Brain Waves - 2016 ASU GSV Summit Keynote
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Transcript of Brain Waves - 2016 ASU GSV Summit Keynote
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BRAIN WAVES
7th Annual ASU GSV Summit
April 18, 2016
Michael Moe, CFA Co-Founder, GSV @michaelmoe
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2010 Mission: To Accelerate
Innova!on in Educa!on and Op!mize Impact
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2010
300 A!endees
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2010
35 Companies
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3,000+ A!endees
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350+ Companies
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Sold Out 5th Year in a Row
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April 2010…
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iPad Released April
2010…
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First UBER Ride S!ll 2
Months Away
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Snapchat July, 2011
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8 Billion Videos Per
Day
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Series A 7 Months A"er First
Summit
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2015
80 Million Nights Booked
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$1.6 Billion Series E
$25 Billion Market Value
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EdTech VC Investment
$550 Million
2010
Source: GSV Advisors
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EdTech VC Investment
$550 Million
$2.1 Billion
2010
2015
31% CAGR
Source: GSV Advisors
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Weapons of Mass Instruction
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KNEWTON Founded 2008
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10+ Million Students
16+ Billion Recommenda"ons
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+
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Pass Rates 17%
+
Source: Knewton
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Dropouts 56%
+
Source: Knewton
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Technology Vendors
2010
Un!tled 1
5
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Technology Vendors
Today
Un!tled 1
130
5
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2U Founded 2008
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15+ Partners
$1+ Billion Tui"on Generated
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CLASS DOJO Founded 2011
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50+ Million Users
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REMIND Founded 2011
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35+ Million Users 3/4 U.S. Schools
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CLEVER Founded 2012
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20+ Million Users
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2011 160,000 Students,
Stanford AI MOOC
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4 Million Students
168 Countries
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COURSERA Founded 2012
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18+ Million Students
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2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
160K 1.5M
10M
18M
35M
194% CAGR
MOOC Enrollments
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Map oft the colonies
United States 1800
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A!endees
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“As GM goes, so goes the na!on.”
— CHARLES WILSON CEO, General Motors (1953)
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$0
$45
$90
$135
$180
1964 1969 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009
GM Market Value, 1964-2009
Source: Capital IQ
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Moore’s Law
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2000 2015
$0.04
$7.03
Cost of Compu!ng (per MM transistors)
98% decline
Source: Deloitte
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2000 2015
$0.02
$4.77
Cost of Storage (per GB)
99% decline
Source: Deloitte
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Internet Access: 2000
371 Million
Internet Access:
Source: Gartner, Nielsen, A.T. Kearney, eMarketer, KPCB, GSV Asset Management
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Internet Access: Today
3.1 Billion 3100
371 Million
Internet Access:
Source: Gartner, Nielsen, A.T. Kearney, eMarketer, KPCB, GSV Asset Management
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2000
60 Million
Broadband Access:
Source: Gartner, Nielsen, A.T. Kearney, eMarketer, KPCB, GSV Asset Management
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Today
2.3 Billion2300
60 Million
Broadband Access:
Source: Gartner, Nielsen, A.T. Kearney, eMarketer, KPCB, GSV Asset Management
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2000
180 Million
PC Penetra!on:
Source: Gartner, Nielsen, A.T. Kearney, eMarketer, KPCB, GSV Asset Management
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Today
1.4 Billion 1400
180 Million
PC Penetra!on:
Source: Gartner, Nielsen, A.T. Kearney, eMarketer, KPCB, GSV Asset Management
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Internet Access: 2000
740 Million
Mobile Penetra!on:
Source: Ericsson Mobility Report (2015)
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Internet Access: Today
7 Billion 7000
740 Million
Mobile Penetra!on:
Source: Ericsson Mobility Report (2015)
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Smartphones: 2000
0Source: Ericsson Mobility Report (2015)
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Smartphones: Today
2.6 billionSource: Ericsson Mobility Report (2015)
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App Downloads: 2000
0Source: Forrester
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App Downloads: Today
226 billionSource: Forrester
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Internet Access: 2000
9 Million
Digital Na!ves Workforce:
Source: KPCB, GSV Asset Management
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Internet Access: Today
56 Million
9 Million
Digital Na!ves Workforce:
Source: KPCB, GSV Asset Management
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Global Middle Class: 2000
1.4 Billion
Source: OECD
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Global Middle Class: Today
2.5 Billion +80%
Source: OECD
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College Educa!on (OECD): 2000
14%
Source: OECD
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29% +2x
College Educa!on (OECD): Today
Source: OECD
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50%+ Low Income Students 2000: 4
