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Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael.berkeley.edu

Biofuels: Challenges & Opportunities to Sustainability

Daniel M. Kammen

Co-Director, Berkeley Institute of the Environment

Energy and Resources Group & Goldman School of Public Policy

Department of Nuclear Engineering

University of California, Berkeley

Materials online at: http://rael.berkeley.edu

“Transitioning to Sustainability through Research and Development”

National Academy of Sciences, October 17, 2007


Readings from the RAEL Group at UC Berkeley• Farrell, A. R., Plevin, R., Turner, B., Jones, A. R., O’Hare, M. and Kammen, D. M.

“Ethanol can contriubte to energy and environmental goals”, Science, 312, 1748.

The EBAMM model: http://rael.berkeley.edu

• Kammen, D. M. (2007) “Transportation's Next Big Thing is Already Here”, May, GreenBiz.com, Climate Wise

• Jacobson, A. and Kammen, D. M. (2005) “ Science and engineering research that values the planet”, The Bridge: Journal of the National Academy of Engineering, Winter, 11 – 17

• Low Carbon Fuel Standard for California:

A. R. Brandt, A. Eggert, A. E. Farrell, B. K. Haya, J. Hughes, B. Jenkins, A. D. Jones, D. M. Kammen, C. R. Knittel, M. Melaina, M. O’Hare, R. Plevin, D. Sperling(2007) A Low-Carbon Fuel Standard for California Part 2: Policy Analysis (Office of the Governor / Air Resources Board).

S. R. Arons, A. R. Brandt, M. Delucchi, A. Eggert, A. E. Farrell, B. K. Haya, J. Hughes, B. Jenkins, A. D. Jones, D. M. Kammen, C. R. Knittel, D. M. Lemoine, E. W. Martin, M. Melaina, J. M. Ogden, R. Plevin, D. Sperling, B. T. Turner, R. B. Williams, and C. Yang (2007) A Low-Carbon Fuel Standard for California Part 1: Technical Analysis (Office of the Governor / Air Resources Board).


Today’s

Biofuel

Industry

• Feedstocks are agricultural commodities

• Fuels are traditional substances

• Success depends on subsidies and mandates

• Small, but profitable and growing rapidly

Sources: US EIA, BP, RFA-

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Bill

ion

gallo

ns p

er y

ear

$0

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

$ pe

r ga

llon

Fuel Ethanol Production (left axis)

Petroleum Price (right axis)


Fundamental research goals for a

sustainable biofuels industry

• Lower costs and enhance economic opportunitieso Improve fuel properties

o Decrease production costs

• Reduce environmental effectso Greenhouse gases, biodiversity, fertilizer runoff, land-use change

• Promote social goalso Rural livelihoods, oil import reduction, etc.

A joint focus is needed on

⇒⇒⇒⇒ Social objectives and technological progress for biofuels which can reduce the need for arable land and increase sustainable economic opportunities


Feedstocks that use degraded land or no

land require advanced technologies

• Ligno-cellulosicfermentation

• Gasification & synthesis

• Fast Pyrolysis

• Algae

Energy Biosciences Institute

University of California, BerkeleyLawrence Berkeley National Laboratory

University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign

Overview

•Feedstock-to-fuel choices have profound impacts far beyond the energy sector

•Carbon is a start, but sustainable fuel standards are needed


University of California, BerkeleyLawrence Berkeley National LaboratoryUniversity of Illinois at Urbana-ChampaignBP (partner and $500 million funder)

•Biofuel research and demonstration must be integrated with policy development

•Biofuels link energy and globalization

•Markets provide a key tool

•The poor are the most at risk, but have much to gain if biofuels are made tools to achieve sustainable societies


0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

U.S

. GH

G E

mis

sion

s (G

T C

eq.

)

Historic U. S.

emissions

Business as usual (EIA)

Kyoto protocol

Administration intensity target

California AB 32, AB1493& EE 3-05

Scaled from CAto the nation

Climate Stabilization Zone

Kammen, “September 27, 2006 – A day to remember”, San Francisco Chronicle, September 27,

The California commitment - scaled to the nation


Renewable Energy Portfolio Standards

23 states + DC, and counting

State Goal

PA: 18%¹ by 2020

NJ: 22.5% by 2021

CT: 10% by 2010

MA: 4% by 2009 + 1% annual increase

WI: requirement varies by utility; 10% by 2015 Goal

IA: 105 MW

MN: 10% by 2015 Goal +Xcel mandate of

1,125 MW wind by 2010

TX: 5,880 MW by 2015

*NM: 10% by 2011AZ: 15% by 2025

CA: 20% by 2010

NV: 20% by 2015

ME: 30% by 2000;10% by 2017 goal - new RE

State RPS

*MD: 7.5% by 2019

* Increased credit for solar or other customer-sited renewablesPA: 8% Tier I (renewables)

