Bob Hayward Technology Trends 2004-2008 These materials can be reproduced only with Gartner’s...

Bob Hayward

Technology Trends 2004-2008

These materials can be reproduced only with Gartner’s official approval. Such approvals may be requested via e-mail -- [email protected].

© 2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved.

The Long View – Mid-Life Pause For Breath for IT-based Transformation of Business

19701970 19801980 19901990 20002000 20102010 20202020 20302030

Silicon Age

Nano & Quantum Age

?

"Knowledge" Age

Mainframes

PCs

Physical Connectivity

Logical Connectivity

Embedded ConnectivityRelativeimportance

© 2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. 3

Technology Laws and Innovation Continue…

Moore’s Law – The Fifth Paradigm

10-6

10-4

10-2

10

10+2

10+4

10+6

10+8

10+10

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Exponential Scale

Calculations Per Second Per $1,000.

ElectromechanicalRelay

Vacuum TubeTransistor

Integrated Circuit


The Hype Cycle

Trough ofDisillusionment

Slope ofEnlightenment

Plateau ofProductivity

Maturity

TechnologyTrigger

Peak of Inflated

Expectations

PositiveHype

NegativeHype

Do not join in just because it is "in"

Do not miss out just because it is "out"


Technology Trigger

Peak of Inflated Expectations

Trough of Disillusionment

Slope of Enlightenment

Plateau of Productivity

Maturity

Visibility

Less than two years

Two to five years

Five to 10 years

More than 10 years

Key: Time to Plateau

As of May 2003

Instant messaging, retail

Instant messaging, corporate

Mobile applications, retail

Mobile applications, corporate

Mobile payments

Speech and voice technologiesGrid computing

Data mining

Web services

Artificial intelligence

Intelligent agents/push technology

Sales planning and pricing tools

Partner relationship

management (PRM)

Biometrics

Chip-based cards, corporate

Contact chip cards, Europe

Contact chip cards, U.S.

E-tag

Network identity

services

E-signatures

Document imaging

Document management/archive

Business rules engine

Emerging technologies hype cycle


Benefit

Maturity

New business models

New processes

Improved processes

Moderate: Usable with motivation

Low: demonstrations, prototypes and pilots

Biometrics

Natural Language

Search

Wireless LANs/802.11

WAP/Wireless WebLocation Sensing

VoIP

Bluetooth

P2P

PersonalFuel Cells

Web Services

Nanocomputing

Grid Computing

Digital Wallets

E-Tags

Text-to-Speech

Speech Recognition

PKIPDA Phones

E-Payments

VPN

Radar Screen


Technologies at Different Speeds

Long-fusetechnologies

One to two decades from trigger to plateau Science-fiction-like fascination Inherent complexity, business implications. Reliance on certain infrastructure, skills

“Fast Track” Technologies

Two to four years from trigger to plateau Performance peaks early Uses current infrastructure/standards Easy to use Vendor support

IM, SMS, USB Flash Cards.

Smart Dust Speech RecognitionHandwriting Recognition

Machine TranslationIntelligent Clothes

“Intelligent Agents”

Holographic Storage

E-mail

Internet

Desktop VideoconferencingBiometrics

Tele-ImmersionFiber optics

Nano-Computing

DNA-Computing

“Autonomic Computing”

Quantum-Decryption


Gartner Predicts: Ten Hot Technologies 2004

The Top Ten TechnologiesInstant MessagingReal Time Data WarehouseWiFi SecurityInternal Web ServicesPolicy based managementIP TelephonyUtility ComputingGrid ComputingNetwork Security TechnologiesRFID Tags

Maturing in 18-36 months

Wider Applicability

Lowered RiskIssues Resolved


Instant Messaging in the Enterprise

Values:

Presence Service

Real-time

No rewind

Low overhead

Other Issues:

Lack of audit trail

QoS limitations

Poor integration capability

Lost record of decisions

Text focused, limited media

Security concerns:

Data protection

Privacy

Tamper resistance


“Creative Scheduling”

DW

ETLETLETLETLETLETL

Source Source Source Source

Replication


Replicate Replicate Replicate Replicate

DW

Data Warehouse As An Application

DW

IntegrationBroker


TargetApps.

Avoid The Issue — No Data Warehouse!


