprisingly, the Breeders’ Cup Turf has been dominated from its inception by Europeans; 20 times a horse bred or imported from across the Atlantic has finished first. But in 2012, a homegrown product, POINT OF ENTRY, deserves the favorite’s role and we’re expecting him to justify it. A typically late-developing son of Dynaformer, the Shug McGaughey-trained colt didn’t capture his first added-money event until April of this year and hasn’t been beaten since, his winning streak currently resting at six. And with the European contingent appearing below its usual standard, the home team has a right to be optimistic, if not confident.

Main COntEnDERS: ST NICHOLAS ABBEY, the defending BC Turf champion from Europe, returns, but doesn’t appear to be in quite the same form as he was at this time last year. Truthfully, it’s been a long, hard 2012 campaign for the Aidan O’Brien-trained veteran. The Japanese import, TRAILBLAZER, made a very favorable impression in a prep race at a mile over this course a month ago and clearly is better-suited by this trip. He must be respected. You know the French filly SHARETA is good enough; she finished 2nd in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe last year. And the 2011 Irish Derby winner, TREASURE BEACH, was a reasonably close runner-up to POINT OF ENTRY in his last outing, the Turf Classic Invitational at Belmont.

VaLUE PLaYS: OPTIMIZER will be a longshot, and deservedly so; he’s a Grade 3 winner and nothing more. But highlight only his turf form and you’ll find an English Channel colt that shows three wins in five starts with legitimate excuses in the other two. It would be just like D. Wayne Lukas – with more Breeders’ Cup victories (18) than any other trainer – to pull off this kind of shocker.


• $40 Win: POINT OF ENTRY ($40)• $5 Exacta Box: POINT OF ENTRY, TRAILBLAZER and SHARETA ($30)• $5 Exacta Box: POINT OF ENTRY, TRAILBLAZER and OPTIMIZER ($30)

Let’s Hear it For the Home teamby Jeff Siegel HRTV Handicapper

Jeff’s Picks




SATURDAYRace 9

1. POINT OF ENTRY 2. TRAILBLAZER 3. SHARETA 4. OPTIMIZER

Breeders’ Cup

turf$3 Million - Grade 1

StatS & tREnDS Division Debut: 1984 Favorites: Win 32% In-The-Money 57% Average Winning Payoffs $2 Win: $21.01 $1 Exacta: $86.75 $1 Trifecta: $659.36 $1 Superfecta: $9,700.99 ($3,693.53 minus ’00 payoff)

Turf at SA Highlight 2003: The only dead-heat for win in Breeders’ Cup history took place in the ‘03 Turf at Santa Anita between Johar and defending champ High Chaparral.

KnOW tHiS European horses have won (or dead-heated) in the BC Turf in 11 of the last 13 years, including the last 4 straight.

Americans have not finished 1-2 in the BC Turf since ‘04 when Better Talk Now and Kitten’s Joy completed the exacta. It’s the only time that’s happened since ‘98.

At least one foreign-bred horse has been in the Turf trifecta each of the past 13 years, including 9 winners during that span and last year’s 1-2 finishers St. Nicholas Abbey and Sea Moon.

In the 5 Turf renewals held at Santa Anita (including a ‘03 dead-heat), Europeans own 3 wins, Californians 2 wins and New Yorkers 1 win.

1 1/2 Mile Turf

FINISH

START

anaLYSiS: The Sprint is always one of the toughest Breeders’ Cup races to handicap. With overflow fields and tons of early speed, there usually are at least a couple of runners who lose all chance because of a bad trip. This year’s field, as in most years, is very evenly matched with no stand-out favorite. It would be tough to single any runner in the Pick Three or Pick Four, and I wouldn’t take less than 5-to-1 odds on any horse in here for a win bet.

Main COntEnDERS: COIL and THE LUMBER GUY both exit Grade 1 wins at the six-furlong distance and are arguably the top sprinters from the West and the East. EMCEE and AMAZOMBIE also are at the top of the class, and any of those four could end up as the favorite. THE LUMBER GUY has never lost a one-turn race and comes to the Breeders’ Cup off of a career-best performance in the Vosburgh. He has plenty of early speed, but definitely is capable of rating and the presence of Johnny V. in the saddle always is a plus. COIL is from the hot barn of Bob Baffert and has had a month to sharpen his speed. Stablemate CAPITAL ACCOUNT deserves our respect.

