Birth, Death, and Immortality – Can People and Companies...
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Birth, Death, and Immortality – Can People and Companies Live Forever? Mark Bünger VP of Research October 19, 2016
Transcript of Birth, Death, and Immortality – Can People and Companies...
Birth,Death,andImmortality–CanPeopleandCompaniesLiveForever?
MarkBünger
VPofResearch
October19,2016
Asimpletruth
GrowingoldishardButitisbetterthanthe
alternative
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Agingisnolongeradeathsentence
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Lifeexpectancycontinuestorise
Activeseniorsand“aginginplace”
Golfcourse=Heaven’swaitingroom
Isgolfreallyworthlivingfor?
VCsaretakingimmortalityseriously…Seriously?
Almostallhealthinnovationincreasesaveragelifespan
Nowforthefirsttime,seriousscientistsandcompaniesaretryingtoincreasemaximumlifespan
…andventurecapitalistsaresteppingup.
“Our investors are a diverse group of individuals and companies who share our common goal and passion of changing healthcare, tackling the diseases of aging, and extending the healthy human lifespan.” Human Longevity Inc
“Evidenceisemergingthatsomeexistingdrugshavemodesteffectsonlifespan,givinganextra10yearsorsooflife.‘Wecandevelopeffectivecombinationsforlifeextensionrightnowusingavailabledrugs,’saysMikhailBlagosklonnyoftheRoswellParkCancerInstituteinNewYork.”
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Companieshavenosuchhope
Corporationsarepeople–buttheirprognosisisTERRIBLE
In60years,88%ofFortune500hasdied
AndlifespanisSHRINKING FiveyearcompanymortalityriskforpubliccompaniestradedintheUS,isnowat32%comparedwitha5%risk50yearsago
Atthisrate,what%ofGlobal1000willbealivein2075?
0%!
Sameattrition–decimated!-by2027!
Corporatehealthcrisismakesanyhumanhealthcrisislooklikeamildcold
AHHH!
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Source:KaufmannFoundation
Yet–manycompaniesdoliveincrediblylonglives
3oftheoldestcompaniesmakedrums
1609AsanoTaikoJapan
1689NishinoJapan
1623AvedisZildjianTurkey
4oftheoldestcompaniesmakedolls
1650 KoshuyaJapan
1656 KogatanayaJapan
1657 NakayamaDollJapan
1693 SuzutameJapan
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Unlikepeople,theoldestcompaniescanliveforCENTURIES
Source:Wikipedia,LuxResearch,various
Aretherenational“diets”and“genes”forcorporatelongevity?
Howmanycompaniesfoundedbefore1700arealivetoday?973!
Whichcountryhastheoldestcompanies?Japan!
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0 500 1000 1500 2000
CanadaLithuaniaNorwayUkrainePortugal
UnitedStatesTurkeySpain
EstoniaChina
CzechRepublicSweden
NetherlandsSlovakiaFinlandPoland
SwitzerlandDenmarkBelgiumFrance
ItalyUK
IrelandGermanyAustriaJapan
Countries-yearoldestcofounded
Japan,516
Germany,180
Austria,43
UK,43
Switzerland,39
France,27
Italy,25Netherlands,23
China,11
CzechRepublic,9UnitedStates,9Belgium,8Sweden,8Poland,6Spain,5Ireland,4Norway,3Portugal,3Finland,2Slovakia,2Turkey,2Canada,1Denmark,1Estonia,1Lithuania,1Ukraine,1
CountofCompany
Source:Wikipedia,LuxResearch,various
Whatindustrieshavethelongest-livedcompanies?
Theoldestcompany(KongōGumi,est578)isinconstruction
Foodandbeveragedominates,with472companies
Whatkindof“food”?Alcoholandcandy(67%ofcompanies)
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0 500 1000 1500 2000
Textiles
Finance
Health
Materials
Information
Agriculture
Household
Food
Retail
Manufacturing
Transportation
Building
Industries-yearoldestcompanyfounded
?,10Agriculture,14
Building,34Finance,16
Food,472
Health,43
Information,39
Manufacturing,54
Materials,29
Retail,24
Textiles,46
Transportation,126
Household,66
Livingcompaniesfoundedbefore1800
Beer,104
Candy,71
Food,158
Spirits,94
Wine,45
Oldestfoodcompanies,bymainproduct
Source:Wikipedia,LuxResearch,various
Transportation
Unlikepeople,companiesarenotanendinandofthemselves
Theyareameanstoanend,andthatendisrisk
Corporations–corpus,body-Limitedliabilityperson–sharetherisksowecantakemoreofit
Shippingwasdependentonthisstructurebecausetherisksweresobig
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Anothersimpletruth
AshipissafeinaharborButthat’snotwhatashipisfor
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Beforewetrytoliveforever,let’strytojustsurviveanormallifespan
Stopdoingwhatkillsyou
What’stheequivalentofsmoking,sedentarylifestyle,etcforcompanies?
