An Assessment of the Future Artistic Career

Prospects for

Agnes Bolt

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An Assessment of the Future Artistic Career Prospects for Agnes Bolt

Background and Scope Agnes Bolt is an artist and a Masters of Fine Art (“MFA”) candidate at Carnegie Mellon University (“CMU”). She received a BA from New York University, College of Arts and Science, in 2001. She has a history of public exhibitions, screenings, awards, press reviews and publications that are detailed in her Curriculum Vitae (“CV”) that is included as Attachment 1. Her work is interdisciplinary incorporating video, photography, installation and intervention.1 In addition to her own art, Ms. Bolt has experience as a curator, educator and participant in other aspects of the artistic community. Those experiences, while relevant to her development as an artist, fall outside of the scope of this report. This report will project what the future may hold for Ms. Bolt’s artistic career as requested on Day 2 of her project with me. The entire request which defines the scope of this project is included as Attachment 2. This is not an attempt to see into the future, nor will I attempt to predict what the future holds for Agnes Bolt. I will look at criteria that affect the future career of an artist and compare them to Ms. Bolt’s circumstances. The report will consider several different aspects of Ms. Bolt’s career:

Continuing to work as a professional artist; Exhibiting work in increasingly significant venues and to greater attention; Sustaining herself financially from the production of her art; and Becoming familiar to the general public as an artist during her lifetime.

Projecting from the general trends of past experiences may provide insight into the future career path for a particular artist, but there are many intangibles influencing an artist’s career that cannot be anticipated. Also, the time frame in which this report was generated was relatively short, and thus it relies almost exclusively on publicly available information, with little independent verification. My background: I am a Fellow of the Society of Actuaries and a Member of the American Academy of Actuaries. I have been working as an actuary in private industry and government for over 25 years. While I have used some of the skills I have developed as an actuary in creating this report, it is not an actuarial report and therefore I have not demonstrated compliance with requirements to issue a Statement of Actuarial Opinion. I have also been an active art collector and participant in the Washington, DC art community for over 20 years, so I am also relying on the knowledge I have gained through this experience.

1 Agnes Bolt bio from CMU web site - http://people.art.cfa.cmu.edu/people/2947-AgnesBolt

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Approach Taken This primary characteristic upon which the projections in this report are based is that Agnes Bolt is scheduled to receive an MFA from CMU in 2012. While attainment of an MFA is not a requirement for a successful artistic career, it is a significant element and one that provides comparable information. According to CMU, between1985 and 2009 there were 118 students who graduated from CMU with an MFA (“CMU Grads” or “graduates”)2. A list of those graduates is included in Attachment 3. This report examines the history of those graduates as a predictor of a career path for Ms. Bolt. Should Ms. Bolt fail to complete her MFA at CMU, this will no longer serve as an appropriate basis for projections. I assumed that a person actively working as an artist in 2011 will have significant information about their art career on the internet. I searched the internet for a CV for each of the 118 graduates. Failing to find a CV, I looked for similar information in another format. If I was unable to find any information, or found information about a non-art producing career, I assumed that the graduate was no longer working as an artist. I collected and recorded information from each CV, which provides a basis for determining how each graduate compared to the aspects of Ms. Bolt’s career that this report will consider. The information based on the review of past experience of CMU Grads has been supplemented with additional information that will be explained in more detail in the sections that follow. Working as a Professional Artist Of the 118 CMU Grads since 1985 included in this study, over 60% were still working as artists in 2011. Many of the graduates who do not appear to be working as artists were working in careers that clearly were aided by their training at CMU. Also, they may continue to create art for their personal pleasure without attempting to exhibit it publicly. To determine the likelihood that Agnes Bolt will continue to work as a professional artist, I took a weighted average of the length of time each of the 118 graduates continued to work as an artist after graduation, based on the information described above. For graduates who were no longer creating art, I assumed that they continued to work after graduation for ½ of the time since graduation up to a maximum of 5 years. The use of a 5 year maximum was arbitrary, since I was unable to find statistics on the average length of time an artist continues to create art work after graduating with an MFA. I did sensitivity testing of the results using 10 years instead of 5 and found that it had little impact on the conclusions. With better information about the working lifetime of the graduates no longer working as artists, a more precise method could have been used to develop better estimates, but given the limitations of the data, the weighted average should provide a reasonable result.

