BMO Capital Markets 2015 Global Metals & Mining Conference

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BMO Capital Markets 2016 Global Metals and Mining Conference Diego Hernández Chief Executive Officer 29 February 2016

Transcript of BMO Capital Markets 2015 Global Metals & Mining Conference

Page 1: BMO Capital Markets 2015 Global Metals & Mining Conference

BMO Capital Markets 2016Global Metals and Mining Conference

Diego Hernández – Chief Executive Officer

29 February 2016

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This presentation has been prepared by Antofagasta plc. By reviewing and/or attending this presentation you agree to the following conditions.

This presentation contains forward-looking statements. All statements other than historical facts are forward-looking statements. Examples offorward-looking statements include those regarding the Group's strategy, plans, objectives or future operating or financial performance; reserve andresource estimates; commodity demand and trends in commodity prices; growth opportunities; and any assumptions underlying or relating to anyof the foregoing. Words such as “intend”, “aim”, “project”, “anticipate”, “estimate”, “plan”, “believe”, “expect”, “may”, “should”, “will”, “continue”and similar expressions identify forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties,assumptions and other factors that are beyond the Group’s control. Given these risks, uncertainties and assumptions, actual results could differmaterially from any future results expressed or implied by these forward-looking statements, which speak only as of the date of this presentation.Important factors that could cause actual results to differ from those in the forward-looking statements include: global economic conditions;demand, supply and prices for copper; long-term commodity price assumptions, as they materially affect the timing and feasibility of future projectsand developments; trends in the copper mining industry and conditions of the international copper markets; the effect of currency exchange rateson commodity prices and operating costs; the availability and costs associated with mining inputs and labour; operating or technical difficulties inconnection with mining or development activities; employee relations; litigation; and actions and activities of governmental authorities, includingchanges in laws, regulations or taxation. Except as required by applicable law, rule or regulation, the Group does not undertake any obligation topublicly update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.

Certain statistical and other information about Antofagasta plc included in this presentation is sourced from publicly available third party sources.Such information presents the views of those third parties and may not necessarily correspond to the views held by Antofagasta plc.

This presentation is for information purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy shares in Antofagastaplc or any other securities in any jurisdiction. Further it does not constitute a recommendation by Antofagasta plc or any other person to buy or sellshares in Antofagasta plc or any other securities.

Past performance cannot be relied on as a guide to future performance.

Cautionary statement

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Overview

Market outlook

Operational overview

Growth opportunities

Investment case

Agenda

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Zaldívar

Overview

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Los Pelambreso 60% ownership

o 2015 Copper production: 363,200 t

o Life of mine(1): 22 years

o Reserves (2): 1.4 billion t @ 0.59% Cu, 0.019% Mo & 0.04g/t Au

Centinelao 70% ownership

o 2015 Copper production: 221,000 t

o Life of mine(1): 45 years

o Reserves (2): 2.1 billion t @ 0.45% Cu

Zaldívar (acquired Dec 2015)

o 50% ownership, operator

o 2015 Copper production: 109,000 t 100% basis

o Life of mine(1): 14 years

o Reserves (2): 461 million t @ 0.55% Cu

Antucoya

o 70% ownership

o 2015 Copper production: 12,200 t

o Life of mine(1): 18 years

o Reserves (2):682 million t @ 0.34% Cu

Leading mining company based in

Chile, one of the world’s most

developed and stable mining

locations

One of top 10 largest copper

producers – 630kt in 2015

High quality existing assets with

significant potential production

growth – C1 $1.50/lb in 2015

Transport division provides cargo

transport system in Chile’s

Antofagasta Region, with a rail

network of over 900 km

Overview

Antofagasta at a glance

(1) As of 31 Dec 2015(2) As of 31 Dec 2014, more details available on

the Group’s ore reserves in the 2014 Annual Report and in the 2014 Barrick Gold Annual Report 5

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Investment case – Responding to uncertain times

• Strong and growing production

• Large resource base

• Low costs and long-life assets

• Four mines in two ‘world-class’ mining districts in Chile

Robust platform

Capital discipline

Cost controlHigh quality

assets

• Focus on operating efficiencies through technical innovation and exploiting synergies

• Cost and Competitiveness Programme

• Strong and flexible balance sheet

• Manageable debt levels

• Continuing to optimise mines

• Disciplined approach to acquisitions and disposals

• Lowering cost base for future upturn

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Position

Optimise

Discipline

The Group’s position in a challenging environment• Strong balance sheet• Competitive operating cost position• Sustainability & community engagement• Preserving growth projects

Optimise our portfolio• Sale of ADASA• Bring Antucoya to full production• Purchase of TMM and stake in Zaldívar• Closure of Michilla

