Brazil Half-Full Half-Empty

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Presentation at Columbia University (NY) - International Affairs Center, Brazilian Studies Program

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  • 1. Brazil:is the glass half fullor half empty?

2.

  • Glasses
  • The emergent middle class
  • Conclusions

3. 4. Do you see a young lady or an old woman in this picture?It depends onhowyou look at it! 5. Do you see a duck or a rabbit in this picture? You can seeboth ! 6. 7. 8. 9. Depending on the glasses you use, you can better see reality

  • Within the water
  • In the darkness
  • Very far
  • Very close

10. Brazil 2004:is the glass half full or half empty? 11. My bookCopo Pela Metadeaims at:1.) seeing reality by combining different kinds of glasses, and2.) to work out an archaeology of the future in order to antecipate trends and create scenarios 12. Policy Making

  • guidance on social and economic development promotion
  • guidance on marketing strategy and tactics

BusinessThey share some point of view but use differente kinds of glasses, and many times they see different kinds of realities 13. Glasses for policy making used by governments, multilateral development organizations focus on

  • Demography:
  • vital and social statistics, such as births, deaths,diseases, marriages, etc., of populations.

14.

  • Demography

CENSUS 15. Glasses for business organizations

  • Marketing Intelligence and Research:
  • vital and social knowledge on the different lyfe styles and consumption patterns of society and individual

16.

  • Marketing Intelligence and Research

17. More sophisticated methodologies and tools

  • Focal group
  • Creative segmentation
  • Geomarketing (Geographical Information Systems)
  • Adhoc high techtools for scrutinizing peoples diverse life and consumption styles

18. Anlise nacional/regional Anlise de rea de influncia Anlisede ponto 19. Rio de Janeiro, 10 julho 2001 (Jornal do Brasil) 20. baseada em informaes nos Censos de 70, 80 e 91 Fundao Getlio Vargas divulga pesquisa Mapa do Fim da Fome Temos 50 milhes de miserveis (29.3% da populao brasileira tem renda mensal inferior a 80 reais per capita). 21. 22.

  • Governments
  • Multilateral organizations
  • NGOs

REALITY DEVELOPMENT MINDSET POLICY ACTION 23. Are outperforming businesses which

  • Target the bottom of pyramid (bop) segments of the marketplace
  • Developed successful business design oriented for clients at the bop

24. 25. 26. 28 lojas no Rio de Janeiro 2 milhes de clientes ativos no Leader Card 27. Health insurance for CD strata in the states of RJ and SP: increased the number of clients from 250 thousand to400 thousand over the last 3 years 28. How neighborhood supermarket are much more productive in terms of m2 profitability 29. 30. 31. 32.

  • Aparelho de TV a cores:
  • 97% domiclios tm
  • 4 anos de uso em mdia

33. SectorialProduction Sectorial Marketing Analysis Income Market penetration of goods and service 34. SectorialProduction Sectorial Marketing Analysis Income Market penetration of goods and service 35. Income Consumption What is the picture when one brings the things together? 36. Income

  • 48% does have formal labour relationship
  • 52% does not have formal or consistent income

The issue of the INFORMAL ECONOMY and howit mess up the Census conclusions Poor knowledge 37.

  • 48% does have formal labour relationship
  • 52% does not have formal or consistent income

Better knowledge about the different segments of thesociety as a whole Consumption and Life Styles 38. Brasil in the 70s 39.

  • Affluents
  • Middle class
  • Poor
  • Deprived
  • 300 thousand households
  • 2,5 million households
  • 12,5 million households

70 million inhabitants 15 households Consumer society Out of Consumer Society ------------------------- Poverty line ------------------------------ 40.

  • Ricos
  • Classe mdia
  • 300 mil domiclios
  • 2,5 milhes de domiclios

The major beneficiaries of the Economic Miracle of the 70s

  • National Housing Funding System
  • Public free Universities
  • Jobs in state-owned corporations
  • Mechanisms for protecting of savingsagainst inflation (indexation)

The subsidies which just a few people are aware of... 41. Major Forces of Transformation post 70s

  • Acceleration of the urbanization process
  • Acceleration of the industrialization process
  • The Civic Revolution
  • Economic estabilization
  • Globalization

42. Major Forces of Transformation post 70s

  • ACCELERATION OF URBANIZATION PROCESS

Grfico 4.1 pg 66 43. Major Forces of Transformation post 70s

  • ACCELERATION OF INDUSTRIALIZATION PROCESS
  • 1950: rural economy 1950 ==> early 90s:8o. GDP

44. Major Forces of Transformation post 70s

  • THE CIVIC REVOLUTION
  • amazing increase of the social mobility
  • from military dictatorship ==> democratic system
  • 222.000 NGOs
  • Free elections
  • Free press
  • Ongoing improving of the democratic-civic institutions and system
  • A new civic mindset: for the very first time in History the ordinary man has a feeling that playing by rules seems to be worthwhile

45. 46. Major Forces of Transformation post 70s

  • GLOBALIZATION

47. Brazil 2000 The emergent middle class is reaching a critical massa 48. 178 million inhabitants 46,5 million household Citizen Tax payer Consumer Client is king! 49. 50. 51. The New Brazilian Middle Class Former Middle Class The New Middle Class Emergent MiddleClass 52. The economic estabilization repositioned almost overnight the life style and the consumption patterns of the popular strata in terms of

  • Purchasing power
  • Purchasing habits
  • Capacity to plan

53. The CDE share of national consumption (76% households)

  • 64% of food
  • 58% of personal care and household products
  • 58% of appliances
  • 51% of vestuary and shoes
  • 50% of household construction reform
  • 43% of personal services
  • 64% of pharmaceuticals

54. The message for the business players is easy: No one is leader without being leader with CDE strata 55. Changes in household patterns

  • Family average number of members has decresased dramatically
  • Improvement of the women social and economic condition
  • Two breadwinners instead of one...

56. The society as a whole has been striving to improve its life not only after the Real Plan implementation. 57. 58. 59. 60. 61. Penetrao eletroeletrnico 2000 62. Fonte: ANEPE/ABIPEME/IBOPE 1998 63. Corporations are le a r n ing to develop a business design more oriented to the needs of CDE strata 64. Government wont be able to deliver good quality services to everyone The truth that people are starting to realize is... 65. A and B are already paying for education and health services(although they still have non-paid university what means that.55 public governmental university draw 70% of the budget of the Education Ministry) . 66. CDE are in a hurry to improve their life 67. Exemplo: Educao A/B C D/E Distribuio da Populao Economicamente Ativa (milhes) por Grupos de Anos de Estudo eClasse Econmica 68. Fonte: PNAD 2001/IBGE 69. Fornecedores Produo Logstica Canal distribuio Esgota-se o ciclo da Economia de Produtos 70. Valor Agregado Produo Logstica O cliente quer solues

  • Preo
  • Conforto
  • Convenincia
  • Atendimento
  • Economia de tempo
  • Qualidade
  • Relacionamento

Canal Distribuio Economia de Servios:o famoso Foco no Cliente 71. Transporte urbano 72. Conclusions

  • Lack of vision the need to integrate business and goverment knowledge to forge a new development consensus
  • Opportunities (infrastruture, education, health, public services, etc)
  • Challenges

73. www.ricardoneves.com.br