biosystems and climate lecture no...

LARRY BELL

NATURAL OUTLOOKS:CLIMATE CHANGES, ENERGY ALTERNATIVES, TECHNOLOGY OPTIONS, CONSERVATION PRACTICES, AND OUR HUMAN FUTURE

A LECTURE SERIES

Larry Bell is Professor of Architecture and Endowed Professor of Space Architecture at the University of Houston where hedirects the Sasakawa International Center for Space Architecture (SICSA) and heads the Space Architecture GraduateProgram in the Gerald D. Hines College of Architecture. Professor Bell and his organization’s work have appeared innumerous popular magazine and media broadcast features in the US and abroad, including PBS, the History Channel andthe Discovery Channel.

Larry has authored dozens of technical conference papers and professional journal articles addressing a broad variety ofspace and terrestrial design and technology topics, and has co-founded several successful high-tech companies. Inaddition to NASA Headquarters achievement and recognition certificates, he has received two of the highest honorsawarded by the Federation of Astronautics and Cosmonautics of the former Soviet Union for his contributions tointernational space development, the Konstantin Tsiolkovsky Gold Medal and the Yuri Gagarin Diploma. His name wasplaced on the Russian rocket that launched the first astronaut crew to the International Space Station. He is an AssociateFellow of the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics (AIAA), and a Fellow of the Explorers Club.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

INTRODUCTION

World population growth, expansion ofcommerce, competition for energy,environmental concerns, and dwindlingfossil resources are prompting generalrecognition of a need to use availableresources more wisely. Diverse typesof organizations are working to do this.Many are exploring new operatingpolicies, conducting technology R&Dprograms, putting responsive plans intoaction, and are demonstratingsuccesses. Such initiatives are theright things to do, and often make goodpractical and economic sense as well.

Challenges of addressing ecosystemdamage, climate changes, fossil fueland freshwater depletion, and othercritical issues are extremely complexand daunting. Those who seek simplesolutions or reassurances thateverything will resolve itself are likely tobe disappointed. Yet while there are nopanaceas, dire predictions aboutimpacts of climate changes and thefutility of our abilities to adopt moreresourceful technologies and lifestylesare unduly pessimistic. Progress isbeing made on many crucial fronts.

If there is a positive side to urgent challengesfacing us, it must be a growing generalawareness that we are all responsible forsolutions. Progress in our recognition ofissues is being revealed throughinterdisciplinary activities involving combinedand coordinated efforts of paleontologists,climatologists, physicists, space andatmospheric researchers, and others usingever-improving methods and tools.Government, university and industryprograms are working across scientific andbusiness fields to develop new technologies,products and infrastructures. Architects,developers, investors and building ownersare emphasizing green design to conserveenergy and reduce costs.

A “Spaceship Earth” analogy is entirelyrealistic. Our natural environment cannot becompartmentalized into isolated divisionsdefined according to cultural, economic orpolitical priorities. Municipalities, states andnations are beginning to realize this fact, andare seeking, developing and implementingresponsive policies and initiatives. It hasbecome clear that focusing upon differences,competitive economic advantages andblame-placing will not serve long-terminterests of anyone. And while cooperationoften imposes difficulties that test patience,and goodwill, there is really no alternative.We are all in that tiny, fragile spacecrafttogether, depend upon the same life supportsystems, and share a vital mission.

INTRODUCTION

INTRODUCTION

This four-part series of lectures emphasizes how naturalsystems operate and connect together in intricate ways andover extreme ranges of scale and time as lessons we mustrecognize and apply in human endeavors.

• Recognizing that these phenomena are seamless andinterdependent can reveal ways our personal andcommunity connections to Nature and to our small planethome can be more resourceful:

- We can more fully appreciate that human systems are notexempt from natural laws which govern survival of all life.

- We can also become cognizant of ways that naturalprinciples and processes can be assisted through humandevices to extend resources we currently enjoy, and topreserve them for generations who follow.

Part 1, Biosystems and Climate:Important Factors that Influence All Life onOur Planet

Part 2, Energy Resources:Consumption, Supplies, and ImportantIssues

Part 3, Fuel and Power Technologies:Outputs, Delivery Efficiencies and NewDevelopments

Part 4, Conservation Practices:Water, Materials, Electrical Power and FuelResources.

Broad Lecture Topics

INTRODUCTION

Realizing Our True Human Nature

Nature’s incomprehensible scale, diversity, intricaciesand complex interconnections are impossible tograsp by intellect alone, leaving only spiritualconsciousness to embrace its full magnitude.

• From this vantage point we can perhaps be inspiredby the wonders about us, rather than intimidated bya sense of insignificance and futility:- Viewing ourselves as part of Nature’s majesty

can empower us to recognize that we arecreatures constructed of cosmic potentials.

- We can appreciate that while we are small,everything, including Earth’s Sun is tinycompared with the Universe, and that Naturemakes no size distinction in assigningimportance.

- Ultimately we may realize that in Nature’s grandmodel everything is truly part of everything,including you.

LARRY BELL

Eindhoven Tech. U. The Cavalier Daily Simon Ho Isreal EICI Filipe Fortes Trek Earth Trek EarthLangfel Designs Space Daily

BIOSYSTEMS & CLIMATE:IMPORTANT FACTORS THAT INFLUENCE ALL LIFE ON OUR PLANET

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We humans are integral parts of marvelous, complex,intricate and dynamic natural “systems” that areconstantly in a precarious state of balance.Unlike categories of fixed and bounded systems that

we often define to divide Nature into moreunderstandable parts and phenomena, true Nature isconnected and synergetic.- It is important to realize that when we focus

exclusively upon any of the parts in order to isolateand examine aspects that we are most interestedin, we risk missing a much larger picture that morefully reveals Nature’s true nature.

- We should also recognize that we and our systemsof living are parts of that picture, and thatconsequences of those systems are inseparablefrom the other parts which sustain us.

NATURAL FOUNDATIONS

Wmdstar

BIOSYSTEMS & CLIMATE

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Systems of Systems

Cosmic System

Weather System

Ecosystem

Solar System

Geo System

Bio-System

Common use of the term “system” to identifycertain interrelationships between naturalobjects and phenomena separate from otherscan sometimes imply boundaries of scale orfunction that obfuscates connectivity withinlarger frameworks.

The way we view any system dependsupon our perspective and focal range:- From a “big picture” perspective, we can

see the Sun both as part of a muchlarger Cosmic System, and also as thecentral energy source in our SolarSystem powered by fusion.

- Earth viewed from space (our GeoSystem) reveals weather systems oncloser inspection that are driven by theSun and Moon.

- From close up we witness livingecosystems influenced by weather andby tiny bio-systems that provide nutrientsthat support them.

NATURAL FOUNDATIONSBIOSYSTEMS & CLIMATE

NASA NASANASA NASAWash. Native Plant Soc. Associated Content

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Systems of Systems

Sun & Earth

Hydrocarbons

Microorganisms

Atom / Electrons

?

In Nature’s grand model, all parts areconnected and synergistic, with complexforces and processes acting in concert.Even the largest celestial bodies and

phenomena derive their essentialsubstance from the tiniest elements:- Processes that occur on the Sun drive

Earth’s weather and enable life to exist.

- All plants and creatures depend uponnutrients produced by microorganisms.

- Carbon and hydrogen constitute thebuilding blocks of all organic life.

- Interactions between electrons that bindatoms to form molecules create theenergy fuel of all chemistry.

NATURAL FOUNDATIONSBIOSYSTEMS & CLIMATE

Spirit Alembic Microposy UKJ. W. Adams Comb. School Soc. For Ind.. Archeology

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NATURAL FOUNDATIONS

Sun-Earth RelationshipsThe Sun

NASA

The Sun supports nearly all life on Earth anddrives our planet’s weather.Fusion processes convert hydrogen to

helium and produce photons that travel atthe speed of light, reaching Earth (a distanceof about 94 million miles) in approximately8.5 minutes:- Photons are mass-less, have no electric

charge, and do not spontaneously decay inempty space.

- Although some of the photons areabsorbed in Earth’s atmosphere, about1,000 watts per square meter are depositedon surfaces exposed to direct sunlight.

- Leafy plants use photons to convert CO2 tooxygen and reduced carbon compoundsthat support living organisms.

The Sun is composed entirely of gas and containsmore than 99.8% of the total mass in our SolarSystem (about 70% hydrogen and 28% helium).


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NATURAL FOUNDATIONS

Convection currents produced by solar heat cause winds, thermals, cyclones, thunderstorms, and at a larger scale, atmospheric circulation.

Sun-Driven Weather

Atmospheric Convection

Video Weather & WeatherstreetThe Sun is a primary influence onEarth’s climates and weatherconditions.Solar radiation that heats the

surface and water bodies istransferred to air and circulatedby convection, producing winds:

- As heated air layers expandand become less dense, theyare pushed upwards bybuoyancy.

