Bond & Interest Rates - The 54 Year Cycle

8/14/2019 Bond & Interest Rates - The 54 Year Cycle

1/19

Mkjer & @jua}aru ]iuar ( Uca 15 pai} bpbda

Uc`r `r i dkjl ua}h ijidpr`r bkva}`jl mkjer ije `jua}aru }iuar ije uca`} }adiu`kjrc`w qr`jl Uca 15Pai} @jua}aru ]iua Bpbda ije uca }adiuae Nkje}iuàff Bpbda ir |add ir Add`kuu \iva Ucak}p* Uca

Add`kuu \iva W}`jb`wda `r mirae kj uca wrpbckdklp kf uca hirrar |c`bc fk}hr wiuua}jr* @ qra ucara

wiuua}jr ir |add ir uca laja}id raju`haju `j hp fk}abiru`jl* @j ieeù`kj$ @ uina `juk bkjrèa}iu`kjuca maciv`kq} kf uca bkhha}bìd u}iea}r*

@ mal`j mp dkkn`jl iu mkjer ije `jua}aru }iuar dkjl ua}h w}`ba wiuua}jr* Dkkn`jl iu bci}ur

rwijj`jl bajuq}àr$ `jua}aru`jl ru}qbuq}ar i}a }avaidae |c`bc l`va ij èai imkqu uca fquq}a kfmkjer ije `jua}aru }iuar* Uca 27 pai} bci}u }avaidr i hiok} ru}qbuq}id uq}j fk} uca mkje hi}nau*

Ij `jua}aru`jl irwabu `r uciu uca riha hiok} ru}qbuq}id uq}jr uina wdiba `j uca bq}}ajbp hi}nau*

Raa kq} ijidpr`r -bq}}ajbàr ( Dkjl ua}h fk}abiru- |ùc uca dkjl ua}h kqudkkn fk} uca |k}der hiok}bq}}ajbàr*

Uca `}kjp `r uciu `j rwùa kf uca c`ruk}`biddp dk| `jua}aru }iuar uciu |a civa$ eamu b}`rar i}a

eavadkw`jl `j Aq}kwa$ Oiwij ije Qjùae Ruiuar$

Uca mkje hi}nau #idrk njk|j ir uca eamu$ b}aeù$ k} f`sae `jbkha hi}nau) `r i f`jijbìd hi}nau

|ca}a wi}u`b`wijur mqp ije radd eamu rabq}ùàr$ qrqiddp `j uca fk}h kf mkjer* Mabiqra kf uca

`jva}ra }adiu`kjrc`w mau|aaj mkje vidqiu`kjr ije `jua}aru }iuar$ uca mkje hi}nau `r uca bkjeqbuk}kf dkjl ua}h `jua}aru }iuar* Eabd`j`jl mkje w}`bar haijr }`r`jl mkje pàder ije `jua}aru }iuar*

]`r`jl mkje w}`bar haijr dk|a} pàder ije dk|a} `jua}aru }iuar*

Uca c`ruk}p kf uca hkea}j mkje hi}nau

Uca hkjap w}kwcaur

Uca ]kucrbc`de fih`dp f}kh ùr hkearu mal`jj`jl `j uca ifua}hiuc kf Uca F}ajbc ]avkdqu`kj$

b}aiuae |ciu |ir uk avkdva `juk uca hiok} mijn`jl ckqra `j Aq}kwa* Uca fkqjea} Hipa} Ihrbcad]kucrbc`de raju fkq} kf c`r rkjr Jiucij$ Oihar$ Ridkhkj ije Bi}d uk Dkjekj$ Wi}`r$ Vàjji ije

Jiwdar }arwabu`vadp$ c`r kuca} rkj idrk biddae Ihrbcad }ahi`jae `j F}ijnfq}u |ùc c`r fiuca}* Uc`rhqd` jiu`kjid kwa}iu`kj uc}kqlckqu Aq}kwa ajimdae ucah uk civa fqdd ievijuila kf uca M}ù`rc