56%
60%
63%
51%
Source: The Atlantic, Southern Education Foundation, New York Times
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50%+ Low Income Students Today: 20
55%
51%59%
50% 68%
60%
61% 61%
65%
71%
58%
51%
50%52%
53%
58%60%58%
59%
51%
Source: The Atlantic, Southern Education Foundation, New York Times
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40%+ Low Income Students Today: 39
55%
51%59%
50% 68%
60%
61% 61%
65%
71%
58%
51%
50%52%
53%
58%60%58%
59%
51%
49%
45%
47%
42%
40%
44%
48% 45%
40%49%
47%40%
48%
43%
46%43%
41%
42%
40%
Source: The Atlantic, Southern Education Foundation, New York Times
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Low-Income Students 5x More Likely to
Drop out of High School
Source: American Psychological Association
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Source: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, National Education Association
Dropouts 8x More Likely to
Go to Prison
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Source: National Education Association
80% U.S. Prison Popula"on High School Dropouts
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400
450
500
550
600
< $20K $40K - $60K $80K - $100K $120K - $140K $160K - $200K
Reading Math Wri!ng
SAT Scores and Family Income
Source: College Board
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0%
19%
38%
56%
75%
No College Community College Compe!!ve Most Compe!!ve
Enrollment from Top Quar!leEnrollment from Bo#om Quar!le
Locked Out of Elite Colleges
Source: Pew Research Center
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Income Quartile Graduate from CollegeTop 75%
Second 33%
Third 20%
Bottom 8%Source: Pew Research Center
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70% of Poor Americans Never Make it to the Middle Class.
Move to Middle+ Stay Put
70%
30%
Source: Pew Research Center
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30,000 Amazon
Warehouse Robots
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350+ Million Global Manufacturing +
Warehouse Workers
Source: McKinsey, GSV Asset Management
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12 Million U.S. Middle Skills Jobs
Eliminated by 2025
Source: McKinsey
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$7 Trillion Managed by
Robo-Financial Advisors by 2025
Source: Deloitte
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3,000+ Financial
Reports Per QuarterSource: New York Times
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50% Jobs At Risk of Replacement in
20 Years
Source: The Economist, Oxford University
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“Our policy is to hire as many talented computer
engineers as we can find. There aren't
enough people who have these skills today.”
— MARK ZUCKERBERG
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1.2 Million Computer Science
Job Openings by 2020
Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Fortune
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“Data Science — The sexiest job of the 21st
Century.”
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1060
Time
Humans
Knowledge, Skills, Abili!esComputers
We Are Here
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Digital Marke!ng
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Visual Design
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iOS + Android Development
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Data Analy!cs
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Cybersecurity
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Killer Jobs Today… Killed Tomorrow
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1967
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1967
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“We could be looking at a society in which
all the gains in wealth accrue to whoever owns the robots.” — PAUL KRUGMAN
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“The obvious conclusion is that the government will just have to
give these people money.” — SAM ALTMAN
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“New disease… technological
unemployment.” — JOHN MAYNARD
KEYNES, 1930
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Agriculture is our wisest pursuit, because it will in the end contribute most
to real wealth, good morals, and happiness.
— THOMAS JEFFERSON, 1787
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Automa!on Eats Jobs
Farming
Factory
Informa!on
Knowledge
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2x Increase in
GDP Per Capita
Source: US. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
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2x Increase in
Corporate Profits
Source: US. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
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2.5x Increase in
Labor Produc"vity
Source: US. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
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Median Income Stalls in 1967…
$0
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
1970 1980 1990 2000 2015Source: U.S. Census Bureau
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…Decreases for men
$0
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
1970 1980 1990 2000 2015Source: U.S. Census Bureau
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Winner Take All Economy
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Value
Scale
10M Users
1.6B Users
Source: New York Times, GSV Asset Management
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Value
Scale
21% Search
64% Search
Source: Yahoo Finance
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Value
Scale
170M Users
1.1B Users
Source: YouTube, Vimeo
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Value
Scale
$125M Revenue
$107B Revenue
Source: Yahoo Finance, Fortune
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Source: Economic Policy Institute
CEO Compensa!on
$20
$5,015
$10,010
$15,005
$20,000
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Median Income $27K
303x
23x
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Source: Forbes
Major League Baseball
$20
$1,140
$2,260
$3,380
$4,500
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Median Income $27K
MLB Salary $4.3M
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Inequality is the parent of revolu!on. — ARISTOTLE
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Talent is equally distributed by zip
code…
but opportunity is not.
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Our B.H.A.G:
Ensure that every person has an equal opportunity to par!cipate in the future.
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Magic of Silicon Valley =Exponential Ideas
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Auto Industry?