- The rising air cools as itreaches higher altitudes in theatmosphere, becoming denser.

- Since the denser air can’t sinkthrough the rising air beneath it,it moves laterally until it reachesthe surface again and is drawnback into a rising column.


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NATURAL FOUNDATIONS

Solar heating and salinity differences produce convection effects in oceans that influence regional climates.

Solar Climate Influences

Carleton College Science Research Center

Oceanic convection driven by solar radiation andby differences in water salinity have importantinfluences upon continental climates, particularlyin coastal regions.Examples are the Gulf Stream which makes

northwest Europe much more temperate thanother regions at the same latitude, and theHawaiian Islands, where the climate is coolerdue to the California Current:- Equatorial water heated by solar radiation

tends to circulate towards the poles, whilepolar water heads towards the equator.

- “Thermoline convection” driven by differencesin salinity causes relatively warm saline waterto sink, while colder fresh water tends to riseand reverse heat transport.


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NATURAL FOUNDATIONS

Coriolis forces produced by the Earth’s rotationinfluence wind patterns that balanceatmospheric heat, and transfer moisture to aridregions that need it.

Coriolis Influences Upon Weather

NASAEarth’s rotation also influences wind andweather.Winds are comprised of air molecules that are

subject to Coriolis forces which cause air toturn as it flows:- Coriolis forces deflect wind flows to the right

in the Northern Hemisphere, and to the leftin the Southern Hemisphere.

- The Coriolis deflections contribute toformations of tropical cyclones that produceextremely strong winds, tornados, torrentialrain and huge waves.

- Cyclones that often cause great human andecological disasters also provide importantmechanisms to transport heat away from thetropics and maintain equilibrium in theEarth’s troposphere.

- Hurricanes in the northeastern Pacific supplymoisture to the southwestern US.


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NATURAL FOUNDATIONS

Sun/Moon-Driven Tides

Case Western University

Since distances between the Earth, Sun andMoon vary considerably throughout a yeardue to elliptical orbits, tide generation forcesare greatest when the Earth is closest insolar orbit (perihelion), and when the Moon isclosest in its Earth orbit (perigee).

The gravitational pull of the Sun and Moonproduce daily sea level changes that areessential to support marine and coastalecological systems.Although these gravitational forces act upon all

Earth surfaces, solid land areas remain intact,while water is lifted:- These forces produce two bulges in oceans,

one in the direction of the Moon, and one onthe opposite side of the Earth.

- Even though the Moon’s mass is 27 milliontimes smaller than the Sun’s, its closerproximity to Earth gives it a tide-generatingforce that is more than twice greater.

- High tides are produced in areas wherewater flows between the bulges, and lowtides (areas of depression) occur betweenbulges due to withdrawal of surging water.


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NATURAL FOUNDATIONS

Tidal Benefits

Birding America.

Tidal effects of the Sun and Moon providecritical mechanisms to support marine life andnumerous types of plants and animals thatreside in marshes and estuaries.Tidal circulation serves a variety of

essential functions:- Tides deliver suspended sediments

necessary to replace surface soils removedby runoff land erosion.

- Flooding tides enhance plant growth bydelivering oxygen-enriched water to marshsoils and removing toxic materials.

- Tidal waters are vehicles that carry plantnutrients onto marshlands during periods ofabundance, and transport excess nutrientsback to estuaries at other times.

- Exported nutrients support growth of single-celled phytoplankton that are the foundationof marine food chains.

Tides deliver vital nutrients to coastal ecosystemsand remove accumulated toxins that endanger livingorganisms that support food chains.


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NATURAL FOUNDATIONS

Most ecosystems on Earth are “solar powered”, depending upon food energy created by photosynthesis.

Solar-Powered Life Systems

Purves, et al, Life: the Science of Biology

Six molecules of water taken up through roots and leaves plus six molecules of CO2produce one molecule of sugar plus six molecules of O2.

Photosynthesis uses sunlight to remove CO2 (a greenhouse gas) from the air and convert it into oxygen, sugars, starches and high-energy carbohydrates that support life.

(6 H20 + 6 CO2 → C6H12O6 + 6 O2).

Bigelow Laboratory for Ocean Sciences


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NATURAL FOUNDATIONS

Photosynthesis Process

Shannan Muskopf• The process occurs through two complex

phases:

- In a first phase “light-dependentreaction” a pigment chlorophyll moleculeabsorbs light, and loses an electron inthe process.

- The released electron moves down atransport chain to produce high-energyNADPH and ATP molecules, and thechlorophyll molecule regains its electronby splitting water, releasing oxygen.

- In a second phase “dark reaction” anenzyme RuBisCO captures CO2 fromthe atmosphere and through a complexCalvin-Benson cycle releases 3-carbonsugars that combine to form glucose.


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NATURAL FOUNDATIONS

Solar-Powered Resources

Photosynthesis Products

Air Purification

Fossil Fuels

Cleaner Fuels

Petrochemicals

Larry Bell

Solar-powered photosynthesis is arguably themost important biological process on Earth.• Photosynthesis converts CO2 and water into

breathable oxygen to help ameliorategreenhouse gas produced by combustion,creating carbohydrates that we use for manyother purposes as additional by-products:

- One of the carbohydrates is cellulose thatcan be converted to sugar and fermentedinto ethanol (grain alcohol) for direct useas automotive fuel and as a gasolineadditive to reduce pollutant emissions.

- Ethanol can be readily converted toethylene, an important feedstock forpetrochemicals.

- Carbon “fixed” through photosynthesis inancient times created the biomass that isthe source of fossil fuels we use today.


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NATURAL FOUNDATIONS

Solar-Powered Marine Phototrophs

Bigelow Laboratory for Ocean Sciences.

In addition to higher plants, many types ofmicroscopic organisms (“phototrophs”) usephotosynthesis to create essential food energy inmarine environments.• Despite their small size, these algae and

cyanobacteria are vital to our planet’s ecologicalsurvival because they provide the base of themarine food web:- Each level of a food chain is called a “tropic” or

“feeding level” that classifies organisms as either “primary producers” or “consumers”.

- Phototrophs are primary producers because they convert inorganic materials to organic forms that “heterotrophs” depend upon.

- Heterotrophs include carnivores, omnivores, vegetarians and decomposers.


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NATURAL FOUNDATIONS

Solar-Powered Marine Life

Marine Food WebsMarine Food Chains

Bigelow Laboratory for Ocean Sciences Bigelow Laboratory for Ocean Sciences


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EARTH DYNAMICS

The Earth Viewed as Systems

It’s About Time

The Earth is often characterized as beingcomprised of four general types ofconnected zones or “spheres”.

• The atmosphere provides a protectivegaseous blanket:

- It contains oxygen, nitrogen and carbondioxide essential for life, and providesweather.

• The geosphere consists of Earth’s solidmaterial and inner core:- It contains minerals and compounds that

comprise organic and inorganicmaterials.

- About 97% is contained in oceans.• The biosphere contains all living systems:

- This includes organisms ranging fromviruses to humans that exist in thegeosphere and hydrosphere.


- This includes all of Earth’s water andwater vapor.

• The hydrosphere (part of the biosphereand atmosphere):

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EARTH DYNAMICS

Connections and Synergies

Larry Bell

Viewed as systems within a larger system, thespheres of influence interact in dynamic andcomplex ways to maintain the equilibriumnecessary to sustain life.• The atmosphere serves as a large global

transport system:- It circulates oxygen, water, nitrogen, carbon

dioxide and heat among regions.

• The geosphere affords a foundation for life:

- It provides inorganic substances to supportorganic chemistry, geothermal heat, and aCO2 containment service.

• The hydrosphere supports marine life and landcreatures that depend upon it:- It also influences weather, provides water for

precipitation and cooling, and absorbs CO2from the atmosphere.

• The biosphere exchanges life support productsand biowastes with other spheres:- It is the source of biomass fuels and nutrients,

and converts CO2 into O2 and back again.


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EARTH DYNAMICS

Atmospheric Zones

Larry Bell

The atmosphere is also characterized as beingcomprised of different zones, or “spheres”.

• The thermosphere is the uppermost regionwhere solar radiation strips off (ionizes)electrons from atoms in the ionosphere below.(Temperatures increase with altitude herebecause the atoms don’t absorb solarradiation).

• The ionosphere is a layer that traps radiosignals and allows them to travel around theworld (unless disturbed by solar storms thatdisrupt communications).

• The mesosphere has no strong solar radiationabsorbers, causing temperatures to decreasewith altitude.

• The stratosphere is broken into differentmaterials (stratified), including ozone whichabsorbs solar radiation so that temperaturesincrease with altitude.

