Biofuel supply chain summit 2009
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Transcript of Biofuel supply chain summit 2009
Brasil EcodieselFueling Brazil with Biodiesel
Biofuel Supply Chain Summit 2009Biofuel Supply Chain Summit 2009
Ghent – 09/15/09
Brazilian Experience on Renewable Fuels
Brazilian Experience on Renewable Fuels
Energy Matrix
87,1%
80%
90%
100%
45,4%
54,6%
0%
50%
60%
70%
12,9%
10%
20%
30%
40%
0%
10%
World (2007) Brazil (2008)
RENEWABLE AND CLEAN ENERGY IS ALREADY A REALITY IN BRAZIL
Renewable Non renewables
Source: Resenha Energética Brasileira – Ministério de Minas e Energia
RENEWABLE AND CLEAN ENERGY IS ALREADY A REALITY IN BRAZIL
The Brazilian Biodiesel Program
Introduced in 2005, it was based on:,
• Energy matrix diversification with an eco‐friendly, fsustainable and renewable fuel.
• Reduction of mineral oil and diesel imports• Reduction of mineral oil and diesel imports.
• Social development and job creation whileincentivating family farming, mainly in theNortheast of the country.y
• Better use of available lands.
Biodiesel: Brazilian MarketDi l k t t ti l k t i f bi di lDiesel market: potential market size for biodiesel.
Diesel is the main Brazilian fuel, 42% of all oil derivative fuels and more than 50% of transport sector fuels.
Brazilian Mineral Diesel Market (‘000 m3)
39 663 39 361 37 971 40 947 40 768 42,206
44,188 46,478 47,000 *
45.000
50.000
2007‐ 20088.3%
36,581
39,663 39,361 37,971 40,947 40,768 42,206
35.000
40.000
20.000
25.000
30.000
10.000
15.000
Imports ('000 m3)
Domestic market extremely significant allowing for the development and consolidation of the
‐
5.000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
InternalProduction('000 m3)
5 Source: National Agency for Petroleum, Natural Gas and Biofuels – ANP.(*) 2009 Forecast
Domestic market extremely significant, allowing for the development and consolidation of the sector.
Transportation fuels mix
Gasoline CG li + A h d Eth l
Gasoline: 21,80%
Gasoline + Anhydrous Ethanol21,8 + 7,7 = 29,5%
A h d Eth l 7 70%Diesel:49,20%
Anhydrous Ethanol: 7,70%
Hydrated Ethanol: 17 20%Hydrated Ethanol: 17,20%
Ethanol (total)7,7%+17,2%=24,9%
Natural Gas: 2,80%B100: 1,30%
Diesel (total)49,2% + 1,30% = 50,5%
Source: MME ‐ Resenha Energética Brasileira – Resultados Preliminares de 2008 (Maio/2009)
National Biodiesel Program – where do we stand
Biodiesel Law: Mandatory use to leverage production.
2005 2007 Fi t h lf 2008 2010 onJuly 2008 – July 2009 –2005 ‐ 2007 First half 2008
Mandatory 5% Minimum Blend
Authorized Blend of up to 2%
Mandatory 2% Minimum Blend
2010 onyJune 2009
Mandatory 3% Minimum Blend
y2010
Mandatory 4% Minimum Blend
Brazilian Biodiesel Production (‘000 m3)
Expected anticipation of 5% blend, as happened with 3% and 4%...
2 500
Production Increases show the success of the program
2,000
2,500
1,645
2,500
p g
Current blend percentages are only the 1,000
1,500
402
1,168
p g yinitial stimulus: higher blends and pure B100 already feasible in
engines. ‐
500
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
0.7 69
7Source: National Agency for Petroleum, Natural Gas and Biofuels – ANP.(1) Forecast considers B4 in 2S09 and B5 in 2010.
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Production Production Forecast
The Ethanol Parallel
Government policy and support
Technological Evolution:
Agricultural: the productivity of sugar cane increased from 55t/ha in 1975 to 85t/ha in 2008
Industrial: in the Ethanol production and in the automotive industry
World Trend
Potential for Brazil to become a leader
Domestic alternative with impact in the Trade Balance
Brazilian Biodiesel can achieve, in less time, the same stage ethanol took 40 years!
ill h i h i di i d !
Domestic alternative with impact in the Trade Balance
8
It will happen with immediate investments and resources!
The Brazilian Biodiesel Sector
• The biodiesel program was introduced in 2005 and Brazil has
become, already, the world’s 5th largest producer.
• In 2010, B5 will be introduced, representing a 25% increase in the
demand.
• Extensive available areas climate strong and increasing domesticExtensive available areas, climate, strong and increasing domestic
market favor the growth of the industry.
d h d l f d k ( b fl d• Besides the traditional feedstock (Soybean, Sunflower, Cotton and
animal fats/grease), there are many viable options of non‐edible
vegetable oil – Castor, Jatropha, Palm, Macaúba, Babaçu, etc.
• As the industry matures, Brazil will become more competitive in
the internacional market.
The Brazilian Biodiesel Sector (cont.)
• The industry has been working with, aproximately, 50% of its
capacity.
Th i d t i t lik l t f lid ti i th• The industry is most likely to face a consolidation process in the
near future.