ThoughttobeOK,butnot
Easilypreventable
Keepdoingwhat’shealthy
What’stheequivalentofweight,EKG,etcforcompanies?
Basicmeasureofvitality
Easytomeasure
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AdetailedanalysisoftheF500
500companiesover60years
12oforiginal500remain
488enteredandremain
1575exited–why?!?
Contributions:
• AnalysisbySamArbesman,thenKaufmannFoundation
• VisualizationbyBenFry,Fathom
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rank
1
500
DowChemical
1414
$
$500billion
$50million
DowChemical
1515
$50billion
-$100billion
$ loss
profit
DowChemical
Evolution(1995-2010)ofFortune500companiesbyRank,Revenue,andProfit
Rank Revenue Profit
Units:numberHigh:1Low:500
Units:$US,logscaleHigh:$500billionLow:$50million
Units:$US,logscaleHigh:$50billionLow:$100billionloss
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So,let’sfindsomelosers!(andsurvivors)
Exceptionprovestherule:P&G’scatastrophicyear1994wasduetofinancialshenanigans,notoperatingloss
Whatgiveslonglife?SteadyasshegoesPepsico,Exxon,andProcter&Gamblemadeitalltheway
Pepsico
Exxon
Procter&Gamble
Suddendeathisrare–mostfailuresflailfor10-20yearsbeforecollapse
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Motorola1928-2011
MaxusEnergy
1928-1995
ARMCO1899-1994
CombustionEngineering
1912-1990
Zenith1911-1995
Whatkillscompanies?LowgrowthandnewtechSteel,1980-1990
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Whatkillscompanies?LowgrowthandnewtechSteel,1980-1990
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1980
Recession=Marketshrank
Newtechnology=sizeofplantshrank
Whatkillscompanies?Low/nogrowthaloneCarmakers1980,1992,2001,2008
Witheveryrecession,acarmakergoesunder
Whoisnext?
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Whatkillscompanies?NewtechnologyaloneMainframecomputers,1985-1995
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Themarketforcomputerswasgrowingrapidly
ButPC(Intelx86)technologybeatmainframesoncost/performance
Resurrectingyourself:in1991-93,evenIBM“died”-andshiftedtointegratedservices
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The$2.8-billionlossforallof1991recordedbytheworld'slargestcomputercompany--whichformorethanhalfacenturyhasrepresentedbothAmerica'stechnologicalleadershipanditsmarketingmightaroundtheworld--isoneofthelargestyearlylosseseverpostedbyaU.S.business.(Inadditiontotherecession)…IBM'spoorperformancealsoreflectsitsstruggletodealwithafundamentallychangedcomputermarket,onemovingawayfromthecompany'sstrongholdinlarge,centralizedmainframecomputersandtowardsmallerdesktopcomputers,anareawherenimblercompetitorshavestymiedthegiantfirm.InJuly,itannouncedastartlingalliancewithcompetitorAppleComputerInc.todevelopadvancedpersonalcomputersandsoftware.
Hefamouslyputthebrakesonaplan,whichwasalreadywellunderway,tobreakupthecompanyintoseveraloperatingunits.TherationalebehinditwastoleverageallofthepiecesofIBM–hardware,servicesandsoftware–todelivertop-to-bottomtechnologysolutions.Gerstnerwritesthathiscolleagueswere“unwillingorunabletoaccept”thatOS/2wasa“resoundingdefeat”that,despiteitstechnicalsuperiority,“wasdrainingtensofmillionsofdollars,absorbinghugechunksofseniormanagement’stime,andmakingamockeryofourimage.”Butevenworse,focusingonthedesktoprancountertoIBM’sviewofwherethetechworldwasheaded.Bytheendof1994,IBMceasednewdevelopmentofOS/2software.
Sources:http://articles.latimes.com/1992-01-18/news/mn-65_1_staff-reductionshttp://articles.latimes.com/1993-07-28/news/mn-17823_1_net-loss
Whatkillscompanies…andindustries?
Nogrowth
Newtech
Nochange
Deathisachoice.Itcanbe Graceful
Messy
Rebirth
Ashardasitis,itbeatsthealternative
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Pickthisone!