• The troposphere (lowest level) is whereconvection occurs to produce weather, andtemperatures increase with altitude.


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EARTH DYNAMICS

The Nitrogen Cycle

Windows to the Universe, UCARNitrogen comprises about 78% of theatmosphere and cycles slowly through thebiosphere.• Although very little nitrogen is present on land

or in the oceans, it is essential to life as a keyelement in proteins and DNA:- Nitrogen does not chemically react very

readily with other substances becauseeach molecule is made of two atoms thatare tightly bound together.

- Large amounts of energy are required tobreak the atomic bonds, although this canoccur through lightning and fires.

- Fortunately, an assortment of bacterialspecies specialize in converting nitrogenfrom the air into usable forms, and alsorelease nitrogen from organic material backinto the atmosphere.


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EARTH DYNAMICS

The Water Cycle

US Geological Survey

Water in liquid and vapor form cyclescontinuously through the geosphere,hydrosphere, atmosphere and biosphere.• Water molecules comprise the primary

substance of all higher plants andanimals:

- It is transferred between thehydrosphere and biosphere byevaporation and precipitation, releasingheat energy in the process.

- In the air, water vapor circulates andcondenses to form clouds, and rain thatfalls back to the surface.

- Plants and animals use and reusewater, and release the vapor back intothe air.

- Some water leaches into undergroundaquifers, releasing suspended particlesin the filtering process.


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EARTH DYNAMICS

Oxygen-Ozone Cycles

Radiation-powered reactions in the stratosphere continuously convert oxygen molecules to ozone, which eventually reforms back to oxygen.

Google AnswersOxygen comprises about 21% of theatmosphere.• Although oxygen is very reactive

and rapidly combines with otherelements and “disappears”,relatively stable concentrations arereplaced through photosynthesisand plant respiration:

- Some oxygen is lofted into upperreaches of the atmosphere (thestratosphere) where a series ofreactions powered by solarradiation convert it into ozone (O3).

- The ozone beneficially serves toabsorb biologically-damagingultraviolet (UV) radiation, reducingthe amount that reaches theEarth’s surface to a tiny fraction.

- Ozone molecules eventually breakapart to reform into O2, whichcirculates again through theatmosphere to repeat the cycle.


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EARTH DYNAMICS

Steady State Thermal Balance

Online Biology Book. Estrella Mountain Community CollegeThe Earth’s thermal balance is in asteady state when the energy storedin the atmosphere and oceansequals the incident solar radiationradiated back to space.• This radiation includes reflected

solar radiation and emitted thermalinfrared radiation (IR):- The Earth receives about 30% of

the incident solar radiation flux,and the remaining 70% isabsorbed, warms the land,atmosphere and oceans andpowers life on the planet.

- Eventually the absorbed incidentenergy is radiated to space as IRphotons.

- This thermal (IR) radiation increases with rising temperatures.


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EARTH DYNAMICS

Atmosphere Transparency vs. Altitude and Incoming Radiation Wavelengths

Northern Arizona University

The amount of thermal radiation released tospace is influenced by the atmospheric opacityand temperature.• These factors determine the height from

which most photons are emitted to escape:

- If the atmosphere is more opaque, anescaping photon must go higher in order to“see out” to space in IR.

- Since IR emission is influenced bytemperature of the atmosphere, thetemperature will influence the emissionlevel required to balance the absorbedsolar flux.

- The temperature of the atmospheregenerally decreases with height above thesurface at the rate of about 15.7°F per mile(6.5°C per kilometer) up to the stratosphere(6.2 miles - 9.3 miles [10km - 15kmaltitude.])


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EARTH DYNAMICS

The “Greenhouse Effect”

Northern Arizona University

Since the atmosphere emits IR both upwardsand downwards, the temperature balancebetween energy radiated to space must beequal to the direct incident radiationabsorbed plus the downward IR flux.• The atmosphere is relatively transparent to

the direct incident radiation in the visiblerange, but strongly absorbs thermal IRwavelengths emitted by the surface andatmosphere:

- Most IR escaping to space is emitted fromthe upper atmosphere (not the surface).

- Accordingly, most IR photons emitted bythe surface are absorbed by theatmosphere and do not escape.

- A large part of the thermal energy transferto the atmosphere occurs throughconvection (sensible heat transport) andevaporative condensation of water vapor(latent heat transfer).


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EARTH DYNAMICS

Greenhouse Mechanisms

Global Warming Art.

Increases in greenhouse gases, CO2 inparticular, reduce the amount of IR energyemitted to space, causing surfacetemperatures to rise over time.

• Dominant infrared-absorbing gases inEarth’s atmosphere are water vapor,carbon dioxide and ozone:

- Clouds are very important IR absorbers,and become more prominent throughevaporation as surface watertemperatures increase.

- CO2 is a linear molecule which becomes“floppy” and easily excited by IR so thatit bends with carbon in the middle,moving one way, and oxygen on theends moving the other to vibrate andabsorb IR energy.

- It is estimated that water vapor maycontribute about 36% of the totalabsorbing effect, and CO2 somewherebetween 4% - 12%.


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EARTH DYNAMICS

CO2 from Ocean Carbonate

Hanues Grobe, et al. Inst.for Polar and Marine Research

Atmospheric CO2 derives from many naturalsources, including volcanoes, ocean sediments,combustion of organic matter and fossil fuels,respiration of living aerobic organisms, and cellularrespiration of microorganisms.• Records from polar ice cores and ocean

sediments indicate that atmospheric CO2concentrations have naturally fluctuated greatlythroughout the Earth’s history, reaching levelshigher than those observed in recent decades:

- Volcanic activity was essential to create awarm, stable climate essential for life when theEarth was young, but now releases only about1% of the amount produced by humanactivities.

- Levels rise and fall on a seasonal basis as aresult of plant growth cycles, warming andcooling changes that influence oceanabsorption rates and other factors.

- The US National Oceanographic andAtmospheric Administration estimates thatabout 97% of annual atmospheric CO2 comesfrom natural sources, and about 3% fromhuman activities.


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EARTH DYNAMICS

Atmospheric CO2 Sources

NASACarbon, typically in the form of CO2, cyclesbetween “reservoirs” provided by the atmosphere,biosphere, hydrosphere and geosphere.

• Natural reservoirs can function either as CO2sources or sinks:

- Atmospheric carbon is primarily CO2 (overallonly about 0.04% on a molecular basis),although other gases containing carbon arepresent in even smaller amounts (e.g. methaneand artificial chlorofluroro-carbons [CFCs]).

- CO2 is dissolved at ocean surfaces, particularlyin polar regions where the water is cold.

- Aerobic respiration by plants and animalsbreaks down glucose into CO2 and water, andphotosynthesis reverses the process.

- Limestone, marble and chalk mainly comprisedof calcium carbonate are eroded by oceanwater to produce CO2 and carbonic acid.

CO2 is constantly being released into the atmosphere andhydrosphere from hydraulic erosion of limestone deposits,biomass decomposition, fossil fuel combustion and othersources.


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EARTH DYNAMICS

While it is evident that atmospheric CO2levels have increased about 110 ppm froma pre-Industrial Revolution level of 280 ppmto about 360-380 ppm now, the actualinfluences of this trend upon globalwarming or its future consequences are notnearly as clear.• Although CO2 represents only a very tiny

amount of total atmospheric gas content(less than 4/100ths of 1% which is muchlower than water vapor per volume andweight), steady increases over the past 50years are raising international concerns:

- Much or most of this increase is generallyattributed to human causes, yet computermodels cannot yet reliably predict climatechange impacts.

- Key areas of uncertainty include heatingand cooling influences of clouds upon theatmosphere, roles played by oceans, andland influences such as deforestation,agriculture, and seasonal changes. Atmospheric CO2 Influences

Atmospheric CO2 is produced by a variety of human andnatural sources, with much ultimately absorbed by theatmosphere, oceans, and vegetation. Many researchersbelieve that influences upon Earth temperature changesmay be well within natural climate variability.

Estimated Human Contributions

US Geological Survey


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EARTH DYNAMICS

Water Vapor as a Greenhouse Gas

Water vapor in combination with CO2 and othergreenhouse gases have feedback influencesthat compound warming effects.• Since the concentration of a greenhouse gas

in the atmosphere is a function oftemperature, a feedback produced by anothergreenhouse gas can increase thetemperature, to in turn increase theconcentration of the original gas.

- Water vapor is known to experience a“positive” feedback in response to increasesin CO2 concentrations

- While most of the atmospheric CO2 isreleased from natural sources, even relativelysmall increases resulting from humanactivities may have substantial impacts.

