Breaking Waters, the Birth of a New Nile State
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Transcript of Breaking Waters, the Birth of a New Nile State
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Breaking Waters: The Birth of a New Nile State
.
STEPS Centre Water SeminarBrighton, 22 February 2011
Ana Elisa CascãoStockholm International Water Institute – SIWI (Sweden)
Center of African Studies – ISCTE (Portugal)
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Nile River Basin
THE REGION10 riparian states160 million inhabitantsUnderdeveloped economiesConflict-stricken regionLow levels of regional integration
THE REGION10 riparian states160 million inhabitantsUnderdeveloped economiesConflict-stricken regionLow levels of regional integration
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Nile Basin Hydropolitics
• Uneven distribution
• Inequitable utilisation
• Water = Politics• Water = National Security• Water = Sovereignty
• Power asymmetries• Hydro-Hegemony
• Problematic water agreements
• Past: conflicts• Water-Sharing:
political priority
SECURITISATION
HYDRO-SOVEREIGNTY COOPERATION
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Nile Basin Political Economy pre-2011
Egypt:‘Hydraulic state’ still expandingMonopoly of the Nile watersStronger and more diversified economyMonolithic and stable political systemSupport of international community
Upstream:Agriculture-based economies (rainfed)Weaker but growing economiesShadow of conflicts still presentChanging geopolitics
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Nile Basin Political Economy pre-2011
Changing realpolitik: new geopolitical actors, corridors, dynamics, ...
Changing realpolitik: new geopolitical actors, corridors, dynamics, ...
‘Land grabbing’: Growing economic interest for Nile natural resources
‘Land grabbing’: Growing economic interest for Nile natural resources
Regional integration:Towards economic
multilaterism
Regional integration:Towards economic
multilaterism
Unilateralism:Unilateral hydraulic
development
Unilateralism:Unilateral hydraulic
development
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Hydropolitics pre-2011
Official ‘diad’
UpstreamBloc
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2010: Cooperation and changing power relations
Trojan Horse of upstreamers
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2011:‘Revolutions’ in the making in the Nile Basin
Velvet divorce in Sudan
Popular uprising in Egypt
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Southern Sudan: the 11th Nile riparian
Border demarcation (as 1956)
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...where the White Nile bends
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Southern Sudan: the political process
the post-referendum negotiations
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Nile Waters: What is in it for Southern Sudan?
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A midstream or an upstream riparian?
Jonglei Canal
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When Oil or Water politics mix
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Meanwhile.... in northern Sudan• Windown of opportunity for the end of ‘Nile Valley Unit’• Back to the origins: irrigation!
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Egypt, revolution and Nile
• No major changes in internal Nile politics, image, discourse• Possible positive change in foreign policy – ‘between equals’• Negative change also possible: a return to hydraulic nationalism
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Egypt vs. Upstream: power is relational
• Egypt, the stable hegemon: is now past history
• Upstreamers and the Sudan(s) might take advantage of Egypt’s current weakness to promote a tipping point in the Nile hydropolitics
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Crystal Ball
• Southern Sudan: might become the kingmaker in the upstream- downstream Nile hydropolitics
• Northern Sudan: a pure midstream riparian• Egypt: potential for new foreign policy in the long-term• Today: upstreamers might be already taking a shortcut and
speeding change in the Nile Basin
• What occurs when the counter-hegemonic riparians get stronger and the hegemon weaker: the transformation, decline or end of the hegemonic configuration?
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Thank [email protected]