BMI STRATEGY CONSULTING UNIT cc ... · ©bmi-brscu the strategic forum outline of sensemaking...

© BMI-BRSCU © BMI-BRSCU

Sense making Update:

Year To Date 2014 (June 2014) Dr. Llewellyn B. Lewis

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Reg. No. 2002/105109/23

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BUILDING RESEARCH

STRATEGY CONSULTING

UNIT cc

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BUILDING RESEARCH

STRATEGY CONSULTING

UNIT cc

Reg. No. 2002/105109/23

•BMI



BUILDING RESEARCH

STRATEGY CONSULTING

UNIT cc

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1

http://www.strategicforum.co.za/



OUTLINE OF SENSEMAKING UPDATE 1. BUILDING PLANS PASSED AND BUILDINGS COMPLETED 1993-2013

• Trend, Current Reality 2012 and Forecast 2013 for Res, Non Res and Total BPP in m2 and Value • Trend, Current Reality 2012 and Forecast 2013 for Res, Non Res and Total BC in m2 and Value • Summary YTD % Actual and Forecast BPP, BC, Cement Sales and Local Building Lumber Sales

2. NET BUILDING IN THE PIPELINE (NBIP) • NBIP Residential, Non Residential and Total Building • YTD Forecast BC 2013 vs Actual 2012 by Segment in Number, m2 and Value • BPP and BC by Province

3. INVESTMENT IN BUILDING AND CONSTRUCTION: 2012 4. CURRENT REALITY AND OUTLOOK FOR BUILDING AND CONSTRUCTION ACTIVITY BY SECTOR AND SEGMENT: 2013 - 2020

(CURRENT 2012 VALUE) 5. CURRENT REALITY OF INVESTMENT IN BUILDING & CONSTRUCTION: 2012 6. % CHANGE IN INVESTMENT IN BUILDING & CONSTRUCTION: 2011-2020 (R MILLION) (CONSTANT 2012 VALUES) 7. INVESTMENT IN BUILDING & CONSTRUCTION: 2013-2020 (R MILLION) (CONSTANT 2012 VALUES)

INVESTMENT IN BUILDING & CONSTRUCTION:

2013-2020 (R MILLION) (CONSTANT 2012 VALUES)

2


© BMI-BRSCU

TOTAL BUILDING PLANS PASSED (M2) ENDED 2013 AT + 9,73% COMPARED TO 2012.

THE INDUSTRY DASHBOARD: BUILDING PLANS PASSED: YTD ACTUAL AND FORECAST 2014 VS 2013

3

RES BUILDING PLANS PASSED (BPP): YTD* 2014 VS 2013

m2 % R*1000 %

Dwelling-house < 80 square metres 130 121 25.57% 595 869 37.57%

Dwelling-house => 80 square metres 80 220 3.22% 1 487 491 10.52%

Flats and townhouses 101 537 11.55% 1 405 288 26.59%

Other buildings -35 584 -23.84% -580 052 -46.74%

Additions and alterations -47 143 -2.61% 289 610 3.03%

TOTAL 229 151 3.93% 3 198 206 10.06%

NON RES BUILDING PLANS PASSED (BPP): YTD* 2014 VS 2013

m2 % R*1000 %

Office and banking 234 398 47.52% 2 165 144 60.19%

Shopping -311 954 -45.57% -1 973 529 -45.03%

Industrial and warehouse 21 526 2.18% 546 136 12.59%

Other buildings 10 519 4.91% 153 150 13.07%

Additions and alterations -52 025 -8.27% -313 531 -7.52%

TOTAL -97 536 -3.24% 577 370 3.27%

GRAND TOTAL 131 615 1.49% 3 775 576 7.63%

* July 2014

RES BUILDING PLANS PASSED (BPP): YTD FORECAST 2014 VS 2013

m2 R*1000


Dwelling-house => 80 square metres 179 697 4.25% 2 002 723 8.22%

Flats and townhouses 112 382 7.34% 1 311 739 13.66%

Other buildings 21 100 12.07% -87 148 -6.40%


TOTAL RES 544 404 5.46% 4 662 461 8.47%

NON RES BUILDING PLANS PASSED (BPP): YTD FORECAST 2014 VS 2013

m2 R*1000

Office and banking 182 518 24.92% 1 793 627 33.54%

Shopping -207 626 -16.63% -1 473 653 -18.39%

Industrial and warehouse 163 894 9.25% 1 224 887 15.51%

Other buildings 76 801 18.17% 595 264 25.14%

Additions and alterations 87 748 7.79% 651 902 8.57%

TOTAL NON RES 303 335 5.72% 2 792 027 8.94%

TOTAL RES & NON RES 847 739 5.55% 7 454 487 8.64%

* July 2014

PROGNOSIS: YTD ACTUAL VS FORECAST: BUILDING PLANS PASSED

2013 vs 2012

YTD Actual YTD FC

4.84% 3.93% 5.46%

12.47% 10.06% 8.47%

21.04% -3.24% 5.72%

28.22% 3.27% 8.94%

9.95% 1.49% 5.55%

17.71% 7.63% 8.64%

Building Plans Passed Weighted Average (m2) 9.95% 1.63% 5.55%

Building Plans Passed Weighted Average (R) 6.68% 7.68% 8.64%

Non Residential BPP (R)

Total BPP (m2)

Total BPP (R)

BUILDING PLANS PASSED (BPP) (m2 and value)

Residential BPP (m2)

Non Residential BPP (m2)

2014 vs 2013Jul-14

Residential BPP (R)

© BMI-BRSCU © BMI-BRSCU 4

27.68%

4.25%

7.34%

12.07%

-0.45%

5.46%

32.58%

8.22%

13.66%

-6.40%

2.84%

8.47%

-10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%

Dwelling-house < 80 square metres

Dwelling-house => 80 square metres

Flats and townhouses

Other buildings

Additions and alterations

TOTAL RES

RES BUILDING PLANS PASSED (BPP) BY SEGMENT: TOTAL RSA: CUM FC 2014 VS 2013 (JULY)(Source: StatsSA, BMI-BRSCU: BPP South Africa: Chart BPP66)

m2 R*1000



24.92%

-16.63%

9.25%

18.17%

7.79%

5.72%

5.55%

33.54%

-18.39%

15.51%

25.14%

8.57%

8.94%

8.64%

-30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40%

Office and banking

Shopping

Industrial and warehouse

Other buildings

Additions and alterations

TOTAL

GRAND TOTAL

NON RES AND TOTAL BPP BY SEGMENT: TOTAL RSA: YTD FC 2014 VS 2013 (JULY)

(Source: StatsSA, BMI-BRSCU Workings)

m2 R*1000


© BMI-BRSCU 6

BUILDING PLANS PASSED BY SEGMENT: YTD ACTUAL 2014 VS 2013 www.strategicforum.co.za

