Biodiversity within the - agindustries.org.uk · 1 1.2 1.4 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995...

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Transcript of Biodiversity within the - agindustries.org.uk · 1 1.2 1.4 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995...

Page 1: Biodiversity within the - agindustries.org.uk · 1 1.2 1.4 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 (+/-CL) Modelled index LU + climate Index Modelled index climate
Page 2: Biodiversity within the - agindustries.org.uk · 1 1.2 1.4 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 (+/-CL) Modelled index LU + climate Index Modelled index climate

Biodiversity within the

UK and agriculture –

The State of Nature Report

Dr Andy Clements Chief Executive, British Trust for Ornithology

Page 3: Biodiversity within the - agindustries.org.uk · 1 1.2 1.4 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 (+/-CL) Modelled index LU + climate Index Modelled index climate

Birds & Agriculture:

BTO data & research Dr Andy Clements, BTO

Agribusiness 2014 –

Setting the Agribusiness Agenda

Peterborough, 13 November 2013

Page 4: Biodiversity within the - agindustries.org.uk · 1 1.2 1.4 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 (+/-CL) Modelled index LU + climate Index Modelled index climate

• Independent, impartial charitable,

research institute

• Combines professional and

citizen science

• Gathers evidence of change in

wildlife populations, particularly

birds

• Informs society, opinion-formers

and decision-makers

BTO

• Independent, impartial

charitable, research

institute

• Combines professional

and citizen science

• Gathers evidence of

change in wildlife

populations, particularly

birds

• Informs society,

opinion-formers and

decision-makers

BTO

Photo (top): John Harding

Page 5: Biodiversity within the - agindustries.org.uk · 1 1.2 1.4 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 (+/-CL) Modelled index LU + climate Index Modelled index climate

• Impartial evidence

• Professionals + 50,000 volunteers

• Extensive data + intensive research

• International

Not just counting birds

Page 6: Biodiversity within the - agindustries.org.uk · 1 1.2 1.4 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 (+/-CL) Modelled index LU + climate Index Modelled index climate

Field margins – value for birds

Winter crop use by birds

Organic farming

Sugar beet reform

Overgrazing by sheep

Upland scrub (Scotland)

Ffridd habitats (Wales)

Case studies of upland

change (England)

Coppice and high forest management

Edge effects and scrub

Deer – effects on habitat structure

Woodfuel implications

Research

Page 7: Biodiversity within the - agindustries.org.uk · 1 1.2 1.4 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 (+/-CL) Modelled index LU + climate Index Modelled index climate

1968-72

1981-84

1988-91

Atlas

Photo: John Harding

Page 8: Biodiversity within the - agindustries.org.uk · 1 1.2 1.4 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 (+/-CL) Modelled index LU + climate Index Modelled index climate

Rate of change in agricultural intensification

& bird populations In

dex o

f ra

te o

f ch

an

ge

Year 62 70 80 90

-6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5

0

1

2

3

4

5

6 Birds

Agriculture

Page 9: Biodiversity within the - agindustries.org.uk · 1 1.2 1.4 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 (+/-CL) Modelled index LU + climate Index Modelled index climate

• BTO/JNCC/RSPB

partnership

• 3,430 random sites

covered

• 2,592 volunteers

• 1,091,548 individual birds

counted in 2012

• Robust population trends

calculated for 108 species

The Breeding Bird Survey

Photo: Jill Pakenham

Page 10: Biodiversity within the - agindustries.org.uk · 1 1.2 1.4 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 (+/-CL) Modelled index LU + climate Index Modelled index climate

Breeding farmland bird populations in the UK

Photo: Jill Pakenham

Page 11: Biodiversity within the - agindustries.org.uk · 1 1.2 1.4 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 (+/-CL) Modelled index LU + climate Index Modelled index climate

Grey Partridge

Skylark

House Sparrow

Tree Sparrow

Chaffinch

Greenfinch

Goldfinch

Linnet

Bullfinch

Yellowhammer

Reed Bunting

Corn Bunting

Species Stubble

Absent Present Benefit?

