BofAML Presentation Septembre 2014v3 › corp › files › 1454337642834 › e… · Q2 12 Q4 12...
Transcript of BofAML Presentation Septembre 2014v3 › corp › files › 1454337642834 › e… · Q2 12 Q4 12...
Banco Sabadell
BoAML19th CEO Conference
London, 30 September 2014
Enhancing profitability in a low interest rate environment
Jaime GuardiolaConsejero Delegado
Disclaimer
Banco Sabadell cautions that this presentation may contain forward looking statements with respect to the business. financial condition. results of operations. strategy. plans and objectives of the Banco Sabadell Group. While these forward looking statements represent our judgement and future expectations concerning the development of our business. a certain number of risks. uncertainties and other important factors could cause actual developments and results to differ materially from our expectations. These factors include. but are not limited to. (1) general market. Macroeconomic. governmental. political and regulatory trends. (2) movements in local and international securities markets. currency exchange rate. and interest rates. (3) competitive pressures. (4) technical developments. (5) changes in the financial position or credit worthiness of our customers. obligors and counterparts. These risk factors could adversely affect our business and financial performance published in our past and future filings and reports. including those with the Spanish Securities and Exchange Commission (Comisión Nacional del Mercado de Valores).
Banco Sabadell is not nor can it be held responsible for the usage. valuations. opinions. expectations or decisions which might be adopted by third parties following the publication of this information.
Financial information by business areas is presented according to GAAP as well as internal Banco Sabadell group´s criteria as a result of which each division reflects the true nature of its business. These criteria do not follow any particular regulation and can include forecasts and subjective valuations which could represent substantial differences should another methodology be applied.
The distribution of this presentation in certain jurisdictions may be restricted by law. Recipients of this presentation should inform themselves about and observe such restrictions.
These slides do not constitute or form part of any offer for sale or subscription of or solicitation or invitation of any offer to buy or subscribe to any securities nor shall they or any one of them form the basis of or be relied on in connection with any contract or commitment whatsoever.
2
1. Spanish economy
2. Banco Sabadell’s current position
3. Business dynamics
4. New Business Plan
-1.0
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
m/m change, % y/y change, % (right axis)
0.6
-0.3
0.10.2
0.4
-0.1
-1
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
Q2 12 Q4 12 Q2 13 Q4 13 Q2 14
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
3
The economic recovery is gaining traction in Spain …
Sources: Spanish Statistical Office (INE) and Ministry of Labour.
Industrial production (year-on-year variation in %, seasonally adjusted)
Social Security contributors (seasonally adjusted)
Real GDP (quarterly variation, %)
GDP increased in 2Q14 at its fastest pace since early 2008
-60
-40
-20
0
20
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
-35-30
-25-20
-15-10-5
05
1015
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
4Sources: Bank of Spain, Spanish Statistical Office (INE) and Ministry of Economy.
… supported by the improvement in domestic demand
Retail sales(year-on-year variation in %)
Investment in capital goods(year-on-year variation in %)
Apparent cement consumption(year-on-year variation in %, seasonally adjusted)
Domestic demand (contribution to GDP growth)
1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14
-4.3 -3.6 -2.1 -0.6 +0.7 +1.9
150
170
190
210
230
250
270
290
310
330
350
2011 2012 2013 2014
Registered portfolio Portfolio to maturity
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
5
Spanish banks ECB usage Euros in billion
The recovery is finding supportin the more favourable financial conditions …
Sources: Bank of Spain and Bloomberg.
Non-resident holdings of Spanish Treasury debt Euros in billion
Spanish 10-year government bonds spread (b.p.)
Credit rating
Rating Outlook
S&P’s BBB Stable
Moody’s Baa2 Positive
Fitch BBB+ Stable
Moody‘s (Feb14), Fitch (Apr14) and S&P’s (May14) improved the rating of Spain by one notch
100
110
120
130
140
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014Spain Euro area
0.8
-10.0
-0.1
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 Q214
202206
230
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 Q1 14
4
6
8
10
12
14
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
Spain Euro area6
Private sector debt (% of GDP)Current account balance (%of GDP)
Investment in housing (% of GDP)Unit labour cost (2000 = 100)
Sources: Bank of Spain, ECB, AMECO and INE.