27.1

4%

25.5

7% 37.5

7%

1.4

5%

3.2

2%

10.5

2%

12.6

8%

11.5

5% 2

6.5

9%

-23.8

4%

-46.7

4%

13.0

7%

47.5

2% 60.1

9%

-45.5

7%

-45.0

3%

2.1

8% 12.5

9%

4.9

1%

13.0

7%

6.6

0%

-2.6

1%

3.0

3%

-8.2

7%

-7.5

2%

-0.1

7%

7.6

3%

-120%

-100%

-80%

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

No

m2

R'0

00

No

m2

R'0

00

No

m2

R'0

00

m2

R'0

00

R'0

00

m2

R'0

00

m2

R'0

00

m2

R'0

00

m2

R'0

00

R'0

00

m2

R'0

00

m2

R'0

00

R'0

00

R'0

00

< 80m2 > 80m2 Flats andTownhouses

Other Total Office andBanking

Shopping Ind&WH Other Total A&ADwellings

A&A Other A&ATot

Tot

% Difference in Cumulative Y/Y BPP: Cum YTD Actual 2014 vs 2013 by Segment (July)(Source: StatsSA, BMI-BRSCU Workings) (ChartBPP71(2)



BUILDING PLANS PASSED BY SEGMENT: YTD FORECAST 2014 VS 2013 www.strategicforum.co.za

28.4

4%

27.6

8%

32.5

8%

4.0

5%

4.2

5%

8.2

2%

7.3

9%

7.3

4% 1

3.6

6%

12.0

7%

-6.4

0%

11.0

4%

24.9

2% 3

3.5

4%

-16.6

3%

-18.3

9%

9.2

5% 1

5.5

1%

18.1

7% 25.1

4%

9.4

5%

-0.4

5%

2.8

4% 7.7

9%

8.5

7%

4.5

6% 8.8

4%

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

No

m2

R'0

00

No

m2

R'0

00

No

m2

R'0

00

m2

R'0

00

R'0

00

m2

R'0

00

m2

R'0

00

m2

R'0

00

m2

R'0

00

R'0

00

m2

R'0

00

m2

R'0

00

R'0

00

R'0

00

< 80m2 > 80m2 Flats andTownhouses

Other Total Office andBanking


A&A Other A&ATot

Tot

% Difference in Cumulative Y/Y BPP: Cum YTD FC 2014 vs 2013 by Segment (July)(Source: StatsSA, BMI-BRSCU Workings) (Chart BPP72)



Jan Feb March April May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec

Residential building 47.90% 17.79% 14.57% 7.74% 6.95% 7.30% 6.86% 6.46% 7.30% 6.69% 8.05% 8.19%

Non-residential buildings -39.42% -24.96% -16.49% -11.56% -10.62% -3.58% -1.91% -0.30% 1.59% 3.78% 6.03% 5.16%

Additions and alterations -0.53% 0.62% 4.96% -1.24% -2.64% -1.94% -4.07% -2.44% -0.86% 0.41% 0.93% 1.72%

Total 3.89% -0.40% 2.35% -0.24% -0.57% 1.86% 1.49% 2.18% 3.49% 4.17% 5.51% 5.55%

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Pe

rce

nta

ge

Cumulative YTD % Change in BPP by Sector: Jan - Dec 2014 vs 2013: M2 (July)(Source: StasSA, BMI-BRSCU Workings: BPP by Month and Sector; Chart 38(13))

CUM YTD ACTUAL CUM YTD FORECAST

CUM % CHANGE BPP BY SECTOR: 1994-2014: M2 www.strategicforum.co.za





Non-residential buildings -43.69% -22.24% -12.50% -4.04% -3.51% 3.81% 6.60% 5.02% 7.31% 8.31% 9.37% 9.45%

Additions and alterations 3.00% 2.59% 6.74% 1.54% -0.10% 0.49% -0.17% 1.38% 2.57% 4.22% 4.35% 4.56%

Total 2.58% 1.73% 5.79% 5.04% 5.17% 8.01% 7.63% 7.03% 8.17% 8.18% 9.04% 8.84%

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

Pe

rce

nta

ge

Cumulative YTD % Change in BPP by Sector: Jan - Dec 2014 vs 2013: R*1000 (July)(Source: StasSA, BMI-BRSCU Workings: BPP by Month and Sector; Chart 38(15))

CUM YTD ACTUAL CUM YTD FORECAST

CUM % CHANGE BC BY SECTOR: 1994-2014: R*1000 www.strategicforum.co.za


© BMI-BRSCU

TOTAL BUILDINGS COMPLETED ENDED 2012 AT – 1,21% in M2 and + 4,74% in R*1000 COMPARED TO 2011.

BUILDINGS COMPLETED: YTD ACTUAL AND FORECAST 2014 VS 2013 www.strategicforum.co.za

10

RES BUILDINGS COMPLETED (BC): YTD ACTUAL* 2014 VS 2013

m2 % R*1000 %

Dwelling-house < 80 square metres -102 752 -24.70% -56 427 -5.19%

Dwelling-house => 80 square metres -201 114 -14.38% -345 126 -4.60%

Flats and townhouses 9 266 1.68% 526 629 16.96%

Other buildings -8 429 -16.84% -42 849 -16.29%

Additions and alterations -352 857 -38.15% -1 180 132 -27.76%

TOTAL -655 886 -19.63% -1 097 905 -6.77%

NON RES BUILDINGS COMPLETED (BC): YTD* 2014 VS 2013

m2 % R*1000 %

Office and banking -303 430 -67.83% -2 112 741 -68.26%

Shopping -21 552 -10.01% 337 282 31.72%


Other buildings -42 285 -27.36% -35 157 -4.90%

Additions and alterations -149 901 -37.58% -670 540 -30.88%

TOTAL -314 459 -19.59% -1 421 416 -16.23%

GRAND TOTAL -970 345 -19.61% -2 519 321 -10.09%

* July 2014

RES BUILDINGS COMPLETED (BC): YTD FORECAST 2014 VS 2013

m2 R*1000


Dwelling-house => 80 square metres -108 422 -3.79% 264 772 1.66%

Flats and townhouses 39 222 3.22% 668 815 9.29%

Other buildings 12 279 13.85% 39 137 7.94%

Additions and alterations -350 753 -20.36% -1 180 719 -14.35%

TOTAL RES -363 799 -5.43% 146 134 0.43%

NON RES BUILDINGS COMPLETED (BC): YTD FORECAST 2014 VS 2013

m2 R*1000

Office and banking -335 379 -42.16% -2 160 278 -38.09%

Shopping 12 493 2.21% 364 068 11.58%


Other buildings 33 677 14.67% 341 907 30.80%


TOTAL NON RES -60 145 -1.87% -162 764 -0.90%

TOTAL RES & NON RES -423 944 -4.28% -16 630 -0.03%

* July 2014

PROGNOSIS: YTD ACTUAL VS FORECAST: BUILDINGS COMPLETED

2013 vs 2012 YTD Actual YTD FC

5.87% -18.92% -5.43%

14.07% -6.42% 0.43%

13.07% -16.66% -1.87%

20.23% -10.13% -0.90%

8.10% -18.19% -4.28%

16.13% -7.71% -0.03%

Buildings Completed Weighted Average (m2) 8.15% -18.18% -4.26%

Buildings Completed Weighted Average (R) 16.17% -7.69% -0.03%

Jul-14

BUILDINGS COMPLETED (BC) (m2 and value)

