Biotic Biotic Consequences of Consequences of Climate Change Climate Change

Raquibul AminRaquibul AminProgramme Coordinator Programme Coordinator

IUCN Bangladesh Country Office IUCN Bangladesh Country Office

Impact of Climate Change on Impact of Climate Change on Biodiversity and EcosystemBiodiversity and Ecosystem

PREDICTED IMPACTS ON PREDICTED IMPACTS ON SPECIES SPECIES

Species ranges and phenologies (e.g. early Species ranges and phenologies (e.g. early flowering) will shift flowering) will shift

Biotic communities will dissociate in space and Biotic communities will dissociate in space and time.time.

Those that are already critically endangered Those that are already critically endangered are likely to be driven to extinction are likely to be driven to extinction

Migratory species may be at particular risk Migratory species may be at particular risk since they require separate breeding, since they require separate breeding, wintering and migratory habitats wintering and migratory habitats

Frequency and intensity of pest attack will Frequency and intensity of pest attack will increaseincrease

Productivity of ecosystem will changeProductivity of ecosystem will change

SOME RECENT SOME RECENT OBSERVATIONS OBSERVATIONS

FROGSFROGS

The habitat of Golden The habitat of Golden Toad in Costa Rica moved Toad in Costa Rica moved to higher altitude to higher altitude

Climate change seems to making frogs Climate change seems to making frogs more vulnerable to fungal infection- more vulnerable to fungal infection-

Two third of 110 species of colorful Two third of 110 species of colorful harlequin frogs in South and Ccentral harlequin frogs in South and Ccentral America are affectedAmerica are affected

BUTTERFLYBUTTERFLY Non-migratory butterflies in Northern Non-migratory butterflies in Northern

Africa and Northern Europe shifted home Africa and Northern Europe shifted home range by 20 to 150 milesrange by 20 to 150 miles

PINON MOUSE PINON MOUSE The mouse moved 1000 to 3000 ft higher The mouse moved 1000 to 3000 ft higher

elevation over past century in elevation over past century in Southwestern USSouthwestern US

QUIVER TREEQUIVER TREE Started to die off in parts of their Started to die off in parts of their

traditional range in Southern Africa traditional range in Southern Africa

FormerreserveReserve

Rangelimit

Speciesrange

Futurereserve

Potentialrange limit

Formerrange limit

SOME CONSEQUENCES OF RANGE SHIFTS

After Peters (1992)

Current PAs will become unsuitable as Current PAs will become unsuitable as reservesreserves

SOME CONSEQUENCES OF RANGE SOME CONSEQUENCES OF RANGE SHIFTSSHIFTS

Habitat fragmentation will hinder Habitat fragmentation will hinder unassisted migrationunassisted migration

Species will behave individualistically, Species will behave individualistically, it will not be possible to maintain it will not be possible to maintain biotic communities in their current biotic communities in their current statestate

Weedy species will migrate fastest Weedy species will migrate fastest and capture vacated territoryand capture vacated territory

Native species can become invasive Native species can become invasive

Time

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Current thinking often emphasizes gradual changes.

After US Geological Survey (2005)

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However, abrupt climatic change can lead to abruptecosystem change.

After US Geological Survey (2005)

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Gradual climatic change may also trigger unexpected and abrupt ecosystem change (threshold response)

After US Geological Survey (2005)

ADDITIONAL DRIVERS

Others drivers will compound Others drivers will compound the climate change impact: the climate change impact:

Invasive speciesInvasive species Land-use changeLand-use change Overexploitation (socio-economic Overexploitation (socio-economic

driver) driver) Pollution Pollution

What will happen in What will happen in Bangladesh? Bangladesh?

IPCC scenario for IPCC scenario for Bangladesh Bangladesh

Major impacts will be Major impacts will be through through

Rise in temperature, Increased Rise in temperature, Increased and untimely rainfall and untimely rainfall

Sea level riseSea level rise Cyclones, Storm surgesCyclones, Storm surges Flood and DroughtFlood and Drought Water loggingWater logging Salinity intrusionSalinity intrusion

Resistance: ability to resist stresses.Resilience: ability to recover from stresses.

Managing for the unexpected will entail, at least in part,managing for ecosystem resistance and resilience

INTERVENTIONSINTERVENTIONS Restore ecosystems and rehabilitate Restore ecosystems and rehabilitate

endangered species endangered species Develop national management plans for control Develop national management plans for control

and eradication of invasive alien speciesand eradication of invasive alien species Moratorium on clearing forest Moratorium on clearing forest Introduction of salt tolerant speciesIntroduction of salt tolerant species Long term strategy and planning for water Long term strategy and planning for water

management in essentialmanagement in essential Long term monitoring and capacity building Long term monitoring and capacity building Appropriate research is needed to determine Appropriate research is needed to determine

and identify an acceptable substitute of plant and identify an acceptable substitute of plant speciesspecies

Review of Policies and Review of Policies and programprogram

Integrate biodiversity Integrate biodiversity conservation into the national conservation into the national development planning and development planning and processesprocesses

Promotion of synergies with Promotion of synergies with other MEAsother MEAs

Climate change is intrinsically linked Climate change is intrinsically linked to the well – being of ecosystems, in to the well – being of ecosystems, in terms of livelihood securities, terms of livelihood securities, biodiversity, forestry biodiversity, forestry

In the light of the uncertainties of In the light of the uncertainties of climate change, it is crucial to climate change, it is crucial to promote synergies amongst the promote synergies amongst the three Rio Conventions: UNFCCC, three Rio Conventions: UNFCCC, CBD and CCD CBD and CCD

THANK YOUTHANK YOU