Bonds and Bond Valuation

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Differences Between Debt and Equity • Debt Not an ownership interest Creditors do not have voting rights Interest is considered a cost of doing business and is tax deductible Creditors have legal recourse if interest or principal payments are missed Excess debt can lead to financial distress and bankruptcy • Equity Ownership interest Common stockholders vote for the board of directors and other issues Dividends are not considered a cost of doing business and are not tax deductible Dividends are not a liability of the firm and stockholders have no legal recourse if dividends are not paid An all equity firm can not go bankrupt

Transcript of Bonds and Bond Valuation

Page 1: Bonds and Bond Valuation

Differences Between Debt and Equity

• Debt– Not an ownership interest– Creditors do not have

voting rights– Interest is considered a cost

of doing business and is tax deductible

– Creditors have legal recourse if interest or principal payments are missed

– Excess debt can lead to financial distress and bankruptcy

• Equity– Ownership interest– Common stockholders vote for

the board of directors and other issues

– Dividends are not considered a cost of doing business and are not tax deductible

– Dividends are not a liability of the firm and stockholders have no legal recourse if dividends are not paid

– An all equity firm can not go bankrupt

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The Bond Indenture

• Contract between the company and the bondholders and includes– The basic terms of the bonds

– The total amount of bonds issued

– A description of property used as security, if applicable

– Sinking fund provisions

– Call provisions

– Details of protective covenants

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Bond Classifications

• Registered vs. Bearer Forms• Security

– Collateral – secured by financial securities

– Mortgage – secured by real property, normally land or buildings

– Debentures – unsecured

– Notes – unsecured debt with original maturity less than 10 years

• Seniority

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Bond Characteristics and Required Returns

• The coupon rate depends on the risk characteristics of the bond when issued

• Which bonds will have the higher coupon, all else equal?– Secured debt versus a debenture– Subordinated debenture versus senior debt– A bond with a sinking fund versus one without– A callable bond versus a non-callable bond

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How does adding a “call provision” affect a bond?

• Issuer can refund if rates decline. That helps the issuer but hurts the investor.

• Therefore, borrowers are willing to pay more, and lenders require more, on callable bonds.

• Most bonds have a deferred call and a declining call premium.

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When would bonds be called?

• In general, if a bond sells at a premium, then (1) coupon > kd, so (2) a call is likely.

• So, expect to earn:– YTC on premium bonds.– YTM on par & discount bonds.

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What’s a sinking fund?

• Provision to pay off a loan over its life rather than all at maturity.

• Similar to amortization on a term loan.

• Reduces risk to investor, shortens average maturity.

• But not good for investors if rates decline after issuance.

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1. Call x% at par per year for sinking fund purposes.

2. Buy bonds on open market.

Company would call if kd is below the coupon rate and bond sells at a premium. Use open market purchase if kd is above coupon rate and bond sells at a discount.

Sinking funds are generally handled in 2 ways

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Protective Covenants

• Agreements to protect bondholders• Negative covenant: Thou shalt not:

– pay dividends beyond specified amount– sell more senior debt & amount of new debt is limited– refund existing bond issue with new bonds paying lower interest

rate– buy another company’s bonds

• Positive covenant: Thou shalt:– use proceeds from sale of assets for other assets– allow redemption in event of merger or spinoff– maintain good condition of assets– provide audited financial information

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Bond Ratings – Investment Quality

• High Grade– Moody’s Aaa and S&P AAA – capacity to pay is

extremely strong– Moody’s Aa and S&P AA – capacity to pay is very

strong• Medium Grade

– Moody’s A and S&P A – capacity to pay is strong, but more susceptible to changes in circumstances

– Moody’s Baa and S&P BBB – capacity to pay is adequate, adverse conditions will have more impact on the firm’s ability to pay

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Bond Ratings - Speculative

• Low Grade– Moody’s Ba, B, Caa and Ca– S&P BB, B, CCC, CC– Considered speculative with respect to capacity to pay.

The “B” ratings are the lowest degree of speculation.• Very Low Grade

– Moody’s C and S&P C – income bonds with no interest being paid

– Moody’s D and S&P D – in default with principal and interest in arrears

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What factors affect default risk and bond ratings?