2 CMU web site - http://people.art.cfa.cmu.edu/people/alumni

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Based on my review of the CMU Grads, Ms. Bolt is likely to continue to create art for her working lifetime. The table below shows the results of the calculation as the percentage of time, on average, since graduation that CMU Grads were working as artists. For example, after 5 years from graduation, the graduates worked as artists for almost 4½ years (90% of the time). As shown in the table, through ten years after graduation, the percentage of time working as an artist was still approximately 90%. The percentage drops after that, but 25 years after graduation, CMU Grads still had spent two-thirds of their career since graduation working as artists. Based on this, it is likely that Ms. Bolt will be working as an artist in 2029 and beyond.

CMU Grads Time Working as an Artist by 

Duration

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

5 10 15 20 25

Years Since Graduation

Percentage

  of Time Post M

FA W

orking as an 

Artist

Exhibitions In order to determine whether the CMU Grads had success in exhibiting their work, I reviewed whether the graduates identified solo exhibitions and exhibiting work in museums. Forty-eight of the graduates identified having had a solo exhibition, which is 40% of the total group, but over two-thirds of those who are still working artists. It can be expected that some of those who are no longer working as artists had solo exhibitions, but probably fewer than those who are still exhibiting. The overall percentage of artists with solo exhibitions should be somewhere between 40% and 67%.

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Similar to Ms. Bolt, many of the CMU Grad’s work is interdisciplinary, which tends to lend itself to participation in group exhibits, so this is an extremely high success rate in exhibiting work in solo shows. And with the exhibit for which this report is being prepared, Ms. Bolt clearly will be included in the CMU Grads with solo exhibitions. Only 7.6% of the graduates listed exhibiting work in a museum. I used some judgment in evaluating both the significance of the exhibit and the significance of the museum, and excluded listings that did not appear to be regular exhibits, or museums that appeared to focus regionally or otherwise be less beneficial to promoting the artist’s career. Excluding those graduates no longer exhibiting, the percentage jumps up to 12%. It is also relevant to note that looking at the artists still working who graduated more than 10 years ago, the percentage exhibiting in museums goes up slightly, indicating that the longer the artist works, the more likely they are to be exhibited in a museum. This is not necessarily intuitive given the focus on youth in the art world. Beyond exposure through temporary exhibitions in museums, I reviewed information to determine whether Ms. Bolt will have art acquired and regularly exhibited in museums. Since I live in Washington, DC, I looked to the 2007 study by the Guerilla Girls regarding the percentage of male artists on exhibit at that time in four DC museums3. The results below are not likely to be significantly different today.

Museum Percent Male National Gallery of Art 98% National Portrait Gallery 93% Hirshhorn Museum and Sculpture Garden 95% American Art Museum & Renwick Gallery 88%

These statistics point out the difficulty Ms. Bolt will encounter in having her work acquired and exhibited by major museums. Ms. Bolt’s work is probably more of a challenge for commercial galleries, given that the collectors who gravitate toward the type of work she produces are fewer than those who collect more traditional, though still contemporary work. Since museums do not function to sell art, Ms. Bolt should direct her career toward appealing to museums. If she is able to establish a presence at museums through temporary exhibitions, it will convey to collectors that her work has value and it will be deemed collectible by a wider group of patrons. It will also increase the possibility that her work may be acquired and exhibited by museums. Admittedly, getting museums to show her work is a challenge; Ms. Bolt should make a significant body of work that is of a size and scope to appeal to museums. Financial Sustainability According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (“BLS”), there were 23,600 fine artists working in the US in 2008 and that number is expected to increase to 25,700 by 2018. Of that group, the number of self-employed artists, who are likely to support themselves by 3 Guerilla girls, Horror on the National Mall - http://www.guerrillagirls.com/posters/washposthorror.shtml

