BRAIN GAIN vs. BRAIN DRAIN: A CASE STUDY OF PAKISTAN Safwan A. Khan, Vaqar Ahmed.
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Transcript of BRAIN GAIN vs. BRAIN DRAIN: A CASE STUDY OF PAKISTAN Safwan A. Khan, Vaqar Ahmed.
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BRAIN GAIN vs. BRAIN DRAIN:
A CASE STUDY OF PAKISTAN
Safwan A. Khan, Vaqar Ahmed
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Migration and Development: Emerging Debates
•Balanced growth theory (Haas, 2012)▫Migration development of human capital▫Reverse transfers of money, knowledge, best
practices, technology etc.
•Asymmetric development theory (Haas, 2012)▫Migration underdevelopment of the
sending country▫Brain drain
•Migration and development: no relationship (Skeldon, 2012)
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The Case of Pakistan• Average growth in annual emigration flows
(1970-2011): 7%
1971
1974
1977
1980
1983
1986
1989
1992
1995
1998
2001
2004
2007
2010
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
450000
500000
Emigrant Numbers
Emigrant Numbers
Year
Em
igra
nt
Nu
mb
er
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Research Approach
• Data▫Pakistan Economic Survey▫World Development Indicators▫Bureau of Emigration & Overseas Employment
• Theory triangulation▫As on previous slide
• Methodological▫Qualitative methods (Key informant interviews)▫Quantitative methods (Time-series analysis)
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Migration Patterns in PakistanGDP growth and emigration (% change)
1972
1975
1978
1981
1984
1987
1990
1993
1996
1999
2002
2005
2008
2011
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
GDP Growth (%)
% Change in Emigrant Numbers
Year
%
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Pakistan: Consumption, savings, and remittance flows
1973
1976
1979
1982
1985
1988
1991
1994
1997
2000
2003
2006
2009
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Gross domestic savings (% of GDP)Final consumption expenditure, etc. (% of GDP)
Year
%
1973
1976
1979
1982
1985
1988
1991
1994
1997
2000
2003
2006
2009
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
Remittances (Million US$)
Year
Mil
lion
US
$
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Top emigrant destinations
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
Saudi Arabia. U.A.E. Oman
Nu
mb
ers
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Migration by labor type
1971
1974
1977
1980
1983
1986
1989
1992
1995
1998
2001
2004
2007
2010
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
Highly Qualified Highly Skilled Skilled Semi Skilled Un-Skilled
Year
Nu
mb
ers
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Migration by province
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
PUNJABSINDHK.PakhtunkhawBALUCHISTANAZAD KASHMIRN/AREATRIBAL AREA
Year
Nu
mb
er
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The number of overseas Pakistanis (2010)
Source: Bureau of Emigration and Overseas Employment (2010)
Africa2%
Americas 19%
Asia and Far East3%
Australia and New Zealand
1%
Europe28%
Middle East47%
Region-wise percentage of overseas Pakistanis (2010)
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Time-series Analysis
•3 SLS estimation (Foldvari et. al, 2012)
•Variables used▫GDP per capita (lny)▫Physical capital stock (lk)▫Annual emigration numbers (ltm)▫Literacy rate (lr)
•Period covered▫1972-2011
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Model specification
lnyt = β10 + β11lnkt + β12tmt + β13lrt + u1,t
lnkt = β20 + β21lnyt + β22tmt + β23lrt + u2,t
tmt = β30 + β31lnyt + β32lnkt + β33lrt + u3,t
lrt = β40 + β41lnyt + β42lnkt + β43tmt + u4,t
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Regression Results
•Effect on GDP per capita
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•Effect on capital stock
•Effect on migration numbers
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•Effect on literacy rate
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Migration & Development: Cross-cutting Themes• Overseas exposure and training: qualified diasporas
• Japan: Knowledge and technology transfers due to increased migration
• Globalized citizenry
• Lack of economic opportunities migration away from the country
• Pakistani exports 20% higher owing to Pak diasporas
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•1970s and 1980s: Loss in production quality as qualified personnel moved abroad
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• The case of illegal migrants: over 33 million in EU
• Bilateral readmission policies being undertaken by EU to address illegal migration
• The EU model of increased labor mobility and increased economic activity
• Two-way migration for reverse transfers and development
• Malaysia: improved markets lower migration
Labor Mobility and Development
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•Cluster phenomenon: concentration in sectors of comparative advantages rather than subsidies
•Exchange programs can be more beneficial for brain gain
•EU reintegration support fund: to facilitate migrant settlement in home country; run by NGOs instead of the GoP
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Remittances & Development•Higher remittances inflationary pressures
poverty
•Remittance flows only second to export earnings
•Remittance spending consumption goods and investment goods
•Use of remittance flows: financing of CAD less available for expenditure on social services
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•Positive effect of remittances (Ahmed et al., 2010)▫GDP growth▫Household expenditure▫Real investment▫Poverty▫Income inequality
•But need to be aware of ‘Dutch Disease’
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Conflict & Migration
•Push and pull effects of migration
•Karachi: conflict push migration flight of capital
•FATA: conflict pull migration source of livelihoods
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Case Studies on Returning Migrants•Faculty at various public and private
educational institutions
•Shifa International
•Omar Saif (SMSall)
•Centaurus
•Rozee.pk
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Future Outlook•2014 withdrawal of US troops from
Afghanistan influx of Afghan migrants
•Push migration likely over the next 5 years flight of talent
•Competitive markets opportunities for commercial investments by diasporas▫China▫India
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Policy Implications• Skills training for manpower export high end skills
• Too narrow a focus on remittances alone engaging Diaspora in knowledge, ideas and technology transfer
• Easier transition for returning migrants conducive business environment
• Diasporas opportunities for export markets
• Competitive markets where Diaspora can enter into Joint Ventures: ASEAN economies, China, India