Total BC (m2)

Total BC (R)

2014 vs 2013

Residential BC (m2)

Residential BC (R)

Non Residential BC (m2)

Non Residential BC (R)



% DIFFERENCE IN CUM YTD ACTUAL BC 2014 VS 2013 www.strategicforum.co.za

11

-28.7

3%

-24.7

0% -5.1

9%

-16.1

8%

-14.3

8%

-4.6

0%

-1.6

4%

1.6

8% 16.9

6%

-16.8

4%

-16.2

9%

0.6

9%

-67.8

3%

-68.2

6%

-10.0

1%

31.7

2%

52.0

8%

61.9

4%

-27.3

6% -4

.90%

-11.4

0%

-38.1

5%

-27.7

6%

-37.5

8%

-30.8

8%

-28.8

2%

-10.0

9%

-200%

-150%

-100%

-50%

0%

50%

100%

No

m2

R'0

00

No

m2

R'0

00

No

m2

R'0

00

m2

R'0

00

R'0

00

m2

R'0

00

m2

R'0

00

m2

R'0

00

m2

R'0

00

R'0

00

m2

R'0

00

m2

R'0

00

R'0

00

R'0

00

Dwellings <80m2

Dwellings >80m2

Flats and TH Other Total Office &Banking


A&A Other A&ATotalTotal

% Difference in Cumulative Y/Y BC: YTD ACTUAL 2014 vs 2013 by Segment (June) (Source: StatsSA, BMI-BRSCU Workings: Chart BC 59)



% DIFFERENCE IN CUM YTD FC BC 2014 VS 2013

www.strategicforum.co.za

12

2.4

2%

5.4

3%

15.2

9%

-4.6

0%

-3.7

9%

1.6

6%

3.0

0%

3.2

2% 9.2

9%

13.8

5%

7.9

4%

5.1

3%

-42.1

6%

-38.0

9%

2.2

1% 1

1.5

8%

25.1

7%

30.6

0%

14.6

7%

30.8

0%

-1.1

5%

-20.3

6%

-14.3

5%

-1.7

1%

0.3

1%

-9.6

3%

0.1

6%

-70%

-50%

-30%

-10%

10%

30%

50%

No

m2

R'0

00

No

m2

R'0

00

No

m2

R'0

00

m2

R'0

00

R'0

00

m2

R'0

00

m2

R'0

00

m2

R'0

00

m2

R'0

00

R'0

00

m2

R'0

00

m2

R'0

00

R'0

00

R'0

00

Dwellings <80m2

Dwellings >80m2

Flats and TH Other Total Office &Banking


A&A Other A&ATotalTotal

% Difference in Cumulative Y/Y BC: YTD FC 2014 vs 2013 by Segment (June)(Source: StatsSA, BMI-BRSCU Workings: Chart BC 58)


© BMI-BRSCU

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ua

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BPP & BC Total Residential (Including A&A): 1993-2014 by month: m2 (Source: StatsSA; BMI-BRSCU: BC by Month and Type of Building: Chart 28(14))

BC TOTAL RESIDENTIAL: M2 BPP TOTAL RESIDENTIAL: M2

12 per. Mov. Avg. (BC TOTAL RESIDENTIAL: M2) 12 per. Mov. Avg. (BPP TOTAL RESIDENTIAL: M2)

© BMI-BRSCU

RESIDENTIAL BPP & BC: 1994-2014: M2 www.strategicforum.co.za

13

The decline in BPP (m2) has halted

and trend is sideways

The decline in BC (m2) has SLOWED

but trend is sideways



RESIDENTIAL BPP & BC: 1994-2014: M2 www.strategicforum.co.za

14

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BPP & BC Residential Flats and Townhouses: 1993-2014 by month: m2(Source: StatsSA; BMI-BRSCU: BC Total RSA by Month and Type of Building: F&TH M2)

BC Flats and Townhouses BC Dwellings < 80 m2 BC Dwellings > 80 m2

12 per. Mov. Avg. (BC Flats and Townhouses) 12 per. Mov. Avg. (BC Dwellings < 80 m2) 12 per. Mov. Avg. (BC Dwellings > 80 m2)


© BMI-BRSCU

-50%

-40%

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-10%

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10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

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Cum Y/Y Percentage Change: BPP & BC: Total Residential (Incl A&A): 1993-2014: m2(Source: StatsSA; BMI-BRSCU: BC Total RSA by Month and Type of Building: % CUM BC BY SEGM & MNTH: Chart 50(14))

% CUM BC BY SEGM& MNTH % CUM BPP BY SEGM& MNTH

12 per. Mov. Avg. (% CUM BC BY SEGM& MNTH) 12 per. Mov. Avg. (% CUM BPP BY SEGM& MNTH)

© BMI-BRSCU

CUM % CHANGE RESIDENTIAL BPP & BC: 1994-2014: M2 www.strategicforum.co.za

15

The decline in BPP (m2) has halted and trend is upwards but slowing

The decline in BC (m2) has halted and trend is

up and down.


© BMI-BRSCU

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R*1

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BPP & BC Total Residential (Including A&A): 1993-2014 by month: R*1000 (Current Values)(Source: StatsSA; BMI-BRSCU: BC Total RSA by Month and Type of Building1993-2008: TOTAL RES BC&BPP R)

BC TOTAL RESIDENTIAL: R*1000 BPP TOTAL RESIDENTIAL: R*1000

12 per. Mov. Avg. (BC TOTAL RESIDENTIAL: R*1000) 12 per. Mov. Avg. (BPP TOTAL RESIDENTIAL: R*1000)

© BMI-BRSCU

RESIDENTIAL BPP & BC: 1994-2014: R*1000 www.strategicforum.co.za

16

The decline in BPP (R*1000) has

halted and trend is strongly upward

The decline in BC (R*1000) has been halted but trend is

gradually upward


© BMI-BRSCU

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Cum Y/Y % Change: BPP & BC: Total Residential (Incl A&A): 1993-2014: R*1000 (Current Values)

(Source: StatsSA; BMI-BRSCU: BC by Month and Type of Building: % CUM BC BY SEGM & MNTH: Chart 51(14))



© BMI-BRSCU

CUM % CHANGE RES BPP & BC: 1994-2014: R*1000 www.strategicforum.co.za

17

The decline in BPP (R*1000) has halted and trend is strongly up and down

The decline in BC (R*1000) has been halted but trend is STRONGLY up

and down


© BMI-BRSCU

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es

BPP & BC Total Non Residential (Including A&A): 1993-2014 by month: m2(Source: StatsSA; BMI-BRSCU: BC by Month and Type of Building: Chart 29(14))