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Annual R&D Spend:
$7.2 Billion
Source: Company Disclosures
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1060Auto Innova"on
Time
Valu
e
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1060Tesla = Exponen!al Innova!on
Time
Valu
e
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ImagiNation
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1060
Time
Valu
eCommunica!on + Collabora!on
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Time
Valu
eTravel + Hospitality
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Energy
Time
Valu
e
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10601055105010451040103510301025102010151010105110-5
Healthcare
Time
Valu
e
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Educa!on Innova!on…
Time
Valu
e
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?
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…Exponen!al Opportunity
OPPORTUNITY GAP
Time
Valu
e
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$27 Trillion U.S. Economic Gains with Basic PISA Improvement
Source: OECD
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$200+ Trillion Global Economic Gains
with Basic PISA Improvement
Source: OECD
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Hollywood Meets
Harvard
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1967 Super Bowl I
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60,000 A!endees
Source: Wikipedia
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$12 Ticket Price
Source: CBS (2016 USD)
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$6 Million Avg. Team Value
Source: CBS (2016 USD)
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$25,000 Avg. Salary
Source: US News & World Report
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2016 Super Bowl 50
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80,000 A!endees
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$1,500 Ticket Price
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167+ Million Remote Viewers
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FREE
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$5 Million Per 30-Second Ad
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$360+ Million Ad Sales
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$2 Billion Avg. Team Value
Source: Forbes
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$2.2 Million Avg. Salary
Source: CNN
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Spor"ng Event
MEDIA MODEL
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Access
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Quality
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Value
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60,000 Ivy+ Enrollment, 1967
Source: University Disclosures
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80,000 Ivy+ Enrollment, Today
Source: University Disclosures
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$15,000 Cost to Graduate, 1967
Source: University Disclosures
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$250,000 Cost to Graduate,
TodaySource: University Disclosures
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138 Million U.S. Higher Ed Gap
Source: NCES, U.S. Census Bureau
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$35 Trillion Price Tag
Source: GSV Asset Management
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Superbowl vs. Ivy League
1967
Valu
e
Super Bowl I
Ivy League
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Superbowl vs. Ivy League
1967
Valu
eSuper
Bowl 50
Ivy League
Today
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media
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mEDia
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magic leap
Magic Leap
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AR/VR Industry
$90 Million
$5.2 Billion
2014
2018
176% CAGR
Source: Statista
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Big Data
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50% Programs
Watched Were Recommended
Source: Company Disclosures
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50% Accuracy
Lung Cancer Diagnosis
Source: The Fourth Industrial Revolution (Klaus Schwab), FortuneSource: IBM
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90% Accuracy
Lung Cancer Diagnosis
Source: The Fourth Industrial Revolution (Klaus Schwab), Fortune
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ADAPTIVE Technology
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ADAPTIVE Technology + DIAGNOSTIC
Technology =
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Personal Robot Tutor
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10,000 Hours of Prac"ce
Makes Perfect
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Healthy
10,000 Steps
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Wealthy
10,000 Dollars
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Wise
10,000 Neurons
Time to Learn!
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10,000 Hours Classroom Time
K-12
Source: U.S. Department of Education
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10,000 Hours Video Games
K-12
Source: U.S. Department of Education
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MEGAWINNERS
Enga
gem
ent
Efficacy
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KaizenEDU
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1/3 Babies Live to 100+
Source: United Kingdom Office of National Statistics (ONS)
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Digital Natives
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64% Would Work for Less than Half at a Job They Love
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15+ Lifetime Careers
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Job Benefits Millennials Value Most
Source: KPCB
#1 Training + Development (22%)
#2 Flexible Hours (19%)
#3 Cash Bonuses (14%)
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Old System, 1900
PLAY LEARN JOB RETIRE
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New System
LEARN
PLAY SCHOOL JOB JOB JOB
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Adaptability
Grit
Cri!cal Thinking
Empathy
Communica!on
Entrepreneurship
Learn to Learn
Skills for an Exponen!al
Economy
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Learn to Learn
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Entrepreneurship
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Communica!on
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Empathy
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Cri!cal Thinking
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Grit
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Adaptability
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Knowledge as a
Currency
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NEWS to Knowledge
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Informa"on
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Knowledge
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Old Knowledge Currency
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Knowledge Por"olio
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4 Minute Mile
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Impossible is not
a fact. It’s an opinion.
— MUHAMMAD ALI
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Imagine what it would look like to “MIND the gap”.
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Imagine what would happen if everybody
had an EQUAL OPPORTUNITY to
par"cipate in the future.
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Imagine how we could use
EXPONENTIAL IDEAS applied to
this challenge.
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Imagine what GREAT looks like.
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DARE TO BE GREAT!!!
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