Water vapor in the atmosphere is known to act as agreenhouse gas that contributes to Earth warming.As surface temperatures rise, more water fromoceans evaporates, adding to atmospheric vaporlevels (A “positive water feedback”). Research basedupon data from NASA’s Upper AtmosphereResearch Satellite (UARS) has confirmed this effect,but suggests that the impacts may not be as largeas previous climate change models have assumed.

NASA


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EARTH DYNAMICS

Climate “forcing” factors include a variety ofcombined natural and human influences thatimpact Earth’s atmospheric chemistry andsurface heat balance.• Although much attention has been directed

to biogeochemical effects of CO2, someother factors have comparable and evengreater effects:

- Atmospheric water vapor may account forabout 70% of all greenhouse effect(compared with somewhere between4.2%-8.4% for CO2), absorbing solarinfrared over much of the samewavelength bands as CO2, and even more.

- While clouds are comprised mostly ofwater droplets (not greenhouse gases)they absorb about one-fifth of the long-wave radiation from Earth, although theirinfluences upon climate mechanisms arenot fully understood. Water Vapor Influences

Although water vapor is a primary greenhouse gas, upperatmosphere satellite measurements at a 6-9 mile (9.5-14km) altitude show less positive feedback correlationbetween vapor concentration and Earth warming thanprevious computer models predicted.

Separate satellite measurements of global surface andocean precipitation between 1979-2004 also revealvirtually no net vapor concentration increases due toclimate warming evaporation effects.

NASA Goddard

Satellite Water Vapor Imaging


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EARTH DYNAMICS

Aerosols include atmospheric dust particlesand sulfate droplets released from naturalsources such as volcanoes, sea spray andland wind erosion in combination with humanactivities such as fossil burning from industryand forest clearing for agriculture.• Current models for distinguishing

concentrations from natural vs. humansources, or assessing climate effects, areunreliable and often contradictory due toissue and calculation complexities:

- It is generally believed that unlikegreenhouse gases, sulfate aerosols tend tocause cooling rather than heating byscattering radiation at the top of theatmosphere. This enhances reflectivity thatreduces cloud lifetimes by increasing thenumber of droplet collisions needed toproduce rain.

- Dust particles do this to some extent, butalso absorb some sunlight to producewarming effects. Estimated Aerosol / Greenhouse Influences

Aerosols tend to create cooling rather than warmingeffects. They remain in the atmosphere for only daysor weeks before they fall out or are washed out byrain. These short periods do not allow enough time formixing to occur that would enable global transportassociated with greenhouse gases.

Estimated Mean Radiative Forcing and Level of Scientific Understanding

US Climate Change Science Program


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EARTH DYNAMICS

Human influences upon land uses andvegetation can also have a variety of complexlinks to weather and climate mechanisms,including surface-atmosphere greenhouse gasexchanges, reflected and absorbed radiationand thermal balances, and wind interactionswith surface topologies.

• Growth of agriculture has had particularlysignificant land use influences over much ofthe world:

- Although global impacts are not wellunderstood, replacement of dark forests withcroplands is known to affect local conditions,increasing surface albedo levels to coolsome regions, while denying shade to otherheavily-irradiated areas to raise groundtemperatures.

- Large-scale crop irrigation can also producemeasurable regional cooling effects, as hasbeen demonstrated in the Great Plains ofNorth America since 1945. Land Use Influences

Human land use influences upon weather and climate areassociated with a number of factors, including growth offarming and industry, population size and distribution, andtypes of technologies used in each region. The combinedeffects of these impacts can, in turn, affect the suitability ofthe land and land cover for desired future uses.


Exec. Action Team Julian PyeUCAR U. of Missouri

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EARTH DYNAMICS

Simple theories about causes andconsequences of climate change fail torecognize that these phenomena involve acomplex interplay of overlapping cycles andevents that sometimes cancel each other out.• Extreme modeling difficulties and

fluctuations that occur naturally often castlegitimate doubts about trend predictionsbased upon a few years or decades oflimited data and incomplete understandingof interrelationships:

- Urgent concerns about human impacts uponthese influences and outcomes arecertainly legitimate and essential, both as amoral obligation to our planet and as apractical matter of survival.

- The challenge is to avoid premature, faultyconclusions and policies driven byinadequate models, unsubstantiatedhypotheses, and alarmist observationsbased upon both. Climate and Temperature Influences

Climate and temperature changes are influenced by manyhighly interactive forcing factors that are not well understood asa basis for developing accurate or reliable models.

Solcomhouse


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CLIMATE CYCLES

Important issues and controversiesconcerning human impacts upon climaterevolve around questions regardingwhich observed trends and fluctuationsare natural or “normal”.• In regard to global temperatures it can

be argued that normal can becharacterized by ice ages that havedominated Earth’s history:

- Except during brief interglacial periods,our planet’s climate has beeninvariably glacial, with more than halfof the surface covered with ice andarid deserts.

- Present global warming trends beganabout 18,000 years ago near the endof the Pleistocene Ice Age when muchof North America, Europe and Asiabegan to thaw out from a very longdeep freeze.

Earth has been relatively ice-free even at high latitudes, onlyduring relatively short interglacial periods such as our currentone. From a historic perspective our climate is, without doubt,“abnormally warm”.

Australian Academy of Science

Past and Present Northern Hemisphere Ice Coverage


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• By about 12,000 – 15,000 years ago the Earth had warmed sufficiently to halt the advance of glaciers and cause sea levels to rise.

• About 8,000 years ago a land bridge across the Bering Strait became submerged, cutting off the migration of people and animals to North America, ultimately rising about 300 feet.

• Since the last Ice Age Earth’s temperature has risen about 16°F, and plant life returned to regions previously covered by ice.

• Temperatures may have continued to rise about 1 degree over the past 200 years, although the precise amount is debated according to measurement methods used.

The average temperature of the Earth has been gradually increasing on a fairly constant basis over the past 18,000 years or so following the last 100,000 year-long Ice Age when much of North America lie buried under glaciers:

Earth has been relatively ice-free, even at high latitudes, only during relatively short interglacial periods such as our current one. From a historic perspective, our climate is without doubt “abnormally warm”.

The Last Ice Age, About 16,000 BC

Wm. Robert Johnston

CLIMATE CYCLESBIOSYSTEMS & CLIMATE

35No one can really predict how long our currentinterglacial period will last before the nextglacial period arrives, and if the term “ice age”is used to refer to a long generally cool intervalwhen glaciers advance and retreat, some canargue that we are still in one today.• Although a “typical” interglacial may be

estimated to last about 12,000 years, this isdifficult to substantiate from ice core records,and our current one may be more analogousto a previous interglacial estimated to existfor 28,000 years:

- The Earth has seen at least four major iceages, with many glaciation cycles ofadvancing and retreating ice sheets withinand between them.

- These warming and cooling periods seem tooccur in small-scale cycles of about 40years, within larger-scale 400 year cyclessuch as the Little Ice Age, within still larger20,000 year cycles, and so on. Glacial and Interglacial Cycles

Over more than the past 400,000 years of Earth’s history,ice ages have occurred at regular intervals of about100,000 years each. These cycles have witness changeswhen huge glaciers have destroyed entire regionalecosystems and altered topographical surface features.

Maria Koshland Museum of the National Academy of Sciences


36

Except for relatively brief interglacial episodessuch as the “Eemian” that peaked about 125,000years ago and our present one, much of theEarth’s surface has been under a siege of iceover most of the past 160,000 years.• Occurrences and impacts of these and other

glacial periods has been verified by three typesof methods:

- Geological studies reveal evidence in the form ofrock scouring and scratching, glacial moraines,valley cutting and other surface effects.

- Chemical analysis of isotope variations insedimentary rocks, ocean sediment and icecores reveal biological changes and extinctions.

- Paleontological surveys of fossil distributionsindicate when and where cold-adaptedorganisms spread into higher latitudes, andothers requiring warmer conditions becameextinct or migrated into lower latitudes. Early Climate Changes (Past 150,000 Years)

NASA Goddard


37Interglacial periods, such as ours, appear tobe characterized by great climate variability.• Contemporary observations reveal constant

fluctuations from month-to-month, season-to-season, year-to-year, decade-to-decade,and century-to-century:

- The 19th century ended the well-documented, centuries-long Little Ice Agethat brought “abnormally cold” temperaturesto many parts of the world, and may havebiased observations commencing duringthe second half of that century as “normal”,and the 20th century as “abnormally warm”.

- Today’s climate is generally comparable tothat of the Medieval Warm Period (believedto extend from the 9th-13th centuries AD)which preceded the Little Ice Age.

- Dramatic, but very temporary changes werealso witnessed as influences of tropicalPacific conditions that produced warmingduring El Niño in 1997-98, followed bycooling during La Niña. Northern Hemisphere Climate Shifts

The Northern Hemisphere has experienced significantclimate shifts during the past 2,000 years, ranging from theMedieval Warm Period, the Little Ice Age which followed,and the warm period we are currently experiencing.