• Financial performance– Debt ratio– TIE, FCC ratios– Current ratios

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• Provisions in the bond contract– Secured vs. unsecured debt– Senior vs. subordinated debt– Guarantee provisions– Sinking fund provisions– Debt maturity

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• Other factors– Earnings stability– Regulatory environment– Potential product liability– Accounting policies

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Importance of bond ratings

• Bond interest rate, cost of debt capital

• Clientele

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Key Features of a Bond

• Bond– Contract under which a borrower agrees to

make payments of principal and interest on specific dates to the holders of the bond

• Bonds are the most common form of financing

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Key Features of a Bond

1. Par value: Face amount; paid at maturity. Assume $1,000.

2. Coupon interest rate: Stated interest rate. Multiply by par to get $ of interest. Generally fixed.

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3. Maturity: Years until bondmust be repaid. Declines.

4. Issue date: Date when bondwas issued.

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What’s “yield to maturity”?

• YTM is the rate of return earned on a bond held to maturity.

• We will use the symbol rd or YTM to refer to yield to maturity

• YTM is the appropriate discount rate for the bond. It represents the opportunity cost that could be earned on bonds of similar risk.

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What’s the value of a 10-year, 10% coupon bond if rd = 10%?

V

r rB

d d

$100 $1,

1

000

11 10 10 . . . +

$100

1+ r d

100 100

0 1 2 1010%

100 + 1,000V = ?

...

= $90.91 + . . . + $38.55 + $385.54= $1,000.

++++

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10 10 100 1000N I/YR PV PMT FV

-1,000

The bond consists of a 10-year, 10% annuity of $100/year plus a $1,000 lump sum at t = 10:

$ 614.46 385.54

$1,000.00

PV annuity PV maturity value PV annuity

===

INPUTS

OUTPUT

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The Bond-Pricing Equation

tdd

td

)r(1

PAR

r

)r(11

-1

C Value Bond

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10 13 100 1000N I/YR PV PMT FV

-837.21

When rd rises, above the coupon rate, the bond’s value falls below par, so it sells at a discount.

What would happen if expected inflation rose by 3%, causing rd = 13%?

INPUTS

OUTPUT

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What would happen if inflation fell, and rd declined to 7%?

10 7 100 1000N I/YR PV PMT FV

-1,210.71

Price rises above par, and bond sells at a premium, if coupon > rd.

INPUTS

OUTPUT

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The bond was issued 20 years ago and now has 10 years to maturity. What would happen to its value over time if the yield to maturity remained at 10%, or at 13%, or at 7%?

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M

Bond Value ($)

Years remaining to Maturity

1,372

1,211

1,000

837

775

30 25 20 15 10 5 0

rd = 7%.

rd = 13%.

rd = 10%.

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• At maturity, the value of any bond must equal its par value.

• The value of a premium bond would decrease to $1,000.

• The value of a discount bond would increase to $1,000.

• A par bond stays at $1,000 if rd remains constant.

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Valuing a Discount Bond with Annual Coupons

• Consider a bond with a coupon rate of 10% and coupons paid annually. The par value is $1000 and the bond has 5 years to maturity. The yield to maturity is 11%. What is the value of the bond?– Using the formula:

• B = PV of annuity + PV of lump sum• B = 100[1 – 1/(1.11)5] / .11 + 1000 / (1.11)5

• B = 369.59 + 593.45 = 963.04

– Using the calculator:• N = 5; I/Y = 11; PMT = 100; FV = 1000• CPT PV = -963.04

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Valuing a Premium Bond with Annual Coupons

• Suppose you are looking at a bond that has a 10% annual coupon and a face value of $1000. There are 20 years to maturity and the yield to maturity is 8%. What is the price of this bond?– Using the formula:

• B = PV of annuity + PV of lump sum• B = 100[1 – 1/(1.08)20] / .08 + 1000 / (1.08)20

• B = 981.81 + 214.55 = 1196.36– Using the calculator:

• N = 20; I/Y = 8; PMT = 100; FV = 1000• CPT PV = -1196.36

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• If coupon rate < rd, discount.

• If coupon rate = rd, par bond.

• If coupon rate > rd, premium.

• If rd rises, price falls.

• Price = par at maturity.

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What’s the YTM on a 10-year, 9% annual coupon, $1,000 par value bond

that sells for $887?

90 90 90

0 1 9 10rd=?

1,000PV1 . . .PV10

PVM

887 Find rd that “works”!

...

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10 -887 90 1000N I/YR PV PMT FV

10.91

INPUTS

OUTPUT

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Semiannual Bonds1.Multiply years by 2 to get periods = 2n.2.Divide nominal rate by 2 to get periodic rate = rd/2.3.Divide annual INT by 2 to get PMT = INT/2.