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selling their artwork, was 14,100 in 2008, growing to 14,800 by 2018. According to the same study, the median income for salaried fine artists was $42,650. The BLS did not provide an estimate for self-employed fine artists but noted, “[m]any, however, find it difficult to rely solely on income earned from selling paintings or other works of art.”4 The competition for exhibition slots in commercial galleries and other venues that sell contemporary art will likely increase, since the number of such exhibition spaces is not likely to match the increase in the number of fine artists. Ms. Bolt is therefore unlikely to be able to support herself from selling her artwork and will have to secure other employment unless she is otherwise able to support herself without working. Due to periods of very intense effort in the creation of her work, she will not be able to work a typical 40-hour work week and continue to create art as she currently does. I can report from my experience as a participant that it was difficult to keep up with my limited responsibilities for this project while working a full time job. Should she seek employment, Ms. Bolt will most probably work in a field that is related to her training at CMU. Recognition by the General Public One key element for an artist desiring to cross over and become recognized by the general public is to get press coverage in significant media outlets. I reviewed the exposure CMU Grads received in nationally significant newspapers and periodicals. Again there was a subjective element in this determination. I tended to exclude coverage in major metropolitan newspapers if it was the home town paper of the artist, unless that town was one of the major US art centers – New York, Los Angeles, or Chicago. Based on my criteria, 11% of the CMU Grads received such exposure. That figure rose to 18% if I only considered those artists who are still active. And again, when I looked at only those artists who had graduated at least 10 years ago, the figure increases slightly to 20%, indicating some benefit of perseverance. I also considered the hypotheses that there is not currently a living artist with broad recognition among the general public, and that most artists known to the general public are male. To test these hypotheses, I gave a two-question survey to a sample of acquaintances who do not follow the art world. I asked them to 1) name a living nationally, or internationally known artist and 2) name a nationally, or internationally known female artist. They were instructed to write “none” if no one came to mind. Only three respondents (out of 9) wrote something other than “none” and two of those respondents listed artists who, upon review, did not meet the criteria. One respondent named Damien Hirst and Joan Mitchell. All of the respondents who answered something other than “none” listed a man for the first question. This, admittedly limited, sample supports both hypotheses mentioned above. This is not to say that living artists can no longer gain recognition with the general public, but that it is difficult, and doubly so for female artists. Artists who have gained wide recognition outside the art world generally

4 Occupational Outlook Handbook, 2010-11 Edition - http://www.bls.gov/oco/ocos092.htm#emply

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fall into one of two categories – those who attract attention by being outrageous (e.g., Warhol, Dali) and those who have a sentimental appeal (e.g., Rockwell, Wyeth). Ms. Bolt has already received recognition in a significant magazine – Harper’s, and also in the Washington Post, so she has taken a step in the direction of general name recognition, but she has significant obstacles to overcome in order to achieve that status. While her work does have a very personal element to it, I do not believe she can gain general recognition through the sentimental appeal approach. The nature of her work puts her in position to strive for recognition by being outrageous. Summary While not a prediction of the future, a coordinated vision of a future for Ms. Bolt is that she will complete her MFA from Carnegie Mellon University in 2012. After graduation, she will get a technology job that gives her flexibility to work an irregular schedule. She will continue to create work that involves intervention. This will include developing a body of work that involves the occasional recurrent use of people she has worked with in the past. The new work will focus on challenging the relationships she developed with those people. This particular body of work will achieve both critical and popular success and will result in an exhibit at the Museum of Modern Art in 2021 that includes, among other work, this document. The MoMA exhibit will give Ms. Bolt exposure that will result in sustained attention in the art press for her future exhibitions, and exposure in the celebrity press for her non-art activities. This report has been prepared by,

Philip Barlow September 2, 2011 Attachments: Attachment 1 – Agnes Bolt Curriculum Vitae Attachment 2 – Day 2: Expertise Attachment 3 - Carnegie Mellon University - MFA Graduates 1985 - 2009 Cover photo courtesy of Agnes Bolt

AGNES BOLTBorn Krakow, Poland, 1980Living and working in Pittsburgh, PA and Brooklyn, NY