NOAA Climate Data Center


38Ironically, much research suggests that theNorthern Hemisphere of our planet is ultimatelyheading towards a protracted new glacial age.• During the past million years Earth has

experienced a major ice age about every100,000 years, interrupted briefly by warmer“interglacial” periods like our current RecentHolocene that last about 12,000 years or so:

- About 21,000 years ago, North America andnorthern Europe were covered by ice sheetsestimated to be about 1.9 miles (3km) thick.

- More recently, about 6,000 years ago, a thawcaused ice sheets to retreat to Greenland andAntarctica and stream into the sea.

- Although the last thousand years have beengenerally mild, substantial fluctuations haveoccurred, such as the “Little Ice Age” whichbrought bitterly cold weather to many parts ofthe world during the 17th and 18th centuries.

Little Ice Age Cooling Paradox

Rather than continued global warming, our planetmay quite likely be near the end of a relatively shortperiod between major ice ages. Periods such asthese are characterized by abrupt, vacillating, andsometimes extreme climate changes, ranging fromcold to hot, and wet to dry. An example during thispresent interglacial occurred in the NorthernHemisphere between the 16th and 19th centuries.

Scene inspired by the harsh winter of 1608 in The Netherlands during the Little Ice Age

Hendrick Avercamp


39If Earth climate patterns hold true to recordedschedules, a predicted ice age may present evenmore serious adaptation challenges than globalwarming, creating both food and energy shortages.• Results of the Little Ice Age (not a real glacial ice

age) can offer some examples of suchconsequences:

- In 1250, Atlantic pack ice began to grow; warmsummers stopped being dependable in NorthernEurope in 1300; torrential rains followed, andthe Great Famine of 1315-1317 required croppractices to be altered in order to adapt toshortened, unreliable growing seasons.

- Later, in the mid-17th century, glaciers in theSwiss Alps advanced to gradually engulf farmsand villages; the Thames River and canals ofThe Netherlands froze over (as did New YorkHarbor by 1780); and sea ice closed shippingharbors in Iceland.

- The climate began to warm again beginning inabout 1850 to more recent conditions. Earth Climate Changes (Past 2,000 Years)

Estimates of temperature changes differ based uponvarious studies and methodologies used.

Robert A Rhonde, Global Warming Art

*

Africa Sediment CoresVostok Antarc. Ice Cores

Kilimanjaro Ice CoresGreenland Ice Cores

N. Atlantic Sediment CoresEuropean Pollen DistributionCentral Antarctic Ice CoresW. Trop. Pac. Sed. Cores


40

CLIMATE INFLUENCES

Analyses of ocean sediment cores drilled offthe African coast indicate that climate shiftsmay have dramatically influenced the courseof human evolution.• These recent studies reveal occurrences of

three major climate cycles that coincidewith developments evident in fossil records:

- Brief, oscillating warm/wet and cold/dryclimate cycles about 2.8 million years agobecame progressively colder and longer,killing off fruit trees, rainforests andspecies that depended upon them, whilegrassland species thrived.

- After that period Australopithecus Afarensis(known as “Lucy”) evolved and divided intoat least two separate lineages, the genusParanthropus and genus Homo, and thefirst stone tools appeared. Influences on Human Evolution

Another period of colder, drier African cycles about 1.7million years ago caused Homo Habilus to die out, and alarger-brained Homo Erectus first appeared along withmore sophisticated tools used by our human ancestors.About 1 million years ago when cold, dry periods againbecame extreme, the genus Paranthropus became extinct,and Homo Erectus migrated from Africa to eventuallyevolve into modern humans, the Homo Sapiens.

Lucy Homo Erectus Homo SapienAbout 2.8 Million

Years AgoAbout 1.7 Million

Years AgoAbout 130,000

Years Ago

Content Answers Archaeology Info Michigan State U.


41

CLIMATE INFLUENCES

Although causes of major glacialevents are not confidently understood,changes in Earth’s orbit are oftenconsidered to be important factors.• Variations in the shape (or

eccentricity) of Earth’s orbit aroundthe Sun (called “Milankovitch”cycles) and in the planet’s tilt axisboth affect the amount of sunlightreceived on the surface, influencingperiods of warming and cooling:

- Tilt is usually considered to be themost important of these in terms ofglacial and interglacial periods.

- Distance changes as Earthprocesses elliptically around theSun are expected to havecontributing effects, particularly withregard to climate shifts within aninterglacial period. Influences of Earth’s Orbit

Changes in the Earth’s orbit eccentricity and its axis tilt anglecan produce changes over thousands of years. Its axis isoffset from the perpendicular by an angle that “wobbles” from aminimum of 22.5° to a maximum of 24° over about a 40,000-year cycle. It is currently tilted at 23.5°. Approximate 100,000-year dominant patterns of glacial periods roughly correspondwith both types of changes.

University Corporation for Atmospheric Research


42

CLIMATE INFLUENCES

Other naturally-occurring conditions are alsotheoretically linked to major climate changes.• Key among these are variations in solar

outputs, tectonic plate movements andevents that alter Earth’s atmosphere:

- Changes inside the Sun over time affectenergy that reaches the Earth’s surface,causing either warming or cooling. (NASAresearch indicates that this may have beena factor during the Little Ice Age.)

- Migrations of Earth’s tectonic plates overlong time scales may have influences. (Iceages seem often to begin when continentsare in positions that obstruct warm waterflow from the equator to the poles, causingice sheets to form.)

- Volcanoes and oceans release greenhousegases that can produce warming effects,and large meteorite strikes release dustthat block sunlight (a cause cited fordinosaur extinctions).

Other Potential Influences

The Sun’s output isestimated to increase about10% each billion years, andsunspots produce short-term effects.

A continent at the top of apole (as Antarctica ispresently) can block warmwater flow.

Volcanoes produce dust andaerosols that block sunlight,and also release warminggreenhouse gases.

Dust ejected by large meteorstrikes may have blocked sunlightand cooled some regionalenvironments in the past.


NASA NASAIsaac Newton Group Orbit @ Home

43

CLIMATE INFLUENCES

Geological evidence shows that over thepast 400,000 years CO2 levels andtemperatures have greatly fluctuated atregular intervals, with temperature risespreceding CO2 increases.• CO2 levels today are similar to the

Eemian interglacial period that occurredbetween 120,000-140,000 years agowhich was followed by a full-fledged iceage immediately afterwards:

- Atmospheric CO2 has been risingsteadily since about 18,000 years agowhen Earth began to warm its way outof the Pleistocene ice age that coveredmuch of North America, Europe andAsia with glaciers.

- Records indicate that CO2 levels fall atthe start of ice ages when more of thegas is absorbed by the colder oceans,and levels rise during glacial retreatswhen the processes reverse.

Correlations with Atmospheric Dust and CO2 Levels

Core samples taken from Vostok ice show directcorrelations between CO2, temperatures, and dust overthe last 400,000 years. Warmer global temperaturesrelease higher CO2 levels from oceans, events that maybe triggered by Earth’s orbit changes and/or other causes.

Petit et al. Nature, 1999


44

CLIMATE INFLUENCES

Influences of atmospheric CO2 concentrationsupon climate change and human-inducedenhancements in particular, are issues ofcontinued uncertainty and controversy.• Although CO2 levels have generally been

observed to increase during warm periodsand fall with colder temperatures, it is notclear which condition causes the other:

- Atmospheric CO2 measurements at remoteNorthern Hemisphere sites have shownnearly linear increases of about 1.4 ppm /year since 1972, a rate seeminglyunaffected by a large 45% increase in fossilfuel combustion emissions between 1972(4.4Gt) and 1995 (6.4Gt).

- Previous climate shifts between theMedieval Warm Period and Little Ice Agealso raise questions, having occurred longbefore the Industrial Revolution or inventionof the internal combustion engine.

Global CO2 Fossil Combustion Emissions vs. Atmospheric Concentrations (billions of tons of carbon / year)

On average, only about half of CO2 emissionsreleased by fossil fuel combustion remain in theatmosphere, with inter-annual fluctuations due tovariations in natural sources and sinks.

NOAA Earth System Research Lab


45

CLIMATE INFLUENCES

At least one theory suggests that globalwarming may actually trigger a mini-ice age.• This possibility is supported by the

appearance over the past 30 years of hugefreshwater “rivers” in the salty North Atlantic,along with a recent drop of salinity in theLabrador Sea between Canada andGreenland adjoining the Atlantic:

- It is suspected that these events may havebeen caused by melting Arctic ice thatmight subvert northern movement of heat-laden tropical Gulf Stream waters.

