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BOULEVARD KUKULCÁN DEMAND STUDY, CANCÚN, QUINTANA ROO.
BOULEVARD KUKULCÁN DEMAND STUDY, CANCÚN, QUINTANA ROO
Casillas González Héctor F.González Lira E. Raymundo
López Hernández Ruben
OCTOBER 20 – 22, 200418 th International EMME/2 Users’ Conference
Mexico City, Mexico
BOULEVARD KUKULCÁN DEMAND STUDY, CANCÚN, QUINTANA ROO.
I. Introduction
II. Study Overview
III. Corridor Analysis
IV. Models of Analysis
V. Demand Results
VI. Demand Forecast
VII. Conclusions
I. Introduction
II. Study Overview
III. Corridor Analysis
IV. Models of Analysis
V. Demand Results
VI. Demand Forecast
VII. Conclusions
IndexIndex
BOULEVARD KUKULCÁN DEMAND STUDY, CANCÚN, QUINTANA ROO.
Corridor Characteristics:
• Cancún is located in the Municipality of Bénito Juárez in Quintana Roo, Mexico. Tourism is the principal economic activity
• Population of 492,258 inhab. in 1,644
km².
• Blvd. Kukulkán is on the east side of the city and communicate the city with the Tourist Zone.
Zone of StudyIntroductionIntroduction
BOULEVARD KUKULCÁN DEMAND STUDY, CANCÚN, QUINTANA ROO.
Objectives:
• Estimate the number of vehicles using
the bridges of Bojórquez, Bonfil y
Nichupté.• Estimate social benefits and fees
income.
Methodology
Results:• Transit corridor analysis• Demand Characterization• Transit and fees income estimation of
each Bridge.• Economic y financial evaluation
Study OverviewStudy Overview
Análisis de la Demanda.
Información Documental.
Información de Campo.
Oferta. Demanda.
VOT Modelo de selección modal.
Pronóstico de aforos e ingresos.
Evaluación Financiera
Evaluación Económica
DemandAnalysis
DocumentalInformation
FieldInformation
Supply Demand
VOT Mode selection model.
Transit and fees income estimation
FinancialEvaluation
EconomicEvaluation
BOULEVARD KUKULCÁN DEMAND STUDY, CANCÚN, QUINTANA ROO.
Bojórquez Bridge:Length: 0.80 kmInvestment: 181 - 487 million of pesos and 2 lanes per direction
Bonfil Bridge:Length: 9.6 kmInvestment: 945 - 1,576 million of pesos and 2 lanes per direction
Nichupté Bridge:Length: 7.2 kmInvestment: 752 - 1,253 million of pesos and 2 lanes per direction
Location of the three BridgesStudy OverviewStudy Overview
BOULEVARD KUKULCÁN DEMAND STUDY, CANCÚN, QUINTANA ROO.
Point of study “Las Perlas”, weekday (Automobiles)
According to the observed demand, the zones between “Plaza Caracol” and “Plaza Kukulkán”, bring the biggest rate of trips.
Corridor Analysis
Point of study “Nizuc”, weekday (Automobiles)
At this point, the trips are between the Central Market (Ejido Bonfil) and the tourist zone, almost was identify trips between the airport and the “Riviera Maya”.
BOULEVARD KUKULCÁN DEMAND STUDY, CANCÚN, QUINTANA ROO.
Models of Analysis
In this project we just analyze the highway mode, for this reason we don’t use a modal assignment model, we only use a path selection. The choice is obtained when we apply fees to each project. The selection of the potential users of the bridges are estimate with a Logit multinomial probabilistic model, which utility functions on path choice are estimated through declared preference survey. The percentage of potential users of the project on each fee level is estimated with the next equation:
ojectUwithoutprUproject
Uproject
n
i
Ui
ee
ëprojectP
Ui
ëiP
)()(
where:P(i)= Probability of use the route iUi = Result of the utility of the function from the selection iIn this case, we need to estimate the utility function of each selection, with or without project. That means estimate the fees and delays of each option.
BOULEVARD KUKULCÁN DEMAND STUDY, CANCÚN, QUINTANA ROO.
Demand Results. Bojórquez Bridge
• 830 veh-peak period on week day and 1,112 vehicles in weekend (20,119 vehicles AADT )
• Fees of $3 pesos for cars and $5 pesos for trucks
• Used by through traffic in “Punta Cancún” (67% of the actual demand)
• Its works like a bypass of Punta Cancun
BOULEVARD KUKULCÁN DEMAND STUDY, CANCÚN, QUINTANA ROO.
Demand Results. Bonfil Bridge
•512 veh-peak period on week day and 774 in weekend (2,482 vehicles AADT)•Fees of $24 pesos for cars and $27 pesos per trucks•Increase the capacity of trips to the tourist zone.•The principal change of volume is in the south with an average of 70% and 7% in the north access.
BOULEVARD KUKULCÁN DEMAND STUDY, CANCÚN, QUINTANA ROO.
Demand Results. Nichupté Bridge
•1,003 veh-peak period on week day and 1,521 in weekend (4,670 vehicles AADT) •Fees of $24 pesos for cars and $28 pesos for trucks•The construction of this bridge means a reduction of 55% of the transit in the north of the Blvd. Kukulcán •Also means a reduction of 17% of the transit y the south access
BOULEVARD KUKULCÁN DEMAND STUDY, CANCÚN, QUINTANA ROO.
Demand Forecast
9,45613,037
17,52420,817
23,48025,804
27,877
20,119
27,739
37,286
44,292
49,958
54,90259,312
4,670 6,0617,896
10,81213,667
17,572
23,056
2,482 3,005 4,135 4,3826,272
8,517 10,018
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
2004 2009 2014 2019 2024 2029 2034
Bojórquez con caseta de peaje Bojórquez sin caseta de peaje Puente Nichupté Puente Bonfil
BOULEVARD KUKULCÁN DEMAND STUDY, CANCÚN, QUINTANA ROO.
• With the results of the transit assignment, the best fees and the results of the economic and financial evaluation for each bridge, we could say that the Bojórquez bridge is the best investment.
• Its important to keep watching the transit in the tourist zone for determinate the moment that the Nichupté Bridge will be available, beginning with two lanes with the possibility of widening to four lanes.
• Its not recommendable the construction of the Bonfil Bridge at least in the next 30 years.
Conclusions