BC TOTAL NON RESIDENTIAL: M2 BPP TOTAL NON RESIDENTIAL: M2

12 per. Mov. Avg. (BC TOTAL NON RESIDENTIAL: M2) 12 per. Mov. Avg. (BPP TOTAL NON RESIDENTIAL: M2)

© BMI-BRSCU

NON RESIDENTIAL BPP & BC: 1994-2014: M2 www.strategicforum.co.za

18


© BMI-BRSCU

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

Sq

ua

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es

Cum Y/Y Percentage Change: BPP & BC:Total Non Residential (Incl A&A): 1993-2014: m2 (Source: StatsSA; BMI-BRSCU: BC by Month and Type of Building: % CUM BC BY SEGM & MNTH: Chart 62(14))

'% CUM BC BY SEGM & MNTH' % CUM BPP BY SEGM& MNTH

12 per. Mov. Avg. ('% CUM BC BY SEGM & MNTH') 12 per. Mov. Avg. (% CUM BPP BY SEGM& MNTH)

© BMI-BRSCU

NON RESIDENTIAL BPP & BC: 1994-2014: M2 www.strategicforum.co.za

19



NON RESIDENTIAL BPP & BC: 1994-2014: R*1000 www.strategicforum.co.za

20

0

500 000

1 000 000

1 500 000

2 000 000

2 500 000

3 000 000

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

R*1

000 (

Cu

rren

t V

alu

es)

BPP & BC Total Non Res (Including A&A): 1993-2014 by month: R*1000 (Current Values)(Source: StatsSA; BMI-BRSCU: BC Total RSA by Month and Type of Building1993-2008: TOTAL NR BC&BPP R)

BC TOTAL NON RESIDENTIAL: R*1000 BPP TOTAL NON RESIDENTIAL: R*1000

12 per. Mov. Avg. (BC TOTAL NON RESIDENTIAL: R*1000) 12 per. Mov. Avg. (BPP TOTAL NON RESIDENTIAL: R*1000)



NON RESIDENTIAL BPP & BC: 1994-2014: R*1000 www.strategicforum.co.za

21

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

R*1

00

0

Cum Y/Y % Change: BPP & BC: Total Non Residential (Incl A&A): 1993-2014: R*1000 (Current Values)

(Source: StatsSA; BMI-BRSCU: BC by Month and Type of Building: % CUM BC BY SEGM & MNTH: Chart 63(14))





TOTAL BPP & BC: 1994-2014: M2 www.strategicforum.co.za

22

200 000

400 000

600 000

800 000

1 000 000

1 200 000

1 400 000

1 600 000

1 800 000

2 000 000

2 200 000

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

m2

BPP & BC Total Building (Including A&A): 1993-2014 by month: m2(Source: StatsSA; BMI-BRSCU: BC Total RSA by Month and Type of Building1993-2008: TOTAL BLDNG BC&BPP R)

BC TOTAL BUILDING: M2 BPP TOTAL BUILDING: M2 12 per. Mov. Avg. (BC TOTAL BUILDING: M2) 12 per. Mov. Avg. (BPP TOTAL BUILDING: M2)



TOTAL BPP & BC: 1994-2014: M2 www.strategicforum.co.za

23

-45%

-40%

-35%

-30%

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

Sq

ua

re M

etr

es

Cum Y/Y Percentage Change: BPP and BC: Total Building (Inc A&A): 1993-2014: m2(Source: StatsSA; BMI-BRSCU: BC by Month and Type of Building: % CUM BC BY SEGM & MNTH: Chart 66(14))



Total BC turned at about – 30% and moved to positive growth in 2013 followed by a downward trend in 2014 . . .

Total BPP has turned at -30% and has breached zero in MID 2011, grew strongly up to mid-2013 and declined again but still in positive zone. . .



TOTAL BPP & BC: 1994-2014: R*1000 www.strategicforum.co.za

24

0

1 000 000

2 000 000

3 000 000

4 000 000

5 000 000

6 000 000

7 000 000

8 000 000

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

R*1

000 (

Cu

rren

t V

alu

es)

BPP & BC Total Building: 1993-2014 by month: R*1000 (Current Values)(Source: StatsSA; BMI-BRSCU: BC Total RSA by Month and Type of Building1993-2008: TOTAL BLDNG BC&BPP R)

BC TOTAL BUILDING: R*1000 BPP TOTAL BUILDING: R*1000

12 per. Mov. Avg. (BC TOTAL BUILDING: R*1000) 12 per. Mov. Avg. (BPP TOTAL BUILDING: R*1000)



TOTAL BPP & BC: 1994-2014: R*1000 www.strategicforum.co.za

25

-50%

-45%

-40%

-35%

-30%

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

55%

60%

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

R*1

00

0

Cum Y/Y % Ch: BPP and BC: Total Building (Incl A&A): 1993-2014: R*1000 (Current Values) (Source: StatsSA; BMI-BRSCU: BC by Month and Type of Building: % CUM BC BY SEGM & MNTH: Chart 67(14))





CUM % CHANGE BC BY SECTOR: 1994-2014: M2 www.strategicforum.co.za

26


Residential building -2.07% -8.20% -8.78% -11.95% -12.75% -12.54% -11.17% -8.33% -6.12% -4.76% -2.21% -0.26%

Non-residential buildings 118.44% 0.65% 3.45% 2.46% -8.89% -13.64% -10.55% -11.67% -7.13% -3.00% -6.11% -1.91%

Additions and alterations -9.57% -16.89% -25.48% -37.70% -38.21% -37.98% -38.37% -32.45% -27.50% -23.08% -17.87% -15.17%

Total 12.88% -8.45% -10.60% -15.86% -18.85% -19.61% -18.19% -15.38% -11.80% -8.91% -7.04% -4.28%

-50%

-30%

-10%

10%

30%

50%

70%

90%

110%

130%

Sq

ua

re M

etr

es

Cum Y/Y % Change in Buildings Completed by Sector: Jan - Dec 2014: M2 (JULY)(Source: StatsSA, BMI-BRSCU Workings: BC by Month and Sector; Chart 10(15))

YTD CUM ACTUAL YTD CUM FORECAST



CUM % CHANGE BC BY SECTOR: 1994-2014: R*1000 www.strategicforum.co.za



Non-residential buildings 135.73% 3.57% 3.57% 3.01% -7.99% -11.40% -3.42% -6.81% -2.82% 0.33% -4.44% -1.15%

Additions and alterations -1.91% -14.43% -20.66% -30.63% -29.86% -28.82% -29.74% -23.91% -20.50% -17.28% -12.26% -9.63%

Total 27.00% -2.77% -2.50% -6.29% -9.40% -10.09% -7.71% -6.93% -5.09% -3.30% -2.47% -0.01%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

160%

R*1

00

0 (

Cu

rre

nt

Va

lue

s)