Maintain our discipline and flexibility• Cost control without increasing risk• Reduce capital expenditure programme

2015 Year’s Highlights

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2015 Net Cash Cost

1.50/lb

2016 Guidance

1.35/lb

2015 Production

213,900 oz

2016 Guidance

245,000- 275,000 oz

2015 Production

10,100 t

2016 Guidance

8,000 – 9,000t

2015 performance and guidance

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2015 Production

630,300 t

2016 Guidance

710,000 - 740,000 t

MoAu $/lbCu

Preparing for another challenging year ahead

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• Unacceptably, a fatality occurred at Michilla during the year

• Committed to zero fatalities

• 38% improvement in injury rate

• New safety and occupational health model being extended to contractors

Focus on: o Early identification of key fatality

and serious injury risks

o Reporting and investigating high-potential near misses

o On-the-ground senior safety leadership

Safety Performance

Achieved a 38% reduction in LTIFR

0

1 2

5

1

3.2

2.6

2.11.9 1.98

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Fatalities LTIFR

Safety first culture

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Los Pelambres

Market Outlook

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0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

1992 1997 2002 2007 2012 2017 2022 2027

Mt

Possible ProjectsProbable ProjectsHighly Probable ProjectsBase Case Production CapabilityPrimary Demand

Source: Wood Mackenzie Q4 2015 Copper Outlook

Global Supply and Demand

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Mt

1970 - 19793.4% growth p.a.

1960 - 19694.7% growth p.a.

1980 - 19891.8% growth p.a.

1990 - 19993% growth p.a.

2000 - 20091.5% growth p.a.

2010 - 20192.5% growth p.a.

2020 - 2035

1.5% growth p.a.

Source: Wood Mackenzie Q4 2015 Copper Outlook

Global Copper Demand

• LME copper price averaged $2.50/lb 2015 (2014: $3.11/lb)

• Price remains under pressure as mine supply grows modestly in light of slower demand growth

• Small surpluses expected in 2016 and 2017

• Tight market for 2018 onwards

• Cost curve pushed down and flat as producers cut costs

• external factors (FX and Oil) provide additional relief

• Benchmark TC/RCs set lower $97.35/t-9.735¢/lb vs $107/t-10.7¢/lb in 2015

• Optimistic in medium and long term, supported by copper fundamentals

Copper market outlook

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• New Normal in China

• Consumption led economy

• Slower sustained growth

• Investment in power

• Spending to support geopolitical ambitions

• One Belt, One Road

• Resources to prevent a hard landing

• Structural change:

Lower annual GDP growth compared to previous years:

2010-2015: 7.3% average

2016-2020: 6.0 - 6.5%

2021-2025: 5.0 - 6.0%

• Power grid investment is source of growth in Chinese consumption

8.9%

7.3%6.9% 6.6%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

Average2009-2013

2014 2015f 2016f

PIB China

Consumption Investment

Net trade Real GDP % change

China Economic Indicators

Source: JP Morgan Research and World Bank

China: The new normal

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Centinela

Operational Overview

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• Lower throughput due to harder ore zone of the mine• Highest molybdenum production since 2012• Protests in Q1 2015

Los Pelambres

• Lower grade• Throughput expansions progressing

Centinela

• Operation closed in Q4 2015

Michilla

• Lower production at Los Pelambres and Centinela• Completed construction of Antucoya, with

commissioning in Q2 2016

Group

FY 2014 FY 2015

391,300t Cu 363,200t Cu

C1 $1.18/lb C1 $1.23/lb

266,600t Cu 221,100t Cu

C1 $1.63/lb C1 $1.85/lb

47,000t Cu 29,400t Cu

C1 $2.38/lb C1 $2.14/lb

704,800t Cu 630,300t Cu(1)

C1 $1.43/lb C1 $1.50/lb

1. Includes 4.4kt from Zaldívar and 12.2kt from Antucoya

Operations overview

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Delivering growth on-budget

• First cathode in Q3 2015

• Commissioning issues in the secondary and tertiary crushing circuits caused delay in ramp-up

• Approximately 7m tonnes of crushed material on the leach pads as at 31 December 2015

ANTUCOYA

Start of operation: 2015Mine life : 18 yearsReserves (P+P) (1): 682mt @ 0.34% Cu

2015 2016

Copper production (t) 12,200 65 - 70,000

Net cash costs ($/lb) n/a 1.65

Antucoya – ramp-up

1. As at 31 Dec 2014

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• 50% from Barrick for $1.0 billion closed in Q4 2015

• Antofagasta operator of the mine

• Rare opportunity to acquire good-quality copper asset in familiar jurisdiction

• Production growth as grade increases

• Procurement and administrative synergies available

• Upside potential through exploration of mine’s resources

ZALDÍVAR

Start of operation: 1998Mine life : 14 yearsReserves (P+P) (1): 461mt @ 0.55% Cu

2015(2) 2016 (2)