@jeqru}ìd ]avkdqu`kj eq}`jl uca 90uc bajuq}p*
http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/2009/1215.htmlhttp://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/2009/1215.html


2/19

Uca hkea}j mkje hi}nau

Uca ]kucrbc`de,r |a}a uca w}`ha hi}nau hina} fk} lkva}jhaju mkjer eq}`jl uca 90uc bajuq}p*Ucap b}aiuae uca `jua}jiu`kjid mkje hi}nau `j ùr hkea}j fk}h |c`bc hiea mkjer hk}a air`dp

u}ieimda*

Bkh`jl kqu kf uca uq}mqdaju ije bciku`b 93uc bajuq}p$ uca Aq}kwaij ruiuar `j uca 90uc bajuq}pkfuaj }ij mqelau eaf`bùr* Uca`} uis }avajqar |ir `jrqff`bàju uk haau uca`} aswajeùq}ar |c`bc

|a}a qrqiddp }adiuae uk |i}r k} w}awi}iu`kj fk} |i}r* Uca `jua}aru ucap cie uk wip |ir }adiu`vadp

c`lc mabiqra ucap |a}a wa}ba`vae mp `jvaruk}r ir qj}adìmda b}aeùk}r eqa uk uca 93uc bajuq}p,r|i}r ije }avkdqu`kjr* Uca fk}hqdi kf uca ]kucrbc`de,r rqbbarr `j uca mkje hi}nau raahae uk ma

rab}abp$ rhqlld`jl ije }`rn uin`jl*

Uca rab}au eaid`jlr mau|aaj uca L}aan Ruiua ije Lkdehij Ribcr ije uca asbawu`kjid rab}abp kfuca Viu`bij mijn kwa}iu`kjr `r d`nadp uk ma uca u}aje `j uca bkh`jl eabiear r`h`di} uk uca kja kfuca 90uc bajuq}p* Kjba ili`j uca ]kucrbc`de fk}hqdi `r `j qra*

Uca Nkje}iuàff Bpbda ije uca 15 pai} |ckdarida w}`ba ije `jua}aru }iua Bpbdar*

Ca}a `r i rqhhi}p kf kq} ijidpr`r kf uca `jua}aru bpbda wqmd`rcae `j -Uca Nkje}iuàff Bpbda- f}kh9ru kf Eabahma} =770?


3/19

Rkq}ba? Uca imkva bci}u f}kh Uca Dkjl\iva L}kqw `ddqru}iuar Uca Nkje}iuàff Bpbda uc}kqlc uca bajuq}àr* Kj iva}ila uca bpbda`r iww}ks* 15 pai}r dkjl* Uc`r u `ha uca bpbda `r hqbc dkjla}* Uca l}iwc idrk rck|r uca bkhwi}`rkj kf `jua}aru }iuar ije |ckdarida

w}`bar |c`bc i}a hk}a k} darr fkddk|`jl uca riha bpbd`b wa}`ke*

Pkq bij hina i bira uciu uca Nkje}iuàff bpbda cir ukwwae ije wk`jur ek|j `juk =7=7*

I fkq}uc bpbda k} uca bq}}aju bpbda malij rkhau`ha ifua} \\@@ #diua 9057r) |ùc uca rw}`jl wciraije |a i}a jk| uc}kqlc |ùc uca rqhha} ije iquqhj #wdiuaiq) wcira* Irrqh`jl uciu uca |`jua}

wcira kf uca bpbda malij i}kqje =777$ ck| bij |a èaju`fp uca mkuukh k} uca aje kf uca |`jua}wcira ije uca |ckda bpbda ;