BI Tools and Applications

DW

ETL

Options for developing a ‘Real-Time’ Data Warehouse


On the Cusp of the Most Fundamental Change to Business Since The Internet

IT Architecture, concepts and business philosophy have reached a critical tipping point:– Service Oriented Architectures (SOA), Event

Driven Architectures (EDA), Service Oriented Business Applications (SOBA), Service Oriented Development of Applications (SODA), Web Services, Real Time Enterprise (RTE), Business Process Management (BPM) and Modeling and Business Process Fusion gaining major traction and move towards critical mass and mainstream adoption

Maturity in these areas will drive dramatic changes in the way we do business, to a degree not seen since the advent of the Internet


Integration of IT and Business Processes

HighLow

CustomerCustomer

BusinessProcessBusinessProcess

ITIT

CustomerCustomer


ITIT

CustomerCustomer


ITIT

No Business Is an Island: The Increased Dependence on IT for Business Processes


Software As Product– License model– Customization required– Post implementation

hosting– Expensive

Software As Service– Speed to solution– Rental model– Remote delivery– Vertical templates– Medium cost

Business Services– Application agnostic– Net-native software– Pay for use– Business process

focused– Lower cost

Time 2014

Business

Focus

&

Alignment

External applications managed by service provider - customer buying access to an

application

External applications managed by customer –

customer buying application

Services provisioned by service provider (i.e., like voice services provided by a telco) – customer

buying a service with no concern or awareness of enabling applications

Key Trend: Software as a Service


Internal Use of Web Services

Scope ofDeployment

Scope ofControl

“B” = Shared Web services for closely held supply chains and narrow partner groupings“A” = Proprietary web services

for internal integration

cross-industry

extended supply chain

cross- enterprise

cross- application

U.S. & Int’lstandards

bodiesindustryconsortia (public)

channelmaster (private)

CIOoffice

1 dept..

Level 2: Limited External-Trading

Partner Integration — 2005

“B”

Level 3: Unlimited- Potential Prospects, Suppliers, and

Influencers — 2007

Level 1: Internal-Building E-hubs-

2003

“A”

“C”

“C” =Open Sourced Web Services-

UDDI Directories

XML-driveninternet


The Emerging Standards Stack

SOAP

WSDL

In placeKey:

MessagingDescription

StandardNeedBusinessSemantics

ebXML, UBL, RosettaNet

UDDI

BPEL4WS, BPML, WSCI

WS-Security, SAML, XRML

Search & find

Workflow/BPM

Reliability

Building trust

Identifying Liberty, Passport

XMLFormat

Common Internet Protocols(e.g., TCP/IP, HTTP)Transport

WS-Reliable MessagingUser interface WSRP, WSIA Emerging

Entrenched

Established

Eventually


Shared Management Infrastructure

Shared Middleware Infrastructure

Integrated Development Framework and IDE

Portal Integration Transactions

Rules Editor

Orchestration Editor

Assembly Editor

Designers/Modelers

Runtime Engines

Service Wrappers

Generators

Registry Pub/Sub

Integrated SODA Environment

SES

BusinessApplicationServices

ERP

CRM

(for example, Customer record (multiple systems, composite or adapted services)

SOBAISE — Producer Platform

Application Platform Suite (APS)

Software As A Service

SODA

SOA


2005 to 2006: Move Toward BPF and RTE With Composite Applications

MarketEvent

BusinessResponse

SOA & CEPenabled business process fusion

2008: Fusion &consolidation

End-to-end virtual processes and relationships (& CEP)

MarketEvent

BusinessResponseWeb-enabled,

services-wrapped composite apps BPM

2005-6: Flexible but complex

Process 1 2 3 4

Cross-function, multienterprise business processes (& BPM)

MarketEvent

BusinessResponse

Proprietary,monolithic app suites & modules, MOM

1998: Rigidand simple

Process 3Process 1 Process 2 Process 4

Function-focused business processes (& MOM)


Transactions and RDBMS

Data warehouseand analytics

Document store and workflow

Messaging

Processing Styles — Remove the Architecture Silos


Business Process Fusion Enables End-to-End Applications and Processes

Business Process Fusion Applications Cross-functional processes

(internal and external) End-to-End process support

All content types Embedded analytics Services-based

Optimize Value of All Contracts With All Customers

RDBMSData

WarehouseUnstructured Data Mgmt.