- Instead of transferring heat to eastwardwinds that warm Europe in winter and thensinking as it cools and becomes denser, theNorth Atlantic fills with fresh water that isless dense and doesn’t sink, remaining ontop of the ocean like a big thermal blanket Possible Mini-Ice Age Warming Trigger

Terrence Joyce who chairs the Woods Hole PhysicalOceanographic Department in Cape Code,Massachusetts believes that freshwater infiltration intothe North Atlantic from melting Arctic ice could shut downthermoline circulation that powers heat transfer from thetropics to Europe in winter. Such a shutdown mightpossibly precipitate a sudden drop in North Atlantic watertemperatures and bring colder temperatures to landmasses on both sides of the ocean.

Thermoline Circulation in the North Atlantic

W Broecker Columbia University


46

CLIMATE INFLUENCES

Broad alarm during the mid-1980s aboutindications of global cooling portending thearrival of a new ice age reversed to predictionsof cataclysmic warming threats by the laterpart of that century.• The existence, magnitude and causes of this

potential threat are subjects of contentiousscientific and public policy debate:

- Measurements taken after about 1940 didseem to indicate a cooling trend, althoughdeclines slowed to halt in the late 1970s.

- Observations since the 1980s have recordedslow but steady increases in global near-surface temperatures in combination withrising amounts of atmospheric CO2.

- Atmospheric balloon and satellite instrumentmeasurements since 1979 have seemed toindicate smaller temperature increases thanground stations, although differences appearrelatively minor and uncertain. Temperature Measurement Process Arguments

Larry Bell


47

CLIMATE INFLUENCES

There appears to be a strong consensusamong climatological experts that globalwarming is in fact occurring, and many, but notall, agree that human activities are animportant contributing factor.• An Intergovernmental Panel on Climate

Change (IPCC) established in 1988 by twoUnited Nations organizations, the WorldMeterological Organization (WMO) and theUN Environmental Program (UNEP)supported global warming assertions in a2001 summary report:

- After much debate, the IPCC concluded that“In the light of new evidence, and havingtaken into account the remaininguncertainties, most of the observed warmingover the past 50 years is likely to have beendue to increases in greenhouse gasconcentrations.”

- The Panel also concluded that they expecthuman activities to continue to changeatmospheric composition throughout thiscentury.

Surface ground stations have recorded temperatureincreases of about +0.11°F (+0.06°C) / decade and +0.31°F(+0.17°C) / decade since 1979, while Remote SensingSystems (RSS) taken by the U of Alabama Huntsville since1979 show increases of about +0.063°F (+0.035°C) / decade.Removing RSS measurements of the lower troposphere onlyto eliminate possible stratospheric cooling effects, the surfaceand atmospheric measurements may be closer.

Rober A. Rohde, Global Warming Art


48

CLIMATE INFLUENCES

In addition to projecting continued averageglobal temperature increases, the IPCCalso predicted that sea levels will rise“under all scenarios”.• Given that rising sea levels are principally

associated with anticipated Arctic andAntarctic ice melts, measurements of snowaccumulations in Antarctica may offer analternative picture:

- Satellite altimeter measurements madebetween 1992-2003 indicate, on average,the elevation of about 3.2 million squaremiles (8.5 million square kilometers) ofthe Antarctic interior has experienced anet snow gain of about 38.-52 billiontons/year, potentially enough to slightlylower the surrounding sea level.

- These observed snowfall increasescovering about 70% of the total ice sheetarea are likely to be linked to warming ofsouthern oceans from either natural orhuman-influenced causes.

Snow Accumulation in the Antarctic Interior

Rate of Elevation Change (cm / year) from 1992 – 2003Determined by Satellite Altimeter Measurements (fromDavis, et al., 2005).

World Climate Report


49

CLIMATE INFLUENCES

European Space Agency satellite altimetermeasurements of the Greenland Ice Sheetsince 1992 record recent changes similar tothose observed in Antarctica, with thicknessgrowth in higher interior areas, and thinning atcoastal margins.• While total mass balance gains or losses are

yet unknown, spatial averaging indicates a netincrease of 2.1 in (5.4cm) per year, withthickness increases of about 2.5 in (6.4cm)per year in interior areas above 4,900 feet(1,500 meters), and 0.79 in (2 cm) per yearreductions below that elevation:

- The recording period is too short to know ifthese observations represent a long-termtrend, since Arctic temperatures appear tonaturally fluctuate in 60-80 year time cycles.

- Annual snowfall increases and melts havebeen observed to be strongly linked tovariability in regional atmospheric circulation(the North Atlantic Oscillation), along withpossible smaller influences associated withtemperatures.

Annual Greenland Ice Sheet melt changes revealed bysatellite data since 1978 are believed to be largelyinfluenced by regional atmospheric circulation patternsand conditions. Comparable lower-than-average totalmelts occurred in 1992 and 1996, and similar higher-than-average melts occurred in 1991, 2002, and 2005.Warming (from natural and human-enhanced influences)may be a contributing factor. The lower-than-average1992 melt appears to be linked to a large Mt Pinatuboeruption that released aerosols.

Konrad Steffan and Russel Huff CIRES, University of Colorado at Boulder

Greenland Ice Sheets


50

CLIMATE INFLUENCES

Contrary to IPCC conclusions that allglobal warming scenarios inevitably lead tosea level increases, the Antarctic andGreenland observations demonstrateapparent exceptions.• However a caveat in the IPCC report

acknowledged the potential fallibility ofcurrent climate prediction models, statingthat: “Such models cannot yet simulate allaspects of climate (e.g. they cannotaccount for the observed trend in surface-troposphere temperature changes since1979) and there are particularuncertainties associated with clouds andtheir interaction with radiation andaerosols”:

- It is widely recognized that whilecomputer simulations do providescholarly tools, they contain substantiveuncertainties, and cannot accuratelyreproduce many climate features. Climate Modeling Challenges

Weather is influenced by many interactive day-to-dayconditions and events in a locality that are often difficult topredict with confidence. Global climate is conventionallythought to be comprised of interactive local weather conditionsover large scales measured over 30 years or more, addingenormously greater complexities and uncertainties.

CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research


51

CLIMATE INFLUENCES

Strongly influenced by the IPCC report, theKyoto Protocol was established by the UN,and requires participating industrializednations to reduce emissions of CO2 and fiveother greenhouse gases (GHGs) by 5.2%under 1990 levels between 2008-2012.

• The US and Australia have believedcertain provisions to be unrealistic andunfair, including exemptions for China andIndia, terms that enable the EU andRussia to trade GHG emission creditswithin regional countries, and advantagesto previously very polluted nations:

- The EU is believed to have a largeadvantage because German reunificationeliminated many dirty East Germanindustries, a circumstance that alsoapplies to Russia following the collapse ofthe USSR.

- The UK has an advantage following thediscovery of a large North Sea naturalgas deposit that enabled a major coalphase-out.

The Kyoto Protocol was established under the UN’sFramework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), andbecame active in 2005 following ratification by Russia.


CNN

52

CLIMATE INFLUENCESBIOSYSTEMS & CLIMATE

53

CLIMATE INFLUENCES

Neither the Clinton nor Bush Administrationshave found terms of the Kyoto Protocolacceptable.• These positions follow a policy established

through unanimous passage of a July, 1997Byrd-Hagel US Senate Resolution (S. Res. 98)which stated that the US should not besignatory to any protocol that does not includebinding targets and timetables for bothdeveloping and industrialized nations or “wouldresult in serious harm to the economy of theUnited States”:

- Although Vice President Al Gore symbolicallysigned the Protocol, the Clinton Administrationnever submitted it to the Senate for ratification.

- President Bush has indicated that he alsodoesn’t plan to seek Senate ratification, notonly because of the China and Indiaexemptions, but additionally because of strainsit would put on the economy and uncertaintiesregarding climate change assertions.

Bi-Partisan Kyoto Rejection


The Byrd-Hagel Senate Resolution 98 VetoedKyoto Protocol Terms

Neither the Clinton nor Bush AdministrationsSought Kyoto Senate Ratification

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CLIMATE INFLUENCESBIOSYSTEMS & CLIMATE

Objections to specific terms of the Kyoto Protocolwere based upon a variety of economic arguments,and environmental concerns:• The 2008 compliance completion date mandated

by the Protocol would force an unrealistic schedulefor retiring and replacing energy technologies sincethe typical lifetime of a power plant is about 30years, and the average US automobile is on theroad for 11-12 years.

• Some scientists argued that certain environmentalprovisions were misguided, such as providingcredits for planting forests to sequester carbon, butdoing so in a way that would offer economicincentives to destroy wetlands, potentially creatingexcess CO2.

