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Transcript of Boeing Final presentation
SataLink strategic plan
Unicorn Consulting
SataLink’s position
Case at hand, case for change, constellations, recommendations
SataLink needs to replace 10 satellites that are retiring from 2020 to 2024
• All new satellites must generate revenue by 2023
• Must generate positive cash flow each year through 2027
• No capital raising
• Order to revenue generation time is 36 months
• Earliest order can be placed Jan 1, 2017 operational by 2020
• Boeing’s production capacity is 8 satellites per year
• Finite number of GEO slots
Money Time Space
Competition in the industry is led by several large firms attracted by a large satellite services market
Launch Satellite Services
SataLink specializes in satellite services and will struggle to increase market share inexisting territories due to large established players.
Satellite manufacturing
A
B
C
• Target emerging markets in Africa and Eastern Europe boasting high growth
• Escape competition and low revenues in Americas
• Bolster fleet with a few large 1000L satellites• Transition to smaller 600S and dual launch satellites• Take advantage of cost-reducing dual launches
• Kickstart cash flows with lowest transponder costs• Keep interest payments under control with 5-10% debt retirement• Focus on raising transponder fill rate
Satalink needs to focus smaller satellites in emerging markets such as the Middle East, Africa, and Asia.
Capture market share quickly with cheap transponders from 1000L, then use 600S to diversify the fleet.
North America
South America
Europe
Middle East
Africa
Asia
Oceania
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
2032
Esat 1
Aosat 1
Asat 2
Esat 2
Aosat 2Asat 1 Asat 3
Mafsat 1
Aosat 3Asat 4
Esat 3Asat 6 Asat 5
Esat 4
Aosat 4
Aosat 3
1000L
600S
Old
Key
Phase 1
Phase 2
A
B
C
• Target emerging markets in Africa and Eastern Europe boasting high growth
• Escape competition and low revenues in Americas
• Bolster fleet with a few large 1000L satellites• Transition to smaller 600S and dual launch satellites• Take advantage of cost-reducing dual launches
• Kickstart cash flows with lowest transponder costs• Keep interest payments under control with 5-10% debt retirement• Focus on raising transponder fill rate
Satalink needs to focus smaller satellites in emerging markets such as the Middle East, Africa, and Asia.
The global market for satellites is growing with an emphasis on emerging markets.
Revenue & Growth Rate by Region Revenue & Growth Rate by Segment
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Africa/Middle East Americas Asia/Oceania Europe
Satellite market revenue and growth
Satalink Revenue Market size ($B) Growth Rate
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Launch Industry Ground Equipment Satellite Services Satellite Manufacturing
Satellite market by segment
SataLink revenue Revenue by Segment ($B) Growth Rate
• Competition is strong due to high barriers to entry – around 7 companies capture 80% of the market
• The industry is limited by the number of new contracts demanded each year
• Due to large upfront costs, risk assurance plays a large part before contracts can be completed
• Demand for satellite services (TV, radio etc) grew by 4% in 2013
• Developing countries account for 63% of the 3.2 billion internet users
• Oil & Gas needs satellite services due to remote locations – the segment is set to grow by 28% to $460m in 2020.
• Government communications account for 14% global market
The global satellite market is driven mainly by the growing demand of the communications and telecom industries.
Market drivers
• New launch technologies drive down launch costs e.g. Falcon 9 re-usable rocket
• Small satellites increasingly common for earth imaging
• All electric satellites provide more functionality and lower costs
• Satellites designed for dual manifesting supply versatility
Demand Technology RaceSupply
Currently the operation is spread globally with a concentration in the Americas
70
90
70
50
50
70
70
100
90
50
90
80
60
50
Esat
Asat
MAfsat
AOsat
100
Smaller market
Larger market
Our recommendation would have the constellation changed to focus in the Middle East and Africa
1000L
600 SEsat
Asat
MAfsat
AOsat
90
100
70
220
90
100
90
220
220
220
220
7070
Smaller market
Larger market
70
One third of Eastern Europe’s GDP growth can be attributed to ICT from 1995-2007. The commercial sector occupied 46% of transponders in 2013.
Population by Age Internet Penetration Sat. TV Penetration
Technology Hours Per Day
Political Economy Consumer Culture
Communications Players
0-1415%
15-2411%
25-5442%
55-6413%
65+19%
5.8hrs• Strong real incomes• Increasing
employment• Nationalistic
Internet78%
No Internet22%
£ 6.3 billion
£ 7.632 billionSatellite
35%
DTT17%
Cable8%IPTV
6%
None34%
£ 6.3 billion
• Border instability, no overarching body
• Rising exports• High inflation
Sources: ICT, Rand.org
Both Africa and the Middle East have experienced rapid growth in discretionary spending in recent years. TV revenues for one are expected to double in the next ten years.