HI: 20% by 2020

RI: 15% by 2020

CO: 10% by 2015

DC: 11% by 2022

NY: 24% by 2013

MT: 15% by 2015

*DE: 10% by 2019

IL: 8% by 2013

VT: RE meets load growth by 2012

Solar water heating eligible

*WA: 15% by 2020


Open access, online, biofuel calculator tools: http://rael.berkeley.edu/ebamm


UK approach may become an internationally agreed

methodology in compliance with WTO rules

Feedstock transport

Biofuel production

Cultivation & harvest

Cultivation & harvest

Biofuel transport

Waste materialWaste

material

Alternative waste

management

Boundary for monthly carbon intensity calculationLand Use

direct

Land Use(indirect)

Fossil fuel reference system

Assessed separately

Excludes minor sources, from:

• Manufacture of machinery or equipment, chemicals

• PFCs, HFCs, SF6

Assessed ex post

Biofuel use

Maximize the use of waste Recognize previous land useStandardize system boundaries Co-product allocation

Move to ‘sustainable fuel’ standard to benefit the po or and ecosystems


An Alternative Fuel is Not Necessarily a

Low-Carbon Fuel, but it can be

FT (Coa

l)

Gasoli

ne (S

hale)

Gasoli

ne (T

ar S

ands

)

FT (C

oal C

CD)Gas

oline

Ethan

ol (C

orn

Coal)

Ethan

ol (T

oday

)Eth

anol

(Cor

n NG)

Biodies

elEth

anol

(Cor

n Biom

ass)

Ethan

ol (C

ellulo

se)

Ethan

ol (C

orn

Biomas

s CCD)

Ethan

ol (C

ellulo

se C

CD)

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1

lbs

CO

2/ga

l gas

olin

e eq

uiva

lent

FT (Coal)

Gasoline (Shale)

Gasoline (Tar Sands)

FT (Coal CCD)

Gasoline

Ethanol (Corn Coal)

Ethanol (Today)

Ethanol (Corn NG)

Biodiesel

Ethanol (Corn Biomass)

Ethanol (Cellulose)

Ethanol (Corn Biomass CCD)

Ethanol (Cellulose CCD)2007 standard

2020 standard


A promising crop: Miscanthus X Giganticus

Top left: summer Miscanthus growth (sterile)

Top right: Miscanthus stands (UK)

Right: winter harvest of the C4 plant, Miscanthus after growing season and nutrients and water returned to the soil

Photo credits: S. Long (U. of Illinois/EBI)


Land Required to Satisfy Current U.S. Mobility Demand

1,200600200 400 800 1,0000

New Land Required (million acres)

CRP Land (30 MM)

Light DutyHeavy Duty

U.S. Cropland (400 MM)

II. Corn stover (72%) -50 Feasibility of stover utilization enhanced by rotation

I. Soy � switchgrassor large biomass soy -10

Agricultural integrationEarly-cut switchgrass produces more feed protein/acrethan soy; similar benefits from “large biomass soy”

Vehicle efficiency 2.5X↑ 165

Advanced processing 41091 gal Geq/ton

1,030Status quo 36 gal Geq/ton, current mpg, no ag. integration, 5 tons/acre*yr

Biomass yield 2.5X↑ 65

III. Other Winter cover crops, other residues, increased productivityof food crops, increased production on under-utilized land…

U.S. mobility demand, the largest per capita in the world, could be met from land now used for agriculture while maintaining food production (L. Lynd)

Vehicle Types


Indirect land use causes large GHG emissions(One, un-reviewed, example below)

U.S. corn farmer switches from corn/soy to

corn/corn to supply a new ethanol plant

Additional land in Brazil is put

into soy production

U.S. soy exports go down and world soy prices rise

Tailpipe GHG emission reductions (wrt gasoline)

Corn -0.6 ton / ac. yr.

Sugar -2 ton/ ac. yr.

Land use change GHG emissions

Rainforest: 100–400 ton / ac.

Grassland: 30–80 ton / ac.

More Corn ethanol leads to higher atmospheric GHG concentrations for 38-100 years

Source: Searchinger et al. 2007


< 2< 2< 2< 2< 10< 10< 10< 10600+600+600+600+80+80+80+80+Tank Algae*Tank Algae*Tank Algae*Tank Algae*

75.175.175.175.12102102102102002002002002222PrairiePrairiePrairiePrairie

*assumes CO2 input

5.85.85.85.818181818170017001700170017171717MiscanthusMiscanthusMiscanthusMiscanthus

