BMO Capital Markets 2015 Global Metals & Mining Conference
Transcript of BMO Capital Markets 2015 Global Metals & Mining Conference
BMO Capital Markets 2016Global Metals and Mining Conference
Diego Hernández – Chief Executive Officer
29 February 2016
This presentation has been prepared by Antofagasta plc. By reviewing and/or attending this presentation you agree to the following conditions.
This presentation contains forward-looking statements. All statements other than historical facts are forward-looking statements. Examples offorward-looking statements include those regarding the Group's strategy, plans, objectives or future operating or financial performance; reserve andresource estimates; commodity demand and trends in commodity prices; growth opportunities; and any assumptions underlying or relating to anyof the foregoing. Words such as “intend”, “aim”, “project”, “anticipate”, “estimate”, “plan”, “believe”, “expect”, “may”, “should”, “will”, “continue”and similar expressions identify forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties,assumptions and other factors that are beyond the Group’s control. Given these risks, uncertainties and assumptions, actual results could differmaterially from any future results expressed or implied by these forward-looking statements, which speak only as of the date of this presentation.Important factors that could cause actual results to differ from those in the forward-looking statements include: global economic conditions;demand, supply and prices for copper; long-term commodity price assumptions, as they materially affect the timing and feasibility of future projectsand developments; trends in the copper mining industry and conditions of the international copper markets; the effect of currency exchange rateson commodity prices and operating costs; the availability and costs associated with mining inputs and labour; operating or technical difficulties inconnection with mining or development activities; employee relations; litigation; and actions and activities of governmental authorities, includingchanges in laws, regulations or taxation. Except as required by applicable law, rule or regulation, the Group does not undertake any obligation topublicly update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.
Certain statistical and other information about Antofagasta plc included in this presentation is sourced from publicly available third party sources.Such information presents the views of those third parties and may not necessarily correspond to the views held by Antofagasta plc.
This presentation is for information purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy shares in Antofagastaplc or any other securities in any jurisdiction. Further it does not constitute a recommendation by Antofagasta plc or any other person to buy or sellshares in Antofagasta plc or any other securities.
Past performance cannot be relied on as a guide to future performance.
Cautionary statement
3 3
Overview
Market outlook
Operational overview
Growth opportunities
Investment case
Agenda
Zaldívar
Overview
Los Pelambreso 60% ownership
o 2015 Copper production: 363,200 t
o Life of mine(1): 22 years
o Reserves (2): 1.4 billion t @ 0.59% Cu, 0.019% Mo & 0.04g/t Au
Centinelao 70% ownership
o 2015 Copper production: 221,000 t
o Life of mine(1): 45 years
o Reserves (2): 2.1 billion t @ 0.45% Cu
Zaldívar (acquired Dec 2015)
o 50% ownership, operator
o 2015 Copper production: 109,000 t 100% basis
o Life of mine(1): 14 years
o Reserves (2): 461 million t @ 0.55% Cu
Antucoya
o 70% ownership
o 2015 Copper production: 12,200 t
o Life of mine(1): 18 years
o Reserves (2):682 million t @ 0.34% Cu
Leading mining company based in
Chile, one of the world’s most
developed and stable mining
locations
One of top 10 largest copper
producers – 630kt in 2015
High quality existing assets with
significant potential production
growth – C1 $1.50/lb in 2015
Transport division provides cargo
transport system in Chile’s
Antofagasta Region, with a rail
network of over 900 km
Overview
Antofagasta at a glance
(1) As of 31 Dec 2015(2) As of 31 Dec 2014, more details available on
the Group’s ore reserves in the 2014 Annual Report and in the 2014 Barrick Gold Annual Report 5
Investment case – Responding to uncertain times
• Strong and growing production
• Large resource base
• Low costs and long-life assets
• Four mines in two ‘world-class’ mining districts in Chile
Robust platform
Capital discipline
Cost controlHigh quality
assets
• Focus on operating efficiencies through technical innovation and exploiting synergies
• Cost and Competitiveness Programme
• Strong and flexible balance sheet
• Manageable debt levels
• Continuing to optimise mines
• Disciplined approach to acquisitions and disposals
• Lowering cost base for future upturn
6
7 7
Position
Optimise
Discipline
The Group’s position in a challenging environment• Strong balance sheet• Competitive operating cost position• Sustainability & community engagement• Preserving growth projects
Optimise our portfolio• Sale of ADASA• Bring Antucoya to full production• Purchase of TMM and stake in Zaldívar• Closure of Michilla
Maintain our discipline and flexibility• Cost control without increasing risk• Reduce capital expenditure programme
2015 Year’s Highlights
2015 Net Cash Cost
1.50/lb
2016 Guidance
1.35/lb
2015 Production
213,900 oz
2016 Guidance
245,000- 275,000 oz
2015 Production
10,100 t
2016 Guidance
8,000 – 9,000t
2015 performance and guidance
8
2015 Production
630,300 t
2016 Guidance
710,000 - 740,000 t
MoAu $/lbCu
Preparing for another challenging year ahead
9 9
• Unacceptably, a fatality occurred at Michilla during the year
• Committed to zero fatalities
• 38% improvement in injury rate
• New safety and occupational health model being extended to contractors
Focus on: o Early identification of key fatality
and serious injury risks
o Reporting and investigating high-potential near misses
o On-the-ground senior safety leadership
Safety Performance
Achieved a 38% reduction in LTIFR
0
1 2
5
1
3.2
2.6
2.11.9 1.98
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Fatalities LTIFR
Safety first culture
Los Pelambres
Market Outlook
11
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1992 1997 2002 2007 2012 2017 2022 2027
Mt
Possible ProjectsProbable ProjectsHighly Probable ProjectsBase Case Production CapabilityPrimary Demand
Source: Wood Mackenzie Q4 2015 Copper Outlook
Global Supply and Demand
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Mt
1970 - 19793.4% growth p.a.
