BRAND SOUTH AFRICA

Draft Research Report

The age of Disruption, Convergence,

Confusion, and new Conflicts

Shared with WEF Roundatable Discussion on

4IR

Dr Petrus de Kock

General Manager - Researcg

7 March 20191

Draft Research ReportThe age of Disruption, Convergence, Confusion, and new Conflicts

Context

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Draft Research ReportThe age of Disruption, Convergence, Confusion, and new Conflicts

1. Introductory comments

2. The age of Disruption - What is the so-called 4th Industrial

Revolution?

3. The Convergence of the virtual and the organic

4. Blurred social horizons and the emergence of Confusion, New

battlefronts and Conflicts

5. New conflicts and battlefronts

6. Lessons from the Global Financial Crisis

7. Critical questions and challenges for South Africa

The age of Disruption, Convergence, Confusion, and new

Conflicts

● This briefing is structured according to the four key terms that appear

in the title. Essentially the objective is to provide an orientation to

the notion of the 4th industrial revolution, while teasing out some

possible implications for South Africa as a developing society.

● In as much as the progress of human civilisation since the dawn of

time is linked to the development of tools, techniques, technologies

and systems that can support civilisations, and societies, these

developments are often not unambiguous. It should neither be

assumed that technology or science is at any level neutral.

● This briefing aims to cut through some of the noise and hype around

technological development to identify the potentially dangerous

consequences, and benefits, hiding in the detail of the current path of

technological development as articulated in the idea of the 4th

industrial revolution.

4IR

Basic assumptions of the 4th industrial revolution

Advent of so-called pervasive computing

Pervasive computing aims to integrate two realms of human-machine interactions

These are: Merging/convergence of Information technology with Operational technology

Who is in, and who is out?

● Klaus Schwab argues that the fourth industrial revolution is,

‘…characterised by a fusion of technologies that is blurring the

lines between the physical, digital, and biological spheres…

Moreover, it is disrupting almost every industry in every country.

And the breath and depth of these changes herald the

transformation of entire systems of production, management, and

governance.’

● This means that while these technologies may have significant

positive implications from an efficiency, productivity, and creative

perspective, the real impact will be at the level of human

development, job security, and ultimately the state - due in large

part to questions of inequality and permanent unemployment

faced by those who are not skilled for 21st century technologies.

Essentially it means: In this new economy, old skills won’t help.

Workers who don’t have the higher-order skills will get left out.

New battlefronts

Stemming from the above it is clear that while a host of economic benefits can accrue

from 4th industrial revolution technologies, the hidden cost of this will lie in the realm

of human agency and society. Several proponents of these technologies argue that

robotics, artificial intelligence, bio-engineering, nanotechnology, and 3D printing alone

stand not only to revolutionise the economy, but is altering human identity.

Social battlefronts

Inequality & increased societal conflict for access to basic resources;

Social media and the potential of socio-political mobilisation & manipulation;

Shedding of labour and the ultimate redundancy of human labour demand;

Alienation of individuals and communities due to increased adoption of Artificial

Intelligence systems, robotics, and bio-engineering that could create a micro-class

of technologically advanced, physically augmented humans (e.g. the Cyborg);

Exacerbated identity conflicts due to ease of disrupting societies via Internet and

virtual manipulation;

Increased surveillance and the breakdown of notions of ‘privacy’.

Political/security battlefronts

● Rising inequality poses a direct challenge to polities in terms of providing social security, and enabling environments for job creation and societal progress;

● New technologies deployed in battlefronts such as Unmanned Aerial Vehicles, Robotic weapons platforms have already in the space of one decade revolutionised warfare with major human ethical and moral ramifications;

● Information warfare, information security and the virtualisation of conflict. In this regard the stories of Wikileaks, and cases such as Edward Snowden, hacking attacks, the utilisation of virtual platforms to facilitate terror attacks and multi-national crime syndicates are all undermining traditional notions of territorial integrity and state/human security;

● Network centric warfare and the advance of so-called 4th and 5th generation warfare theories that clearly show the extent to which new technologies have already changed the nature of warfare and how these increasingly create new battlefronts states have to contend with.

Critical questions and challenges for South Africa

As a country with several social challenges the 4th Industrial

Revolution poses daunting challenges;

For example, in the SA mining sector, questions pertaining to the

automation of underground operations often get caught between

the economic benefits and productivity improvements that come

with it, over and against the human interest in job security;

Automation in industry, mining, business process, logistics and a

host of other sectors have led to deep social tensions in societies

where it has become evident that increased automation,

roboticisation, and the replacement of humans by basic or

intelligent machines lead to the permanent loss of jobs;

Critical questions and challenges for South Africa

The Challenge Ahead

While extensive benefits and new opportunities

can open up as a result of the blurring and

integration of Information and Operational

technology, as a society with specific human

development, employment, and skills

development objectives, new disruptive

technologies can have severe unintended long-

term consequences.

AWARD WINNING NATION BRAND

Award winning research ● Brand South Africa won two awards for its domestic

perceptions research at the 2018 Southern African

Market Research Association conference. Over-all best

research award & the Kantar Innovation award.

● As winner, in 2019, Brand SA has been invited to host a

workshop at this years conference – it will be on the

same topic discussed today

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Highlightingten unique behavioural groups

Independent Humanists

Positive Enablers

Activist Supporters

Proud Democrats

Cautious Optimists

Accountability Advocates

Supporters of Heritage

Celebrators of Achievement

Uncritical Loyalists

The Politically Discontent

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SAMRA Workshop

Southern African Market Research Association Annual

Conference

Brand South Africa workshop on 4IR and its implications

for the Nation Brand & research industry – Theme: The

age of Disruption, Convergence, Confusion & new

Conflicts

● 15-16 May, Johannesburg

● www.samra.co.za

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Prepared by Brand SA Research

Contact:

Dr Petrus de Kock, GM – Research

petrusd@brandsouthafrica.com

Leigh-Gail Petersen, Research Manager

leigh@brandsouthafrica.com

Readers are welcome to use the data

contained in this report for their own

purposes provided they acknowledge the

source as: Brand South Africa, Research &

Nation Brand Performance Presentation,

October 2015, available at:

www.brandsouthafrica.com

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