Selected Exhibitions and Performance

2011 Upcoming Solo exhibition, Project 4 Gallery, Washington D.C. Sisters of the Lattice: Interventions into Tourism, select locations in Romania and Italy, July 2011 Independence Returns, Microscope Gallery, Brooklyn, NY Tempo, organized by linearossa at .NO Gallery, NYC BYOB Venezia, as part of the Internet Pavilion, 54th Venice Biennale Pittsburgh Billboard Project, selected by Graham Shearing, Pittsburgh, PA Fresh Baked Goods, Bakery Square Center, Pittsburgh, PA

2010 BYOB, curated by Rafael Rozendaal, Spencer Brownstone Gallery, NYC Double Rainbow, Graduate Panels, Carnegie Mellon University, May 2010 Bring Your Own Beamer, Space Gallery, Pittsburgh, PA Independence, Microscope Gallery, Brooklyn, NY Eat Me, Fundraiser Show, Future Tenant Gallery, Pittsburgh, PA Fool’s Gold, UnSmoke Gallery, Braddock, PA Tough Art Exhibition, Children’s Museum of Art, Pittsburgh, PA Pittsburgh Billboard Project, selected by Eric Shiner, Milton Fine Curator of Art at the Andy Warhol Museum, Pittsburgh, PA Quiet in the Land? Future Tenant Gallery, curated by Dan Byers, Curator Carnegie Museum of Art, Pittsburgh, PA Visual Voices, Stedman Gallery, Rutgers-Camden Center for the Arts, NJ Lucid Directions, Richmond Center for Visual Arts, MI

2009 Just Visiting, Goldway Gallery. Braddock, PA Good Work, Installation, Carnegie Mellon Doherty Gallery (Solo) Hole Interactive Performance. Carnegie Mellon University The Real and The Unreal, Internationale Sommerakademie für Bildende Kunst Salzburg, Austria Fulfiller, Installation, 3rd Ward Gallery, Brooklyn, NY 2008 Performance with Dillon de Give, Dark Eyed Junco, Calvert Vaux Park, NY Karma Hoax video and performance for Stars Like Fleas, Monkeytown, Brooklyn, NY Performance, with Dillon de Give, The Endale Epoch, Prospect Park, Brooklyn, NY Performance with Dillon de Give, The Great Extemporizer, Baltimore Transmodern Festival, MD

2007 And Now... And Now, BRIC Studios, Brooklyn, NY Come One Come All, Performance and Installation , 3rd Ward, Brooklyn

2006 Laughing Club Public Performances, 2005-6 The House Installation, ” Noh Gallery Collective, Brooklyn, NY Killer Capote, Audio performance in collaboration with Montgomery Knott , Monkeytown, Brooklyn, NY