VaLUE PLaYS: Although SMILING TIGER hasn’t shown much in any of his three races this year, he has been given a bit of a freshener and is training well over the Santa Anita surface. A return to his best form could make him a contender at nice odds. TRINNIBERG and SUM OF THE PARTS both are 3-year-olds with good early speed. If either one could get loose on the lead, he could be tough.


• $46 Win: THE LUMBER GUY at 5-to-1 odds or better ($46)• $5 Trifecta Key: THE LUMBER GUY over COIL, SMILING TIGER and CAPITAL ACCOUNT ($30)• $1 Trifecta Box: THE LUMBER GUY, COIL, SMILING TIGER and CAPITAL ACCOUNT ($24)

Chopping Down all Challengersby Mike Battaglia NBC Sports Reporter

Mike’s Picks




Pick 3

SATURDAYRace 10

1. THE LUMBER GUY 2. COIL 3. CAPITAL ACCOUNT 4. SMILING TIGER

Xpressbet Breeders’ Cup

Sprint$1.5 Million - Grade 1


Sprint at SA Highlight 2008: Midnight Lute became the first back-to-back Sprint winner in history, and did it with just one one prep race during the ‘08 season--a 10th-place finish at Del Mar.

KnOW tHiS Five of the last 6 Sprint winners were 7-1 or less, but Dancing in Silk’s 25-1 upset in ‘09 came at Santa Anita.

California-based horses have won 5 of the last 6 Sprint editions. Only Florida-based Big Drama in ‘10 interrupted the streak.

In 5 Sprints at Santa Anita, California-based horses have won 3 times.

Jockey Corey Nakatani has 4 Sprint wins, including 3 straight from ‘96-’98.

Since ‘00, only 1 Sprint winner has been older than age 5 (Speightstown was 6 in ‘04).

Six 3-year-olds have won the Sprint. Silver Train was the last in ‘05.

6 Furlongs

FINISH

START

anaLYSiS: WISE DAN just may be the best horse in training in North America. EXCELEBRATION may be the second-best horse training in Europe behind recently retired Frankel. Those observations are subject to debate. But what cannot be questioned is the fascinating showdown in the Breeders’ Cup Mile – the best head-on matchup over the two days of championship racing. Sprinkle in a Kentucky Derby winner in ANIMAL KINGDOM and a California supersonic jet in OBVIOUSLY and you have an event for the ages.

Main COntEnDERS: If not for the incredible superstar Frankel, EXCELEBRATION would be carrying a 13-race winning streak into the Breeders’ Cup Mile, most at the Group 1 level. That Frankel whipped him five times should not be viewed as a negative. Okay, Frankel is Frank Sinatra and EXCELEBRATION is Tony Bennett, but you would pay to see either heavyweight crooner in concert. WISE DAN is without any faults or blemishes, and likely will be the post-time favorite. Any horizontal wagers should include both talented runners in Pick Fours, Fives, Sixes as “doubles,” not singles.

VaLUE PLaYS: There is more meat to chew on, specifically ANIMAL KINGDOM, OBVIOUSLY and MOONLIGHT CLOUD et al, if you choose to shop in another aisle. OBVIOUSLY adores the rock-hard California ground and is dangerous on the lead. MOONLIGHT CLOUD is another French filly from the Freddy Head barn of Goldikova fame. And what about ANIMAL KINGDOM off the layoff since February? Who knows in all honesty? Trainer Graham Motion should be immediately inducted into the Hall-of-Fame if he can get the 2011 Kentucky Derby winner first to the line off of that layoff against this field.


• $80 Exacta: WISE DAN over EXCELEBRATION ($80)• $20 Exacta: EXCELEBRATION over WISE DAN ($20)

a Vintage international Showdownby Bob neumeier NBC Sports Reporter

Bob’s Picks



Superfecta,Daily Double

SATURDAYRace 11

1. WISE DAN 2. EXCELEBRATION 3. MOONLIGHT CLOUD 4. OBVIOUSLY

Breeders’ Cup

Mile$2 Million - Grade 1


Mile at SA Highlight 2008: Goldikova made her US debut with a flashy BC Mile win as a 3-year-old filly.

KnOW tHiS Europeans have won 4 of the 5 Mile editions held at Santa Anita.