Population by Age Internet Penetration
Technology Hours Per Day
Consumer Culture
0-1425%
15-2425%
25-5438%
55-648%
65+4%
4.8hrs• High birth rates• Link for
intercontinental trade
• 85% rural
Internet52%
No Internet48%
Sat. TV Penetration
Political Economy
Communications Players
Satellite13%
DTT0%
Cable24%
IPTV7%
None57%
$ 1.3 billion
$ 2.6 billion
$ .5 billion
• Large defence budgets
• Driven by energy exports
Sources: ICT, Rand.org
Southeast Asia is the epicentre of the developing world and is becoming rapidly more connected.
Population by Age Internet Penetration
Technology Hours Per Day
Consumer Culture
0-1433%
15-2420%
25-5440%
55-644%
65+3%
7.5hrs• Large working age
population• Recent increase in
social mobility• Mobile platforms key
Internet40%
No Internet60%
Sat. TV Penetration
Political Economy
Communications Players
$2.14 billion.Satellite18%
DTT0%
Cable22%
IPTV25%
None35%
$ 1.9 billion
$ 1.4 billion
• Need for improved infrastructure
• Impending evolution of ASEAN and collaboration
Sources: ICT, Statistica
A
B
C
• Target emerging markets in Africa and Eastern Europe boasting high growth
• Escape competition and low revenues in Americas
• Bolster fleet with a few large 1000L satellites• Transition to smaller 600S and dual launch satellites• Take advantage of cost-reducing dual launches
• Kickstart cash flows with lowest transponder costs• Keep interest payments under control with 5-10% debt retirement• Focus on raising transponder fill rate
Satalink needs to focus smaller satellites in emerging markets such as the Middle East, Africa, and Asia.
Transponders by Region
Region
2016 SataLink
Market Share
Market
Growth Rate
Transponder
Demand in Year N
SataLink Market
Share
Americas 11.8% 5.0% 5390 4.8%
Europe 7.7% 4.5% 3140 9.9%
Middle East / Africa 14.6% 6.0% 2295 16.1%
Asia / Oceania 12.2% 5.0% 3404 4.7%
Total 11.4% 14229 7.7%
Even though the 1000L is capital intensive, it gets us the most bang for our buck in the early years.
• Exceptional operating profit of the 1000L offsets its greater financing cost
600s Debt Obligation $ 170 $ 153 $ 138 $ 124 $ 112 $ 100 $ 90 $ 81 $ 73 $ 66
Cash Flow $ 125 $ 127 $ 128 $ 129 $ 130 $ 131 $ 132 $ 133 $ 134 $ 135
NPV (10 years) $ 857
1000L Debt Obligation $ 400 $ 360 $ 324 $ 292 $ 262 $ 236 $ 213 $ 191 $ 172 $ 155
Cash Flow $ 427 $ 431 $ 434 $ 437 $ 439 $ 442 $ 444 $ 446 $ 448 $ 449
NPV (10 years) $ 2890
• Purchasing the 1000L early allows us to capture market share in critical markets early and take advantage of high growth rates while they last
Transponders by Region
Region
2016 SataLink
Market Share
Market
Growth Rate
Transponder
Demand in Year N
SataLink Market
Share
Americas 11.8% 5.0% 5390 4.8%
Europe 7.7% 4.5% 3140 19.4%
Middle East / Africa 14.6% 6.0% 2295 29.2%
Asia / Oceania 12.2% 5.0% 3404 9.1%
Total 11.4% 14229 13.0%
Market Share in 2023 Using 1000L Market Share in 2023 Using 600S
SataLink’s bulk buy will take place in two main stages, the first focusing on revenue growth/cost efficiency and the second centred on diversification.
Stage One
*Each stage is compared against the opportunity cost of an alternative investment strategy
Unicorn StrategyStatus Quo Strategy
(Asia/America)
Stage Two
Unicorn StrategyStatus Quo Strategy
(Asia/America)
Average Cost Per Transponder
Transponder Fill Rate
Net Cash Flows
Average Revenue Per Transponder
• Larger Sats
$2.4M$1.8M• Smaller Sats
$1.8-2.3M $1.5-1.8M
90% 80%
Regions with ~20%+ Market Share (Power)
2 0 $-
$500
$1000
$1500
$2000
$2500
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Unicorn Status Quo
Our financial strategy is meant to weather worst case macroeconomic conditions.