Cum Y/Y % Change in Buildings Completed by Sector: Jan - Dec 2014: R*1000 (June)(Source: StatsSA, BMI-BRSCU Workings: BC by Month and Sector; Chart 10(16))

YTD CUM ACTUAL YTD CUM FORECAST


© BMI-BRSCU

BPP & BC, CEMENT AND LUMBER SALES: YTD ACUAL AND FC 2014 www.strategicforum.co.za

28

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

Perc

en

tag

e

Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14

Total Res BC Cum YTD % Change (m2) -1.45% -11.61%-13.14%-18.70%-19.76%-19.63%-18.92%-15.37%-12.59%-10.41% -7.50% -5.43%

Total Non Res BC Cum YTD % Change (m2) 61.45% -1.17% -4.76% -9.67% -16.97%-19.59%-16.66%-15.41%-10.16% -5.75% -6.09% -1.87%

Total BC Cum YTD % Change (m2) 12.88% -8.45% -10.60%-15.86%-18.85%-19.61%-18.19%-15.38%-11.80% -8.91% -7.04% -4.28%

Total Residential BPP (m2) 33.40% 13.65% 11.82% 5.00% 4.34% 4.69% 3.93% 3.90% 4.83% 4.40% 5.21% 5.46%

Total Non Residential BPP (m2) -35.74%-22.33%-13.20% -9.72% -9.63% -3.67% -3.24% -1.11% 0.95% 3.73% 6.07% 5.72%

Total Building BPP (m2) 3.89% -0.40% 2.35% -0.24% -0.57% 1.86% 1.49% 2.18% 3.49% 4.17% 5.51% 5.55%

Local Building Lumber Sales (m3) 16.99% 15.50% 14.26% 14.43% 12.54% 12.48% 12.19% 10.13% 9.44% 6.81% 6.31% 7.00%

Domestic Cement Sales (Tonnes) -5.35% -5.35% -5.35% -3.83% -2.88% -2.23% -1.85% -1.56% -1.32% -1.14% -0.99% -0.90%

Cumulative YTD Buildings Completed (BC), Domestic Cement Sales and Local Building Lumber Sales: % Change by Sector: January - Dec 2014 (June)

(Source: StatsSA; BMI-BRSCU Workings)

CUM FORECASTCUM ACTUAL











29


© BMI-BRSCU

0

200 000

400 000

600 000

800 000

1 000 000

1 200 000

1 400 000

1 600 000

1 800 000

2 000 000

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

Sq

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Total Residential: 1993-2014: BC, Net Building in the Pipeline (NBIP): by month: m2

(Source: StatsSA, BMI-BRSCU: BC Total RSA by Month and Type of Building: NBIP (BPP-BC): Chart 77(14))

Total Residential NBIP

Total Residential BC

Total Residential BPP

12 per. Mov. Avg. (Total Residential NBIP)

12 per. Mov. Avg. (Total Residential BC)

12 per. Mov. Avg. (Total Residential BPP)

NBIP = 70.4%*BC

NBIP = 45.52%*BC

NBIP = 51,11%*BC

RES NET BUILDING IN THE PIPELINE: M2: 1993-2014 www.strategicforum.co.za

30

Total Residential BC Trend-break occurred in mid 2006. NBIP (m2) showing improvement( toward the 70% mark?)


© BMI-BRSCU

RES NET BUILDING IN THE PIPELINE: R*1000: 1993-2014 www.strategicforum.co.za

31

-1 000 000

0

1 000 000

2 000 000

3 000 000

4 000 000

5 000 000

6 000 000

7 000 000

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

R*1

00

0 (

Cu

rre

nt

Va

lue

s)

Total Residential: 1993-2014: BC, Net Building in the Pipeline (NBIP): by month: R*1000 (Current Values)

(Source: StatsSA, BMI-BRSCU: BC Total RSA by Month and Type of Building1993-2008: NBIP (BPP-BC): Chart 78(14))

Total Residential NBIP

Total Residential BC

Total Res BPP

12 per. Mov. Avg. (Total Residential NBIP)

12 per. Mov. Avg. (Total Residential BC)

2 per. Mov. Avg. (Total Res BPP)

12 per. Mov. Avg. (Total Res BPP)

NBIP = 84.31%*BC NBIP = 53.83%*BC NBIP = 56,67*BC


© BMI-BRSCU

0

50 000

100 000

150 000

200 000

250 000

300 000

350 000

400 000

450 000

500 000

550 000

600 000

650 000

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

Sq

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es

Total Non Residential: 1993-2014: BC, Net Building in the Pipeline (NBIP): by Month: m2 (Source: StatsSA, BMI-BRSCU: BC Total RSA by Month and Type of Building: NBIP (BPP-BC): Chart 79(14))

NBIP Total Non Residential

BC Total Non Residential

BPP Total Non Residential

12 per. Mov. Avg. (NBIP Total Non Residential)

12 per. Mov. Avg. (BC Total Non Residential)

12 per. Mov. Avg. (BPP Total Non Residential)

NBIP = 76.4%*BC

NBIP = 42.83%*BC

NBIP = 58,99%*BC

© BMI-BRSCU

NON RES NET BUILDING IN THE PIPELINE: M2: 1993-2014 www.strategicforum.co.za

32

Total Non Residential BC Trend-break occurred in early 2007. NBIP (m2) showing improvement (toward the 76% mark?)



NON RES NET BUILDING IN THE PIPELINE: R*1000: 1993-2014 www.strategicforum.co.za

33

-500 000

0

500 000

1 000 000

1 500 000

2 000 000

2 500 000

3 000 000

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

R*1

00

0 (

Cu

rre

nt

Va

lue

s)

Total Non Residential: 1993-2014: BC, Net Building in the Pipeline (NBIP): by Month: R*1000 (Source: StatsSA, BMI-BRSCU: BC Total RSA by Month and Type of Building: NBIP (BPP-BC): Chart 79(14))

NBIP Total Non Residential

BC Total Non Residential

BPP Total Non Residential

12 per. Mov. Avg. (NBIP Total Non Residential)

12 per. Mov. Avg. (BC Total Non Residential)

12 per. Mov. Avg. (BPP Total Non Residential)

NBIP = 91,15%*BC NBIP = 47.17%*BC

NBIP = 67,19%*BC


© BMI-BRSCU

0

200 000

400 000

600 000

800 000

1 000 000

1 200 000

1 400 000

1 600 000

1 800 000

2 000 000

2 200 000

2 400 000

2 600 000

199

3

199

4

199

5

199

6

199

7

199

8

199

9

200

0

200

1

200

2

200

3

200

4

200

5

200

6

200

7

200

8

200

9

201

0

201

1

201

2

201

3

201

4

Sq

ua

re M

etr

es

Total Building: BC: 1993-2014: Net Building in the Pipeline (NBIP): by Month: m2 (Source: StatsSA, BMI-BRSCU: BC Total RSA by Month and Type of Building: NBIP (BPP-BC): Chart 80(14))

Total Building NBIP (BPP-BC)

Total Building BC

Total Building BPP

12 per. Mov. Avg. (Total Building NBIP (BPP-BC))

12 per. Mov. Avg. (Total Building BC)

12 per. Mov. Avg. (Total Building BPP)

NBIP = 71.8%*BC

NBIP = 44.02%*BC

NBIP = 52,11%*BC

© BMI-BRSCU

TOTAL NET BUILDING IN THE PIPELINE: M2: 1993-2014 www.strategicforum.co.za

34

Total Building BC Trend-break occurred in late 2006. NBIP (m2) showing improvement (toward the 72% mark?)