American-based horses have comprised at least two-thirds of the Mile finish in each of the last 7 years.

10 straight Mile trifectas have sported at least one horse who broke from post position No. 10 or wider, including ‘11 runner-up Turallure from post 13.

The ‘11 Mile produced a race-record $2 win return by Court Vision at $131.60, the second-biggest payoff in Breeders’ Cup history. The $1 exacta return of $989.80 also was largest ever for a BC Mile.

Only two American-based 3-year-olds have won the Mile, War Chant in ‘00 and Lure in ‘92.

1 Mile Turf

FINISHSTART

anaLYSiS: Bob Baffert, the trainer of GAME ON DUDE, said the pace will be the key to this race. There doesn’t appear to be anybody in the field capable of forcing the kind of rapid pace that would compromise the favorite. GAME ON DUDE could enjoy a perfect stalking trip, or he could seize control of the pace himself. Either way, he’s going to be tough. He’s unbeaten at Santa Anita.

Main COntEnDERS: MUCHO MACHO MAN had trouble in the Woodward, where he was probably best. But there’s a caveat: He always has given his best performances on larger ovals; he ran his worst race this year at Churchill, which, like Santa Anita, is a one-mile layout. FORT LARNED might be best at 1-1/8 miles, but he has performed consistently well all year and has sufficient tactical speed to be close early. RON THE GREEK and FLAT OUT have the talent, but probably won’t get the hot-pace scenario they’ll need.

VaLUE PLaYS: ROYAL DELTA is capable, but more likely to run in the Ladies’ Classic. TO HONOR AND SERVE has enough speed to steal the prize.


• $1 Superfecta Part-Wheel: GAME ON DUDE with MUCHO MACHO MAN, TO HONOR AND SERVE, ROYAL DELTA and FORT LARNED with MUCHO MACHO MAN, TO HONOR AND SERVE, ROYAL DELTA, FORT LARNED, FLAT OUT and RON THE GREEK with MUCHO MACHO MAN, TO HONOR AND SERVE, ROYAL DELTA, FORT LARNED, FLAT OUT and RON THE GREEK ($60)• $2 Trifecta Part-Wheel: GAME ON DUDE with FLAT OUT, RON THE GREEK with FLAT OUT, RON THE GREEK, MUCHO MACHO MAN, TO HONOR AND SERVE, ROYAL DELTA and FORT LARNED ($20)• $2 Trifecta Part-Wheel: GAME ON DUDE with FLAT OUT, RON THE GREEK, MUCHO MACHO MAN, TO HONOR AND SERVE, ROYAL DELTA and FORT LARNED with FLAT OUT and RON THE GREEK ($20)

the Dude to Catchby gary West ESPN.com Columnist

gary’s Picks



Superfecta,Super High-5

SATURDAYRace 12

1. GAME ON DUDE 2. MUCHO MACHO MAN 3. TO HONOR AND SERVE 4. FORT LARNED

Breeders’ Cup

Classic$5 Million - Grade 1

StatS & tREnDS Division Debut: 1984 Favorites: Win 29% In-The-Money 64% Average Winning Payoffs $2 Win: $29.13 ($20.24 minus ’93 payoff) $1 Exacta: $111.43 $1 Trifecta: $1,915.89 $1 Superfecta: $53,241.39 ($7,551.20 minus ’99 payoff)

Classic at SA Highlight 2009: Zenyatta rallied from last-to-first to notch her 14th consecutive victory without a loss and become the first and only filly or mare to win the Classic.

KnOW tHiS Of the 5 Classics held at Santa Anita, 3 have been won by Cal.-based horses and 2 by Europeans.

Twice in the last 4 years, the Classic trifecta has included three horses that were 10-1 odds or more, including last year’s sweep at 14-1, 14-1 and 17-1.

Jockey Mike Smith has piloted the Classic champion twice in the last 3 years. He was second in ’10 and third in ’08.

The Classic pacesetter hasn’t won since Ghostzapper in ‘04.

No horse over age 5 has ever won the Breeders’ Cup Classic.

No active trainer has won more than 1 Breeders’ Cup Classic.

1 1/4 Miles

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BREEDERS’ CUP Wagering guide · and a special Best of the Best page with key horse-of-the-day...

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Transcript of BREEDERS’ CUP Wagering guide · and a special Best of the Best page with key horse-of-the-day...