… in the realised progress towardscorrecting past accumulated imbalances ...
Cumulative4 quarters
7
… and in the moderation in the intensity of the budgetary adjustment
Sources: European Commission and Ministry of Finance.Note: The impact on the deficit of the support for the financial sector is not considered.
Public sector balance (% of GDP)
Previous deficit targets
Current deficit targets
Public sector balance (% of GDP)
The expected deficit reduction path is feasibleThe expected deficit reduction path is feasible
The softening of the deficit reduction path results in a better balance between fiscal consolidation and boosting economic activity.
-11.1
-9.6-9.1
-6.8
-1.1
-6.6-5.5
-4.2
-2.8
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
37.8 38.5 38.8 38.9 39
44.4 44.043.0
41.740.1
30
35
40
45
50
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Revenue Expenditure
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014Manufacturing Services
8Sources: Bloomberg
The improvement in economicactivity is expected to continue going forward
Business sentiment(index) Activity will continue to be
supported by:� More benign financial conditions
� Lower fiscal effort
� Favorable evolution of exports
� Advance stage of the imbalances adjustment process
And also by:� An improved behaviour of the
construction sector
� Impact of structural reforms
� Normalisation of credit conditions
GDP forecasts (avg. yearly growth rate)
2013 2014e 2015e
Government -1.2 1.2 1.8
Bank of Spain = 1.3 2.0
Funcas consensus = 1.2 1.9
Banco Sabadell = 1.3 2.0
9
1. Spanish economy
2. Banco Sabadell’s current position3. Business dynamics
4. New Business Plan
10
The Spanish financial map has changed
Note: Refers to latest available financial disclosures by entity.
157
162
251
302
358
404
45
77
63
61
57
53
46
Restructuring of the savings banks:
from 45 to 11 entities
Total domestic assets of the main financial entitie s in Spain(Euros in billion)
11
Core Capital
Assets
Loans1
Deposits2
Branches
Employees
2007 2010 2Q 2014 2Q 2014/07
76,776 97,099 161,557
63,165 73,058 122,838
34,717 49,374 95,043
1,225 1,428 2,2473
10,234 10,777 16,9004
X 2.1
X 1.9
X 2.7
X 1.8
X 1.6
(Euros in million)
Loan to deposit
6.0% 8.2% 11.4%5
197% 135% 104%
X 1.9
X 0.5
Improving liquidity and solvency ratios
The bank managed to double in size during the financial crisis
1. Gross loans to customers excluding repos. 2. On-balance sheet customer funds. 3. 2014 forecast. 4. 2015 forecast. 5.2014 data under Basel III regulation vs 2007 and 2010 under Basel II.Note: Loan to deposit ratios is net of provisions and intermediary funding.
12
Taking advantage of inorganic growth opportunities
Total assets (Euros in billion)
Integration year
Recent integrations
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008 €80 bn
€97 bn
€100 bn
€162 bn
€163 bn
€83 bn
13
Improving its position as the preferred entity to do banking with
Ranking of banking relationships*
Source: IFRS Inmark. * Percentage of respondents who value a certain bank as its main bank.
Respondents
Other entities
2012
2013
27,085 28,874 34,543 33,902 36,862 37,082 39,418
53,095 53,81958,408 57,953 57,635 57,608 55,625
8,5858,987
9,693 10,05211,019 12,318 13,705
4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14
An ample customer base and strong growth in funds
Note: on-balance sheet term funds include term deposits and other funds placed in the retail network: preference shares, mandatory convertible bonds, senior debt, commercial paper and other. Excludes repos.
Evolution of customer funds and off-balance sheet funds Euros in million
Sight deposits On-balance sheet term funds
Mutual funds
Acceleration in the growth of AuM and current accounts
14
Million customers6.4
New Customers every week
9,000
Commercial push in the Madrid area to increase market share x2, with a new concept of flagship branches.