• Some climatologists argued that real effects uponclimate change would be virtually nonexistent sincean estimated 2% - 3% emission reduction would bewithin the natural margin of error, and trivialcompared with natural carbon sequestration bythe marine and terrestrial biosphere.

Economic and Environmental Issues

Technology Phase-Out Schedule

Destruction of Wetlands

55

CLIMATE INFLUENCES

Establishment and enforcement of universalinternational environmental protectionstandards has thus far proven to be anelusive goal.• The Kyoto Protocol, now ratified by 163

countries, reflects common priorities butperhaps little real progress:

- The US and Australia have declined to ratify,arguing that the maximum greenhouse gasemission limits are unrealistically restrictiveand costly to meet.

- Of all ratifying countries, only 31 are actuallyrequired to lower greenhouse emissions,and China and India with huge populations,exploding industrial growth and enormouspollution problems are among thoseexcluded.

- Europe and Japan are struggling to meetthe greenhouse restrictions, while Canadahas given up entirely.

- Germany has exempted its coal industryfrom compliance.

Pursuing International Solutions

Planetsave


56

CLIMATE INFLUENCES

As contentious debate among public andprivate groups continues within the USand other countries regarding merits andfaults of the Kyoto Protocol, many ratifiersand refrainers are working to pursuemore satisfactory agreements.• The US and Australian governments are

signatories of an “Asian PacificPartnership on Clean Development andClimate” sponsored by an Association ofSoutheast Asian Nations (ASEAN)regional forum in 2005 which enablescountries to set voluntary GHGreduction goals:

- Other participating countries includeChina, India, Japan and South Koreawho ratified the Kyoto Protocol.

- The US hopes to fulfill a pledge toreduce CO2 emissions 18% by 2012,and the pact also appears to be gainingfavor in Canada which now recognizesan inability to meet its Kyoto targets. Beyond the Kyoto Agreement

The US currently heads the world in CO2 emissions. Chinais adding about one new coal-fired power plant per week,plans to do this for the foreseeable future, and is expected tobe the largest GHG emitter within a few years.

BBC


57

BIOSYSTEMS & CLIMATE CLIMATE INFLUENCES

• Recognizing that all-too-often these separatepriorities have produced conflicts, withenvironment the loser, it is also important torealize ways the underlying objectives of bothare interdependent:

- Commercial investment, production and profitsprovide employment essential to supportfamilies of all income levels, financeeducation and public services, and createsafe and affordable energy and food used indaily life.

- Businesses that fail, or are forced to relocateto countries with lower environmentalstandards, compound economic stress withadditional global environment impacts.

- Economic prosperity reinvested by industryprovides cleaner, more efficient productionmethods, products and advancements.

Economic Policy Priorities and Challenges

Larry Bell

Interjections of economic considerations intonational and international environmental policydecisions can be regarded by some as aninevitable compromise of principles.

• Establish a responsible balance betweeneconomic and environmental interests, ensuringthat both are fully and effectively represented inpolicy and finance decisions.

• Provide incentives and regulatory mechanismsthat promote clean industries without imposingoverly burdensome costs and restrictions thatsend production and jobs overseas to placesthat lack equivalent environmental standards.

• Protect national competitiveness in worldmarkets through international agreements thatinsist upon fairness, while also demonstratingthat global cooperation benefits everyone.

• Recognize responsibilities of all nations tosupport less developed ones through technologyfunding and transfer for climate-related studiesand projects.

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MOVING FORWARDBIOSYSTEMS & CLIMATE

Many very intelligent, highly-educatedand extremely dedicated people sharereal concerns about climate change, yetsharply disagree about specific causes,impacts and solutions.• Such varying perspectives and

opinions are powerful motivators thatdrive innovative ideas, exploration intonew areas of investigation, anddevelopment of improved researchmethods and tools:

- The fact that these differences are oftenpassionately debated reflects theenormous importance attached to theirconcerns, and deserves to be honoredwith appreciation and respect.

- Real progress demands that theoriesbe regarded as unproven possibilities,and “established facts” be constantlytested as newer, more comprehensiveinformation is revealed.

How Concerned Should We Be About Global Warming/CO2?

Honoring Disagreements

Larry Bell

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Wide-spread concerns about global cooling trendsduring the 1970s and warming in the present mayhave a solid basis (possibly in reverse order), buteven then do not necessarily warrant direcatastrophic forecasts.• There are no conclusive reasons to believe that

slightly lower temperatures are preferable toslightly higher ones, or that modest warmingtrends will trigger runaway greenhouse events:

- Recognizing that atmospheric and surfaceclimate mechanisms may well be sensitive torelatively small influences, CO2-water vaporinteractions linked to greenhouse feedbackloops do appear to be less active than climatemodels formerly suggested.

- It is also apparent that much of the CO2 releasedfrom human and natural processes is absorbedby the oceans and terrestrial biosphere,providing an essential nutrient for agriculture,forests and all plant-based ecosystems.

Global Warming Questions

Larry Bell

Human Influences:• What levels of greenhouse gas emissions are

significant?• How important is CO2 as a greenhouse gas?• What are other human forcing factors and

interrelationships?• How significant are fossil fuel combustion

influences?• Can switches to biofuels and other alternatives

make measurable differences?• How important are land use change influences?Effects and Concerns:• How warm is ultimately “too warm”?• Is current warming a natural micro-trend within

this present interglacial?• When is the next ice age “scheduled” to arrive?• Are net Arctic / Antarctic water mass balances

changing?• Will Northern Atlantic salinity dilution trigger

cooling?• What human greenhouse gas reductions are

possible / realistic?

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It is rational to recognize global warming as acurrent reality that can possibly precipitate non-linear sudden climate shifts.

• A 2002 report titled “Abrupt Climate Change:Inevitable Surprises” issued jointly by theOcean Studies Board, Polar Research Board,and Board on Atmospheric Sciences andClimate of the National Research Counciladvocated preparation without panic:

- “The climate record for the past 100,000 yearsclearly indicates that the climate system hasundergone periodic and often extreme shifts,sometimes in little as a decade or less”…“Societies have faced both gradual andabrupt changes for millennia and havelearned to adapt…”

- “It is important not to be fatalistic about thethreats of abrupt climate change”…“Nevertheless, because climate change willlikely continue in the coming decades,denying the likelihood or downplaying therelevance of abrupt changes could be costly.”

Dangerous ExtremesThe “Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable SurprisesReport” issued by the National Academy of Sciences in2002 emphasizes that “Increased knowledge is thebest way to improve the effectiveness of response;research into causes, patterns, and likelihood of abruptclimate change can help reduce vulnerabilities andincrease our ability to react.”

Complacency, possibly rooted in denial orapathy, promote hazardous tendencies toassume that “everything is really fine”; or“someone else will solve the problem”; or itwon’t happen in my lifetime or anytime soon,so why worry?”

Hysteria, potentially fueled by simplisticassumptions and sensationalism can promotedesperate, misguided and costly decisions atthe expense of seeking better understanding ofunderlying issues and pursuing the mosteffective intervention options.

Larry Bell

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The fact that theories and models do notalways match measured observations doesnot necessarily indicate that basic underlyingpremises are wrong, that predicted outcomesare invalid, or that reasoned interventionsshould be delayed until all conditions areperfectly understood.

• There is inescapable evidence that humanactivities are changing Earth’s environment,including its climate, in ways that poseunacceptable perils to all life:

- Air, water and land pollution is an expandingglobal reality that must be rapidly reversedbefore the impacts are irreversible.

- Fossil fuel depletion is a near-term certaintythat demands a greatly acceleratedadjustment of consumption habits andtransition to clean, sustainable alternatives.

Responsive Priorities

Information:Determine interrelationships between causes / effects and human contributions / interventions.Education:Disseminate accurate information to advance public, industry, and government awareness.

Pollution/ Climate

Fossil Depletion

Global Issues

Innovation:Develop responsive technologies, strategies, and programs that address short- and long-term needs.Application:Put responsive plans and technology infrastructures into action through national and global initiatives.

Larry Bell

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The emergence of Homo Sapiens fromthe Late Pleistocene glacial periodabout 13,000 years ago demonstratedour remarkable human capacity toadapt and survive.• Since that time humankind has

achieved much, beginning with stonetools, and ultimately returning similarrocks during expeditions to the Moon:

- Our genus has learned not only howto adapt to the environment, butthrough agriculture, industry andliving, to adapt the planet to servehuman purposes.

- We are now realizing that ourcontinued survival will depend uponlearning how to protect the planetfrom our impacts, probably thegreatest adaptation challenge of all. Applying Knowledge and Tools

NASA NASAChemistryland Chemistryland

63


Our human capacity to gain knowledge aboutchanges we are imposing upon our planetprovides opportunities to adapt our living habits,industries and technologies to prevent eventsunscheduled by Nature from creating unfortunateand avoidable surprises.• Such events, including resource exhaustion,

ecosystem destruction and severe climatechanges can have harsh consequenceseffecting all life:

- Rapid changes, even lasting over relativelyshort periods, can be more hazardous anddisruptive than slow ones, allowing less time torespond.

