Brazil’s Agenda 2018 The companies’ perspectives and ... companies’ perspectives and...
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Brazil’s Agenda 2018The companies’ perspectives and strategies for a decisive year full of transformationsDecember 2017
Contents
Brazil’s Agenda 2018 3Key findings 4
Survey sample 5
Performance 7Results expectations 8
Sectors and regions 9
Impacts 10Local 11
International 12
Investments 13Consistent increase 14
Sectors 15
Strategies 16
Government contributions 17
Capitalization 18Sources of funds 19
Reasons 20
Management 21Management priorities 22
Implemented initiatives 23
People and tecnology 24Human capital 25
Contributions 26
Disruptions 27
Section title divider slide
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Brazil’s Agenda 2018
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Key findings
Performance expectations
• Sales, revenue and investments growth
Factors of greater business impact
• Infrastructure investments
• Reforms (tax and social security)
Reasons to invest
• Opportunity related to the company’s business
• Estimate of recovery of the economic activity
Expected investments
• Release of new products or services
• Replacement of machinery, equipments and facilities
Capitalization
• Retail banks and Brazilian Development Bank as main sources of funds
• Continuity of IPOs resumption Human capital
• Increase in the number of employees
• Maintenance of benefits and increased training Technology
• Relatively unaware about digital transformation movements
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Participation per region
Northeast 8%
Southeast 70%
South 18%
Midwest and North 4%
R$1.779 trillionin revenues (represents 26% of the estimated Brazilian GDP for 2017)
750 participating companies
71% of respondents are board members,presidents, vice presidents,superintendents or directors
Survey sample
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are foreign controlled
are family-run companies
Have decentralized control
29% 55% 21%
Survey sample
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12
10
9
64
45
5
6
6
67 7
Technology and telecommunications services Provision of services to companies Agribusiness, food and beverage Health, education, water and sanitation services Financial activities Machinery, equipments and metallurgy Construction and construction services Pharmaceutical and chemical industry Consumer goods Retail / Wholesale Oil, gas, mining and electricity Vehicles and auto parts Transport and logistics services Other manufacturing1
Sector composition (%)
1 Textile and footwear; Pulp and paper; Editorial and graphic design
Performance
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Results expectations
Estimated net revenue growth (average of responses)
14.8% Between 2016
and 2017
19% Between 2017
and 2018
13.2% is, on average, the profit margin expected by the organizations interviewed for the 2017 closing
Despite the challenges of the economy, the companies participating in the survey estimate a growth of 14.8% in their net revenue for the 2017 closing.
For 2018, the expectation of increased sales is even higher, reaching 19% – a result that suggests a market optimism about next year.
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Sectors and regions
Estimated net revenue growth per sector (average of responses)
Selected sectorsBetween
2016 and 2017Between
2017 and 2018
Financial activities 17.3% 27%
Business services 9.4% 21%
Construction and construction services 13.0% 20%
Machinery and equipments 4.3% 18%
Agribusiness, food and beverages 13.8% 17%
Regional highlightsCompanies of the Northeast Region estimate an increase of 23% in net revenue in 2018 over the previous year – almost 10 percentage points above the 13.4% expected by these organizations for 2017 in relation to 2016, and well above the average of other regions of Brazil.
Impacts
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Local
Events with positive impact on business in 2018 (% of respondents; multiple responses)
Increase in infrastructure investments
Tax reform
Social security reform
Presidential election in Brazil
93
84
70
43
The business community estimates that the country’s structural issues, such as investments in infrastructure and reforms, will be more relevant than the political scenario.
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International
30%of participating companies have debts in foreign currency
Events with negative impact on business in 2018 (% of respondents; multiple responses)
Increase in interest rates in the United States
Slowdown of the Chinese economy
New East Asian conflicts
Exit of the United Kingdom from the EU
Independence of Catalonia
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33
24
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Investments
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Investments
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Consistent increase
Estimate of increase in investments (average of responses)
11.8% Between
2016 and 2017
15.8% Between
2017 and 2018
Reasons to invest*
74%Opportunities related to the company’s business
Estimate of recovery of the economic activity
Expectations of drop in the basic interest rate
63%
20%
* Among 85% of companies intending to make investments in 2018
In 2018, the resumption of investments is on the radar of organizations: while for the 2017 closing the companies predicted an increase of 11.8% in contributions, for 2018, they project a growth of 15.8% over the previous year.
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Estimate of increase in investments by sector (average of responses)
Selected sectorsBetween
2016 and 2017Between
2017 and 2018
Oil, gas, mining and electricity 21% 32%
Pharmaceutical and chemical industry 1% 15%
Construction and construction services 1% 11%
Sectors
Infrastructure-related segments – such as oil, gas, mining, energy and construction – are among those that can receive more investments in 2018.
