3. 4. Do you see a young lady or an old woman in this picture?It depends onhowyou look at it! 5. Do you see a duck or a rabbit in this picture? You can seeboth ! 6. 7. 8. 9. Depending on the glasses you use, you can better see reality
10. Brazil 2004:is the glass half full or half empty? 11. My bookCopo Pela Metadeaims at:1.) seeing reality by combining different kinds of glasses, and2.) to work out an archaeology of the future in order to antecipate trends and create scenarios 12. Policy Making
BusinessThey share some point of view but use differente kinds of glasses, and many times they see different kinds of realities 13. Glasses for policy making used by governments, multilateral development organizations focus on
CENSUS 15. Glasses for business organizations
17. More sophisticated methodologies and tools
18. Anlise nacional/regional Anlise de rea de influncia Anlisede ponto 19. Rio de Janeiro, 10 julho 2001 (Jornal do Brasil) 20. baseada em informaes nos Censos de 70, 80 e 91 Fundao Getlio Vargas divulga pesquisa Mapa do Fim da Fome Temos 50 milhes de miserveis (29.3% da populao brasileira tem renda mensal inferior a 80 reais per capita). 21. 22.
REALITY DEVELOPMENT MINDSET POLICY ACTION 23. Are outperforming businesses which
24. 25. 26. 28 lojas no Rio de Janeiro 2 milhes de clientes ativos no Leader Card 27. Health insurance for CD strata in the states of RJ and SP: increased the number of clients from 250 thousand to400 thousand over the last 3 years 28. How neighborhood supermarket are much more productive in terms of m2 profitability 29. 30. 31. 32.
33. SectorialProduction Sectorial Marketing Analysis Income Market penetration of goods and service 34. SectorialProduction Sectorial Marketing Analysis Income Market penetration of goods and service 35. Income Consumption What is the picture when one brings the things together? 36. Income
The issue of the INFORMAL ECONOMY and howit mess up the Census conclusions Poor knowledge 37.
Better knowledge about the different segments of thesociety as a whole Consumption and Life Styles 38. Brasil in the 70s 39.
70 million inhabitants 15 households Consumer society Out of Consumer Society ------------------------- Poverty line ------------------------------ 40.
The major beneficiaries of the Economic Miracle of the 70s
The subsidies which just a few people are aware of... 41. Major Forces of Transformation post 70s
42. Major Forces of Transformation post 70s
Grfico 4.1 pg 66 43. Major Forces of Transformation post 70s
44. Major Forces of Transformation post 70s
45. 46. Major Forces of Transformation post 70s
47. Brazil 2000 The emergent middle class is reaching a critical massa 48. 178 million inhabitants 46,5 million household Citizen Tax payer Consumer Client is king! 49. 50. 51. The New Brazilian Middle Class Former Middle Class The New Middle Class Emergent MiddleClass 52. The economic estabilization repositioned almost overnight the life style and the consumption patterns of the popular strata in terms of
53. The CDE share of national consumption (76% households)
54. The message for the business players is easy: No one is leader without being leader with CDE strata 55. Changes in household patterns
56. The society as a whole has been striving to improve its life not only after the Real Plan implementation. 57. 58. 59. 60. 61. Penetrao eletroeletrnico 2000 62. Fonte: ANEPE/ABIPEME/IBOPE 1998 63. Corporations are le a r n ing to develop a business design more oriented to the needs of CDE strata 64. Government wont be able to deliver good quality services to everyone The truth that people are starting to realize is... 65. A and B are already paying for education and health services(although they still have non-paid university what means that.55 public governmental university draw 70% of the budget of the Education Ministry) . 66. CDE are in a hurry to improve their life 67. Exemplo: Educao A/B C D/E Distribuio da Populao Economicamente Ativa (milhes) por Grupos de Anos de Estudo eClasse Econmica 68. Fonte: PNAD 2001/IBGE 69. Fornecedores Produo Logstica Canal distribuio Esgota-se o ciclo da Economia de Produtos 70. Valor Agregado Produo Logstica O cliente quer solues
Canal Distribuio Economia de Servios:o famoso Foco no Cliente 71. Transporte urbano 72. Conclusions