Copper production (t) 109,000 100-110,000

Net cash costs ($/lb) 1.74 1.80

Zaldívar acquisition

1. As at 31 Dec 20142. 100% basis

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17Target 2015 $160M ( approx.7% of operating costs)

Cost and Competitiveness Programme

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Services Productivity

Operational & Maintenance Management

Corporate & Organisational Effectiveness

Energy Efficiency

Improving productivity and

quality of contracts while reducing costs

Improving performance of

critical processes and standardising

maintenance management

Reducing corporate costs

and restructuring corporate functions

Improving energy pricing and

consumption efficiency

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Los Pelambres

Growth Opportunities

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Strategy

Existing core business

• Embed the Safety Model to achieve zero fatalities

• Continue Cost and Competitiveness Programme

• Integrate Zaldívar, focusing on synergies

• Strengthen sustainable development

• Proactive and inclusive approach

Organic & sustainable growth of the core business

• Advance: Encuentro Oxides and the molybdenum plant at Centinela

• Advance the Group’s main growth projects: Los Pelambres Incremental Expansion and Centinela Second Concentrator

Growth beyond the core business

• Develop the long-term growth pipeline

• Monitor potential value accretive acquisitions or joint ventures

1

2

3

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2016 2017 2018 2019 2020+

Centinela 105ktpd(1)

Cu: 10-12ktpa(2)

Capex:$110m

Antucoya(1)

Cu: 85ktpa(2)

Capex:$1,900m

EncuentroOxides(1)

Cu: 50ktpa(2)

Capex:$636m

Los Pelambres Incremental Expansion(3)

Cu: 95ktpa(2)

Capex:$1,600m(4)

Centinela Second Concentrator(3)

Cu: 140ktpa(2)

Capex:$2,700m

Centinela Moly Plant(1)

Mo: 2,400tpa(2)

Capex:$125m

(1) Feasibility study figures(2) Estimated figures for the first five years(3) Pre-feasibility study figures(4) Including desalination plant

Ramp-up

Construction

Feasibility study

Growth opportunities

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Centinela Mining District – under construction

Encuentro Oxides

• Next stage in development of Centinela District

• Revised construction time line to conserve cash

• Commence production in 2017

• 8-year mine life

• Provides feed for existing SX-EW plant

• Full production 50,000 tonnes of copper per annum

• Focusing on critical items in project development

Centinela Debottlenecking

• Debottlenecking concentrates plant to increase throughput to 105 ktpd

• Front-end completed in 2015

• Installation of tailing thickeners in 2016

Molybdenum Plant

• Construction underway

• Completion in 2017

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Centinela Second Concentrator

• Planned 2nd concentrator 7 km away from current facilities

o Throughput: 90 ktpd

o Annual production: 140 kt Cu, 150 koz gold, 6.5 kt Mo

• Two-phase growth: Phase 1 - 90 ktpd, Phase 2 - +50 ktpd

• EIA submitted to authorities in Q2 2015

• Slowed feasibility study, focusing on critical path items

• Earliest investment decision 2017

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10km

Centinela Mining District – future development

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Phased Approach to Project Development

Phase 1

• Maximising throughput under existing permits

• Throughput expansion to 190 ktpd + desalination plant

• New grinding and flotation circuit to counter the increasing hardness of the ore

• Estimated capex of $1.1 billion

• EIA submission in 2016

• Earliest investment decision in late 2017

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Phase 2

• Throughput expansion to 205 ktpd

• Mine life extension beyond 2037 with increases in capacity of tailings facility and waste rock dumps

• Repower conveyors from primary crusher

• Estimated capex of $500 million

• EIA submission in 2018

Los Pelambres Incremental Expansion

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Twin Metals Minnesota Project

• 2.4 billion tonne resource containing copper, nickel and PGMs

• Optimising pre-feasibility study

• Consolidated ownership of project

• Advancing permitting process

Exploration and evaluation

• Reduced exploration as part of cost savings programme

• Exploration and evaluation in Chile and internationally

Further growth opportunities beyond 2020

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Antucoya

Investment Case

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Investment case – Responding to uncertain times

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• Strong and growing production

• Large resource base

• Low costs and long-life assets

• Four mines in two ‘world-class’ mining districts in Chile

Robust platform

Capital discipline

Cost controlHigh quality

assets

• Focus on operating efficiencies through technical innovation and exploiting synergies

• Cost and Competitiveness Programme

• Strong and flexible balance sheet

• Manageable debt levels

• Continuing to optimise mines

• Disciplined approach to acquisitions and disposals

• Lowering cost base for future upturn

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