Screenings

Souvenirs from E

arth, European V

ideo art channel, featured artist, 2011-present, screened in G

ermany and F

rance in C

entre Pompidou, Paris am

ong othersC

aught Looking IV, P

NC

Park Jumbotron V

ideo Show, curated by Jacob Ciocci and A

ndrew Swensen, P

ittsburgh, PA, 2010

Video Screening, A

rtist Image R

esource 9th A

nnual Benefit, P

ittsburgh, PA, 2010

A F

ew P

lays About the D

ark Performance Festival video screening. T

he Lutheran C

hurch of Brooklyn, N

Y, 200

9Jerry video screening, M

oMA

Staff Exhibition, M

useum of M

odern Art, N

YC

, 200

8

Aw

ards and Distinctions

Fine Foundation A

rtist Grant, 2011

Heinz E

ndowm

ent Small A

rts Initiative Grant, 2010

A.W

. Mellon E

ducational & C

haritable Trust F

und Project G

rant, 2010Sim

onds Fellowship, 2010P

uffin Foundation Artist G

rant, 2010K

osciuszko Foundation Graduate Scholar A

ward, 2010 &

2011G

USH

Grant, C

arnegie Mellon U

niversity, 2010Tough A

rt Residency, C

hildren’s Museum

of Pittsburgh, Sum

mer 2010

C.G

. Douglas C

orrigan Travel Fellowship, 2010

& 2011

Graduate A

ssistantship Fellowship, Carnegie M

ellon University, 20

09

-2012

Full G

rant from A

ssociation of the Friends of the Som

merakadem

ie für Bildende K

unst Salzburg, Summ

er 200

9C

AS T

rustee Academ

ic Scholaraship (19

97

-2001

)Founder’s A

cademic Scholarships (1

99

7-20

01) and graduated w

ith honors

Publications

The B

raddocks, artist produced book, released Fall 2011. E

ssay by Dan B

yers; designed by Brett Yasko

Artisfear.tum

blr.com. Journal of events from

the Collector’s perspective during C

ollector’s Project Perform

ance

Select P

ressH

arper’s Magazine. R

eadings. August, 2011

Featured Virtual Studio V

isit on Sickoftheradio.com, A

ugust 2011C

apps, Kriston. “Together, patron and artist endure a live-in, week-long perform

ance art project.” Washington Post, M

ay 15

,2011G

reen, Tyler. M

odern Art N

otes. Artinfo, M

ay 16

, 2011G

reenwood, Arin. “A

gnes Bolt Is Sm

elling Ripe A

fter a Week in the P

lexiglass Bubble.” W

ashington City Paper, M

ay 14

, 2011N

BC

Washington N

ews. “Artist Spending W

eek in Living-R

oom B

ubble”. May 11

, 2011Featured on w

ww.sickoftheradio.com

, Novem

ber 24

, 2010Featured on w

ww.todayandtom

orrow.net, Novem

ber 6, 2010

R

ozendaal, Rafael. w

ww.new

rafael.com, 2010

Levine, M

arty. Pop City. Septem

ber 16

, 2010B

rittany Yam. P

ushPin G

allery Blog. Featured A

rtist in May, 2010

Sloss, Eric. C

ollege of FineA

rt Lab6

Podcast, Guest A

rtist, ww

w.cfa.cmu.edu/labA

6.php?sub_page=

media, 2010

Rice, Scott. Seattle G

ay News, Feb. 1

3, 20

09

Curatorial and P

rofessional G

uest Panel Artist, V

isual Voices Symposium

, Stedman G

allery, Rutgers-C

amden C

enter for the Arts, 2010

Guest A

rtist lecture, Osher L

ifelong Learning Institute at C

arnegie Mellon, 2010

G1

8 G

raduate Student Presentation, K

resge Theater, C

arnegie Mellon U

niversity, 200

9C

o-Curator, 4

Part Sustainability and Art L

ecture Series, Museum

of Modern A

rt, first event April 6

th, 200

9C

urator, Eco A

rt Staff Video Screening w

ith artists such as Fritz H

aeg, SuperFlex,A

ndrea Polli, FutureFarm

ers,M

ichel de Brion. M

useum of M

odern Art, A

pril, 200

8 and 20

09

Creative T

ime’s exhibition Strange Powers, docent July- Septem

ber 200

6A

rt:21: A

rt in the 21st C

entury, Curatorial A

ssistant, Season 3, 20

06

Curator, various art and perform

ance events at, Noh G

allery Collective, 20

04

-Spring 200

5B

arely, by Seth Cluett, curated audio-based pool installation. G

alapagos Art Space, B

rooklyn, NY, 20

03

Education

MFA

candidate, Carnegie M

ellon University School of F

ineArt, 201

2B

A, N

ew York U

niversity, College of A

rts and Science, New

York, 19

97

-2001

Instituto Internacional, M

adrid, Spain, 19

99

Teaching

Teaching Assistant, C

arnegie Mellon U

niversity, Fall 200

9-Spring 201

2

Advanced C

ontextual Practice; C

oncept Studios; Site-Specific Art Studio

Subject: Re: Day 2From: Agnes Bolt <agnes@agnesbolt.com>Date: 8/19/2011 8:04 PMTo: Philip Barlow <pbar@verizon.net>

On 8/19/11 7:51 PM, "Philip Barlow" <pbar@verizon.net> wrote:

You are an artist, but my knowledge of your work is limited to performance‐based work. I assume that all art springs from a grounding in more traditional techniques. So for yourtask, I would like you to draw an image of the two of us together. The drawing should be done without referencing any images of either of us during the actual creation of thedrawing. I realize we will be interacting over the next several days and that you will see my image at times during the period and that is ok, but the drawing itself should be done frommemory. I would also like the drawings to be “of scale” so that you have to make an assumption of our relative sizes, since we have never actually been together in person.