© BMI-BRSCU

-500 000

500 000

1 500 000

2 500 000

3 500 000

4 500 000

5 500 000

6 500 000

7 500 000

199

3

199

4

199

5

199

6

199

7

199

8

199

9

200

0

200

1

200

2

200

3

200

4

200

5

200

6

200

7

200

8

200

9

201

0

201

1

201

2

201

3

201

4

R*1

00

0 (

Cu

rre

nt

Va

lue

s)

Total Building: BC: 1993-2014: Net Building in the Pipeline (NBIP): by Month: R*1000 (Current Values)

(Source: StatsSA, BMI-BRSCU: BC Total RSA by Month and Type of Building: NBIP (BPP-BC): Chart 81(14))

Total Building NBIP (BPP-BC)

Total Building BC

Total Building BPP

12 per. Mov. Avg. (Total Building NBIP (BPP-BC))

12 per. Mov. Avg. (Total Building BC)

12 per. Mov. Avg. (Total Building BPP)

NBIP = 87.06%*BC

NBIP = 45.25%*BC

NBIP = 65,27%*BC

© BMI-BRSCU

TOTAL NET BUILDING IN THE PIPELINE: R*1000: 1993-2014 www.strategicforum.co.za

Total BC Trend-break occurred in mid 2006. NBIP (R*1000) showing improvement( toward the 87% mark?)

Recovery is on the way. Confirmed by improving NBIP.

35











36



Current Reality and Outlook for Building and Construction Activity by

Sector and Segment: 2013 - 2020 (m2 & Constant 2013 Value)

37

Jun-14 2013 vs 2012 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

MORTGAGE ADVANCES (VALUE) YTD Actual YTD FC FORECAST FORECAST FORECAST FORECAST FORECAST FORECAST FORECAST AVERAGE

Mortgage Advances on Existing Buildings 7.24% 34.36% 16.72% 4.35% 3.08% 2.34% 4.00% 5.66% 6.30% 6.89% 4.66%

Mortgage Advances on Construction of New Buildings 10.22% 99.26% 39.81% 4.88% 9.52% 5.35% 6.97% 8.60% 9.17% 9.71% 7.74%

Mortgage Advances on Vacant Land -47.57% 49.41% 85.30% 6.49% 6.99% 5.87% 5.04% 6.67% 0.00% 8.89% 5.71%

Total Gross New Mortgage Loans and Re-advances 6.49% 39.55% 19.18% 4.35% 3.08% 2.34% 4.00% 5.66% 6.30% 6.89% 4.66%

Total Mortgage Loans Outstanding 1.72% 3.32% 6.98% 4.35% 3.08% 2.34% 4.00% 5.66% 6.30% 6.89% 4.66%

Mortgage Advances Weighted Average 2.70% 11.85% 11.10% 4.36% 3.18% 2.39% 4.04% 5.71% 6.33% 6.94% 4.71%

PROGNOSIS: YTD ACTUAL VS FORECAST: GFCF

2013 vs 2012

GROSS FIXED CAPITAL FORMATION (VALUE) YTD Actual YTD FC FC 2014 FC 2015 FC 2016 FC 2017 FC 2018 FC 2019 FC 2020 AVERAGE

2.80% 0.92% 4.35% 6.10% 9.71% 5.00% 3.00% 5.50% 6.50% 8.00% 6.26%

7.97% 6.44% 8.00% 7.00% 8.50% 6.90% 4.00% 4.50% 5.00% 6.00% 5.99%

5.97% 3.37% 6.12% 6.66% 8.28% 6.19% 3.63% 4.87% 5.55% 6.74% 5.99%

6.79% 22.87% 9.82% -2.50% -2.00% 5.00% 7.50% 8.00% 8.90% 5.30% 4.31%

Gross Fixed Capital Formation Weighted Average 5.99% 12.53% 7.95% 2.48% 3.77% 5.65% 5.39% 6.30% 7.08% 6.09% 5.25%


2013 vs 2012

YTD Actual YTD FC FC 2014 FC 2015 FC 2016 FC 2017 FC 2018 FC 2019 FC 2020 AVERAGE

4.84% 3.93% 5.46% 4.53% 4.13% 3.96% 2.86% 4.02% 5.55% 5.69% 4.39%

12.47% 10.06% 8.47% 3.71% 3.91% 3.74% 2.71% 4.52% 6.07% 6.22% 4.41%

21.04% -3.24% 5.72% 20.06% 9.28% 4.91% 3.99% 4.60% 3.63% 7.26% 7.68%

28.22% 3.27% 8.94% 18.19% 9.64% 7.51% 4.64% 4.73% 4.24% 6.99% 7.99%

9.95% 1.49% 5.55% 9.92% 6.09% 4.33% 3.30% 4.25% 4.79% 6.31% 5.57%

17.71% 7.63% 8.64% 8.95% 6.16% 5.27% 3.51% 4.61% 5.30% 6.54% 5.76%

Building Plans Passed Weighted Average (m2) 9.95% 1.63% 5.55% 9.93% 6.00% 4.31% 3.28% 4.23% 4.84% 6.27% 5.55%

Building Plans Passed Weighted Average (R) 6.68% 7.68% 8.64% 8.96% 6.08% 5.19% 3.46% 4.60% 5.35% 6.52% 5.74%


2013 vs 2012 YTD Actual YTD FC FC 2014 FC 2015 FC 2016 FC 2017 FC 2018 FC 2019 FC 2020 AVERAGE

5.87% -18.92% -5.43% 5.40% 4.56% 4.39% 3.48% 4.32% 5.86% 6.01% 4.86%

14.07% -6.42% 0.43% 3.95% 4.23% 4.05% 3.25% 5.03% 6.59% 6.74% 4.83%

13.07% -16.66% -1.87% 12.30% 9.05% 5.02% 3.89% 4.43% 3.57% 6.90% 6.45%

20.23% -10.13% -0.90% 7.88% 9.23% 6.81% 4.40% 4.63% 4.12% 6.65% 6.25%

8.10% -18.19% -4.28% 7.64% 6.08% 4.61% 3.62% 4.36% 5.06% 6.32% 5.38%

16.13% -7.71% -0.03% 3.95% 4.23% 4.05% 3.25% 5.03% 6.59% 6.74% 4.83%

Buildings Completed Weighted Average (m2) 8.15% -18.18% -4.26% 7.66% 6.07% 4.60% 3.62% 4.36% 5.08% 6.31% 5.39%

