Biodiversity and Economic Development in Northern Australia Steve Morton.
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Transcript of Biodiversity and Economic Development in Northern Australia Steve Morton.
CSIRO
Landscape stress
Stress index includes:
• vegetation
• salinity
• pests and weeds
• threatened species and ecosystemsNational Land and
Water Resources Audit
CSIRO
What’s the biodiversity trend?
• Downward Australia-wide
• Why?- grazing- fire- introduced pests and weeds- land-clearing
CSIRO
Two questions about biodiversity
• Does biodiversity matter? - ecosystem goods and services
- clean water- soil structure and fertility- pest control
- aesthetics and morality
• What further pressures will occur?- land development scenarios
CSIRO
Decision points for land and water futures
• Michael Dunlop, Graham Turner, Barney Foran, and Franzi Poldi
• Scenarios for the next 50-100 years, and a long-term view of natural resource use
• Built from the Australian Stocks and FlowsFramework, a physical model of our economy
CSIRO
Water extraction from the Murray-Darling Basin
-
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Water use
Average annual outlfow
CSIRO
Area cleared in Australia
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1851
1901
1951
2001
2051
2101
Are
a (M
ha)
CSIRO
Area cleared (%)
0 20 40 60 80 100
Sp
ecie
s lo
ss (
%)
0
20
40
60
80Z= 0.2 Z= 0.25 Z= 0.3
The species-area curve
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Dryland agriculture scenario
• Investment in dryland agriculture• Expand northern agriculture• Slowing in land degradation• Decrease in irrigation• Increase in river health
CSIRO
Irrigated agriculture scenario
• Reorganise irrigation in south• Increase higher value crops,
decrease pasture and rice• Major expansion in north: cotton, sugar, hort• More agro-forestry, conservation • Major improvements in land based natural
resource issues• Southern rivers remain stressed
CSIRO
Post-agriculture scenario
• Reduction in dryland and irrigated areas• Reinvent agricultural systems• Expansion of new industries
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Northern dryland agriculture
Northern dryland area
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
1851
1901
1951
2001
2051
2101
Dry
lan
d a
rea
(M
ha)
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
Post agriculture
Irrigation scenario
Dryland scenario
CSIRO
Northern irrigated agriculture
Northern irrigated area
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
1851
1901
1951
2001
2051
2101
Irri
gat
ion
(M
ha)
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
Post agriculture
Irrigation scenario
Dryland scenario
CSIRO
Northern water useNorthern irrigation
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
1851
1901
1951
2001
2051
2101
Irri
gat
ion
(G
L)
-
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
History
Post agriculture
Irrigation scenario
Dryland scenario
CSIRO
Australian agriculture
Total area
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1851
1901
1951
2001
2051
2101
Are
a (
Mh
a)
History Post agriculture
Irrigation scenario
Dryland scenario
CSIRO
Biodiversity consequences
• Northern development will have biodiversity impacts - future change is inevitable
• Challenges can be anticipated and managed if we are prepared to face up to them
• Knowledge is the key!• Knowledge gaps exist – scenarios can help
set priorities here• Will we do it right?