1960 - 19694.7% growth p.a.
1980 - 19891.8% growth p.a.
1990 - 19993% growth p.a.
2000 - 20091.5% growth p.a.
2010 - 20192.5% growth p.a.
2020 - 2035
1.5% growth p.a.
Source: Wood Mackenzie Q4 2015 Copper Outlook
Global Copper Demand
• LME copper price averaged $2.50/lb 2015 (2014: $3.11/lb)
• Price remains under pressure as mine supply grows modestly in light of slower demand growth
• Small surpluses expected in 2016 and 2017
• Tight market for 2018 onwards
• Cost curve pushed down and flat as producers cut costs
• external factors (FX and Oil) provide additional relief
• Benchmark TC/RCs set lower $97.35/t-9.735¢/lb vs $107/t-10.7¢/lb in 2015
• Optimistic in medium and long term, supported by copper fundamentals
Copper market outlook
12
• New Normal in China
• Consumption led economy
• Slower sustained growth
• Investment in power
• Spending to support geopolitical ambitions
• One Belt, One Road
• Resources to prevent a hard landing
• Structural change:
Lower annual GDP growth compared to previous years:
2010-2015: 7.3% average
2016-2020: 6.0 - 6.5%
2021-2025: 5.0 - 6.0%
• Power grid investment is source of growth in Chinese consumption
8.9%
7.3%6.9% 6.6%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
Average2009-2013
2014 2015f 2016f
PIB China
Consumption Investment
Net trade Real GDP % change
China Economic Indicators
Source: JP Morgan Research and World Bank
China: The new normal
Centinela
Operational Overview
14 14
• Lower throughput due to harder ore zone of the mine• Highest molybdenum production since 2012• Protests in Q1 2015
Los Pelambres
• Lower grade• Throughput expansions progressing
Centinela
• Operation closed in Q4 2015
Michilla
• Lower production at Los Pelambres and Centinela• Completed construction of Antucoya, with
commissioning in Q2 2016
Group
FY 2014 FY 2015
391,300t Cu 363,200t Cu
C1 $1.18/lb C1 $1.23/lb
266,600t Cu 221,100t Cu
C1 $1.63/lb C1 $1.85/lb
47,000t Cu 29,400t Cu
C1 $2.38/lb C1 $2.14/lb
704,800t Cu 630,300t Cu(1)
C1 $1.43/lb C1 $1.50/lb
1. Includes 4.4kt from Zaldívar and 12.2kt from Antucoya
Operations overview
15
Delivering growth on-budget
• First cathode in Q3 2015
• Commissioning issues in the secondary and tertiary crushing circuits caused delay in ramp-up
• Approximately 7m tonnes of crushed material on the leach pads as at 31 December 2015
ANTUCOYA
Start of operation: 2015Mine life : 18 yearsReserves (P+P) (1): 682mt @ 0.34% Cu
2015 2016
Copper production (t) 12,200 65 - 70,000
Net cash costs ($/lb) n/a 1.65
Antucoya – ramp-up
1. As at 31 Dec 2014
1616
• 50% from Barrick for $1.0 billion closed in Q4 2015
• Antofagasta operator of the mine
• Rare opportunity to acquire good-quality copper asset in familiar jurisdiction
• Production growth as grade increases
• Procurement and administrative synergies available
• Upside potential through exploration of mine’s resources
ZALDÍVAR
Start of operation: 1998Mine life : 14 yearsReserves (P+P) (1): 461mt @ 0.55% Cu
2015(2) 2016 (2)
Copper production (t) 109,000 100-110,000
Net cash costs ($/lb) 1.74 1.80
Zaldívar acquisition
1. As at 31 Dec 20142. 100% basis
17Target 2015 $160M ( approx.7% of operating costs)
Cost and Competitiveness Programme
17
Services Productivity
Operational & Maintenance Management
Corporate & Organisational Effectiveness
Energy Efficiency
Improving productivity and
quality of contracts while reducing costs
Improving performance of
critical processes and standardising
maintenance management
Reducing corporate costs
and restructuring corporate functions
Improving energy pricing and
consumption efficiency
Los Pelambres
Growth Opportunities
19 19
Strategy
Existing core business
• Embed the Safety Model to achieve zero fatalities