Buildings Completed Weighted Average (R) 16.17% -7.69% -0.03% 4.63% 5.08% 4.53% 3.44% 4.96% 6.16% 6.73% 5.08%

PROGNOSIS: YTD ACTUAL VS FORECAST: CEMENT SALES


DOMESTIC CEMENT SALES (Tonnes) 5.26% -5.35% -0.90% 0.32% 1.62% 4.52% 5.00% 6.00% 6.57% 5.36% 4.20%

PROGNOSIS: YTD ACTUAL VS FORECAST: LOCAL BUILDING LUMBER SALES


0.38% 12.19% 7.00% 5.40% 4.56% 4.39% 3.48% 24.19% -11.47% 5.86% 5.20%

PROGNOSIS: YTD ACTUAL VS FORECAST BY INDICATOR


5.94% -4.85% 1.85% 5.83% 4.56% 4.46% 3.84% 9.70% 1.26% 5.95% 5.08%

7.88% 8.37% 6.91% 5.11% 4.53% 4.44% 4.08% 5.39% 6.23% 6.57% 5.19%

Source: BMI-BRSCU

2014 vs 2013

OVERALL AVERAGE (m2)

OVERALL AVERAGE (R)


Total BPP (m2)

Total BPP (R)

Jul-14


Jul-14

GFCF Total Building



Total BC (m2)

Total BC (R)


PROGNOSIS: YTD ACTUAL VS FORECAST BY SECTOR

PROGNOSIS: YTD ACTUAL VS FORECAST: MORTGAGE ADVANCES

2014 vs 2013

2014 vs 2013

2014 vs 2013

2014 vs 2013

LOCAL BUILDING LUMBER SALES (m3)

Jul-14

2014 vs 2013

Residential BC (m2)

Residential BC (R)



GFCF Residential

2014 vs 2013

GFCF Non Residential

Jul-14

Jun-14

Mar-14

Residential BPP (R)

GFCF Construction










38



CURRENT REALITY OF INVESTMENT IN BUILDING &

CONSTRUCTION: 2013

Total Building Total Construction

Residential

Contractor (50,8%)

R 77 391

Non Residential Subcontractor (49,2%)

R 74 953

Unrec Add's and Alt's Direct to User (40%)

Large Chain BM (25%) Large Ind BM (10%)

Specialist Shop (5%) Hyper/Super Market (5%)Local Hardware Store (15%)

R 228 517

R 11 426

(Copyright) BMI-BRSCU

R 152 344

Material (60%)

R 22 852

R 91 407

R 11 426R 34 277

Indirect via Distribution (60%)

R 137 110

R 70 064

(R MILLION)

R 57 129

R 186 982

Total Bldng and Constr

R 380 861R 193 879

R 69 697

R 54 118

Labour (40%)

CURRENT REALITY OF INVESTMENT IN BUILDING AND CONSTRUCTION: YTD 2013 (DEC)

© BMI-BRSCU

CURRENT REALITY OF INVESTMENT IN BUILDING: 2013 www.strategicforum.co.za

Total Building

Residential (Excl A&A)

Contractor (50,8%)

33.53% R 39 396

Non Res (Excl A&A) Subcontractor (49,2%)

R 38 15533.78%

Add's & Alt's (Rec & Unrec) Direct to User (40%)

30.16%

R 188 979 97.47%


Specialist Shop (5%) Hyper/Super Market (5%)

R 65 001 Labour (40%)

R 5 816

R 193 879 R 193 879

R 77 552

R 58 476

R 29 082

R 65 502

R 46 531


R 69 796 R 11 633

Local Hardware Store (15%)

R 5 816


CURRENT REALITY OF INVESTMENT IN BUILDING: YTD 2013 (DEC)

(R MILLION)

R 17 449

R 116 327

Total Building

Material (60%)


© BMI-BRSCU

CURRENT REALITY OF INVESTMENT IN CONSTRUCTION: 2013 www.strategicforum.co.za

Total Construction

Contractor (50,8%)

R 37 995

Subcontractor (49,2%)

R 36 798

Direct to User (40%)


Specialist Shop (5%) Hyper/Super Market (5%)

R 11 219

Local Hardware Store (15%)


R 28 047 R 67 314


CURRENT REALITY OF INVESTMENT IN CONSTRUCTION: YTD 2013 (DEC)

(R MILLION)Total Construction

Labour (40%)

R 5 609 R 16 828

R 186 982

Material (60%)

R 112 189

R 74 793

R 44 876

R 5 609

R 186 982











42



% CHANGE IN INVESTMENT IN BUILDING & CONSTRUCTION:


Jun-14 2013 vs 2012 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

MORTGAGE ADVANCES (VALUE) YTD Actual YTD FC FORECAST FORECAST FORECAST FORECAST FORECAST FORECAST FORECAST AVERAGE

Mortgage Advances on Existing Buildings 7.24% 34.36% 16.72% 4.35% 3.08% 2.34% 4.00% 5.66% 6.30% 6.89% 4.66%

Mortgage Advances on Construction of New Buildings 10.22% 99.26% 39.81% 4.88% 9.52% 5.35% 6.97% 8.60% 9.17% 9.71% 7.74%

Mortgage Advances on Vacant Land -47.57% 49.41% 85.30% 6.49% 6.99% 5.87% 5.04% 6.67% 0.00% 8.89% 5.71%

Total Gross New Mortgage Loans and Re-advances 6.49% 39.55% 19.18% 4.35% 3.08% 2.34% 4.00% 5.66% 6.30% 6.89% 4.66%

Total Mortgage Loans Outstanding 1.72% 3.32% 6.98% 4.35% 3.08% 2.34% 4.00% 5.66% 6.30% 6.89% 4.66%

Mortgage Advances Weighted Average 2.70% 11.85% 11.10% 4.36% 3.18% 2.39% 4.04% 5.71% 6.33% 6.94% 4.71%

PROGNOSIS: YTD ACTUAL VS FORECAST: GFCF

2013 vs 2012

GROSS FIXED CAPITAL FORMATION (VALUE) YTD Actual YTD FC FC 2014 FC 2015 FC 2016 FC 2017 FC 2018 FC 2019 FC 2020 AVERAGE

2.80% 0.92% 4.35% 6.10% 9.71% 5.00% 3.00% 5.50% 6.50% 8.00% 6.26%

7.97% 6.44% 8.00% 7.00% 8.50% 6.90% 4.00% 4.50% 5.00% 6.00% 5.99%

5.97% 3.37% 6.12% 6.66% 8.28% 6.19% 3.63% 4.87% 5.55% 6.74% 5.99%

6.79% 22.87% 9.82% -2.50% -2.00% 5.00% 7.50% 8.00% 8.90% 5.30% 4.31%

Gross Fixed Capital Formation Weighted Average 5.99% 12.53% 7.95% 2.48% 3.77% 5.65% 5.39% 6.30% 7.08% 6.09% 5.25%