Wren 22 21 -1

Dunnock

Robin

Blackbird

Blue Tit

Great Tit

Hedgero

w

specie

s

Stu

bble

specie

s

Species Stubble

Absent Present Benefit?

Wren 22 21 -1

Dunnock 20 17 -3

Robin 21 14 -7

Blackbird 15 18 +3

Blue Tit -7 -3 +4

Great Tit 14 15 +1

Grey Partridge -58 -40 +18

Skylark -34 -13 +21

House Sparrow 1 7 +6

Tree Sparrow 434 30 -404

Chaffinch -3 5 +8

Greenfinch 24 11 -13

Goldfinch 7 14 +7

Linnet -32 -18 +14

Bullfinch -32 -19 +13

Yellowhammer -30 -16 +14

Reed Bunting 4 -13 -17

Corn Bunting -22 -37 -15

% change in breeding numbers (1994-2003)

according to stubble preference

Photo: Amy Lewis

Page 12: Biodiversity within the - agindustries.org.uk · 1 1.2 1.4 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 (+/-CL) Modelled index LU + climate Index Modelled index climate

40

60

80

100

1994 1997 2000 2003

Year

No Stubble

<10ha Stubble

>10ha Stubble

2000’s

27%

33%

40%

-21% -28%

2008

11%

17%

72%

Skylark Breeding population index

Implications of doing nothing

Photo: Amy Lewis

Page 13: Biodiversity within the - agindustries.org.uk · 1 1.2 1.4 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 (+/-CL) Modelled index LU + climate Index Modelled index climate

Modelled index LU

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Index (

+/-

CL)

Modelled index LU + climate Index

Modelled index climate

Milder winters

have helped

Skylark

Suggests land use (cereal yield) has

been largely responsible for decline

BICCO-Net

Photo: Amy Lewis, Tommy Holden

Page 14: Biodiversity within the - agindustries.org.uk · 1 1.2 1.4 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 (+/-CL) Modelled index LU + climate Index Modelled index climate

• ≥5% increases over 5 years with average areas, via

increased winter survival

• No effects of breeding season management

• Not enough to reverse declines

2002 2005 2010

Yellowhammer

numbers

• ES management has a positive effect:

No ES

+ ES stubble

What do seed option effects mean?

Page 15: Biodiversity within the - agindustries.org.uk · 1 1.2 1.4 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 (+/-CL) Modelled index LU + climate Index Modelled index climate

Commercial

break….

Page 16: Biodiversity within the - agindustries.org.uk · 1 1.2 1.4 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 (+/-CL) Modelled index LU + climate Index Modelled index climate
Page 17: Biodiversity within the - agindustries.org.uk · 1 1.2 1.4 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 (+/-CL) Modelled index LU + climate Index Modelled index climate

Grey Partridge

Photo: Jill Pakenham

Page 18: Biodiversity within the - agindustries.org.uk · 1 1.2 1.4 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 (+/-CL) Modelled index LU + climate Index Modelled index climate

B=-43% I=-53%

Page 19: Biodiversity within the - agindustries.org.uk · 1 1.2 1.4 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 (+/-CL) Modelled index LU + climate Index Modelled index climate

Curlew

Range contraction over 40 years

Britain -17%

Ireland -78% Photo: John Harding

Page 20: Biodiversity within the - agindustries.org.uk · 1 1.2 1.4 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 (+/-CL) Modelled index LU + climate Index Modelled index climate

Nuthatch

Photo: Edmund Fellowes, Jill Pakenham

Page 21: Biodiversity within the - agindustries.org.uk · 1 1.2 1.4 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 (+/-CL) Modelled index LU + climate Index Modelled index climate