• Continue Cost and Competitiveness Programme
• Integrate Zaldívar, focusing on synergies
• Strengthen sustainable development
• Proactive and inclusive approach
Organic & sustainable growth of the core business
• Advance: Encuentro Oxides and the molybdenum plant at Centinela
• Advance the Group’s main growth projects: Los Pelambres Incremental Expansion and Centinela Second Concentrator
Growth beyond the core business
• Develop the long-term growth pipeline
• Monitor potential value accretive acquisitions or joint ventures
1
2
3
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020+
Centinela 105ktpd(1)
Cu: 10-12ktpa(2)
Capex:$110m
Antucoya(1)
Cu: 85ktpa(2)
Capex:$1,900m
EncuentroOxides(1)
Cu: 50ktpa(2)
Capex:$636m
Los Pelambres Incremental Expansion(3)
Cu: 95ktpa(2)
Capex:$1,600m(4)
Centinela Second Concentrator(3)
Cu: 140ktpa(2)
Capex:$2,700m
Centinela Moly Plant(1)
Mo: 2,400tpa(2)
Capex:$125m
(1) Feasibility study figures(2) Estimated figures for the first five years(3) Pre-feasibility study figures(4) Including desalination plant
Ramp-up
Construction
Feasibility study
Growth opportunities
20
21 21
Centinela Mining District – under construction
Encuentro Oxides
• Next stage in development of Centinela District
• Revised construction time line to conserve cash
• Commence production in 2017
• 8-year mine life
• Provides feed for existing SX-EW plant
• Full production 50,000 tonnes of copper per annum
• Focusing on critical items in project development
Centinela Debottlenecking
• Debottlenecking concentrates plant to increase throughput to 105 ktpd
• Front-end completed in 2015
• Installation of tailing thickeners in 2016
Molybdenum Plant
• Construction underway
• Completion in 2017
22
Centinela Second Concentrator
• Planned 2nd concentrator 7 km away from current facilities
o Throughput: 90 ktpd
o Annual production: 140 kt Cu, 150 koz gold, 6.5 kt Mo
• Two-phase growth: Phase 1 - 90 ktpd, Phase 2 - +50 ktpd
• EIA submitted to authorities in Q2 2015
• Slowed feasibility study, focusing on critical path items
• Earliest investment decision 2017
22
10km
Centinela Mining District – future development
Phased Approach to Project Development
Phase 1
• Maximising throughput under existing permits
• Throughput expansion to 190 ktpd + desalination plant
• New grinding and flotation circuit to counter the increasing hardness of the ore
• Estimated capex of $1.1 billion
• EIA submission in 2016
• Earliest investment decision in late 2017
23
Phase 2
• Throughput expansion to 205 ktpd
• Mine life extension beyond 2037 with increases in capacity of tailings facility and waste rock dumps
• Repower conveyors from primary crusher
• Estimated capex of $500 million
• EIA submission in 2018
Los Pelambres Incremental Expansion
24
Twin Metals Minnesota Project
• 2.4 billion tonne resource containing copper, nickel and PGMs
• Optimising pre-feasibility study
• Consolidated ownership of project
• Advancing permitting process
Exploration and evaluation
• Reduced exploration as part of cost savings programme
• Exploration and evaluation in Chile and internationally
Further growth opportunities beyond 2020
Antucoya
Investment Case
Investment case – Responding to uncertain times
26
• Strong and growing production
• Large resource base
• Low costs and long-life assets
• Four mines in two ‘world-class’ mining districts in Chile
Robust platform
Capital discipline
Cost controlHigh quality
assets
• Focus on operating efficiencies through technical innovation and exploiting synergies
• Cost and Competitiveness Programme
• Strong and flexible balance sheet
• Manageable debt levels
• Continuing to optimise mines
• Disciplined approach to acquisitions and disposals
• Lowering cost base for future upturn