Companiesflailwhentheirindustriesfail–andeveryindustryeventuallydoes
Marketandtechnologyshiftsarecoming–chooselifenow
Deathcomesknockingforeveryone
Historically Tractorsreplacedhorses
Quartzwatchesreplacedmechanical
Eventhemightyfall Intellayoffs
Applesalesdecline
EverycompanyinF500facescrisis
Eventually… TeslawillbelikeOldsmobile
PeoplewillcomplainaboutthefoodonVirginGalactic
Butalotwillhappenbetweennowandthen.Likewhat?Wherearemarketandtechnologyforcesconverging?
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“When Swiss companies declined to make quartz devices, inexpensive Japanese watches
from companies like Seiko became popular around the world. The “quartz crisis” killed
off so many Swiss watchmakers that by the end of the 1970s, the number of workers in
the industry had shrunk to 30,000 from 90,000. Brands in existence for centuries
vanished in a puff of disruption.” - NY Times, June 3 2015
Transportationandfood–what’snext?
April1956.MalcomMcLeanshipped58containersinare4redWWIIoiltankerfromNewarktoHouston–thefirstintermodalshipment,nowaglobalstandard
April1973.FredSmith’steamsatatacardtableandsorted186packages,thenloadedthemonto14DassaultFalconjets–thedawnofFedEx,andglobalnext-daydelivery
April1994.JeffBezosreadthatthenumberofInternetuserswasgrowingat2,300%annually–sohegotagarageandsomeserversandstartedAmazon,astorewithglobalreach,infiniteselec4on,zeroinventory,andnostorefront
April2016.Abouteverytwentyyears,alogis4csrevolu4onbegins–whatmightthisonemean?
1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s 2020s
?
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Threat/opportunity:connectedcarsmeansfewercars
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Valuecreation
Valuedestruction
Compliance ProductInnovation
Connectivity Systeminnovation
Resourceproductivity
Sharedandselfdriving
Businessmodelinnovation
Lowemission
15%lessnavigation
errors
Carsofftheroad
(9-13fewerpersonalcars
foreachridesharecar)
Lesscars,lesserrorsandlowemissions
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Connected/autonomoustransportcoulddecimatetheautoindustry,reshapecities,andsavemillionsoflives
“Ifautonomousvehiclescandrive500%moredenselyinplatoons,andparkawayfrommainroads,maybeweneverneedtowidenroadsagain,buildoutparkingspaces,or
investinrailorbuses.”
-CityplanningparticipantinLux/SRIIntelligentTransportationworkshop
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Carmakershaveseenthethreatandareresponding
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Industriesfacingstrategiclifeordeathchoices:Transportationandlogistics
Google Uber Amazon
• PartneringwithHyundai• Earlyleadinself-driving
cars–gone?• LikeGlass,Nest,Boston
Robotics…
• PartneringwithVolvo/Geelyonself-drivingtaxis
• UberEats• UberCargo• UberBike(package
delivery)• Manypublictransitdeals• PartnershipwithUnited
• WorkingwithFordandFiatonself-drivingcars
• Kiva/robotics• Anticipatoryshipping,the
nextJITmanufacturing?• Dronedelivery• Boughtanairport• AlexaVUIeverywhere
strategy
Google’slaststandinIoT? Integratingeverymodeofgroundtransport
Wantstoreshapecommerciallogistics
AlsoApple,Tesla,SAIC,BAIC,Comma.ai…
Casualobservation:everyuniversityengineeringdepartmentnowseemstohaveaself-drivingcarproject
Implication:autonomywillbeubiquitousandcheap
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Threat/opportunity:streamingfoodlikemusic
Bigdata,predictiveanalytics,anticipatorylogistics,persuasivetechnologies,precisionnutrition…whodecideswhatIwanttoeat?
StreamingCPG–subscribetorazors,whynotfood?
Thestreamingmusicmodelcomestofood:willweevereatthesamemealtwice?
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Foodstorage:DoesthepantrygothewayoftheCDrack?
Foodprep/tools:What’sthenext-nextgadget,andwhoismakingit?
Foodandfamily:Doesthekitchenbecomethehomeworkshop?
Goodnewsforhumanandcorporatelongevity
Redwineisstillgoodforyou,maybe! Microbreweriesarestillontherise!
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LuxResearchInc.100FranklinStreet,8thFloorBoston,MA02110USAPhone:+16175025300Fax:+16175025301www.luxresearchinc.com
Thankyou
MarkBünger
VPofResearch