Habitat

group

Change

since

Britain Ireland

Median

% range

change

Quartiles N Median %

range change

Quartiles N

Woodland

species

1968–72 0.7 -22.5–13.7 43 0.9 -0.4–6.8 24

1988–91

3.5

-13.8–13.9

46 8.0

2.5–38.6

25

Farmland

species

1968–72 -5.3 -39.4–0.2 26 -2.8 -46.7–0.4 17

1988–91 0.2 -10.0–7.6 26 2.8 -7.9–19.8 17

Wetland

species

1968–72 18.5 1.1–94.8 24 -6.5 -19.6–-0.6 12

1988–91 15.6 1.5–57.7 27 8.6 6.0–26.5 13

Upland

species

1968–72 -10.5 -19.5–18.7 33 -34.5 -50.0–-7.8 17

1988–91 -5.3 -17.2–3.5 34 -4.8 -14.7–13.8 17

Coastal

species

1968–72 -5.9 -17.0–20.8 20 -4.6 -25.3–3.8 16

1988–91 -4.6 -13.8–18.6 21 4.6 -1.6–19.9 16

Breeding season range changes

Photo: Amy Lewis

Page 22: Biodiversity within the - agindustries.org.uk · 1 1.2 1.4 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 (+/-CL) Modelled index LU + climate Index Modelled index climate

Turtle Dove

Photo: Jill Pakenham, Mike Weston

Page 23: Biodiversity within the - agindustries.org.uk · 1 1.2 1.4 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 (+/-CL) Modelled index LU + climate Index Modelled index climate

B=+56% I=+100%

Page 24: Biodiversity within the - agindustries.org.uk · 1 1.2 1.4 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 (+/-CL) Modelled index LU + climate Index Modelled index climate

Confirmed

Probable

Possible

Breeding distribution 2008-11 Change in relative abundance

Increase

Decrease

Stable

Page 25: Biodiversity within the - agindustries.org.uk · 1 1.2 1.4 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 (+/-CL) Modelled index LU + climate Index Modelled index climate

Green Woodpecker

Photo: John Harding, John Flowerday

Page 26: Biodiversity within the - agindustries.org.uk · 1 1.2 1.4 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 (+/-CL) Modelled index LU + climate Index Modelled index climate

Stock Dove

Photo: Edmund Fellowes, Tommy Holden

Page 27: Biodiversity within the - agindustries.org.uk · 1 1.2 1.4 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 (+/-CL) Modelled index LU + climate Index Modelled index climate

Yellow Wagtail

Photo: Jill Pakenham

Page 28: Biodiversity within the - agindustries.org.uk · 1 1.2 1.4 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 (+/-CL) Modelled index LU + climate Index Modelled index climate

Yellowhammer

Photo: Jill Pakenham, Tommy Holden

Page 29: Biodiversity within the - agindustries.org.uk · 1 1.2 1.4 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 (+/-CL) Modelled index LU + climate Index Modelled index climate

Photo: Edmund Fellowes

Page 30: Biodiversity within the - agindustries.org.uk · 1 1.2 1.4 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 (+/-CL) Modelled index LU + climate Index Modelled index climate

Photo: Chas Holt and Edmund Fellowes

Page 31: Biodiversity within the - agindustries.org.uk · 1 1.2 1.4 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 (+/-CL) Modelled index LU + climate Index Modelled index climate

????. Photo: Chris Hewson

Deer and Nightingales

Habitat available Habitat used

Coppice >9 years

(unprotected)

Young coppice

with deer

Young coppice

deer excluded

Photo: Edmund Fellowes

Page 32: Biodiversity within the - agindustries.org.uk · 1 1.2 1.4 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 (+/-CL) Modelled index LU + climate Index Modelled index climate

1996 2007

The spread of Muntjac

Data: BTO/RSPB/JNCC Breeding Bird Survey. Photo: Mike Toms

Page 33: Biodiversity within the - agindustries.org.uk · 1 1.2 1.4 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 (+/-CL) Modelled index LU + climate Index Modelled index climate

Thank you for listening

Page 34: Biodiversity within the - agindustries.org.uk · 1 1.2 1.4 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 (+/-CL) Modelled index LU + climate Index Modelled index climate