- Unlike our early ancestors, we won’t be able tosimply “pack up and leave”, since there maybe few places to escape to, and it may beimpossible to relocate present largepopulations to more favorable areas,particularly across restricted national borders. Penalties for Failures

Scientific American European Space AgencyUnited Nations Magazine Vestal Design

64


International researchers from diverse disciplinesusing a variety of new tools are making realprogress towards achieving a better understandingof natural and human-enhanced influences uponEarth’s environment and climate.• Increasingly precise methods are being used and

improved to measure distant and recent climateand temperature fluctuations, and to assessobserved and potential influences uponatmospheric and surface phenomena and theirinteractions:

- Expedited advancement and expandedapplication of these capabilities is vitallyimportant to construct more comprehensive andreliable climate models, both to examine currentforcing conditions, and to predict future trendsand consequences.

- Rapid advancements in computing technologiesare also encouraging, and are critically importantto study enormously complex interrelationshipsbetween forcing influences that are continuouslybeing revealed. Information Advancements

NOAA Polar-Orbiting Operational Environmental (NOAA-K) Satellite

NOAA / NASA

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Information technology is but one of many toolsafforded to guide better understanding ofNature’s complexities and intricacies, ourinfluences upon these phenomena, and lessonswe can apply to be more positive contributors.• Other important tools are our natural gifts of

human curiosity, reasoning, creativity and thecapability to recognize our dependence uponthe wellbeing and stability of other creatures,habitats and support systems that our actionsimpact:

- As students of Nature and Earth’s history welearn that very large events andconsequences can precipitate from smallcompounding influences over relatively shorttime frames.

- We can also readily observe that pervasivehuman influences upon this plant’s fragilelands, oceans and atmosphere are neithersmall nor sustainable. Lessons from Experience

NOAA Welfare Service ClubAsel Electronic RST3

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Contributions to Global Changes

Larry BellThe spheres of influence that impact life on ourplanet are always in a dynamic, complex anddelicate state of balance.• Human activities clearly impact the equilibrium

of these influences, and are doing to at anaccelerating rate:- During the past two centuries we have

switched from biomass energy to fossil fuelsfor more than 90% of industrial energy,releasing CO2 that has been stored formillions and billions of years.

- Toxic pesticides created to increase foodproduction needed to support growing worldpopulations has entered sensitive marineecosystems.

- Nitrates and particulates released fromcombustion are polluting the atmosphere.

- Short-sighted agricultural, mining anddeforestation practices have sacrificedtopsoils, leached chemicals into land andwater, and effected the oxygen-CO2 balance.

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There is little disagreement within our globalcommunity that we must change the ways wetreat our natural environment before itretaliates in ways we cannot correct.

• Whether these repercussions occur rapidlyor over longer time frames, present trendsare unsustainable, promising unthinkableconsequences that transcend geographicboundaries:

- Citizens, children and future generationsthroughout the world are equal stakeholdersin the outcomes of our actions.

- Industrialized and developing nations enjoyspecial responsibilities and opportunities toprovide essential solutions and examples.

- Our decisions and commitments may welldetermine the ultimate destiny and naturallegacy of human civilization.

Our Legacy

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Living Only In the Here and Now

Larry Bell/ Candy Feuer

Viewed from vantage points of our everydaylives it is convenient to perceive the world as anopen and unbounded place with limitless self-healing ability and resource abundance.• From this perspective we may be even more

inclined to view ourselves and ourcommunities as small, isolated parts ofoverwhelmingly large systems and eventswhere our actions are inconsequential or futile:- Everything, including the weather, comes

from “somewhere else” and we have noeffect upon it.

- If we lack adequate supplies of somethingwe can find them “somewhere else”, oreventually substitute other things that willwork as well or even better.

- We might imagine that adverse changes inour environments will occur slowly andreversibly so that we can afford to worryabout them later.

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NASAGazing upwards towards the night sky, none ofus alive today in “developed” regions, otherthan astronauts who have orbited above oursmall globe, have witnessed the bright andexpansive starfields that our ancestorsobserved a few generations past.• Lacking such a reference of change, and with

views obscured by atmospheric pollutants, wemay often lose sight of important realities:

- We may be unaware of the extent and rateour activities are effecting essential lifesupport systems.

- We may tend not to recognize that whatevery community on Earth puts into theatmosphere (and oceans) is rapidlydistributed through natural transport toglobal destinations.

- We may often forget that nature mixes allenvironmental influences together withcombined and interactive consequences.

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Larry Bell/ Candy Feuer

Due to our visual inability to perceive depth ofthe atmosphere that surrounds us we mayoften fail to recognize its limited dimension.• Using the Earth as a reference, that fragile life

support layer is indeed very shallow.- Compared with our planet’s radius of

approximately 6,400km (4,100 miles), 99%of Earth’s atmosphere is contained within alayer only about 50km (31miles) thick.

- All life on Earth inhabits a layer no morethan 9km (5.6 miles) thick, extending from afew kilometers above sea level (airborneorganisms and life on mountains) to a fewkilometers below (deep ocean creaturesand subterranean microbes).

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(Distance Reference: Earth/LEO vs. Grapefruit)

Larry Bell/ Candy FeuerMoving farther out into “space” at an altitudewhere space stations orbit, we continue tofind ourselves well within Earth’s immediateterritorial border.• Using the proportions of a grapefruit to put

dimensions into perspective we are nowonly moving about the outer skin surface:- Low-Earth Orbit (LEO) at a distance of

about 250 miles (400km) is less than 5%of Earth’s radius away.

- Earth’s atmosphere estimated to extendoutward from the surface to about 62miles (100km) represents about 1.5% ofthe radius (the inner grapefruit skin).

- Earth’s crust, which constitutes all solidstructures, extends inwards about 15miles (25km) (about 0.4% of the radius)barely penetrating into the grapefruit’sjuicy part.

A Thin Slice of Life

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Looking Back

NASAFrom LEO we observe a dynamic Earthwhere forces of nature and consequencesof human activities connect, interact andoften collide.• This view reveals the contiguous surface

of our planet, where the only realboundaries between human nations andjurisdictions are defined only by landfeatures and water bodies.- Weather forces form windswept

patterns that rapidly circumnavigate theglobe, distributing water and dispersingcontaminants along their paths.

- Storm runoffs and river currentstransport topsoils and chemicals tomarshlands and estuaries for deposit assediments, or transfer to more distantlocations by ocean tides.

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Earth viewed from space makes us realize thatwe are all members of a global civilizationaware of impacts that our common communityhas upon our planet and our future.• Pollutants from all parts of the world rapidly

circumnavigate through the atmosphere andoceans to distant locales, and weather andclimate influences recognize no geopoliticalboundaries:

- Environmental abuses everywhere areultimately visited upon us as our problems,as are those we export to others.

- Interventions we enact, while important, offeronly marginal protection from cumulativeimpacts of other nations, includingcontamination of marine ecosystems weshare and the air we breathe.

- It is clear that just as the problems are global,real solutions must be also.

Image created using data from four satellites,showing fires burning on land areas, a largeaerosol cloud over the Atlantic Ocean formed bybiomass burning in Africa, and a dust cloudsurrounding the globe.

NASA

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Viewing our tiny, fragile planet from space wecan more fully realize that there is really no“them”, only us, and that we must learn to liveand work within that sphere of reality.• Our world, shared with other creatures, is a

place of overwhelming, magnificent complexity:

- It is a place within an infinitely larger Universewhere marvelous, often poorly-understoodnatural forces interact and exchange energy atunimaginably large and small levels of scale.

- It is place where global and microscopic eventsoccurring over millennia and microsecondscause some creatures to evolve, while othersunable to adapt perish.

- It is a place where societies bound together bycommon purposes and dreams sometimesbecome separated by conflicts that impact ourlives, future and planet.

NASA

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Everything is Small Compared to the Universe, and Everything is Important

Candy FeuerA realistic and resourceful world view recognizesthat each and all of us are integral parts of Natureand that it constitutes what we are made of.

• This perspective makes no distinction orexcuse regarding size since elements andactions at all levels of scale are connected:

- Being parts of an unimaginably large andmarvelous Universe empowers rather thandiminishes us (and everything is tiny compared tothe Universe).

- Small actions and examples can bring about largeeffects by establishing precedents for others toparticipate.

- Almost nothing in Nature can be truly isolatedfrom an influence upon everything else.

- In Nature, everything is part of everything,including us and our individual actions.

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