Noteworthy Architectural Element

Transaction-Based

Systems

AnalyticsSystems

Collaboration, Content and

WorkflowApplication Style

Determine Yearly Sales Volumes by Customer

Analyze Customer Profitability

Discuss & Record “T’s & C’s” of Customers’ Relationships


Application Requirements Expand Data to Knowledge; Transactions to Process Innovation

Flexible Application PlatformPortal, Integration, App Server, APS, SOA

Leverage Enterprise KnowledgeContent, Data, Analytics, Relationship Mgmt

Transaction ProcessingERP, SCM, Customer Transactions, etc.

Business CollaborationSmart Enterprise Suites, Multienterprise

End-to-End ProcessingBusiness Process Fusion

Low

High

Med

Low

Maturityin 2003

Low

Mission-Critical

2007

2005

Now

2005

2004 Low

BusinessValue

High


Gartner Predicts: Application Development Models, Toolsets Are Changing

50%

100%

1998 200320022000 20011999 2004 2005

Proprietary Vendor 4GL, AS/400 RPG, Mainframe COBOL, etc.

Microsoft .NET

Microsoft DNA

Java Platforms

1M

2M

3M

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

New Projects Programming Models Professional Developers

COBOL

Visual Basic 6 and lower

C/C++

Java

C#

Visual Basic .NET


Static and Unshared Islands

Service A

Edge

Application

Database

Service B Service C

• Inefficient• Overprovisioned• Hard to manage

Current state is inflexible and does not reflect business priorities

(And Many Others)


Policy Based Management: The Real-Time Infrastructure

Black-Box Application Services

Actual User Experience

Policies• Definition of IT Service • Service Agreements • User Class• Business Priorities

INPUTS

Compute Store

Network

Resources

WorkloadsApplications Databases

Middleware

OUTPUTS

IT Services

Policy-based, dynamic, cost-efficient:• Provisioning: Deployment, Growth• Optimization: Resource Efficiency• Availability: Predictable, Service Level


IP Telephony

VoIP on WAN issues

QoS control

Economics vs carrier trends

IP variable latency

Standards and interoperability

IP telephony issues

Features vs PBX

Scalability

Reliability

QoS and sharing networks

Interoperability

Some Missing Features

Attendant console

Least cost routing

Busy override

Trunk callback queuing

Blind transfer

Less then 500 phones; VoIP over WAN

Large IP Telephony (500 or more phones)

Very Large IP telephony (2,000 or more phones)


Utility Computing

• Utility computing

• Buy the services of system, not HW/SW

• Separates the ‘what’ from the ‘how’

• Pricing model tends toward usage

• Examples: ASPs, SSPs, MSPs, hosting services

• Access them various ways

• Web services

• Browsers

• Thick clients

• . . .8.6B$

2003

25B$

2006


GRID ComputingApplication

Owner COwner A Owner B


Utility Computing and GRIDApplication

Utility selling grid resourcesOwner A


Honey Pots, Application Traces and Forensics

Firewalls

IDS

VA

Gateway AV

Security Platform

In the Cloud MSS

IntrusionPreventionAppliances

Anti-spam

ContentScanning

Sub-100 Mb

Gigabit+

2002 20042006

?

?

Policies and Parameters

New Network Security Technology

Unified Management


Current Applications Toll pass systems Pet identification Access cards Retail theft protection Electronic parolee tracking

Photos source Texas Instruments

Successor to Bar Codes Can read even covered Can read while moving Can scan at distance Survives water, heat, painting Price dropping to low levels Remain in product for life

Potential Applications Locate common objects Improved asset control Real-time retail-shelf inventory Move to faster or self-checkout Improve manufacturing and

supply-chain efficiency After-sale services offerings

RFID Tag


“Smart” Objects

2002 2015

• Passive tags temporarily attached to medium-/high-value items.

• Dedicated communication and computation is applied in specialized situations only.

• Computers are relatively large and long-lived.

• Passive tags in every nontrivial object.

• Active intelligence wireless networking and sensing capabilities cost under 50c and are widely distributed.

• The majority of computers are invisible and disposable.

• Bar coded shopping.

• Inventory tagging.

• Specialized industrial tagging.

• Nothing is ever lost.

• Everything is identifiable.