4/19

Rbcqhwaua} cie uca kw`j`kj uciu uca eabd`ja |`dd bkju`jqa madk| uca wk`ju kf ayq`d`m}`qh$ ije kjdp

|caj uca eamu ru}qbuq}a cir maaj }aruk}ae uk i rkqje mir`r |`dd uca abkjkhp }aibc uc`r wk`ju*Ck|ava}$ bkjrèa}`jl uca l}k|`jl eamur ir |add ir uca fibu uciu jk kja cir bdi`hae uciu uca eamu

ru}qbuq}a cir maaj }aruk}ae uk i rkqje mir`r$ |a i}a ru`dd |ùc`j uca ek|ju}aje wcira kf uca bpbda

ije uca mkuukh `r `j f}kju kf qr rkhau`ha eq}`jl uca jasu eabiea*

U|k kf uca dkjl ua}h bpbdar uciu i}a aswabuae uk ma mkuukh`jl eq}`jl uca jasu fa| pai}r i}a uca15 pai} \ckdarida w}`ba Bpbda ije @jua}aru }iua Bpbda* @eaiddp$ ucara bpbdar rckqde civa mkuukhae

`j =776 mqu uca mkuukh`jl `r ru`dd `j w}kl}arr* Uca c`ruk}`bid dk| hip civa uinaj wdiba diua =773*Kq} }arai}bc `je`biuar uciu ucara bpbdar bkqde uq}j qw ifua} Oqja =799 #Uca jasu mkuukh `j uca

Hi}u`j I* I}hru}kjl W}`jbaukj Abkjkh`br 3*6 pai} bpbda)* Uca jasu èaid ukw `j |ckdarida w}`barije `jua}aru }iuar `r aswabuae `j =722 ije uc`r haijr uciu |a |`dd civa hk}a ucij =7 pai}r kf

}`r`jl w}`bar ije `jua}aru }iuar icaie kf qr*

Dai}j hk}a imkqu bpbdar$ Nkje}iuàff ije Rbcqhwaua} `j kq} ijidpr`r biddae -Uca Nkje}iuàff

Bpbda-*

I bajuq}p dkkn iu `jua}aru }iuar

Uca f`}ru `jua}aru }iua bpbda ifua} uca F}ajbc }avkdqu`kj wainae `j 9392 ije eabd`jae qju`d 9355*

I ja| }`r`jl |iva kf `jua}aru }iuar `j uca =je bpbda bkhhajbae `j uca hèeda kf 9357r ije

bkju`jqae uk uca ai}dp 93


5/19

Kq} hi`j rbaji}`k `r uciu \\@@ ajeae hk}a ucij i bajuq}p dkjl mqdd hi}nau `j mkjer* Uca

fkddk|`jl eabd`ja bkju`jqae qju`d 9037 |c`bc |a civa dimadae ir |iva @* R`jba ucaj mkjer civa

}idd`ae `j i |iva @@ qw|i}e bk}}abu`kj |c`bc hkru d`nadp ajeae diua =773*

Uca 27(pai} mkje

Ca}a `r i hkjucdp bci}u kf uca 27(pai} QR U}airq}p Mkje w}`ba$ `ddqru}iu`jl uca Add`kuu \iva

bkqju`jl kf uca qw|i}e bk}}abu`kj `j mkjer kva} uca diru 27 pai}r*


6/19


7/19

Idd bci}ur `j uc`r i}u`bda |ca}a rkq}ba `r jku rwab`f`biddp l`vaj i}a bkq}uarp kf Rukbnbci}ur*bkh*

@u dkknr d`na i 1 |iva eabd`ja `r `j w}kl}arr r`jba uca wain `j diua =773 |c`bc |a civa dimaddae

|iva 9 `j mdibn bkdkq}* \a i}a bq}}ajudp `j uca diuua} ruilar kf `u* Pkq bij aswabu rkha hk}aek|jr`ea kj mkjer mafk}a |iva 9 `r bkhwdauae*

Uca jasu ukw `j uca `jua}aru }iua bpbda `r aswabuae `j =722 k} i fa| pai}r diua} |c`bc |a irrqha

|kqde ma uca ukw kf |iva @@@ kf i bajuq}p }`ra `j `jua}aru }iuar* Mkjer |`dd kf bkq}ra eabd`ja eq}`jluca riha wa}`ke ir `jua}aru }iuar i}a }`r`jl*

97 pai}r Mkjer

Ca}a `r i hkjucdp bci}u kf uca 97(pai}r QR U}airq}p Jkua W}`ba?