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Strategies
Investments foreseen for 2018 (% of respondents; multiple responses)
Release new products/services
Replace machinery, equipment and facilities
Expand the points of sale
Expand the current industrial parks
Acquire another company
Acquire products or trademarks from other companies
Open new industrial units
5645
4040
1917
1614
1413
95
86
Among the respondents of this edition of the survey Among the respondents of the 2016 edition of the survey
The survey identified a bet on the growth of consumption and, consequently, on the continuity of a gradual upturn in the economy. 56% of companies predict releasing new products or services, an increase of 11 percentage points compared with the 45% that indicated this action in the 2016 edition of the survey.
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Government contributions
Highways, which influence the companies’ logistics in terms of product distribution and purchase of inputs, is the sector that most entrepreneurs believe that should receive government investments. Following it, are investments in education, influencing workforce qualification and contributing to improvement of productivity and efficiency.
Sectors that should receive more government investments
Highways Education and technical training
Electric energy Ports Urbanization works
Capitalization
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Sources of funds
How companies will capitalize in 2018
Retailbanks
BrazilianDevelopment
Bank
Contributionfrom the
controlling group
Contributionfrom owners
Contribution from investment funds
10 companies plan to go public on the Stock Exchange in 2018
8 companies, among the participating organizations of the 2016 edition of the study, responded that they intended to go public in 2017
8 IPOs were carried out in 2017, according to Securities and Exchange Commission of Brazil** Includes BR Distribuidora’s IPO, on December 14th
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Reasons
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Companies plan to capitalize in 2018 with the expectation of...(% of respondents; multiple responses – chose up to 3 priorities)*
Best results for the company
Recovery of the economic activity in Brazil
Lower interest rates
Holding of public concessions
Greater liquidity in the global financial market
Greater liquidity in the Brazilian stock market
51
33
8
6
5
* Among 43% of companies that want to capitalize in 2018
Management
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Management priorities Companies’ priorities for 2018 (% of respondents; multiple responses – chose up to 5 priorities)*
Process management
Financial management
Budget management
Marketing and communication management
Risk and internal control management
Information technology management
Corporate governance structure
Compliance management
Cyber security
Corporate education
Internal audit
External audit
Crisis management
Social responsibility
Environmental management
Transparency mechanisms
Supervisory Board
53
50
41
35
33
32
27
26
17
17
14
12
11
10
9
7
5
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Implemented initiatives
Level of adoption of practices by companies (% of respondents; multiple responses)
External audit
Financial management
Budget management
Internal audit
Information technology management
Marketing and communication management
Social responsibility
Transparency mechanisms
Environmental management
Process management
Corporate governance structure
Supervisory Board
Compliance management
Cyber security
Risk and internal control management
Corporate education
Crisis management
58 10 5 27
52 40 5 3
45 38 10 7
36 25 11 28
35 48 9 8
29 40 16 15
29 28 15 28
28 30 14 28
27 24 12 37
26 47 18 9
25 30 20 25
25 9 5 61
24 27 19 30
21 31 18 30
20 40 16 24
15 28 18 39
13 23 14 50
Fully implemented Implemented, but requires improvements Under implementation Not implemented
In recent years, organizations were already making adjustments in their structure and processes to deal with the economy’s challenges. The trend is that the constant reinvention of control practices, transparency, financial management, technology and corporate governance continue so that companies can adapt to the new cycle.
People and tecnology
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Human capital
41% of the respondents expect to increase the number of employees, a rise of 15 percentage points compared to the 26% of companies that had this expectation for 2017 evaluated in the 2016 edition of the survey
81% will maintain the current employee benefits
47% will maintain the number of employees
45% will increase investments in training for
employees
42% consider
replacement for more qualified professionals
21% consider
replacing staff to reduce costs
12% estimate to reduce the number of employees
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Contributions
3% of revenues is the amount the organizations interviewed, on average, invest in technology
In total, that is more than
R$ 58.9 billion in contributions in this area, among the companies participating in the survey
Sectors that most invest in technology
Businessservices
Technology and telecommunications services
Oil, gas, miningand electricity
Financial services
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DisruptionsMore than one-third of the organizations interviewed is unaware about some of the key disruptive technologies. Despite this, many of these new technologies should receive investments from organizations over the next two years.
Knowledge and implementation of new technologies
Blockchain Smart cities
Exponential technologies
Digital health
Industry 4.0
Autonomous platforms Analytics
Augmented virtual reality
Bitcoin Internet of Things
3D Printing
Cyber security
Unaware 35% 35% 35% 32% 31% 30% 24% 23% 19% 18% 14% 11%
Think about investingIn the next two years 10% 7% 13% 9% 17% 12% 16% 11% 5% 19% 7% 17%
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