Opportunity to gain further market share organically
Identified regions with more room to grow
* Loans and deposits as of March 2014
Banco Sabadell market share* by region
3.1
4.314.7 2.2 4.9
3.44.0
3.13.5
15.0
3.4
2.11.014.7
8.616.4
3.4
15
There is still room to grow in certain regions
Spain Market Share(pro-forma)
7.8%
16
1. Spanish economy
2. Banco Sabadell’s current position
3. Business dynamics4. New Business Plan
Net interest income is showing a steady increase …
Net interest income evolutionEuros in million
* Excludes BMN-Penedés network, Lloyds Spain and Banco Gallego
451.2414.6
451.2497.7
530.0 545.9
1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14
� Net interest income 1H14:
+24.3% YoY
� Net interest income 1H14 like-for-like*:
+17.9% YoY
17
18
… as continued repricing of term deposits drives down the cost of the back book …
Contractual rates on term depositsIn percentage
Stock New production/renewals
New term deposits at 1%
3.26% 3.35%3.58%
3.36%3.13%
2.84%
2.37%2.16%
1.83%2.50%
3.06%
3.39%
2.16%1.85%
1.61%1.51%
1.29%1.05%
Jun-12 Dec-12 Jun-13 Dec-13 Jun-14
19
… at the same time as there is limited downward pressure on the loan yield
Evolution of loan spreads by segmentIn percentage
Spreads on new loan production remain significantly above the spreads on the back book
Back book
Front book
Back book
Front book
Back book
Front book
Mortgages to individuals 88 229 87 227 89 214
SME 269 526 270 500 277 492
Corporates 268 342 268 327 266 302
4Q13 1Q14 2Q14
25.9 28.6 31.4 37.5 39.7 48.6
52.4 53.8 53.3 52.8 53.455.3
90.1105.9 108.5
119.5 107.9109.6
1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14
20
Commission income is growing …
Commission income evolutionEuros in million
Asset Mgmt1 ServicesLending1 Including mutual funds commissions and pension funds and insurance brokerage
188.2
168.4
193.2209.8 201.0
* Excluding BMN-Penedés network, Lloyds Spain and Banco Gallego
213.5 � Commission income 1H14
+16.2% YoY
� Commission income 1H14 like-for-like*:
+8.3% YoY
2,760 2,953
3,081 3,417
4,4404,902
1,2471,531790
901
March 2014 June 2014
21
… driven by strong performance in mutual funds
Evolution by type of investment fund Euros in million
12,31813,705
Equity fundsBalanced funds
Fixed income funds Guaranteed funds
SICAV, External funds and Others
+11.3%
+10.9%
+7.0%
+10.4%
+22.8%
+14.1%
� Bias towards higher margin products
� Annualised growth rate of 53% in funds under management
59.4% 60.0% 61.0% 59.6%56.3% 55.6%
Mar.13 Jun.13 Sep.13 Dec.13 Mar.14 Jun.14
22
The cost to income ratio is improving: in line with the Triple business plan
*Adjusting operating income for non-recurrent trading income. Same criteria applies for all quarters.
1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14
Employee and branch evolutionIn number
Cost income evolution *
In percentage
Branches Employees
2,202
16,754
14,957
1,889
2,382
17,253
2,418
18,077
2,336
17,698
Banco CAM BMN-Penedés & Lloyds Spain Banco Gallego
28,894
28,350
27,943 27,881 27,898 27,932
28,298
Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-140
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14
23
Loan growth is being reactivated
SME and company loans evolutionEuros in million
Monthly residential mortgage productionEuros in million
* Excludes BMN-Penedés network, Lloyds Spain and Banco Gallego in 2014
Jun-14
Note: SME and company loans includes loans to SMEs, corporates and public sector
During the month of June the SME and company loans book grew by €366M; +1.5% QoQ
In 1H14 the number of new mortgages increased by 54% YoY with volume growth of 61% YoY(43% and 50% like-for-like*)
14.218.7 15.6
12.1
7.0
7.9
4.17.5
2.3
2.4
2.0 2.3
Dec-12 Jun-13 Dec-13 Jun-14
24
Fixed income portfolio remains unchanged
Fixed income portfolio evolutionEuros in million
Spanish government debt Other
Life insurance portfolio (Mediterráneo Vida)
21.226.6
19.7 19.6