On 8/19/2011 9:18 AM, Agnes Bolt wrote:

Day 2 Dear Philip,

Re: Day 2

1 of 2 8/28/2011 7:46 PM

Attachment 3

1

Carnegie Mellon University - MFA Graduates 1985 - 2009 Class of 2009 1 Jennifer Gooch 2 Joseph Hays 3 Samina Mansuri 4 Michael Nixon 5 Gregory Witt

Class of 2008 6 Christopher Beauregard 7 Michelle Fried 8 Benjamin Kinsley 9 Eileen Maxson 10 John Peña 11 Allison Reeves Class of 2007 12 Lauren Adams 13 Matthew R Barton 14 Jan Descartes 15 David Halsell 16 Ian Ingram 17 Gunnhildur Johnsdottir 18 Cassandra C Jones 19 David Tinapple Class of 2006 20 Lilith Bailey-Kroll 21 Cheryl L. Casteen 22 William Cravis 23 Takehito Etani 24 Tiffany Sum Class of 2005 25 Jacob Ciocci 26 Adam Davies 27 Carolyn Lambert 28 Mario Marzan 29 Suzannah Paul 30 Siobhan Rigg 31 Ruth Stanford Class of 2004 32 Alexi Goodrich 33 Fereshteh Hamidi-Toosi

34 Shana Moulton Class of 2003 35 Chung Yean Cho 36 Fredrick M. Dixon 37 Naomi Falk 38 Anat Pollack Class of 2002 39 Sean Bidic 40 R. Brad McCombs 41 Todd Pavlisko 42 Semi Ryu 43 Mary Brooke Singer Class of 2001 44 Krista Connerly 45 S. Emily De Araujo 46 George Magalios 47 Rosina Santana 48 Evan Tapper 49 Rebecca Vaughan Class of 2000 50 Cooper Burchenal 51 Peter Coffin 52 Peter Coppin 53 Thomas Feulmer 54 Carolina Loyola-Garcia 55 Elizabeth Monoian Class of 1999 56 Marc Boehlen 57 Hyla Willis 58 Ricardo Miranda Zuniga Class of 1998 59 Ping Cao 60 Kimberly Hover 61 Chris Thunblom

Attachment 3

2

Carnegie Mellon University - MFA Graduates 1985 - 2009 Class of 1997 62 Sandra Budd 63 Steffi Domike 64 Jon Dunn 65 Christina Hung 66 Laleh Mehran 67 Leah Piepgras 68 Katherine Walazek Class of 1996 69 Consuelo Echeverria 70 Colin Piepgras 71 Carlos Szembek 72 Paul Vanouse Class of 1995 73 Yaming Di 74 Catharine Fichtner 75 Josette Ghiseline 76 Christopher Siefert Class of 1994 77 Andrew Johnson 78 Amy Novelli 79 Beth Sallan 80 Megan Shay 81 Andres Tapia Urzua Class of 1993 82 Todd Bartel Class of 1992 83 Martin Beck 84 Douglas Hewitt 85 Alaa Eldin Ibrahim 86 Anne Jochimsen 87 Akemi Ohira Class of 1991 88 Robert Dunn Class of 1990 89 Ursula Cornejo-Soto

90 Robert Ferguson 91 Barbara Kuller 92 Mayumi Matsuo 93 Frederick Miller 94 Patricia Perrone 95 Robin Sussman Class of 1989 96 James Duncan 97 Edward Inks 98 Glenn Ricci 99 Barry Shields 100 Matthew Wrbican Class of 1988 101 Douglas Goldsmith 102 David Hawbaker 103 Martha Jackson 104 James Kocher-Hillmer 105 John Lysak 106 Margaret Rose Class of 1987 107 Brian Hall 108 Agnes Klein 109 Ragnhildur Stefansdottir 110 Elizabeth Van Dusen 111 Ellen Ward Class of 1986 112 Martin Cohen 113 Joan Mertz 114 Heather Rockwell Class of 1985 115 Brian Buckley 116 Isabelle Moldovan 117 Joel Pace 118 Steven Vradelis