• Many objects know their history and can interact wirelessly.


More information

Improved understanding

Improved decisions

AnalysisGap

Action Gap

Digital footprints(Sensors, RFID)

Self-service Information extraction Unstructured data sources Embedded connectivity Metadata and tags

Improved algorithms Targeted algorithms Integrated analysis

Business rules Business

process fusion

Analysis: Mind the Gap


• Proxy• Caching• VPN• Firewall• WAP• VoIP Gateway

Desktops

Client Devices

• Databases• Consolidation on zSeries

• ERP• SCM• CRM• HR

Business Application

Server

Internet Access

Line of Business

Enterprise Data

Data/Content Server/

Warehouse

Network Edge Servers

Compute Clusters

Infrastructure Server/Blade

• Directory• Security• Load balance• File/print• Web• E-mail• NAS

Financial, R&D, biotech, geophysical, energy, visualize

Gartner Predicts: Linux in the Enterprise: Grass Roots


Office Suite

Word Processor

Spreadsheet

Charting

Personal Database

ERP Suite

Material Requirements Planning

Inventory Control

Financials

Human Resources

Smart Enterprise Suite

Collaboration Support

Content Management

Information Access

Portal Framework

Gartner Predicts: Smart Enterprise Suite — A New Wave of Software Consolidation


Content management

Collaboration

Information organization and retrieval

Business intelligence

Portal framework

Ad hoc process support

Expertise location and management

Community support

Content management

Collaboration

Information organization and retrieval

Business intelligence

Portal framework

Ad hoc process support

Expertise location and management

Community support

With: Sufficient range of functionality Aggressive price points Coherent offer for individual,

team and enterprise processes Integration across suite —

for user and administration Services and support

SES — What to Expect


Connected Society

wireless wearables

Wi-Fi

smart phones

location-based services

ultra-wide band

Smart Networked Objects

embedded computing

RFID

MEMS

smart dust

digital ink

Semantic Web

information extractionXBRL

Semantic Connectivity

affinity profiles

automatic tagging

Three Megatrends


Mobile and Wireless in the Next Decade

PDA Hub

Mesh Networks

By 2007, hubs (central units without peripherals) will emerge that connect many peripherals (e.g., via PAN).

Lots of Functions: Phone, Calendar, Internet, MP3 Player, Camera, Video, House/Car Key, Payment, Authentication, Biometrics, Life Saving, Stun Gunning, Insect Repelling

Shared Hub: I/O, Security, Battery, Storage, Call Center

A mix of technologies, e.g., Zigbee, UWB, Bluetooth, Wi-Fi x.y, 2.5/3/4G, will allow best economical mix: reliability, costs, size, bandwidth, reach

Sensor Mesh Networks/Monitoring Self-Organizing Principles: Plug-and-Play

Tags,Motes,GPS

RFID, Smart Dust (Smart Peas), GPS Sensors Fleet Management (AVLDS), Inventory Management Optimized Traffic Routing


Mobile Network Evolution

Celllocation(worst case,

several Km)

Location precision of 80 M or better

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001 TDMA CDMA

GPRS

EDGE

WCDMA 1x-EV DVcdma2000

1xRTT

GSM

GPRS

WCDMA

EDGE

2GAssume 9.6-19.6 Kbps

2.5GAssume80-100 KbpsEDGE,20-40 Kbps GPRS

3GAssume 200-300 Kbps

Celllocation(worst case,

several Km)

?EV DO

CDMA GSMCDMA GSM


Short-Range Wireless

Personal Personal AreaAreaAdjacentAdjacent

Local Local AreaArea MetropolitanMetropolitan

1M 10M 100M 1KM

Nearfield

Passive RFID

Active RFID

802.16a (Wi-Max)802.16b (mobile)

Proprietary fixed mesh

802.20 (mobile)

UWB

802.15.4(Zigbee)

Bluetooth

Proprietary PAN

Proprietary mesh

802.11 a,be,g,h,i,f

(b = Wi-Fi)