2n rd/2 OK INT/2 OK

N I/YR PV PMT FV

INPUTS

OUTPUT

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2(10) 13/2 100/220 6.5 50 1000N I/YR PV PMT FV

-834.72

Find the value of 10-year, 10% coupon,semiannual bond if rd = 13%.

INPUTS

OUTPUT

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YTM with Semiannual Coupons

• Suppose a bond with a 10% coupon rate and semiannual coupons, has a face value of $1000, 20 years to maturity and is selling for $1197.93.– Is the YTM more or less than 10%?

– What is the semiannual coupon payment?

– How many periods are there?

– N = 40; PV = -1197.93; PMT = 50; FV = 1000; CPT I/Y = 4% (Is this the YTM?)

– YTM = 4%*2 = 8%

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What’s interest rate (or price) risk? Does a 1-year or 10-year 10% bond have more risk?

kd 1-year Change 10-year Change

5% $1,048 $1,386

10% 1,000+4.8%

-4.4% 1,000

+38.6%

-25.1%15% 956 749

Interest rate risk: Rising rd causes bond’s price to fall.

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Interest Rate Risk

• Price Risk– Change in price due to changes in interest rates– Long-term bonds have more price risk than

short-term bonds

• Reinvestment Rate Risk– Uncertainty concerning rates at which cash

flows can be reinvested– Short-term bonds have more reinvestment rate

risk than long-term bonds

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Government Bonds• Treasury Securities

– Federal government debt– T-bills – pure discount bonds with original maturity of one

year or less– T-notes – coupon debt with original maturity between one

and ten years– T-bonds coupon debt with original maturity greater than

ten years• Municipal Securities

– Debt of state and local governments– Varying degrees of default risk, rated similar to corporate

debt– Interest received is tax-exempt at the federal level

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Example 7.3

• A taxable bond has a yield of 8% and a municipal bond has a yield of 6%– If you are in a 40% tax bracket, which bond do you

prefer?• 8%(1 - .4) = 4.8%• The after-tax return on the corporate bond is 4.8%, compared

to a 6% return on the municipal

– At what tax rate would you be indifferent between the two bonds?

• 8%(1 – T) = 6%• T = 25%

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Zero-Coupon Bonds

• Make no periodic interest payments (coupon rate = 0%)

• The entire yield-to-maturity comes from the difference between the purchase price and the par value

• Cannot sell for more than par value• Sometimes called zeroes, or deep discount bonds• Treasury Bills and principal only Treasury strips

are good examples of zeroes

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Floating Rate Bonds

• Coupon rate floats depending on some index value• Examples – adjustable rate mortgages and

inflation-linked Treasuries• There is less price risk with floating rate bonds

– The coupon floats, so it is less likely to differ substantially from the yield-to-maturity

• Coupons may have a “collar” – the rate cannot go above a specified “ceiling” or below a specified “floor”

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Convertible Bonds

• Conversion ratio:– Number of shares of stock acquired by conversion

• Conversion price:– Bond par value / Conversion ratio

• Conversion value:– Price per share of stock x Conversion ratio

• In-the-money versus out-the-money

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More on Convertibles

• Exchangeable bonds– Convertible into a set number of shares of a third

company’s common stock.• Minimum (floor) value of convertible is the

greater of:– Straight or “intrinsic” bond value– Conversion value

• Conversion option value– Bondholders pay for the conversion option by

accepting a lower coupon rate on convertible bonds versus otherwise- identical nonconvertible bonds.

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Inflation and Interest Rates

• Real rate of interest – change in purchasing power

• Nominal rate of interest – quoted rate of interest, change in purchasing power and inflation

• The ex ante nominal rate of interest includes our desired real rate of return plus an adjustment for expected inflation

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The Fisher Effect

• The Fisher Effect defines the relationship between real rates, nominal rates and inflation

• (1 + R) = (1 + r)(1 + h), where– R = nominal rate

– r = real rate

– h = expected inflation rate

• Approximation– R = r + h

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Example 7.6

• If we require a 10% real return and we expect inflation to be 8%, what is the nominal rate?

• R = (1.1)(1.08) – 1 = .188 = 18.8%• Approximation: R = 10% + 8% = 18%• Because the real return and expected inflation are

relatively high, there is significant difference between the actual Fisher Effect and the approximation.

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Term Structure of Interest Rates

• Term structure is the relationship between time to maturity and yields, all else equal

• It is important to recognize that we pull out the effect of default risk, different coupons, etc.

• Yield curve – graphical representation of the term structure– Normal – upward-sloping, long-term yields are higher

than short-term yields– Inverted – downward-sloping, long-term yields are

lower than short-term yields