8/19


9/19

Mkjer wainae dkjl ua}h diua =773 ifua} }`r`jl r`jba 9037* I jai} 27 pai} mqdd hi}nau `j mkjer `rkva} ije |a i}a `j uca ai}dp ruilar kf i dkjl ua}h eabd`ja |c`bc rckqde diru eabiear*

@jua}aru }iuar ije mkje pàder

\\@@ ajeae hk}a ucij i bajuq}p dkjl eabd`ja `j `jua}aru }iuar* Uca f`}ru di}la }`ra `j mkje pàde

ije `jua}aru }iuar bkhhajbae `j uca 9057,r ije ajeae `j 9037* Uc`r |ir i |iva @ kf |ciu |amadàva |`dd ma i bajuq}p }`ra `j `jua}aru }iuar* R`jba 9037 pàder ije `jua}aru }iuar eabd`jae `j i

|iva @@ bk}}abu`kj |c`bc |ir bkhwdauae iu uca aje kf =773*

27 pai} mkje pàde

Ca}a `r i hkjucdp bci}u kf uca 27(pai} U(Mkje Pàde?


10/19


11/19

Uca Add`kuu \iva bkqju`jl kf uca bk}}abu`kj `j mkje pàder }avaidr i eabd`j`jl z`lzil wiuua}j r`jba9039 uciu ajeae `j diua =773* I jai} 27 pai} eabd`ja `j `jua}aru }iuar `r kva} ije |a i}a `j uca

ai}dp ruilar kf i dkjl ua}h }`ra*

Uca jasu ukw `j `jua}aru }iuar `r aswabuae `j =722 k} diua}* \a irrqha uciu dkjl ua}h mkje pàderije `jua}aru }iuar |`dd ma bkjrèa}imdp c`lca} ucij =7! pai}dp `j uca Qjùae Ruiuar ije hkru kuca}

eavadkwae bkqju}àr eq}`jl uca =7=7r*

Mkje & @jua}aru }iuar bkhwi}ae uk kuca} irrau bdirrar

\a bkhwi}a mkjer & @jua}aru }iuar uk uca laja}id rukbnhi}nau ije w}ab`kqr hauid }aw}arajuae mplkde* \a qra uc`r `j i mqdd ije mai} hi}nau uk raa |c`bc kja `r uca ru}kjlaru ije |ainaru*

Uca mkje+rukbnhi}nau }iu`k


12/19

Uca imkva }iu`k rck|r |c`bc kja kf rukbnr ije mkjer i}a uca maru wa}fk}h`jl irrau bdirr*Bq}}ajudp uca rukbn hi}nau `r kquwa}fk}h`jl uca mkje hi}nau*

Mkjer kquwa}fk}hae rukbnr eq}`jl uca diru eabiea ije }auq}jae 6! wa} pai} kj iva}ila |c`da

rukbnr dkru hkjap aibc pai} kj iva}ila*

Lkde + Mkje }iu`k


13/19

Lkde }adiu`va uk `jua}aru }iuar `r ukww`jl dkjl ua}h* Uca eabd`ja rckqde diru eabiear$ uc`r haijr

uciu pkq |`dd hina hk}a hkjap rck}u`jl uca mkje hi}nau ucij `jvaru`jl `j lkde*

Uca mkje hi}nau bij fk}abiru d`yqèùp |ivar

Uca b}aeù b}qjbc `je`biuk}


14/19

I wi}imkd`b ruaawaj`jl kf uca QR U}airq}pr pàde bq}va `r ukww`jl + }kdd`jl kva}* Uca imkva`je`biuk} e`vèar uca dkjl ua}h 97(pai} QR U}airq}p pàde mp uca rck}u ua}h 2 hkjucr QR U}airq}p

pàde ije uaddr pkq |caj i b}aeù b}qjbc `r m}a|`jl* Uc`r kbbq}r |caj rck}u ua}h `jua}aru }iuar i}a

c`lca} ucij dkjl ua}h `jua}aru }iuar* Jku`ba uciu uc`r ciwwajae `j =777(=779 ije `j =776(=77

Bond & Interest Rates - The 54 Year Cycle

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