What are ecological footprints?

• Ecological footprints measure the extent to which humans are using the Earth’s bioproductive capacity

• Units are global hectares– A hectare of land with “average bio-

productive capacity (for agriculture, forest, nutrient cycling, energy production, etc.)

– A hectare = 2.5 acres(1 acre is about a football field between the 5 yard lines)(1 hectare is 2 complete football fields with endzones)

Ecological Footprint

From Living Planet Report 2008, World Wildlife Fund, 2008.

Ecological footprints measure Earth’s carrying capacity for humans

• In 2010, the biosphere had about 11.5 billion hectares of biologically productive surface (about 1/4 of the total planet)– 2 billion ha of ocean (the continental shelves)– 9.5 billion ha of land

• Current estimates indicate that humans are over-shooting the Earth’s carrying capacity by 25-50%– To sustain the current carrying capacity, we could

need 11/2 Earths!– But, population growth and increasing development

means that we are increasing our use of Earth’s carrying-capacity (bio-capacity)

From Living Planet Report 2008, World Wildlife Fund, 2008.

With respect to sustainability of the human endeavor, population growth rate and population size are only part of the picture: per capita consumption is the other

Developed countries have very large ecological footprints

Ecological Footprints (Hectares per person)

Ecological Footprint by Region

From Living Planet Report 2008, World Wildlife Fund, 2008.

United States Ecological Footprint By Component

Biocapacity varies somewhat over time because of technology, agricultural practices (such as fertilizer use and irrigation), ecosystem degradation

Mexico’s Footprint by Component

Mexico

• Mexico has moved from using only 1/3 of its biocapacity in 1961 to nearly 1 ½ times its own biocapacity in 2002

Calculate your own ecological footprint(Can you realistically reduce your footprint to 1 planet?)

So, where do we stand?

• There are 11.5 billion hectares of bio-productive land, and it is declining

• There are about 7 billion people, and increasing at about 1% per year

• There are currently 1 2/3 hectares per person, and most ecologists believe this is insufficient to support a significant quality of life for the average person on Earth

• If we continue down the path we are on, there will be less than 1 hectare per person by 2050

Sustainability ?

From Living Planet Report 2008, World Wildlife Fund, 2008.

Envisioning Solutions

• Former president Bill Clinton has argued that combating climate change doesn’t have to mean economic hardship (Clinton Initiative Topic)

• It could be the biggest development stimulus since World War II, creating millions of jobs and saving trillions of dollars in foreign fuel imports

• What are some of the strategies we have available?

9-20

Controlling Emissions is Cheap Compared to Climate Change

• A 2010 study by the Pew Trust estimates the cost of lost ecological services by 2100 • Costs included factors such as lost agricultural

productivity from drought, damage to infrastructure from flooding and storms, lost biological productivity, health costs from heat stress, and lost water supplies

• The Pew report found that climate change is likely to cost between $5 trillion and $90 trillion by 2100

• The Stern Review (2006) estimates a cost of only about 1% of global GDP to avoid the worst impacts of climate change

There Are Many Ways We Can Control Greenhouse Emissions

• We can reduce dependence on coal, which produces more CO2 per energy unit than any other fuel

• We could institute fees for selling fossil fuels–these would help fossil fuel prices represent their many hidden costs

• We can invest in new technologies and energy efficiency• We can institute emissions trading, by instituting a legal

cap on emissions, then allowing companies to buy and sell shares of that total cap (California’s AB-32 does this)

A Wedge Approach Involves Dissecting the Problem into Stepwise Solutions

• To avoid a doubling of atmospheric CO2 we need to reduce our annual carbon emissions by about 7 billion tons (=7 gigatons or GT) by 2060

• Scientists have divided these emissions into 14 “wedges”, each of which represents 1 GT of carbon emissions avoided in the year 2060

Local Initiatives Are Effective

• California has greatly reduced Carbon emisions by switching all coal burning power plants to natural gas (decreased CO2 by 30%) & switching to green energy production

• New Zealand Prime Minister Helen Clark pledged that her country will be the first to be “carbon neutral”