We have conducted a sensitivity analysis for the following considerations:Tax Rate, Variable Interest Rate, Cost Growth, Cost of Capital, Financing Percentage, Debt Retirement
Main scenario4 600S’s and 5 1000L’s
Satellite Error600S knocked out of fleet
Financing ProblemsHigh Interest Rate, High Debt Retirement
Tax Rate 9%
Debt Interest Rate 9%
Cost Growth .5%
Cost of Capital 8.3%
Financing Percentage 80%
Debt Retirement per year 5-10%
Revenue Growth Rates ~3%
NPV ($MM) 6,808
Tax Rate 9%
Debt Interest Rate 19%
Cost Growth 1%
Cost of Capital 12%
Financing Percentage 70%
Debt Retirement per year 15%
Revenue Growth Rates 0%
NPV ($MM) 5,065
Tax Rate 9%
Debt Interest Rate 9%
Cost Growth .5%
Cost of Capital 8.3%
Financing Percentage 80%
Debt Retirement per year 5-10%
Revenue Growth Rates 1%
NPV ($MM) 6,506
Overall, our main scenario lowers debt obligation from $3.2B at the beginning of the case to only $1.6B by 2028.
A
B
C
• Target emerging markets in Africa and Eastern Europe boasting high growth
• Escape competition and low revenues in Americas
• Bolster fleet with a few large 1000L satellites• Transition to smaller 600S and dual launch satellites• Take advantage of cost-reducing dual launches
• Kickstart cash flows with lowest transponder costs• Keep interest payments under control with 5-10% debt retirement• Focus on raising transponder fill rate
Satalink needs to focus smaller satellites in emerging markets such as the Middle East, Africa, and Asia.
Technology trends
Technology Before Now
Reusable rockets
Launch costs very expensive
Launch costs significantly cheaper
• Falcon 9 re-usable rockets
SmallSats Large Smaller and cheaper• Over the past decade, roughly $2.5 billion has
been invested in small satellites
3D printing Labor intensiveManufacture small parts
within days
• Using a rocket consisting of 3D-printed parts, Rocket Lab intends to put small satellites weighing as much as 220 pounds into orbit above the Earth, all for a price of $4.9 million per launch.
Source: State of the Satellite Industry Report
SataLink needs to increase its transponder fill rate in order to capitalize on its transponders and consolidate its fleet.
Our core strategy in emerging markets is to increase video presence and bandwidth. A tiered pricing model and an emphasis on long-term customer relationships will help us integrate vertically within
industries instead of diluting our influence.
Use to increase transponder fill rate
Company
Target Consumers who generate
greatest commercial satellite revenue
New Sales Force
Increase bandwidth to rural, remote and
growing areas
Internet
Integrated tier pricing system for
consumers
Payment
Satellite T.VDemand is bound to
increase as countries grow
GPSProjects
undertaken by Google, Facebook,
Local Governments
Partnerships
Comprises the largest amount of traffic in mobile
channels
Video ServicesPay per year,
set up as a try-before-you-buy
system
Tier 1
Scaled pricing for high volume
customers, long term contracts
Tier 2
Compromises 95% of
Commercial Revenue
SataLink faces several risks following our main scenario
Risk Explanation Impact Risk mitigation
Disruptive technology• Current growth projections are based on historical figures – a disruptive technology can
turn the market on its head
• Active market research team looking for new trends and technology
Production
• There tight time window for orders and launch, causing delayed
• Any production delays will cause significant revenue disruption
• Using best satellite manufacturer (Boeing)• Direct and regular contact with
manufacturer
Finance
• Economic upheaval could lead to lower demand across the board
• Revenue losswould make it tough to finance new satellite purchases as well as maintenance costs
• Insurance for failed orders
New Dual Launch Method May Not Work
• Failed launches could destroy companies image, lose all customers
• Failed launches set back operations schedules significantly
• Continue to send up other satellites using proved launch method to hedge bets
Satellite failure
• Several satellites are successfully launched but never work as expected
• Satellites in GEO can not be adjusted once in orbit
• Have in house engineering team to check on production quality at manufacturer
M
H
M
L
L
Summary
Recommendations, Risks, Timeline
Throughout the next 10 years there are several time critical actions that need to be undertaken
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
1
2
3
Take control of debt payments while purchasing power is limited
Focus launches in North Africa and Eastern Europe
Undertake sales/marketing plan to raise transponder fill rate
Follow trend towards smaller satellites, diversify fleet
Capture market share quickly with cheap transponders from 1000L, then use 600S to diversify the fleet.