Device Innovation, 2003-2005

Consumer

Corporate

Market Trendsg Fashion is still keyg Annuity handset revenueg Nokia n-gage consoleg Asian manufacturers

g Greater competition, e.g., Dell, Microsoft

g Fragmentation, not convergence

g Microsoft and Symbian battle for corporate "mind share"

g No single-standard corporate device

Technology Trendsg Color, polyphonic soundg Imaging, video, camerasg Game technologyg M-commerce hardware

g Java everywhereg Form-factor proliferationg Slow Bluetooth deployment

g Integrated WLANg Microsoft .NET growsg 1GHz, PDA by 2005g Tablet PC


Pre-Teen

Teen

Young Adult

Middle Aged

Senior Citizen

Mobile PopulationMobile Population

B2E, B2B, B2GB2E, B2B, B2GB2CB2C M2MM2MMeters

Vending

Kiosk

ATM

Vehicular

Mass Transit

Supervisory Control

PreventativeMaintenance

SMB

Head Office

TelecommuterOffice-Centric

Site Rover

Caregiver

Hazardous

Point of Sale

Dock Worker

Education

Warehouse

Site Security

CampusWorkers

Mobile Exec.

Delivery

Sales

Fleet

Field Service

Construction/Maintenance

CriticalWorkers

KnowledgeWorker

Traveling Workers(Road Warriors)

The Diverse Mobile User

© 2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. 41Gartner estimates as of February 2003

Primary Modes of Mobile Workers

Well-defined, structuredcached thin/slim clientAvg. Annual Cost: $1,183

FormsForms

Full fidelitythick clientAvg. AnnualCost: $3,106

PowerPower

KnowledgeKnowledgeUnstructured messagesand forms, thick clientAvg. Annual Cost: $2,296

MessageMessageE-mail-centric,slim offlineAvg. Annual Cost: $889

Thin client, Read, one-button responseAvg. Annual Cost: $416

AlertsAlerts


Computer Human Interaction in the Next Decade

Human Computer

Computer Human

Biometrics, Speech, Handwriting, Eye Position Gait Analysis, Infrared Emotion/Lie Detection SPA: Most CHI will remain keyboard-driven throughout

2015 (0.7 probability)

OLED/OLEP, E-Ink Head-Mounted Displays Speech Synthesis Avatars, Synthetic Characters

Logic Natural Language Search Machine Translation Taxonomies/Browsing Personalization


Supply Chain

IP

IP

Supply Chain

IP

IPServices

Services

Uncontrolled distribution of

information

Political & social instability

Electronic fraud

Geographical & cultural

remoteness

Lack of trust in Internet security

Supplier dependency

The Connected Economy Opens the Door to New Dependencies and Threats

In recent years, we have witnessed terrorist attacks, political unrest, war and most recently SARS which has forced us to urgently address

the business issues of globalization in a way never before required


The World in2003-2006

Universal Security Compliant Accounting Transparency Investors Seek Value Audit Certifies Accuracy Better Governance

The Basics Demand Attention and Spending: Security, Governance, Transparency

Lower spending, less attention to next-generation applications

2004-06: 50% annual increases in spending for “basic” applications to ensure security, governance and transparency

Enterprise Security Creative Accounting Secrecy, Confidentiality Investors Seek Big Ideas Audit Provides Opinions Better Management

The World in1995-2002


Basel II (Financial Services, world-wide) [pending]

Sarbanes-Oxley (All industries,USA)

Turnbull (All industries, UK)

Data Protection Directives (EU)

Database Security Breach Notification Act (California)

Regulation is Tightening on Corporate Governance Management, Privacy and Security

IFRS (accounting, Australia)


This Next Wave of Technology Will Cause Massive Disruption in the IT Workforce and Societies

IT professionals that are now employed to perform administration and maintenance functions must upgrade their skills

Infrastructure becomes more reliable and robust

Application development shifts to a service model

Programmers also must upgrade their skill sets. Assembly overtakes coding.

Secure robust, wireless networks will reach critical mass

Broadband, wireless, Linux, content management, real-time analytics, data mining, security, middleware and certification skills will be highly valued

Global, ubiquitous communications

Arbitrage of costs, global delivery modelsReplacement or reduction of entire industries

Bob Hayward

Technology Trends 2004-2008

These materials can be reproduced only with Gartner’s official approval. Such approvals may be requested via e-mail -- [email protected].

Bob Hayward Technology Trends 2004-2008 These materials can be reproduced only with Gartner’s...

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Transcript of Bob Hayward Technology Trends 2004-2008 These materials can be reproduced only with Gartner’s...