• Germany has reduced its CO2 emissions at least 10 percent by switching from coal to gas and by encouraging energy efficiency throughout society

• Denmark now gets 20% of its electricity from windmills

California: A long history of investing in clean power and energy efficiency

1974 2008

California is a model for efficiency

∆(2005)= 4,000kWh/yr= $400/capita

kWh/

pers

on

United States

California

Per Capita Electricity Sales (not including self-generation)

Energy Efficiency Strategies

• Flattening out the curve – yesterday– Decouple sales from revenues– eliminate disincentive

– Set and strengthen building and appliance standards

– Invest in utility energy efficiency programs

• Bending the curve downward– tomorrow– Strengthen incentives– “Decoupling Plus”

– Set long term goals to achieve durable, broad-based reductions

– Enhance strategic planning: work backwards from goals

– Improve branding, messaging and marketing

– Invest in workforce and research and development

• Accomplishing just half of these wedges could level off our emissions. Accomplishing all of them could return to levels well below those envisioned in the Kyoto protocol

Wedge Analysis

McKinsey, December 2007U.S. GHG Abatement Mapping Initiative

22 States Committed to Regional Carbon Markets (w/ an additional 8 “observing”)

Source: Pew Center

Products and the Environment

• At first glance, the relationship between products & our environment may seem clear,

BUT….

Let’s consider the simple French fry

• What are its connects to the environment?

• What impact does it have?

How did the fry get to the restaurant?

Producer

Distribution Center

Processing Plant

Suppliers

Bob’s Burger Shop

Truck

Truck

Truck

Truck

http://www.rprogress.org/

What impact did its journey have?

Producer

Distribution Center

Processing Plant

Suppliers

Bob’s Burger Shop

Truck

Truck

Truck

Truck

Fossil FuelsFossil Fuels

Freezer

Fertilizers

Pesticides

Machinery

Hydropower

Fossil Fuels

Machinery

Fossil Fuels

Packaging

Hydroflourocarbons

Irrigation

Hydropower

Freezer

Food waste

Machinery

Fossil Fuels

Fossil Fuels

Fossil Fuels

Hydroelectric dam

Fossil Fuels

Animal Feed

Irrigation

Seeds

http://www.rprogress.org/

What impact did these impacts have?

Runoff

AirPollution

SolidWaste

AirPollution Fossil Fuels

Fossil Fuels

Freezer

Fertilizers

Pesticides

Truck

Truck

Machinery

Hydropower

Truck

Fossil Fuels

Machinery

Fossil Fuels

Damage To Ozone

Packaging

Hydroflourocarbons

Irrigation

Hydropower

Freezer

Food waste

Machinery Producer

Distribution Center

Processing Plant

Suppliers

Fossil Fuels

Fossil Fuels

Fossil Fuels

Truck

Hydroelectric dam

Loss ofBiodiversity

Fossil Fuels

Animal Feed

Loss ofBiodiversity

Irrigation

Seeds

Fossil Fuels

Bob’s Burger Shop

AirPollution

http://www.rprogress.org/

How might all of this affect the Earth’s systems?

Runoff

AirPollution

SolidWaste

AirPollution Fossil Fuels

Fossil Fuels

Freezer

Fertilizers

Pesticides

Truck

Truck

Machinery

Hydropower

Truck

Fossil Fuels

Machinery

Fossil Fuels

Damage To Ozone

Packaging

Hydroflourocarbons

Forests

Irrigation

Forests Built-up Land

Grazing Land

Forests

River

Cropland

Hydropower

Freezer

Food waste

Machinery Producer

Distribution Center

Processing Plant

Suppliers

Bob’s Burger Shop

Fossil Fuels

Fossil Fuels

Fossil Fuels

Truck

Hydroelectric dam

Loss ofBiodiversity

Fossil Fuels

Built-up Land

Animal Feed

Loss ofBiodiversity Irrigation

Seeds

AirPollution

Forests

http://www.rprogress.org/

We’ve considered only the potato

• Consider all the other parts of your meal– the other foods– the utensils– the napkins– the condiments– the drinks…

• There are multiple environmental impacts involved in these as well