ALCO portfolioEuros in billion and in percentage
The ALCO portfolio contribution is stable
Jun-13 Dec-13 Jun-14
ALCO portfolio 26.6 19.7 19.6
% of total assets 15.6% 12.1% 12.1%
Duration (in years) 3.8 4.9 5.0
Yield 3.3% 3.9% 3.5%
ECB liquidity position 18.0 8.8 5.5
25
Strong capital levels
Capital ratios. Core capital Basel III phase-inIn percentage
Note: According to “circular 2/2014”
11.1%11.4%
1Q14 2Q14
22,99422,825
22,673
4Q13 1Q14 2Q14
6,973 7,037 7,185
5,506 5,570 5,602
4Q13 1Q14 2Q14RE assets ex-APS RE assets APS
16,021 15,788 15,488
8,874 8,841 8,611
4Q13 1Q14 2Q14Total NPLs ex-APS Total NPLs APS
26
The stock of NPLs continues the downward trend …NPL evolution Euros in million
On-balance sheet RE assets evolution Euros in million
Total problematic assets, ex-APS Euros in million
24,895 24,629 24,099
12,479 12,607 12,787
Note: NPLs include contingent risk
� €300M further reduction of NPLs, ex-APS, during 2Q14
� Second consecutive quarter showing a decline in total problematic assets, ex-APS
2Q14 BS ex-APS APS Total
Real estate assets 40.5% 50.8% 45.0%
Real estate development loans 33.8% 47.4% 40.1%
Total real estate exposure 37.0% 48.9% 42.3%
Construction 12.2% 5.3% 10.3%
Large Corporates 6.5% 46.5% 8.2%
SME and small retailers and self-employed 8.5% 20.6% 9.6%
Individuals 3.8% 12.6% 4.2%
Rest of loan book 5.6% 20.2% 6.4%
Total 9.7% 39.5% 13.8%
27
… maintaining high coverage levels
Coverage by loan segment and real estate assetsSplit between asset protection scheme and rest
Comfortable coverage levels relative to expected loss levels
� 13.8% Global coverage of total loans and RE assets
� 9.7% Global coverage of total loans and RE assets, ex-APS
Real estate market turning signs
28
House price evolution In %
Source: Social research centre polls, INE, Public works Ministry
� Pick-up in transactions in 2014 (INE, Public works Ministry)
� Price increase in 10 regions in 2Q14 (INE)
� House price expectations are improvingThe proportion of people expecting house price declines has changed from over 50% in 2012 to below 25% in 2014 (Social research centre)
� Rental yields are improving (BoS)
-18
-15
-12
-9
-6
-3
0
3
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
29
Solvia has become a leader real estate company increasing its brand recognition
One of the largest sales platform in Spain
Commercialisation and servicing
Commercialisation and servicing
Real Estate BusinessReal Estate Business Asset ManagementAsset Management
Transformation (land transformation and development capabilities)
Transformation (land transformation and development capabilities)
Institutional SalesInstitutional SalesReal estate as an
investment product Real estate as an
investment product
Solvia S
� Launch of house rentals initiatives
� Third party servicing
� Institutional and retail sales
Solvia brand recognition is
improving and growing significantly
among potential house buyers
826
1,2371,319
1H2012 1H2013 1H2014
Maintaining good sales results
Sales evolutionEuros in million
30
Increase in sales in 1H14
Solvia12%market share in Spanish property sales
+50%
+7%
31
1. Spanish economy
2. Banco Sabadell’s current position
3. Business dynamics
4. New Business Plan
32
� Selective growth
� Increasing profitability
� Reducing problematic assets
� Improving efficiency levels
The new Business Plan focuses on:The new Business Plan focuses on:
Loan-to-deposits 2016100%
2016 profit€ 1bn
Credit growth (CAGR 13-16)
1%
Efficiency ratio 201640%
ROTE 201612%
Banco Sabadell Business Plan 2014-2016
25.428.6
33.5
2013 1H14 2016target
59.6% 55.6%
40.0%
2013 1H14 2016target
1.17%1.36%
1.76%
2013 1H14 2016target
760,0
1.000,0
2013 1H14 2016target
On track with the Triple business plan targets
Net interest marginIn %
CommissionsEuros in million
Efficiency ratioIn %
Off Balance sheet fundsEuros in billion
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33
760.0
1,000.0
Thank you for your attention