• Verticalization or some sort of control of the feedstock will be
essential for survivalessential for survival.
• Efficiency in the industrial process and productivity in the
agriculture side will be extremely important when the free market
takes place.p
The competitive advantages of Brazil
Technology or Raw Material: Key Success Factor?
10%
60%
80%
100%
80%
10%10%
Other Inputs and General Expenses
Methanol/ Ethanol
0%
20%
40%
Bi di l C t St t
%
Vegetable Oil
Technology Well‐Known!
Not an entry barrier.
Main Input is Vegetable Oil, in volume and cost.
Biodiesel Cost Structure
Achieve uniform quality in large scale production and with different vegetable
oils is the challenge!
Second main input is methanol.
So, it's a variable cost industry.oils is the challenge!
Known Technology + Variable Cost Industry =
12
Access to raw material is the key success factor.
Bi di l P d i b R M i l B ilBiodiesel Producion by Raw Material ‐ Brazil
jan/09 feb/09 mar/09 apr/09 may/09 jun/09jan/09 feb/09 mar/09 apr/09 may/09 jun/09
Soya 71.16% 73.68% 85.37% 76.37% 81.33% 81.10%
Animal Fat 24.54% 19.25% 10.94% 19.36% 16.11% 14.03%
Cottom 3.25% 4.96% 1.59% 2.04% 0.00% 2.97%
Others 1.05% 2.11% 2.1% 2.36% 2.56% 1.90%
Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Optimized Mix of Oils in the Long Term…
SOYA COTTON SUNFLOWER CASTOR JATROPHA PALM% of oil
in the seeds18 ‐ 2215 ‐ 20 40 ‐ 45 45 ‐ 50 30 ‐ 3918 ‐ 20
in the seedskg of oil
per hectareTechnologicallyDeveloped
400 350 700 700 1,500 3,000
Developed
Perennial
Edible
Avoid competition for food lands; Diversify Risks!
Higher content of oil per hectare;
Take advantage of regional potential of crops;
Optimize land usage!
Occupy idle areas, with poor soil correction!
Brazil: Land, Climate, Regular Rainfall, SunAMAZON REGION: No plantationexpansion, avoiding degradation
NORTHEAST:
Available land, mostly inadequate for food production;
Excellent for alternative crops, such p ,as Castor and Jatropha;
Contribution to social development.
BRAZIL Area Million haBRAZIL - Area Million haTotal 851Suitable for Agriculture 340
Cultivated 72Pastures 172Available 96
Source: FGVAgro – 2º Brazil –EU Business Summit, Dec 22,2008. Keynote Speaker Roberto Rodrigues.
CENTER WEST SOUTH andCENTER‐WEST, SOUTH and SOUTHEAST: Current main
production areas
Fuel Distribution Bases and Diesel consumption
Northeast ‐ 15%North ‐ 9%
Mid‐west– 11%
Southeast ‐ 45%
South ‐ 20%
Brasil Ecodiesel SA
Highlights
Brasil Ecodiesel on the map
Major biodiesel producer in Brazil and the only one with nationwide presence
Biodiesel Plants – 580 ths m3 p.y.6 operational multi–feedstock
Biodiesel Plants 580 ths m p.y.
Crushing Units2 operational Multi‐seed– 1,600 tpd
3 Certification Laboratories (CE TO e RS)3 Certification Laboratories (CE, TO e RS)
Farms: 41,500 hectares of own land + 17,000 leased
Investments in agriculture
• Initial investment in Castor based on family t a est e t Casto based o a yfarming ‐ disappointing results
• Investment in experiments with Jatropha p pplantation – 5,000 hectares
• Most likely the company will have Jatropha as the main alternative feedstock
Company’s Financial RestructuringCompany s Financial Restructuring
Debt (in ths R$) 1T09 2T09 After 2nd Capital RaiseDebt (in ths R$) 1T09 2T09 After 2nd Capital RaiseShort Term 120,106 92,543 12,877(+) Long Term 177,991 136,912 80,499( ) g , , ,(=) Total Debt 298,097 229,455 93,376(-) Cash 7,416 2,321 151,66(=) Net Debt 290,681 227,134 -58,284
Issues to be tackled by
the Biodiesel Industry
Issues to be tackled by the industry
• Worlwide involvement of society in the global warming issue and in the biofuels discussion.
• The need to lower the cost of biodiesel production.
• Definition of the most suitable feedstock for each region.Definition of the most suitable feedstock for each region.
• Genetically modified seeds will play a decisive role in productivity of the non‐edible feedstock.p y
• The water footprint and NxO emissions will become recurrent issues in biofuels discussions.
• Artificial comercial/specification barriers, such as the land use restrictions and the different national certifications so as to protect local industries, hindering world supply of biodiesel.
“Biodiesel is an industry in its infancy”od ese s a dust y ts a cy
“The production of oil seed biodiesel occurs in j ti ith th d ti f t i ”conjunction with the production of proteins”
“Mineral oil should be directed to the chemistry yindustry, which is a higher value aggregator”
“How much does it cost not to produce biodiesel?”How much does it cost not to produce biodiesel?
“Biodiesel: no war required”