20.720.720.720.7606060606006006006006666

SwitchSwitchSwitchSwitch----

grassgrassgrassgrass

75.175.175.175.12102102102102002002002002222SorghumSorghumSorghumSorghum

15.315.315.315.3404040408008008008007777Corn TotalCorn TotalCorn TotalCorn Total

38.51053003Corn stover

25.3705004Corn grain

% 2006 % 2006 % 2006 % 2006

harvested harvested harvested harvested

US cropland US cropland US cropland US cropland

neededneededneededneeded

Million acres Million acres Million acres Million acres

needed for needed for needed for needed for

35 billion 35 billion 35 billion 35 billion

gallons of gallons of gallons of gallons of

ethanolethanolethanolethanol

EthanolEthanolEthanolEthanol

(gal/t)(gal/t)(gal/t)(gal/t)

HarvestHarvestHarvestHarvest----

able able able able

Biomass Biomass Biomass Biomass

(tons/(tons/(tons/(tons/

acre)acre)acre)acre)

CROP


Food Prices are Volatile Today – without

biofuels (example: 5 Zambian markets)

Zambia food prices are volatile due to pressures from climate and policy.

Source: Zambia Ministry of Agriculture and Co-operatives, 2007.

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

Pric

e of

Mai

ze -

Ret

ail (

2007

ZM

K/k

g)

Lusaka

Kasama

Solwezi

Choma

Ndolax


Forest Resources Under Stress(Bailis, Ezzati and Kammen, Science, 2005)


source: WHO, 1999

23.7%

10.7%

Resp. Infections

6.5%

N.C. Respiratory

5.6%

30.9%

Cardiovascular

Resp. Tract Cancer

4.1%Diarrheal Diseases

Malaria

Other

Injuries

4%Perinatal Conditions

Childhood Diseases3.1%

4.2% HIV / AIDS

TB2.8%

Total54 M

The Global Distribution of Disease (Mortality)


% T

otal

Glo

bal P

M E

xpos

ure

Industrialized DevelopingSmith, 1988

Exposure = Population • Time • Pollution

0

20

40

60

Urban Rural Urban Rural

49%

6%

30%

3%

2%

0.1%

0.8%

9%

Indoor

Outdoor

Global Exposure to Air Pollution


Pro

babi

lity

(AR

I)

Average Daily Exposure (µg / m3)

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0 2000 4000 6000 8000

Charcoal

Ceramic Wood Stoves

3-Stone Fire

Illness Reduction Observed in Kenya(ARI = acute respiratory infection)

All ARI

ALRI, Lower respiratoryInfections only


University of California, BerkeleyLawrence Berkeley National Laboratory

University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign

William Collins, LBNL


Ethanol can Displace Gasoline Consumption

in Africa

• Using only post-harvest crop losses as inputs (up to 50 percent of yields), biofuels can play a significant role

• Implications for poverty alleviation, job creation, urban health, and foreign currency savings

• Metrics for ecological and cultural sustainability must be part of the planning process

Source: FAO/IIASA 2002, EIA 2007, ICRISAT 2007


UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORN IA

BERKELEY

REPORT OF THE

RENEWAB LE AND APPROPRIATE ENERGY

LABORA TORY

Putting Renewables to Work:

How Many Jobs Can the

Clean Energy Industry

Generate?

by

Daniel M. Kammen

Kamal Kapadia

Matthias Fripp

of the

Energy and Resources Group &

the Goldman School of Pu blic Policy

APRIL 13, 2004

Study reviews:

• 13 studies of job creation

• 3 - 5 timesMore jobs per dollar invested in the renewablessector than in fossil fuels


Construction, Manufacturing,

Installation

O&M and fuel processing

Total Employment

PV 1 REPP, 2001 6.21 1.20 7.41

PV 2 Greenpeace, 2001 5.76 4.80 10.56

Wind 1 REPP, 2001 0.43 0.27 0.71

Wind 2 EWEA/Greenpeace, 2003 2.51 0.27 2.79

Biomass Š high estimate REPP, 2001 0.40 2.44 2.84

Biomass Š low estimate REPP, 2001 0.40 0.38 0.78

Coal REPP, 2001 0.27 0.74 1.01

Gas Kammen, from REPP, 2001; CALPIRG, 2003; BLS, 2004 0.25 0.70 0.95

Energy Technology Source of Estimate

Average Employment Over Life of Facility (jobs/MWa)

Look-up table for simple estimating:Jobs per MW

Kapadia, Fripp and Kammen (2004)“Putting renewables to work”


-

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Green jobs created

(thousands of person years)

-

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

Renewable energy generated (TWh)