North America
South America
Europe
Middle East
Africa
Asia
Oceania
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
2032
Esat 1
Aosat 1
Asat 2
Esat 2
Aosat 2Asat 1 Asat 3
Mafsat 1
Aosat 3Asat 4
Esat 3Asat 6 Asat 5
Esat 4
Aosat 4
A
B
C
• Target emerging markets in Africa and Eastern Europe boasting high growth
• Escape competition and low revenues in Americas
• Bolster fleet with a few large 1000L satellites• Transition to smaller 600S and dual launch satellites• Take advantage of cost-reducing dual launches
• Kickstart cash flows with lowest transponder costs• Keep interest payments under control with 5-10% debt retirement• Focus on raising transponder fill rate
Satalink needs to focus smaller satellites in emerging markets such as the Middle East, Africa, and Asia.
AppendixA. Revenues
B. Costs and Operating Cash Flow
C. Financing Activities
D. Market Data
E. Works Cited
A. SataLink Revenues
SataLink 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
AMERICAS Revenues# of transponders on orbit 430 430 430 430 360 360 240 310 260 260 260 260 260
Transponder fi l l rate 80% 85% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90%
Filled transponders 344 365.5 387 387 324 324 216 279 234 234 234 234 234
Revenue per American transponder $ 1.58 $ 1.58 $ 1.58 $ 1.58 $ 1.63 $ 1.63 $ 1.63 $ 1.63 $ 1.63 $ 1.63 $ 1.68 $ 1.68 $ 1.68
Total Americas Revenues 544$ 577$ 611$ 611$ 527$ 527$ 352$ 454$ 381$ 381$ 392$ 392$ 392$
EUROPE Revenues# of transponders on orbit 170 170 170 170 100 320 540 610 610 610 610 610 610
Transponder fi l l rate 80% 85% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90%
Filled transponders 136 144.5 153 153 90 288 486 549 549 549 549 549 549
Revenue per American transponder $ 2.20 $ 2.20 $ 2.20 $ 2.20 $ 2.22 $ 2.22 $ 2.22 $ 2.22 $ 2.22 $ 2.22 $ 2.24 $ 2.24 $ 2.24
Total Europe Revenues 299$ 318$ 337$ 337$ 200$ 640$ 1080$ 1220$ 1220$ 1220$ 1232$ 1232$ 1232$
AFRICA/ME Revenues# of transponders on orbit 210 210 210 210 430 580 580 670 670 670 670 670 670
Transponder fi l l rate 80% 85% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90%
Filled transponders 168 178.5 189 189 387 522 522 603 603 603 603 603 603
Revenue per American transponder $ 2.00 $ 2.00 $ 2.00 $ 2.00 $ 2.02 $ 2.02 $ 2.02 $ 2.02 $ 2.02 $ 2.02 $ 2.04 $ 2.04 $ 2.04
Total Africa/ME Revenues 336$ 357$ 378$ 378$ 782$ 1054$ 1054$ 1218$ 1218$ 1218$ 1230$ 1230$ 1230$
ASIA/OCEANIA Revenues# of transponders on orbit 280 280 280 280 280 220 390 390 310 310 310 310 310
Transponder fi l l rate 80% 85% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90%
Filled transponders 224 238 252 252 252 198 351 351 279 279 279 279 279
Revenue per American transponder $ 1.64 $ 1.64 $ 1.64 $ 1.64 $ 1.69 $ 1.69 $ 1.69 $ 1.69 $ 1.69 $ 1.69 $ 1.74 $ 1.74 $ 1.74
Total Asia/Oceania Revenues 367$ 390$ 413$ 413$ 426$ 334$ 593$ 593$ 471$ 471$ 485$ 485$ 485$
B. Costs and Operating Cash Flow
Operating Expenses# of sats. on orbit 15 15 15 15 14 14 12 11 12 12 12 12 12
Fixed costs $ (600) $ (603) $ (606) $ (609) $ (612) $ (615) $ (618) $ (621) $ (624) $ (628) $ (631) $ (634) $ (637)
Support costs per sat $ (10) $ (10) $ (10) $ (10) $ (10) $ (10) $ (10) $ (10) $ (10) $ (10) $ (10) $ (10) $ (10)
Sat. support costs $ (151) $ (151) $ (151) $ (151) $ (141) $ (141) $ (121) $ (111) $ (121) $ (121) $ (121) $ (121) $ (121)
