BRAINPOoL Final Conference: Towards a Beyond GDP Narrative

Beyond GDP: From Measurement to Politics and Policy

Development of a compelling narrative

Paris 24 March 2014

1. The challenge

2. Labour markets, green economy and the narrative

3. Theoretical underpinning

4. Next steps

A narrative creates appeal and credibility

• A good narrative wins votes – it has to have appeal but also give credibility to a party’s programme – by also explaining

• So Reagan’s narrative had appeal and credibility

– Cut taxes (direct voter appeal)

– We would be better off if we got the government off our backs (explanation)

– Based on a neo-liberal version of neo-classical economics (theory, credibility)

• It is easy but not enough to attack this kind of thing – we need a Beyond GDP narrative of this type and we don’t have one

• ‘Wellbeing’ and ‘sustainability’ associated with what have been at best politically weak messages (happiness, constraints)

• So what is electorally appealing about new policies?

• And what kind of theory will give this credibility?

1. The challenge



4. Next steps

The ‘GDP’ approach to labour market policy…

GrowthEfficient Labour markets

Jobs

…is associated with a slogan summarising the narrative


Jobs

Jobs and growth

The ‘beyond GDP’ approach aims to maximise wellbeing


Jobs

Good Jobs(security, work life balance, conditions, pay etc)

…and recognises there is sometimes a trade-off


Jobs


It is difficult to optimise


Jobs


So the aim is to create the conditions to soften trade-off


Jobs


Economic structures and norms

…requiring a full range of government actions…


Jobs



Active government – the ‘entrepreneur-ial state’

…and an alternative narrative


Jobs



Active government – the ‘entrepreneur-ial state’

Jobs and growth

The state securing good jobs

Can this convince?

• We are not there yet – growth is still seen as the sign of economic policy success

• However…

– jobs always feature in polling as a top concern, and

– some (UK) evidence of shift in focus from growth to whether life is getting better

• Potentially opening space for

– median real wages

– other job related drivers of wellbeing…security, equality (fairness), decent living standards for all, good work

• And the broader message:

– markets deliver growth but growth doesn’t deliver these good things – so we need collective (government) action….

As sometimes framed, the green economy problem is unsolvable

xMaximise wellbeing by maximising aggregate consumption

Live within environmentallimits

There are two strategies dealing with this – green growth…

A green economy

Maintain growth and jobs by investing in the green economy


…and decoupling wellbeing from consumption

A green economy



Maintain wellbeing growth but restrict or change aggregate consumption growth

Both involve lower/changed aggregate consumption vs b.a.u.

A green economy



Maintain wellbeing growth but restrict or change aggregate consumption growth

So other elements have to balance consumption in the narrative…

For example…

• FAIRNESS

– Those who can afford the burden pay their share

For example…

• FAIRNESS


• SECURITY

– Reducing environmental risk – but also jobs, housing, income, health

– Language of “securing” and “protecting”

For example…

• FAIRNESS


• SECURITY



• WEALTH

– Collective and individual; linked to security – and basis for quality of life

– Language of “building” and “improving”

For example…

• FAIRNESS


• SECURITY



• WEALTH

– Collective and individual; linked to security – and basis for quality of life

– Language of “building” and “improving”

• QUALITY OF LIFE

– Now and in the future

– Based on public engagement to define the important, therefore local

1. The challenge



4. Next steps

There is a wealth of theory that can be drawn on – for example…

• Outcomes– Subjective wellbeing data as a guide to what to aim for (Wellbeing science)

– Worker interests – including fulfilment (eg Marxists)

– Social relations (Communitarians)

– The resources and capabilities needed to function (Capabilities approach)

• Explanations– The natural tendency of markets to create inequality (eg Galbraith)

– The natural tendency of financial markets to create instability (eg Minsky)

– Institutional power relations rather than markets as key to explaining (Institutionalists)

– Land as a factor of production (Ecological economists)

– Social reproduction which occurs in the home (Feminist political economists)

• What we do to get there– Government as the legitimate and effective driver of outcomes (Social democrats)

But more work needed of course – both to synthesise and create theory

1. The challenge



4. Next steps

Next steps

• Democratic renewal– Work with people – including at local level – to define what is important, eg jobs– Link to work with parliamentarians (participative with representative democracy)

• Identify policies– What is needed to deliver what is important? How is this new?

• Communications– Different messages and language for different audiences – same fundamentals– Positive messages reflecting what is important

• Indicators– Part of the narrative: research effectiveness of alternatives (index/dashboard)– Statisticians to develop their role as agents of change

• Business– Establish the business version of the Beyond GDP narrative

• Link to theory of the economy– Synthesise existing work (eg how will the economy work at low/zero growth?)– Test starting axioms (neo-classical vs positive economy)

• Progress reports – (eg mapping of the 28 EU governments)

BRAINPOoL Final Conference: Towards a Beyond GDP Narrative

Education

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