2013 vs 2012

YTD Actual YTD FC FC 2014 FC 2015 FC 2016 FC 2017 FC 2018 FC 2019 FC 2020 AVERAGE

4.84% 3.93% 5.46% 4.53% 4.13% 3.96% 2.86% 4.02% 5.55% 5.69% 4.39%

12.47% 10.06% 8.47% 3.71% 3.91% 3.74% 2.71% 4.52% 6.07% 6.22% 4.41%

21.04% -3.24% 5.72% 20.06% 9.28% 4.91% 3.99% 4.60% 3.63% 7.26% 7.68%

28.22% 3.27% 8.94% 18.19% 9.64% 7.51% 4.64% 4.73% 4.24% 6.99% 7.99%

9.95% 1.49% 5.55% 9.92% 6.09% 4.33% 3.30% 4.25% 4.79% 6.31% 5.57%

17.71% 7.63% 8.64% 8.95% 6.16% 5.27% 3.51% 4.61% 5.30% 6.54% 5.76%

Building Plans Passed Weighted Average (m2) 9.95% 1.63% 5.55% 9.93% 6.00% 4.31% 3.28% 4.23% 4.84% 6.27% 5.55%

Building Plans Passed Weighted Average (R) 6.68% 7.68% 8.64% 8.96% 6.08% 5.19% 3.46% 4.60% 5.35% 6.52% 5.74%



5.87% -18.92% -5.43% 5.40% 4.56% 4.39% 3.48% 4.32% 5.86% 6.01% 4.86%

14.07% -6.42% 0.43% 3.95% 4.23% 4.05% 3.25% 5.03% 6.59% 6.74% 4.83%

13.07% -16.66% -1.87% 12.30% 9.05% 5.02% 3.89% 4.43% 3.57% 6.90% 6.45%

20.23% -10.13% -0.90% 7.88% 9.23% 6.81% 4.40% 4.63% 4.12% 6.65% 6.25%

8.10% -18.19% -4.28% 7.64% 6.08% 4.61% 3.62% 4.36% 5.06% 6.32% 5.38%

16.13% -7.71% -0.03% 3.95% 4.23% 4.05% 3.25% 5.03% 6.59% 6.74% 4.83%

Buildings Completed Weighted Average (m2) 8.15% -18.18% -4.26% 7.66% 6.07% 4.60% 3.62% 4.36% 5.08% 6.31% 5.39%

Buildings Completed Weighted Average (R) 16.17% -7.69% -0.03% 4.63% 5.08% 4.53% 3.44% 4.96% 6.16% 6.73% 5.08%

PROGNOSIS: YTD ACTUAL VS FORECAST: CEMENT SALES


DOMESTIC CEMENT SALES (Tonnes) 5.26% -5.35% -0.90% 0.32% 1.62% 4.52% 5.00% 6.00% 6.57% 5.36% 4.20%

PROGNOSIS: YTD ACTUAL VS FORECAST: LOCAL BUILDING LUMBER SALES


0.38% 12.19% 7.00% 5.40% 4.56% 4.39% 3.48% 24.19% -11.47% 5.86% 5.20%

PROGNOSIS: YTD ACTUAL VS FORECAST BY INDICATOR


5.94% -4.85% 1.85% 5.83% 4.56% 4.46% 3.84% 9.70% 1.26% 5.95% 5.08%

7.88% 8.37% 6.91% 5.11% 4.53% 4.44% 4.08% 5.39% 6.23% 6.57% 5.19%

Source: BMI-BRSCU

2014 vs 2013

OVERALL AVERAGE (m2)

OVERALL AVERAGE (R)


Total BPP (m2)

Total BPP (R)

Jul-14


Jul-14

GFCF Total Building



Total BC (m2)

Total BC (R)


PROGNOSIS: YTD ACTUAL VS FORECAST BY SECTOR

PROGNOSIS: YTD ACTUAL VS FORECAST: MORTGAGE ADVANCES

2014 vs 2013

2014 vs 2013

2014 vs 2013

2014 vs 2013

LOCAL BUILDING LUMBER SALES (m3)

Jul-14

2014 vs 2013

Residential BC (m2)

Residential BC (R)



GFCF Residential

2014 vs 2013

GFCF Non Residential

Jul-14

Jun-14

Mar-14

Residential BPP (R)

GFCF Construction

Average growth over the next 7 years looks

good . . .










44





2014-2020 Average

R*Million R*Million % %

25 989 3 713 1.61% 0.85%

126 331 18 047 7.81% 4.11%

67 828 9 690 4.19% 2.21%

4 979 711 0.31% 0.16%

59 374 8 482 3.67% 1.93%

194 217 27 745 12.01% 6.32%

34 926 4 989 2.16% 1.14%

414 59 0.03% 0.01%

50 195 7 171 3.10% 1.63%

564 253 80 608 34.89% 18.37%

27 629 3 947 1.71% 0.90%

40 202 5 743 2.49% 1.31%

35 535 5 076 2.20% 1.16%

9 691 1 384 0.60% 0.32%

52 564 7 509 3.25% 1.71%

169 760 24 251 10.50% 5.53%

40 540 5 791 2.51% 1.32%

253 367 36 195

629 287 89 898 38.91% 20.48%

359 960 51 423 22.26% 11.72%

63 684 9 098 3.94% 2.07%

1 617 183 231 026 100.00% 52.64%

670 484 95 78346.08% 21.82%

510 541 72 93435.09% 16.62%

273 932 39 133 18.83% 8.92%

1 454 957 181 870 100.00% 47.36%

3 072 139 384 017 100.00%

1 152 052

1 920 087

3 840 174

©BMI-BRSCU

Unrecorded Res Add's and Alt's

Unrecorded Non Res Add's and Alt's

GRAND TOTAL

CONSTRUCTION

General Government

Public Corporations

Private Business Enterprises

TOTAL NON RESIDENTIAL

Shops

Industrial & warehouse

Other

Additions & Alterations

PUBLIC NON-RESIDENTIAL

Public authorities.

Private Business Enterprises

TOTAL RESIDENTIAL

PRIVATE NON-RESIDENTIAL

Offices

Additions & alterations

General government

Public corporations

Private business enterprises

TOTAL CONSTRUCTION

TOTAL BLDNG AND CONSTR

3 years (2013-2015)

5 years (2013-2017)

8 years (2013-2020)

INVESTMENT IN BUILDING & CONSTRUCTION: 2014-2020: LMR SOYUZ SCENARIO

SECTOR AND SEGMENT

PRIVATE RESIDENTIAL

Dwelling-houses < 80 m2

Dwelling-houses > 80 m2

Townhouses & Flats

Other (Incl. hotels & casinos)

Affordable Housing

General Government

PUBLIC RESIDENTIAL

Investment in Building and

Construction over the next

3 years will be some

R1,15 Trillion . . .


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Sense making Update:

Year To Date 2014 (June 2014) Dr. Llewellyn B. Lewis


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