Support costs per transponder $ () $ (50,250) $ (50,501) $ (50,754) $ (51,008) $ (51,263) $ (51,519) $ (51,776) $ (52,035) $ (52,296) $ (52,557) $ (52,820) $ (53,084)
Transponder support costs $ (55) $ (55) $ (55) $ (55) $ (60) $ (76) $ (90) $ (103) $ (96) $ (97) $ (97) $ (98) $ (98)
Total Operating Expenses $ (805) $ (809) $ (812) $ (815) $ (812) $ (832) $ (829) $ (834) $ (841) $ (845) $ (849) $ (852) $ (856)
Operating Cash Flow (NET OF TAX) 674$ 759$ 844$ 841$ 1021$ 1569$ 2047$ 2412$ 2228$ 2225$ 2267$ 2264$ 2261$
Assumptions
Cost of Equity 10.0%
Percent of Debt
to Retire 10%
Fixed Cost
Growth Rate
0.5% Proportion of
Equity Funds 20.0%
Support Costs
Growth Rate
0.5% Cost of Debt
(Interest) 9.0%
Interest Rate 9.0% Proportion of
Debt Funds 80.0%
% Payment
Financed
80.0%Tax Rate 9.0%
Cost of
Debt/Equity 0.08372
$-
$500
$1000
$1500
$2000
$2500
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
SataLink Cash Flows
C. Financing Activities
Capital ExpedituresNew Payments due to SC/LV Suppliers -$ -$ -$ -$ 100$ 200$ 200$ 155$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$
Total Payments due to SC/LV Suppliers -$ 100$ 300$ 500$ 655$ 555$ 355$ 155$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$
% of payment financed 80% 80% 80% 80% 80% 80% 80% 80% 80% 80% 80% 80% 80%
Payment financed -$ 80$ 240$ 400$ 524$ 444$ 284$ 124$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$
Paid with equity -$ 20$ 60$ 100$ 131$ 111$ 71$ 31$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$
Interest ExpedituresOld debt 3250$ 2925$ 2705$ 2650$ 2745$ 2942$ 3048$ 2998$ 2810$ 2529$ 2276$ 2049$ 1844$
Additional debt -$ 80$ 240$ 400$ 524$ 444$ 284$ 124$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$
Total debt before principle payments 3250$ 3005$ 2945$ 3050$ 3269$ 3386$ 3332$ 3122$ 2810$ 2529$ 2276$ 2049$ 1844$
Interest % 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9%
Total Interest Expense (NET OF TAX) $ (266) $ (246) $ (241) $ (250) $ (268) $ (277) $ (273) $ (256) $ (230) $ (207) $ (186) $ (168) $ (151)
Net Cash Flow 408$ 493$ 543$ 491$ 622$ 1181$ 1703$ 2125$ 1998$ 2018$ 2081$ 2096$ 2110$
DebtDebt retired on Dec. 31 (Entered as a positive #) 325$ 301$ 294$ 305$ 327$ 339$ 333$ 312$ 281$ 253$ 228$ 205$ 184$
Total debt carried forward 2925$ 2705$ 2650$ 2745$ 2942$ 3048$ 2998$ 2810$ 2529$ 2276$ 2049$ 1844$ 1659$
Cash Flow After Debt Retirment 83$ 193$ 248$ 186$ 296$ 842$ 1370$ 1813$ 1717$ 1765$ 1853$ 1891$ 1925$
$-
$500
$1000
$1500
$2000
$2500
$3000
$3500
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Total Debt Carried Forward by Year
D. Market Data
Satellite RevenuesRegion Avg Revenue 2016-2020 Revenue Growth Rate I Avg Revenue 2021-2025 Revenue Growth Rate II Avg Revenue
Americas $ 1.58 3% $ 1.63 3% $ 1.68
Europe $ 2.20 1% $ 2.22 1% $ 2.24
Africa/ME $ 2.00 1% $ 2.02 1% $ 2.04
Asia/Oceania $ 1.64 3% $ 1.69 3% $ 1.74
Transponders by Region
Region
2016 SataLink
Market Share
Market
Growth Rate
Transponder
Demand in Year N
SataLink Market
Share
Market Share
Capture Rate
Americas 11.8% 5.0% 5390 4.8% 15%
Europe 7.7% 4.5% 3140 9.9% 33%
Middle East / Africa 14.6% 6.0% 2295 16.1% 43%
Asia / Oceania 12.2% 5.0% 3404 4.7% 15%
Total 11.4% 14229 7.7% 24%
New markets from economic growth
E. Works Cited
• Rand.org• International Telecommunication Union• State of the Satellite Industry Report• Frost and Sullivan• Offshore Mag• Statistica• Satellite Markets