Green Collar Job Creation

California

Pennsylvania

New YorkTexas

Illinois

Nevada

Other 18 states with an RPS

plus Federal RPS

Federal + state RPS yields +348,000 jobs in 2025


Per Capita Electricity ConsumptionkWh/person

-

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

1960

1962

1964

1966

1968

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

US w/out Cal and NYUS without CalUnited StatesNew YorkCalifornia

Savings possible equal to total U. S. energy imports

Savings:Energy, $, carbon

Danishaverage


Solar Energy for Many Applications

Moscone Center, SF: 675,000 W

Kenyan PV market: Average system: 18WLargest penetration rate of any nation

Residential Solar: 1000 - 4000 Watts/homeCA Solar Initiative/Million Solar Roofs:

3,000 - 10,000 MW of solar to be built

California Japan

2005 Annual PV Installations 50 MW 290 MW

Average Cost for Residential System $8.8/Wac $7.4/Wac

Average Cost Reduction from 99-04 5.2%/year 8.9%/year


United States’ Public and Private Sector Energy Research and Development Spending

Kammen and Nemet (2005)

“Reversing the incredible shrinking energy R&D budget,” Issues in Science & Technology, Fall, 84 – 88.

-

2

4

6

8

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

R&

D (

2002

$b) Public energy R&D

Private energy R&D

Kammen and Nemet (2005)

“Reversing the incredible shrinking energy R&D budget,” Issues in Science & Technology, Fall, 84 – 88. And Nemet, dissertation, 2007

Patents and R&D Funding Correlated

Plug In Partners / e.g.

CalCars.org


Plug-in Hybrid (PHEV) Off-Peak Electricity Demand

(red: one million PHEVs introduced into California’s 17 million vehicle fleet)

• Additional load from PHEVs is small• PHEVs could be charged mostly via base-load filling during

evenings and nights, when electricity costs are low

Model: IPM

Cellulo

sic e

than

ol (s

witchg

rass

)

Hydro

gen

(from

biom

ass)

Electri

city (

Califo

rnia

aver

age)

Electri

city (

from

gas

with

RPS)

Hydro

gen

(from

nat

ural

gas)

Diesel

(Cali

forn

ia)

Corn

etha

nol (

gas-

fired

elec

tricit

y)

Lique

fied

petro

leum

gas

Corn

etha

nol (

Midw

est a

vera

ge)

Corn

etha

nol (

coal-

fired

elec

tricit

y)

Gasoli

ne (C

alifo

rnia

refo

rmula

ted)

Biom

ass-

to-li

quid

s di

esel

Cel

lulo

sic

etha

nol (

popl

ar)

Coal-t

o-liq

uids d

iesel

Corn

etha

nol (

gas e

lectri

city,

copr

oduc

t)

Corn

etha

nol (

stove

r-fire

d ele

ctrici

ty)

Compr

esse

d na

tura

l gas

Biodies

el (fr

om so

ybea

ns)

Cellul

osic

etha

nol (

prai

rie g

rass

)

Elect

ricity

(fro

m b

iom

ass)

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

GH

G E

mis

sion

s (g

CO

2-e/

MJ)

Kammen laboratory: http://rael.berkeley.edu/ebamm - version 2

From a Low Carbon Fuel Standard to a Sustainable Fuel Standard

Beyond carbon we must examine:

- water and nutrient demand- compatibility with local practices

- food/fuel synergies, not competition


Global CO2 Abatement Opportunities

Vattenfall, 2007


Gasoline

Air travel

Gasoline

Automanufacturing

Auto services

public trans.

airlinespublic trans.

Electricity

Naturalgas

Other fuels

Construction

Financingwater & sewage

electricitynatural gasother fuels

Meat

Eating out

Fruit & veg.

Snack food

cereals

DairyAlcohol & tobacco

Clothing

Household equip.

entertainment.cleaning supplies.

furniture.

healthcaregiving

education

Transportation Housing Food Goods Services

Summary of GHG Emissions for Typical U.S. Household (LEAPS Results) 50 Metric tons of CO2 equivalent gases

IndirectDirect44%

56%

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Total


Recommendations

• Program I:

A research program to assess environmental effects in both developed and developing nationso Greenhouse gases, water intensity (grey and pure) biodiversity, fertilizer runoff, land-use change

• Program 2:

Planning methods to assess costs and to enhance economic opportunitieso Recommendation: develop methodology for

sustainable fuel standard(s)— An integration of GIS data and life-cycle analysis is the likely framework

— Provide a framework for policy decisions around food-fuel conflicts and opportunities for enhanced equity*

• Promote social goals and integration of these two research and advising programs is needed.


Recommendations/expanded

• A national cellulosic biofuel research strategy is needed, and must not only include, but integrate, (at least) the DoE, EPA, USAID, and, centrally, the DoA and the Department of State.

• Low-carbon standards for biofuels are a beginning, but sustainable biofuel standards that include water, nitrogen and other fertilizer applications and cultural sustainability and development, are needed.

• Biofuels bring energy and globalization issues into direct interaction; this presents a major international challenge because bioenergy intensification without a broader low-carbon framework is likely to be harmful.

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