Biodiversity and Climate Change

Using Florida PlantsTo Explore Concepts in Ecology and Evolution

Biodiversity:The totality of life on Earth

Biodiversity Crisis & Societal Problems• Loss of biodiversity• Climate change• Emerging pathogens• Invasive species• Threats to food security• Environmentally induced health issues

Solving these biodiversity-centered problemsrequires concentrated attention

from diverse perspectives

Invasive Species:Ecological & Economic Impacts

• Where have invasives been introduced, and how quickly are they spreading?

• What is the pattern of spread, and do patterns covary with other species?

• How does climate change affect the spread of invasives? • Can we predict future invasions?

Biodiversity Collections

The single largest source of informationon biological diversity (outside nature) >1,600 natural history collections in US alone

1 billion specimens in USA

2-4 billion specimens globally

Collections:The Library of Life

Florida Museum of Natural History

> 30 MillionSpecimens and Artifacts

2nd Largest University Museum in US

NMNH

London

Paris LA

AMNH

Harvard

FLMNH

Michiga

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ld

Cal Acad

emy

ANSP

Berkele

yYa

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Nebras

ka

Kansas

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

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Collection Size: World Ranking

Institution

Mill

ions

of S

peci

men

s

Collection Size: US Ranking

Florida Plant Diversity in a Changing Climate

Integrating herbarium specimen data, climate change models, and phylogeny

C. Germain-Aubrey, J. Allen, K. Neubig, L. Majure, R. Abbott, R. Guralnick, J. M. Ponciano, D. Soltis, P. Soltis

Today, 2050, 2080

Florida Plant PhylogenyIncludes:

239 families (100% of FL)1336 genera (96% of FL)2587 species (63% of FL)

Modeling the Distribution of Species

• Location information and environmental data• Software to model the range of each species• Project onto future climate conditions• For Florida plants:– >1500 plant species (of 4200 species)– >511,000 georeferenced points – Environmental features: temperature, precipitation, soil, etc.

now 2050

now 2050

Abildgaardia ovata (flatspike sedge)

Prunus geniculata (scrub plum)

Responses to Climate Change: Winners & Losers

Florida Plant Diversity Now

High species diversity

Low species diversity

Field

Museum

Research Lab

Teaching ModuleObjectives• To use niche modeling as an example of how natural history collections are utilized by scientists.• To show students the applications of niche modeling, such as climate change and urbanization.• To familiarize students with the programs used to generate the models and the logic behind how those programs work.• To gain a better appreciation of the factors impacting the distribution of biodiversity today and in the future.

Focal Concepts

Skills Developed

Skills and access needed

Audience/Duration

Assessment

Future Directions• Add a phylogenetic context: Basic understanding of tree building, including parsimony and characters• The role of DNA in phylogenetic analysis, and the possible contribution of museum specimens in this process

• Introduction – Pam• Museum specimens & locality data – Ryan• iDigBio & Notes from Nature – Shawn• Georeferencing – Blaine • Ecological Niche Modeling – Charlotte • Tying to phylogeny – Doug • Discussion & Wrap-up

Overview of Day’s Activities

Using Museum Specimens and Computer Models in Biodiversity Studies

• Herbaria important sources of information on past and present species distributions

• Location information and environmental data– temperature, precipitation, soil

• Software to model the range of each species

• Project onto future climate conditions

• >2700 plant species (of 4200) >511,000 plant location records Calhoun County

www.idigbio.org

National center for digitization of biodiversity collectionsCollaboration among FLMNH, Engineering, & FSU: ~$12MCoordinate digitization and databasing of US collections

Ingest, serve, integrate data:Localities

DatesImages

134 institutionsin 49 statesTen TCNS and collaborating institutions: 152 institutions in 50 states

HUB

Georeferencing• Assigns geographic coordinates to locality data• Allows data from previous collection events to be

displayed on digital maps• Allows researchers to: – visualize the spatial and temporal intensity of scientific

collecting activity– examine species distributions– develop predictive models of species habitat use– use natural history data to address important scientific

and societal needs such as conservation, environmental restoration, and preparing for global climate change

Elements of a niche taxonomy

SpaceLocal

Requirements areconditions,

resources andinteractors

Geographic

Requirements aremostly conditions

Scenopoeticvariables

Mostly Impacts

Elton (1927) rolesOdling-Smee (1996)niche construction

Role ofImpacts and

Requirements

Requirements andImpacts

Hutchinson (1957),Mac Arthur, May,

Vandermeer, 1970s...competition niche.

Chase andLeibold (2003)

ecological niches

Whittaker, Levin& Root (1973)

Ecotopes

Role ofImpacts and

Requirements

Mostlyrequirements

Grinnell (2007),Jackson and Overpeck

(2000)Grinnellian niches

J. Soberon

Modeling the Distribution of Species

• Location information and environmental data• Software to model the range of each species• Project onto future climate conditions• For Florida plants:– >2700 plant species (of 4200 species)– >511,000 georeferenced points – Environmental features: temperature, precipitation, soil, etc.

• 8:30 Introduction – Pam• 9:00 Museum specimens & locality data – Ryan• 9:15 iDigBio & Notes from Nature – Shawn• 9:30 Georeferencing – Blaine • 9:45 Ecological Niche Modeling – Charlotte • 10:00 Break• 10:15 Ecological Niche Modeling Step by Step• 12:30 Lunch• 1:00 Tying to phylogeny – Doug • Discussion & Wrap-up – all

Overview of Day’s Activities

Between Now and 2050…

# spp 2050 - #spp now

• Panhandle species moving NORTH!

• Peninsula species moving SOUTH!

Sea Level Rise by 2050

4m